Oscillation against Trend

Grey1

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we have discussed this many time on this BB ,, I think members still have problem so I thought to contribute some thing .

Before we go further , I too can be wrong no matter how many years experience i have behind me ,, so please understand that no one on this planet has the crystal ball and no one is correct all the time,, you really must understand this otherwise you keep looking for the rest of your life for the holy grail .

Tell tale signs are.

1) IF MACCI 5 min move from OB to OS how many points did INDU fall ,, if not many then the market is strong,
2) IF MACCI 5 min gets OB do you immediately get a SPIKE,, if yes then odds are that market is strong .
3) if MACCI 30 min and 10 min are getting OS then market gains strength.
4) if all European are in positive then the odds are that US closes in positive too.
The most obvious strong day nearly always INITIALLY sells off and it has to because all human have 2 legs 2 hands and same mind so the market gets flooded and market plays it weak to flush the WEAK HANDS .

5) Donot move in too early ... if you want to go long make sure you have back up , your back up is 30 and 10 min OS and 1 min trending up/ of course this is ideal set up but most traders donot wait for ideal set up . ( like myself and some times pay a hefty price too ) .

6) donot underestimate the power of 10 min indu .
7) end of a trend is often signaled by a SPIKE,,, in fact it is the second spike from high of the day which signals the end of the trend.
8) if market gapped up but went below LOW of the day then you are guaranteed the market will sell off later. ( and visa versa) This is important
9) if 30 min , 10 min , 5 min all heading different directions then the odds are NO ONE knows what is going on ,, trading under such circumstances is like playing roulette.
so wait for confirmation . This is the whole concept of multi time frame analysis .

we are going through a difficult times due to excess news attacking the market,, some news have the power of de railing the market. try to understand this and stop blaming your strategy or your analysis,, just accept it as fact of this business.

Grey1
 
good post.. i am with you I still make many mistakes but have more wins then losses so I am at a profit for the year so far.

not position sizing and doubling down which is my weakness still.. I nimble on OS stocks and make out most of the time.
 
Grey1,

hope you don't mind asking a few questions (just to get it straight in my head)


Tell tale signs are.

2) IF MACCI 5 min gets OB do you immediately get a SPIKE,, if yes then odds are that market is strong .


are you talking about a spike up or down here?


7) end of a trend is often signaled by a SPIKE,,, in fact it is the second spike from high of the day which signals the end of the trend.


are you talking about a spike in the direction of the trend on against the direction of the trend here?


4) if all European are in positive then the odds are that US closes in positive too.
The most obvious strong day nearly always INITIALLY sells off and it has to because all human have 2 legs 2 hands and same mind so the market gets flooded and market plays it weak to flush the WEAK HANDS .


the European markets yesterday were up by the time the US opened (I did not look at this yesterday, big mistake)

I will check the european's from now on before US open.

Capture.JPG


8) if market gapped up but went below LOW of the day then you are guaranteed the market will sell off later. ( and visa versa) This is important

If this was applied to the market yesterday should we have been look for a sell off in the afternoon session (was yesterday just one of those days were it didn't work out, or I'm I just reading your point No.8 wrong?)

I'm guessing we shouldn't have been looking for a sell off as the europeans were up/strong?

Capture1.JPG


thanks
Glen
 
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Iraj,
Regarding point number 1 looking at the daily macci a fall from ob to os end of feb to 1st week in march shows approx fall of 1000 points,the eqivilant fall on the daily macci from 1st week in april to 2nd week shows a fall of approx 500 points.Does this imply near term market strength on the dailys. Am i reading this correctly ?

Regards
Graham
 

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Grey1,

hope you don't mind asking a few questions (just to get it straight in my head)





are you talking about a spike up or down here?





are you talking about a spike in the direction of the trend on against the direction of the trend here?





the European markets yesterday were up by the time the US opened (I did not look at this yesterday, big mistake)

I will check the european's from now on before US open.

View attachment 35429




If this was applied to the market yesterday should we have been look for a sell off in the afternoon session (was yesterday just one of those days were it didn't work out, or I'm I just reading your point No.8 wrong?)

I'm guessing we shouldn't have been looking for a sell off as the europeans were up/strong?

View attachment 35428


thanks
Glen

Question1 spike up
Question2 In the direction of the trend,,, Momentum runs out with one final spike. so if you want to know if the momentum is exhausted look for 3 break out and one final SPIKE.. this is the most common sign
Question 3 the only reason for market commigb back was the leak of INTC results into the market , We knew about this and this was widely anticipated.. if INTC result was bad then you would probably seeing a gap down to day
 
Iraj,
Regarding point number 1 looking at the daily macci a fall from ob to os end of feb to 1st week in march shows approx fall of 1000 points,the eqivilant fall on the daily macci from 1st week in april to 2nd week shows a fall of approx 500 points.Does this imply near term market strength on the dailys. Am i reading this correctly ?

Regards
Graham

could not agree more,, I think we came to the end of bear market 2 weeks ago. the GE story was just a one off. I think the market from here will move up ward as all the fundamentally bad news is priced in the current DOW Value..

I will be opening a LONG portfolio soon

Grey1
 
Question1 spike up

Question2 In the direction of the trend,,, Momentum runs out with one final spike. so if you want to know if the momentum is exhausted look for 3 break out and one final SPIKE.. this is the most common sign

hi Grey1

I've read through this bit again and I'm not sure if I'm getting it (into my tiny little brain)

''IF the 5min (macci) gets OB do you immediately get a SPIKE (spike up),, if yes then odds are that market is strong''

''end of a trend is often signaled by a SPIKE,,,''

''In the direction of the trend,,, Momentum runs out with one final spike. so if you want to know if the momentum is exhausted look for 3 break out and one final SPIKE.. this is the most common sign''

sorry if i'm not picking this up great. But if the 5min macci goes OB and there's a spike up, is this a possible sign that the market is strong or that the trend might be exhausted and may reverse?

cheers
belflan
 
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