US Payroll figures?

grubs50

Active member
Apr 25, 2003
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#5
I just have this funny feeling that today's figures might not be as significant as they r being built up to be in the long term...................will probably move the market in a decisive direction today but i think it is how the figures move in subsequent months (probably over a period of at least 3 months) that would matter.
 

Rainmaker

Active member
Jun 19, 2003
197
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Milton Keynes
#6
As the figures for recent months have been disappointing, I think people are hoping that today's (revised) figures will show a reverse. The weekly numbers can be inaccurate, but these revised monthly numbers are more precise. There is a fear of a jobless recovery, just as consumer confidence is hitting a plateau. Without new non-farm jobs, this may not be much of a recovery.
 
May 26, 2003
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Scotland
#7
Rainmaker,

I think we have a real double-edged sword situation here.

As you suggest, a jobless recovery may seem problematic for the markets.

However, a strong recovery in the employment figures may also end the current low interest rate scenario. The Fed may feel that they might need to increase interest rates on 16th March to counteract any possible inflationary pressures caused by an increase in jobs.

I think we will have to see the figures come in almost bang in line with forecasts to see the market move up. (Only my opinion-have been known to be wrong on many occasions!)

For those of you who are intersted (and if you are trading any indices, not just US, you should be!), the median forecasts are...


Unemployment 5.6%
Hourly earnings $0.2%
Non farm payroll 130,000
consumer credit $5.00
 

Rainmaker

Active member
Jun 19, 2003
197
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Milton Keynes
#8
agree the number could be a double-edged sword, but i think this particular number has to surprise on the upside to counter recent disappointments. the current focus is on the election and i'm sure there'll be some pressure to defer interest rate rises until after the election. either way, it's going to be an exciting afternoon after such a dull morning!
 
May 26, 2003
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#9
Rainmaker,

Certainly hope you are right....I am long Dow!

I suspect there will be a knee-jerk reaction either way post the figure, but a reversal by time of close. Doesn't help being a Friday either!
 
Jan 3, 2004
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Nassau, Essex
#11
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 21,000 in February, far below Street expectations of 130,000, the Labor Department said Friday. The unemployment rate remained at 5.6 percent. January's payrolls were revised lower by 15,000 to 97,000. Economists expected February payrolls to rise 130,000, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch. Private-sector payrolls were flat in February, with government agencies accounting for 21,000 new jobs. Manufacturing lost 3,000 jobs. Services added 46,000 jobs, including 13,000 in retail. Temporary help services added 32,000 jobs. Average hours worked in the economy fell 0.1 percent. Average hourly wages rose 3 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $15.52. Wages are up 1.6 percent in the past 12 months.
 
May 26, 2003
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#15
How do so many highly paid economistsand analysts get it oh so wrong?....Maybe their names will be added to the unemplyment list next month!

The Dow will knee jerk into negative territoer, but will recover once they realise interest rates are safe medium-term.

Treasuries are stronger.