Bullish Bear - I think my comment comparing Tom to Lard JamJar was misinterpreted, I was only making reference to the fact that there are very few who try to "predict" publicly and lay themselves open to examination. I think its a very brave man that puts his thoughts in the public domain. No offence intended to anyone in particular.
Trader333 said:
Because I've spent 25 years living on oil rigs in the N Sea or Portakabins in the desert. I recently lost £400k in my divorce, so I thought "what the hell?".
Not that I'm bitter or anything!
Furthermore, and nothwithstanding the above, I have been fairly successful at what I do (till now).
I decided on a cautious start; I haven't lost money. I just haven't made any. I trade most days. Max daily gain 60 FTSE ticks, max loss 80 ticks.
I use E2T DA platform and VSA charting with a Tenfore quote feed. I chose VSA because it puts the pivot, R1, R2, S1, S2 etc across the charts. Whether that helps me or not, I'm unsure.
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The fact that you haven't lost money is brilliant! That puts you in the top 15% of traders (5% win, 10% break even, and 85% lose), and gives you a very sound foundation on which to build your skills so that you get into the 5% club. 
Hi Alistair,
Well join my club. I'm basically a break even trader still. But that doesn't worry me at the moment. I've moved to futures and made over 140 trades and I'm at break even. I regard that as a victory of sorts. I think people try to pretend they are raking in cash right from the beginning of their trading and maybe a very very few do. But the majority don't and we don't do people any favours by hiding or not making that reality more obvious.
I think you have the right approach.
Good luck
Well join my club. I'm basically a break even trader still. But that doesn't worry me at the moment. I've moved to futures and made over 140 trades and I'm at break even. I regard that as a victory of sorts. I think people try to pretend they are raking in cash right from the beginning of their trading and maybe a very very few do. But the majority don't and we don't do people any favours by hiding or not making that reality more obvious.
I think you have the right approach.
Good luck
Good morning,
I have attached a couple of charts that I have been working from over the last week. They are not 100% up to date, but they show what I saw last week. There was back then a potential for the Dow to rally up to the 61.8 % of the big range from last year. This level came in at 9345. The Dow printed 9352 at the high. For the Dax there was a possibility of the cash component to print a wave 5 which was equal in length/magnitude to wave 1. This level came in at 3312. The Dax printed a high of 3324. Both predictions came close enough to be very significant tops.
What this means is that the longer-term waves have satisfied upside targets. However, I can not get too bearish just yett just because we have seen a big downday in the US. It was long overdue and with the triple witching today there was bound to be some volatility.
I had 5 journalists on the phone last night that in a state of panic wanted to know when the market would turn up again. So for all extent and purposes the rally is done and dusted, but we could be range bound for the next week. When media people phone in a state of panic I am using that as a contrarian indicator.
I am working on the idea that the big mutual funds and portfolio managers will be unlikely sellers due to the month-end/quarter-end/year-end coming up at the end of this month. Therefore the expected course over the next days leading up to month end will be another attempt to rally back up. This could very well lead to a lower high by the 2nd July.
There are a lot of re-balancing buy-sell programs going on leading up to any quarter-end in the US. This essentially means that big stock indices like the Russell 2000/3000 are changing their components and weightings. This creates huge amount of buy-and sell programs on Wall Street due to the tracker funds. The conclusion will be that we will likely see sharp down days followed by sharp up-days over the next week. I will use those rallies to position myself short for a decline in July.
The financials like Lehman, JPM, Citigroup etc will most likely be the group that will lead the downside. What will be interesting is to see how this group performs after the Fed’s interest rate announcement next week. Incidentally the Fed meeting always marks a short-term change in trend, so if the pressure is on the market from now till Wednesday, we could see a rally from then on into month-end. Patience is the name of the game right now.
For today I will be inclined to scalp long if we get a hard down opening around 985. If the SP500 can get back above 998, there is a possibility of a trip back of to 1005.
The expected path had a brilliant morning in the US yesterday, and an absolute disaster towards the end of the day. I had expected a bounce at the end of the day, which we got, but it came from much much lower levels and much later than I expected.
I am essentially expecting to be in a choppy trading range for most of the day with a negative bias. From around 19:00 there will an attempt to push higher, which should materialise in the final hour into a good move. From next week I will print these predictions in chart form. That way the chart can do the talking.
I was criticised quite significantly last night on a chat board for doing these predictions. I am fully aware that I am sticking my neck out doing these predictions, and I am also fully aware that they are not 100% accurate, at the best of times. If you really could forecast the market to the minute, then I am sure the NASA would never have any funding problems, as they would have found the solution a long time ago. However, I have found a method to pinpoint turns and directions in the market. I am working on perfecting it all the time. Some days are fantastic. Other days are less so. However, the way I use this myself is that if I expect a bounce around mid-day, and I see the market making attempt to bounce mid-day it gives me more confidence to put on a position. The expected path is not my only timing signal, far from it.
Have a nice weekend
Helen, thank you for posting those charts...
good luck everyone with the expiration. I dont we get another fat finger mistake like 6 months ago in the FTSE, although it was rather funny, if you were on the right side of the market
Sun
I have attached a couple of charts that I have been working from over the last week. They are not 100% up to date, but they show what I saw last week. There was back then a potential for the Dow to rally up to the 61.8 % of the big range from last year. This level came in at 9345. The Dow printed 9352 at the high. For the Dax there was a possibility of the cash component to print a wave 5 which was equal in length/magnitude to wave 1. This level came in at 3312. The Dax printed a high of 3324. Both predictions came close enough to be very significant tops.
What this means is that the longer-term waves have satisfied upside targets. However, I can not get too bearish just yett just because we have seen a big downday in the US. It was long overdue and with the triple witching today there was bound to be some volatility.
I had 5 journalists on the phone last night that in a state of panic wanted to know when the market would turn up again. So for all extent and purposes the rally is done and dusted, but we could be range bound for the next week. When media people phone in a state of panic I am using that as a contrarian indicator.
I am working on the idea that the big mutual funds and portfolio managers will be unlikely sellers due to the month-end/quarter-end/year-end coming up at the end of this month. Therefore the expected course over the next days leading up to month end will be another attempt to rally back up. This could very well lead to a lower high by the 2nd July.
There are a lot of re-balancing buy-sell programs going on leading up to any quarter-end in the US. This essentially means that big stock indices like the Russell 2000/3000 are changing their components and weightings. This creates huge amount of buy-and sell programs on Wall Street due to the tracker funds. The conclusion will be that we will likely see sharp down days followed by sharp up-days over the next week. I will use those rallies to position myself short for a decline in July.
The financials like Lehman, JPM, Citigroup etc will most likely be the group that will lead the downside. What will be interesting is to see how this group performs after the Fed’s interest rate announcement next week. Incidentally the Fed meeting always marks a short-term change in trend, so if the pressure is on the market from now till Wednesday, we could see a rally from then on into month-end. Patience is the name of the game right now.
For today I will be inclined to scalp long if we get a hard down opening around 985. If the SP500 can get back above 998, there is a possibility of a trip back of to 1005.
The expected path had a brilliant morning in the US yesterday, and an absolute disaster towards the end of the day. I had expected a bounce at the end of the day, which we got, but it came from much much lower levels and much later than I expected.
I am essentially expecting to be in a choppy trading range for most of the day with a negative bias. From around 19:00 there will an attempt to push higher, which should materialise in the final hour into a good move. From next week I will print these predictions in chart form. That way the chart can do the talking.
I was criticised quite significantly last night on a chat board for doing these predictions. I am fully aware that I am sticking my neck out doing these predictions, and I am also fully aware that they are not 100% accurate, at the best of times. If you really could forecast the market to the minute, then I am sure the NASA would never have any funding problems, as they would have found the solution a long time ago. However, I have found a method to pinpoint turns and directions in the market. I am working on perfecting it all the time. Some days are fantastic. Other days are less so. However, the way I use this myself is that if I expect a bounce around mid-day, and I see the market making attempt to bounce mid-day it gives me more confidence to put on a position. The expected path is not my only timing signal, far from it.
Have a nice weekend
Helen, thank you for posting those charts...
good luck everyone with the expiration. I dont we get another fat finger mistake like 6 months ago in the FTSE, although it was rather funny, if you were on the right side of the market
Sun
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Hi Tom.
Okay, you nearly had me changing my mind. A good morning and a terrible afternoon as you said yourself.
I was impressed by the timing predictions of the morning and how they became tradeable significant moves, even if the time span and exit were off. To predict a turning point a couple of hours before is very good going. It is sod's law that going by the precision of the morning statement I traded your 6 o'clock move because my criteria and methodology matched your prediction for a while. Albeit a very short while, I then broke a couple of my trading rules and paid the price. The good thing is I got most of it back on the 7 o'clock move by doing the exact opposite of your prediction because I stuck to my own criteria and traded accordingly.
However, I am impressed that you got the timing of the tradeable volatility correct, and this I could work with. I would appreciate it if you could clue me in a bit on the methodology and point me in the general direction so I could do a bit of research on it.
I agree about the market lower high/turn coming up and for what it's worth said as much on another post on here last week. And at best it's a 50-50 of it coming off. If it does I'll be a few bob better off and not too out of pocket if I'm wrong.
But I went back ten years to see it. You appear to be looking forward. which is interesting... and more risky.
Am I a convert?
No. Nowhere even close. You did pick a hard week with triple witching/end quarter jumbling about, I had heard of you of course, but never read you. I try to ignore all plaudits as they invariably get more wrong than right, conveniently forget what they said before moving on to the next disaster leaving a trail of sad punters behind them. They are beginning to come out of the woodwork again and talk the market up.
Another good reason to short then.
I hope next week will be better for you. Time as ever...
Have a good weekend.
Okay, you nearly had me changing my mind. A good morning and a terrible afternoon as you said yourself.
I was impressed by the timing predictions of the morning and how they became tradeable significant moves, even if the time span and exit were off. To predict a turning point a couple of hours before is very good going. It is sod's law that going by the precision of the morning statement I traded your 6 o'clock move because my criteria and methodology matched your prediction for a while. Albeit a very short while, I then broke a couple of my trading rules and paid the price. The good thing is I got most of it back on the 7 o'clock move by doing the exact opposite of your prediction because I stuck to my own criteria and traded accordingly.
However, I am impressed that you got the timing of the tradeable volatility correct, and this I could work with. I would appreciate it if you could clue me in a bit on the methodology and point me in the general direction so I could do a bit of research on it.
I agree about the market lower high/turn coming up and for what it's worth said as much on another post on here last week. And at best it's a 50-50 of it coming off. If it does I'll be a few bob better off and not too out of pocket if I'm wrong.
But I went back ten years to see it. You appear to be looking forward. which is interesting... and more risky.
Am I a convert?
No. Nowhere even close. You did pick a hard week with triple witching/end quarter jumbling about, I had heard of you of course, but never read you. I try to ignore all plaudits as they invariably get more wrong than right, conveniently forget what they said before moving on to the next disaster leaving a trail of sad punters behind them. They are beginning to come out of the woodwork again and talk the market up.
Another good reason to short then.
I hope next week will be better for you. Time as ever...
Have a good weekend.
temporarilylight
Established member
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What site is that from bonsai??. Oh, and Tom, keep up the commentary. Makes interesting reading.
temp
temp
Options,
appreciate your well-written comment.
I hope you know I am not really out to get any applause or the like. What I do like is to push myself as far as I can. This means sticking the neck out...
I appreaciate that you try to find an excuse for me ( hard week being option expiration ) but in reality this has got nothing to do with what week or what day it is. I am moving into what the methology is all about, and I really dont want to do that. I get asked about clues and I say look above. But if I say anymore I feel as if I am ginving something away that I have spent so many hours, days, etc to unveil. I don't want to shroud it in "mystic Meg" cloud but it will nevertheless appear that way, I admit.
I have had some really good runs, and then I go cold ( or "it" goes cold)
I dont know YET why that is. If I did Option, I would be the richest man in the world. And I would probably be banned from trading!!!!
I hope you will at least just have a look it, but dont let it disturb your trading.
This rotation way of trading is good, but it is not 100%. I don't think anything is.
have a great weekend
appreciate your well-written comment.
I hope you know I am not really out to get any applause or the like. What I do like is to push myself as far as I can. This means sticking the neck out...
I appreaciate that you try to find an excuse for me ( hard week being option expiration ) but in reality this has got nothing to do with what week or what day it is. I am moving into what the methology is all about, and I really dont want to do that. I get asked about clues and I say look above. But if I say anymore I feel as if I am ginving something away that I have spent so many hours, days, etc to unveil. I don't want to shroud it in "mystic Meg" cloud but it will nevertheless appear that way, I admit.
I have had some really good runs, and then I go cold ( or "it" goes cold)
I dont know YET why that is. If I did Option, I would be the richest man in the world. And I would probably be banned from trading!!!!
I hope you will at least just have a look it, but dont let it disturb your trading.
This rotation way of trading is good, but it is not 100%. I don't think anything is.
have a great weekend
Thanks for the swift reply Tom. As a trader I understand where you are coming from, and the hard (and long) work required to get past the barriers.
I know a trader who would only trade under planetary influence. Most people laughed at him when he told them his method. So he stopped talking and carried on trading his way. He retired to the sunshine at a very early age. He told me a bit about his trading but revealed he was too embarrassed to tell me too much.
Point is he found something that worked for him and stuck with it.
I like to think I have an open mind, (apart from guru's) about most things, even if they do come from the most unlikeliest source.
If I can get ten points from dancing naked on my desk. throwing salt over my left shoulder while turning round in a circle, then that's what I'll do.
A fair bit has been written on outside market influences, but you generally need a code book to decipher most of it. (I do anyway.)
I was cynical of your motives when you first came on. After all I thought, why would someone from a sb company bother to come on and start to tell us which way the market was going. Your posts this week have alleviated some of that feeling.
Good fortune
I know a trader who would only trade under planetary influence. Most people laughed at him when he told them his method. So he stopped talking and carried on trading his way. He retired to the sunshine at a very early age. He told me a bit about his trading but revealed he was too embarrassed to tell me too much.
Point is he found something that worked for him and stuck with it.
I like to think I have an open mind, (apart from guru's) about most things, even if they do come from the most unlikeliest source.
If I can get ten points from dancing naked on my desk. throwing salt over my left shoulder while turning round in a circle, then that's what I'll do.
A fair bit has been written on outside market influences, but you generally need a code book to decipher most of it. (I do anyway.)
I was cynical of your motives when you first came on. After all I thought, why would someone from a sb company bother to come on and start to tell us which way the market was going. Your posts this week have alleviated some of that feeling.
Good fortune
well Option,
i understand your "fear" of the SB companies. As I keep saying, you can trade with whoever makes you happy. I will promote my own company when it is required, but I will wont do it on a bulletin board. I have too much self-respect for that. Being a spread better myself I get annyoed with...wel, you know already what I am getting at, requotes, websites down at crucial time etc etc.....
I would like to comment on dancing on tables: I have found that it does create a nice atmosphere in the office dancing naked, but the cleaning company complained about the mess, and the boss told me in a very clear way that he saw no diffence on my overall bottom line result on my prop account...The girls found it extremely entertaining, but it did put off some of the prospective clients visiting the floor. My girlfriend was not at all amused....so my table dancing days are over, too brief a career if you ask me))))
i understand your "fear" of the SB companies. As I keep saying, you can trade with whoever makes you happy. I will promote my own company when it is required, but I will wont do it on a bulletin board. I have too much self-respect for that. Being a spread better myself I get annyoed with...wel, you know already what I am getting at, requotes, websites down at crucial time etc etc.....
I would like to comment on dancing on tables: I have found that it does create a nice atmosphere in the office dancing naked, but the cleaning company complained about the mess, and the boss told me in a very clear way that he saw no diffence on my overall bottom line result on my prop account...The girls found it extremely entertaining, but it did put off some of the prospective clients visiting the floor. My girlfriend was not at all amused....so my table dancing days are over, too brief a career if you ask me
))))That is from a long running data mining thread on ADVFN. There is also another system around based on end of day data. I'm aware of both but listen to none. I have no faith in either but the former claims I beleive to be complete bull. I have been around around the boards since very early esi and seen a lot of this crap before.
I have worked hard on my trading since I started 8 years ago and am a full time trader having been a director with IBM. There aren't many people's opinions I value but having met Tom and followed his work I can say I have never known anyone who has worked so hard on a system and is, in the main, so good with his calls.
Keep it up mate.
I was pointed to this board by a friend and the author of this thread, I think you will like it:
http://www.trade2win.co.uk/boards/showthread.php?s=&threadid=5223&highlight=
a+typical+day
I have worked hard on my trading since I started 8 years ago and am a full time trader having been a director with IBM. There aren't many people's opinions I value but having met Tom and followed his work I can say I have never known anyone who has worked so hard on a system and is, in the main, so good with his calls.
Keep it up mate.
I was pointed to this board by a friend and the author of this thread, I think you will like it:
http://www.trade2win.co.uk/boards/showthread.php?s=&threadid=5223&highlight=
a+typical+day
