clylbw said:
What I would like to ask is:
1. I feel I still need to refine my RR strategy. How may I do so?
2. Did I make some mistakes in assuming the 3 bars as staged bottoms?
Many thanks indeed.
clylbw,
So, the meat of the two big moves of the day and you are still giving yourself a hard time?
(just kidding).
My two bobs worth fwiw.
1) Previous congestion at D meant that where your staged bottoms were was always going to be tricky. But if youv'e held all the way down then I assume you are playing for a break of that low from the 10th. As long as you keeping bringing your stops down to swing highs, i.e. A, then B, then C then there is just too much air below D to not hold for the potential failure.
2) You could, I suppose have got out at the volume climax around G. In R:R terms though you might as well hold on and just manage it tightly since the reward is still ????? i.e. all the air below.
3) Sagging tops, flat bottoms at D (very different from the sagging bottom/flat tops from the other day) was another chance to get in for a test of G (providing that you can get in BEFORE the breakout of the flat bottom level. (say at E). Reasonable R:R. Enter at E, Risk to F, Target G.
4) You're out at G. Can't argue with that with that volume climax.
5) F was crucial. Skim and Ford weren't the only ones that got out there (or before that in some cases....
). The bar preceding F corresponded with a push up through 1082 on the ES that had them all running for the exit The high volume on F clearly suggested a reversal and the end of the 3rd push or 5th wave (clearer on ES I grant you).
6) Once it's retraced and then pushed back up through F the reward is potentially at H (where you entered your first trade). So providing you move your stops up to J, then K, the L then the R:R stays acceptable. Obviously you realise this, but if you don't move your stops once F is breached then the R:R no longer adds up on the trade, i.e. risking to 1380 with the market at 1395 with a target of 1410-15 is non-sensical.
7) Once you get to M it gets dodgy. Your reward is potentially at N but where are you risking to? If you are risking to L then the trade doesn't add up. However, one trick is to risk to 50% of the large bar at M. Even then the trade is borderline. I reckon your assessment was right, you know people have to get out before the close and after a bar like that at M it's unlikely to reach N anyway. Only worth holding (imo) if you are going to hold overnight.
