'No indicators' revisited

[china white]

no worries mate - just remember your broker is NOT your friend!!!

another thing 4 u 2 keep in mind: PATS is a great trading platform indeed, BUT there is one major thing about it - unlike IB, every night it wipes the slate clean so to speak, so if u left a position overn8, u'll see 0 exposure next morning, and if u r nor disciplined, u'll think u r flat, even tho u r NOT!!!! just be careful mate

 

[ford]

Summer time contraction in volatility.

Any tips on dealing with the summer? Pickings for trades have been pretty slim today and yesterday, it reminds me of last summer.

Maybe switch to higher time frame and start holding trades overnight? Take <x> ticks/pts when you have them?

 

[Finirama]

Hey Ford,

I know wot you mean....yesterday was a nightmare and all the big points of late have been the gaps.

I was thinking of doubling my contracts, taking x points and letting the rest run overnight with stop @ breakeven??

 

[TheBramble]

Although these last few posts aren't anything to do with 'No Indicators' I do see a trend towards 'No Discipline'.

If you're trading your system and the market slows (for whatever reason), you don't change your system - you simply slow down too - and trade less. Until the market's ready to give you some more money.

One of the biggest mistakes a trader can make is to amplify smaller than usual market returns by increasing their risk.

 

[Finirama]

Thanks for input Bramble and point taken, though abit peed in the way it was put.

So in response here is my current trade and why.

Bar 2 (blue), although pushes higher, closes below the high of bar 1 (orange) giving a heads up that move is coming to an end. The following confirms a failure swing by opening and closing below bar 2 marking an entry, for me at least, with a stop above bar 2.

Just closed as looks like the end of a 5 move down so closed.

In at 1105.4 and out at 1101.9

 

[TheBramble]

Thanks for input Bramble and point taken, though abit peed in the way it was put.

Fin - I'm struggling to understand why you might have been annoyed?

 

[Finirama]

No matter Bramble...just me being stroppy...and i certainly do not intend to cause any mis feeling between fellow traders.

i know the posts are not directly linked to trading without indicators but no harm in looking for advice...especially if the person asking started the thread.

Would be interested in your thoughts on my trade entry....valid or not?? and also if you have made any trades 2day along with entries/exits?

 

[BBB]

If your market is doing nothing - try another that is. There's plenty of them, and if your method is robust you should be able to apply it to others fairly easily..

 

[Finirama]

Yeah...i think is time that i broaden my horizons

 

[ford]

Although these last few posts aren't anything to do with 'No Indicators' I do see a trend towards 'No Discipline'.

If you're trading your system and the market slows (for whatever reason), you don't change your system - you simply slow down too - and trade less. Until the market's ready to give you some more money.

One of the biggest mistakes a trader can make is to amplify smaller than usual market returns by increasing their risk.

I dont disagree with your comments, to the contrary, I very much agree. However if days like yesterday, which appear to be a summer seasonal market thing continue, then I dont think it hurts to stand back and modify your trading strategy to cope with these changes.

These only need to be slight changes, for instance being able to identify the slow markets and tell yourself that it is infact slow and acknowledge it. Knowing the characteristics of the summer season market, the cyclical aspects of the markets when there will likely be money to be made (i.e. the morning, last 2 hours, news releases, whatever!), scratching trades faster than before (giving the market less time to move on your act of placing the trade) and so on.

A few pages back I posted about not trading when volume is below 4.5k contracts per 5 minute bar. This served well yesterday with one exception, the morning was choppy despite the volume consistantly above 4.5k. This is where I got cut up, so being able to avoid that in the future will be helpful

 

[Finirama]

Wot a day...totally buzzin..got back in doji break at 1101. Closed for the day...Is that end of wave 5??

 

[ford]

Looks like 3 pushes to me on the 10 minute! :cheesy:

No breach of the high of the 10 minute bars on my charts yet, but it looks like the 3rd push none the less.

 

[ford]

Interesting.. looks like we may close at or near the low of the day. Quite often when that happens the following day is an up day, but today looks like a gap and trap. No idea which one will play out though, dont suppose it matters much to us.

 

[Finirama]

Yeah, also a gap at 83-84 which looks inviting.

Here is bar rhythm today...i use these often when trading the FTSE when is trending.

 

[ford]

Thats nifty.. usually I check whether the pull back is near the same magnitude of the last. On ES where you've put 7 bar both pull backs were near enough the same, 2.5 and 3 pts - same goes with pullbacks 1 and 2 of the 3 pushes down.

I notice that your Cash chart doesnt show the double top at 1104, which would have been a less riskier entry point than the break of the doji, incase you had to scratch the trade. But who is complaining?

 

[Finirama]

Ford,

Do you use just the 10 min chart to trade?

 

[ford]

No it's mainly 5 minute, but when theres a trend cranking it up another 5 minutes to 10 helps me survive through the pullbacks. Only 1 bar in that downtrend on the 10 minute had it's high broken (on my charts) by a single tick. Pretty easy to trail a stop.

thanks goes to Skimbleshanks for that tip.

 

[Finirama]

Skim is a legend for sure.

At wot points do you move the stops? Is it after the previous low of the 10 min bar to broken or after the current 10 min bar is complete?

 

[clylbw]

Tailing stops and setting targets?

Finally, there were actions today. BTW, Ford, I think you rightly said that Monday and Tuesday's actions were lull before the storm. :cheesy:

Back to today's NQ. After going short at the 14:00pm 5-minute bar, as highlighted by the blue line on the 5-minute chart, I trailed my stop along the trend. So towards the end of the 15:30pm 10-minute bar, I moved the stop at the top of that bar. Then the next 10-minute bar, indicated by the orange line in the 10-minute chart, ticked just above the previous bar's top to trigger my stop before collapsing into a new low. I wonder whether I had wrongly set the stop so I got stopped out just before the big move?

Secondly, I wonder how would you set your target(s) if you had entered as I did, at the 14:00pm 5-minute bar? I must admit my technique is rather lacking in this aspect; I only used today's intraday low as the target. Certainly there are more sophisticated ways for setting targets?

Thanks indeed.

 

[ford]

Finirama,

I work on the basis of trailing the stop once we roll over into a new bar, regardless of whether it breaks the high or low.

The amount of leeway you give it regarding the position of the stop depends on the momentum of the move I think. For instance today, the first impulse down was quite large that you could lock in decent profit while giving it enough room to run. Maybe Skimbleshanks can clarify, she might have a better method.