NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! TheRumpledOne

[pierre23]

Why does it need "improving"? Today with the normal setup - checking for a decent hourly range, trading with the candle colour and determining where price is going - I've already made +31pips in 26mins spread over 4 out of 4 winning trades. You don't NEED to only have a tp of 5.. if you can see price is continueing in a certain direction, and the H1 and even D1 are in your favor too, go for more. Or use different techniques to gain more pips (eg. open an order, when it hits 5pip profit close half of the order - and set the rest for a trailing sl). This is ridiculously easy, you're all making it harder than it is when you try and add things to it.

EDIT: well, I just lost 20pips from carelessness. I was typing this post while I had a trade open - bad idea. Not worried though, I'm 100% sure I'll get it back. Just a lesson, when you trade don't let anything distract you, especially if you have an open order - ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN.

 

[Brabed]

UKTraderGirl,

Don't take this the wrong way, I'm trying to help you. Maybe you should devote as much time to improving your own trading as you do trying to prove someone else's strategy is wrong. Not knocking your trading abilities, I just know that all traders' first priority should be to improve their trading, there's always more to learn. In fact, I know nothing about how you trade because all of your posts I have seen are either critical or smart ass views of what other people are doing. Just thinking out loud here.

What is your motivation for disproving TRO's tools? Please answer that question honestly. What does it do for you?

How much time do you estimate you've spent in posting on this thread? Could this time be spent in better ways? Again just thinking out loud....

B

 

[TheRumpledOne]

UKTraderGirl,

Don't take this the wrong way, I'm trying to help you. Maybe you should devote as much time to improving your own trading as you do trying to prove someone else's strategy is wrong. Not knocking your trading abilities, I just know that all traders' first priority should be to improve their trading, there's always more to learn. In fact, I know nothing about how you trade because all of your posts I have seen are either critical or smart ass views of what other people are doing. Just thinking out loud here.

What is your motivation for disproving TRO's tools? Please answer that question honestly. What does it do for you?

How much time do you estimate you've spent in posting on this thread? Could this time be spent in better ways? Again just thinking out loud....

B

It's easier to focus on someone else rather than yourself.

It's easier to bash someone else instead of working on yourself.

It's easier to boost your ego by tearing down someone else or their work instead of promoting your own work.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

Using what we know...

After 3 or more like colored H1 candles in a row, look for a reversal. Statistics.

Use the Buy Zone to enter the trade. Statistics.

Take the pips when you can. Common trading sense.

 

[Brabed]

It's easier to focus on someone else rather than yourself.

It's easier to bash someone else instead of working on yourself.

It's easier to boost your ego by tearing down someone else or their work instead of promoting your own work.

Amen, and I see way too much of this type of behavior. I don't spend much time posting on forums, as my post count dictates, but when I see crap like this, I can't bite my tongue any longer.

I don't use your strats, TRO, but it seems like you are presenting tools to use to see what is happening with the market. Your strats aren't the be all, end all, but eyeglasses with which to see the market, I'm with you. Like I say, keep doing what you're doing.

How are things in the 'Old Pueblo'? I'm in Scottsdale.

B

 

[TheRumpledOne]

Amen, and I see way too much of this type of behavior. I don't spend much time posting on forums, as my post count dictates, but when I see crap like this, I can't bite my tongue any longer.

I don't use your strats, TRO, but it seems like you are presenting tools to use to see what is happening with the market. Your strats aren't the be all, end all, but eyeglasses with which to see the market, I'm with you. Like I say, keep doing what you're doing.

How are things in the 'Old Pueblo'? I'm in Scottsdale.

B

Old Pueblo still the same.

What strats do you use?

 

[TheRumpledOne]

Took a while.. but another winning trade.

 

[new_trader]

I am of the school that the entry is more important simply because if your entry NEVER gives you the opportunity to TAKE PROFIT then all the exit does is minimize the damage.

Well TRO, I never thought I'd ever be giving you a rep, but this comment deserved it.

 

[jfgao]

Well, you keep asking questions that I have answered so I thought that maybe if I repeated myself several times in one post, it just might stick with you!!

Stats are based on how many times the price goes X pips past the horizontal line price divided by the number of times price touches the horizontal line. That's why I know I can grab 3 - 5 pips just about every time price hits 00, 25, 50, 75...

I also know that statistically once a price goes 7 pips past a price, it will usually continue in the same direction for a while before it returns to that price.

We also know that after 3 or more like colored H1 candles, the chances of a reversal increases dramatically. My buddy, Chip, has even broken it down by the hour so we know which reverse trades are even more likely to be profitable.

These are the things I want people to SEE when they look at charts.

Exit correctly? There is no correct/incorrect... only profitable/unprofitable.

Thanks for being polite, UKtradergirl.

I'm gonna give this a try. 3 consecutive H1 candles, watch for a reversal, limit positions at trigger lines <00, 25, 50, 75>, TP 6 pips. Since you mentioned of a dramatically increased probability of momentum taking charge if 7+ directional pips are registered, I'll probably use the 80/20 rule and hold a 20% residual at risk for the potential windfall.

Just to be sure: trading is on the M5 right? Cos I'm a lousy scalper with an incredibly poor track record using anything less than 5 minute bars. I usually do 5-15 minutes (using the M15 as an intermediate directional guide) and concurrently getting feedback from H1,3 and Daily charts.

What I'm doing ATM: shorting USDJPY and then shorting EURUSD to an equivalent extent using whatever correlation there is between the cross pairs to hedge against adverse movements (not really a cross since USD != EUR, but anyway...). This is also a low pippage strategy which requires high volume to generate sizable income. I on the other hand am happy enough with crumbs as long as I still get to keep the loaf. What's your take on synthetic spot hedging?

Oh, and I hope you do realize that if this doesn't pan out, I'll be out bustin' skulls (your's most likely).

Seriously though, thanks for the freebie heads up.

 

[JTrader]

NEVER LOSE AGAIN!!

My TREND INDICATOR - NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! thread was the most widely viewed thread in TradeStation history. I believe it still holds the record for the most number of views. I have decided to "revive" it again.

So what? who gives a s***?
I would suggest this - number of views "record" - is due to the misleading and unrealistic thread title. Everyone likes to dream the impossible dream.
If i posted a thread entitled "BEYONCE - BARES ALL!!!", and then posted 1 post per day, without actually posting any "BEYONCE - BARES ALL!!!" photos or links at all, i bet this would soon become the most viewed thread. People would continue to view it, after each new post. They would know that i hadn't posted any juicy material, nor probably that i had any intention to do so either! However, in their minds, there would remain the remotest of possibilities, that eventually, i JUST MIGHT post some juicy "BEYONCE - BARES ALL!!!" material.....every new post i made, would continue to draw back all of the mugs.....

The bottom line is you don't have to end the day, week, month, or year in the red. You can be profitable. You may not win every trade but you will be profitable.

I know most of you have read about money management, risk management, position sizing, stops, etc... So then what are the reason(s) you are still losing? Is the market beating you? Are your stops being hunting? Or are you simply giving your money away?

When you enter the TRADING JUNGLE, you are up against the best traders in the world. They are smarter, faster, have more money, have better equipment, better access to information... better everything than you do! What makes you believe you can win? What "edge" are you bringing to the table that will allow you to take their money? Don't you know the game is "rigged" against you just like in Vegas?

And you have the answer? right? You will show me how, against impossible odds, i can still come out on top in this "rigged" game?

I would suggest that when trading OTC spot forex at least, i am not "up against" anyone.
I cannot influence the price movements myself.
My job is to try and figure out what those people that move the price are doing, how and why, and do my best, to follow them.
Maybe when trading an exchange traded product, i am in direct competition with another trader - in theory, but even then, their (the actual "traders"/robots that move price) volumes are so big, and my volumes are so small, that what i do is largely irrelevent. My job is still to try and follow the market movers/price action as close as i can, by first figuring out the likely game plan.
For the record, i know that your horizontal lines, etc etc do not do this in any remotely close way!!!



What's the reason you see some currency pairs move over a 100 pips a day yet you're happy barely breaking even? What makes trading so difficult for you? What are you doing?

I know you have read about having a trading plan, haven't you? Do you have one? Come on, be honest... DO YOU REALLY HAVE A TRADING PLAN?

You do not present a trading plan anywhere in this thread. You even state yu are not offering a system (get out clause).
Yet i am supposed to buy into the idea that you will show me how to "NEVER LOSE AGAIN!!!"

If you do, DO YOU REALLY TRADE ACCORDING TO YOUR PLAN? Come on now, it's time to FESS UP.

What about all those trading books, tapes, videos, and seminars? Ever wonder why there are so many? I just ONE had the answer, then wouldn't it go "viral" and everybody would be trading that method? THINK ABOUT IT.

Yes, the trading world is full of gurus, sharks & other supposed experts, only too happy to do anything besides trade themselves, but only too willing to pass on their sacred knowledge to the masses (for a few hundred/thousand £$€ of course!). People who we are meant to believe trade for a living, but they spend so much of their time, posting on, advertising on, and getting banned from so many trading forums - we wonder - how on earth do they actually find the time to trade???

What about all those indicators, EAs, blackboxes, trading signals and systems for sale? If one of them worked wouldn't it go "viral", too?

These are cowards trying to make a fast $ by selling their "expertise" and crown jewels, instead of putting their money on the line and trading these holy graail systems for themselves, and making a small fortune in the process.....why??? because they know deep down, no matter how good the backtest results etc. etc. that the results are skewed and their system will not work in reality!!!

I have posted hundreds of FREE INDICATORS for TradeStation, eSignal and MetaTrader. Why? Because I can! I don't like seeing people pay hundreds and thousands of dollars for code, most of which, doesn't work or is way overpriced, IMHO. If you check me out, you'll see I have been banned from many forums. My FREE indicators are a THREAT to their cashflow. My free education materials also threaten their cashflow. Just do the math.

Yes Avery you are no doubt an excellent programmer. For that i congratulate you - well done!!
However, excellent programmer does not equal excellent trader, in any shape or form.
Many trading programmers dont know anything about the markets, they just code the instructions that are sent to them.
You have created a plethora of indicators, most of which (up until last year) i have on my PC funnily enough.
For me, many look/sound innovative, original, colourful and appealing - GRIDIRON, SLOT MACHINE, DYNAMIC S/R, DYNAMIC FIBS, DYNAMIC PIVOTS etc. but when you look at them in detail, they are confusing, have too much information going on at the same time, and ultimately extremely difficult to see how anyone could use that indicator alone to consistently make a profit.
However, i am not aware of one single indicator of yours (or anyone else really), that when used in a certain way, with a certain pattern/setup, will make me an overall consistent profit, or provide me with a good reason to enter long or short at any time, in relation to what price is actually doing!!
If i am wrong, please prove this by posting multiple screenshots with detailed instructions of how the indicator/s should be used.

I have been accused of "renaming" indicators. Yes, I rename them AFTER I enhance them because if I post a modified version with the exact same name as the original then it gets "stepped on" and any good programmer knows better than to step on code. But I post my revised/enhanced/fixed version FOR FREE on the same site I downloaded them from. So where's the crime? Some people let their egos get in the way.

No crime.

I have been accused of SPAMMING because I am an IB for MB Trading. Before I was an IB, I didn't even know what an IB was. The reason I am an IB was because when I found out that there is NO FIXED SPREAD in Forex, I immediately opened an account with EFX Group and posted about it everywhere I could. That had the effect of bringing EFX more customers. As a THANK YOU, they made me an IB. And it got me banned from sites that had FIXED SPREAD BROKERS as advertisers.

You also send out spam to people who join your yahoo group. Advertising your 1-2 systems that you are still trying to flog, 2 years on, with limited licenses to 1000 people for $500 each, if my memory serves me correctly. Users can unsubscribe from these emails, i know i did.

Whenever MONEY is involved, it is a DOG EAT DOG, EAT CAT TOO jungle. The sooner you learn that fact the better.

Or, a shark eat human world....

The goal of this thread is to show you how to NEVER LOSE AGAIN. Trading is simple. People traded long before there were computers and indicators. So why do you have so many computers and indicators?

Exactly??? knowing this, why have you even bothered to create all the hundreds of dazzling indicators that you have????? in such a production line fashion?????
If the threads goal is to show readers how to "NEVER LOSE AGAIN", please do so. But 99 pages in, many readers still seem as unsure as they did on page 1......

Do you really know how the market operates? Or do you just know how to place an order? What have you gotten yourself into? THINK ABOUT IT!

The market is driven by demand and supply. This causes areas of support and resistance. These areas are plain to see on a blank chart. Simple.
Your horizontal lines 3 pips past the hourly open price, or at 00,25,50 & 75 levels, see 3 hourly up candles in a row etc. etc. in no way addresses this.



Never Lose Again!!



TradeStation deleted the TREND INDICATOR - NEVER LOSE AGAIN thread which was the most widely viewed thread in TradeStation history. Fortunately, the thread was retrieved from the google cache.

TREND INDICATOR - NEVER LOSE AGAIN

hallelujah!! Praise the Lord!!!! Thank goodness for the "Google cache" :clap::clap::clap: ....Not
If my memory serves me correctly, you were banned from tradestationworld due to the fact that - yes, you were posting indicators for free, but within the code you were also posting a short message similar to -
Gifts and donations accepted via paypal. Avery T ........, AKA TheRumpledOne, PO Box ....., Tucson, Arizona

RapidShare: Easy Filehosting





TREND INDICATOR - NEVER LOSE AGAIN ELD files

RapidShare: Easy Filehosting






TO BE CONTINUED...

TRO is having a laugh on these threads of his. He is posting screenshots of supposed winning trades & indicators that he knows no one understands, and he seems very reluctant to explain, all these numbers, different pairs, different timeframes, different colours, three in a row, 5 in a row, entry lines, price action hidden in too big a timeframe candle, numerical dials and displays that need to be viewed in realtime and do not have any history as with a traditional indicator like RSI............what a bloody mess!


TRO mate
I and others on this thread may be completely wrong, you may be a sterling fella, with everyones best interests at heart, and with the sole aim of freely helping novice traders progress. 99 pages into this thread however, and none of the shortfalls of you method that have been continually highlighted, have been properly addresses or overcome :!::!::!:

However, if this is the case, and your sole aim is to help newbies become profitable, all from the goodness of your heart and soul -
1) I apologise for misinterpreting your intentions.
2) i would suggest that you change, improve, make clearer your method of presentation.
Tone down the gimmicky word usage.
Don't just post M1 screenshots like we all asked for on the extra-ordinary days that suit your message - i.e. when price went up 300 pips in a straight line in 1 hour - of course your method worked well in such conditions - any method would!!! etc. etc.
3) Go and look at the quieter, subtler threads started by other T2W members where the intention has been to freely share knowledge in a gimmick free and humble way, and you SHOULD see what i mean.

Your methods seem very much based on your "the statistics". This may be a good thing. However, it may also be a bad thing because -
1) Only you have them, we do not even know if they really exist. Whe have to trust your word that they do, and what you tell us about the statistics is actually true.
2) Statistics and numerical rader type displays do not present themselves well in charts or screenshots of charts. Due to the fact that we can only see the moment, and not any history.
3) I beleive you said in you paltalk room, many months back, again if memory serves me correctly, that the statisitics that you and Mikeal Kreslik compiled are too valuble a resource to share/give away for free, buut you were thinking about releasing them on a subscription basis.........

All the best, friend.
:clover:

 

[BSD]

Very well said J, super post !

As I wrote elsewhere:

Bottom line:

If any of this worked TRO would be trading it live on Oanda and posting screenshots of actual entries and exits every single day rather than wasting his and our time here, inundating us with pretty woulda-coulda-shoulda charts in endless, repetitive threads.

Wafflers eternally waffle trying to impress clueless, easily impressible newbies with nothing than hot air, while real achievers work on establishing or honing real track records.

It's always the same in con games:

Those who can put up proof, those who can't waffle their heads off instead.

BS talks and Money walks.

 

[north5]

OK, so far I haven't offered much critique to this system. I shall try and do so now. I built the EA because it gives people the option of trying it for themselves if they were willing to investigate.

So whilst I maintain that this approach could be a good first learning step, it is far too random to be a system worth developing.

So whilst it may help develop an understanding of price action it IS NOT a system based on price action. You may wonder why I say that - but it's clear this system is built on candle formations. A candle has an arbitary start point and end point giving you an arbitary timeslice of the price action.

So for example - in this case you enter if a candle is green/red. Well in this case you may be taking an entry after 3 minutes, 30 minutes or 59 minutes into a H1 candle. Therefore the price action you are observing on these three entries is different.

I notice talk of 3 bar reversals too. Again the same logic applies. Because the candle is arbitary then 3 bars as a signal is also arbitary. Change the candles to start at 3 miutes past the hour instead of on the hour and you will get different signals. If you want to see how poor a signal this is - stick a Heiken Ashi over your candles. These smooth the candles out - how many 3 bar reversals do you see now?

 

[JTrader]

BTW -

TRO, and all fellow US citizens

Happy Thanksgiving

:clap::clover:

 

[zupcon]

UKTraderGirl,

Don't take this the wrong way, I'm trying to help you. Maybe you should devote as much time to improving your own trading as you do trying to prove someone else's strategy is wrong. Not knocking your trading abilities, I just know that all traders' first priority should be to improve their trading, there's always more to learn. In fact, I know nothing about how you trade because all of your posts I have seen are either critical or smart ass views of what other people are doing. Just thinking out loud here.

What is your motivation for disproving TRO's tools? Please answer that question honestly. What does it do for you?

How much time do you estimate you've spent in posting on this thread? Could this time be spent in better ways? Again just thinking out loud....

B

Perhaps you should also complain to the site's admin for the inappropriate "Term of the Day" item that he's so prominantly displaying on the home page of this site.

Snake oil - Traderpedia

I particularly liked the this bit of the article "Unfortunately, most "trading system" vendors are quacks who's only profitable system is the system they use of selling "systems" to unwitting traders."

Trying to disprove "strategies" can be educational, I highly recommend it. Pointing out the activities of known spammers is the forum equivelent of picking up litter in your neighbourhood, not a pleasant experience, but if everyone does it, it just makes the place a that little bit more pleasant. If I want to read garbage, I'll pop across to kreslik.com

 

[Warren Forex]

A Personal Message For JTrader

The purpose of this post is two fold. One to tell you that I appreciate the time and energy that you took in a very non combative way to make your points or ask for additional information from Avery. As I said in my first post here that I know Avery.

I am not taking sides if there really is a side to take. Since I myself trade through the method called by INO as FTP (Fundamentals + Technicals + Perception)

I have been involved in trading forex for over 5 years now. I have learned much through first demo trading. I traded demo only from September 2003 until March 2006 learning my trade. I have traded small amounts and large amounts. Large being in excess of $125,000 in real funds. I am a private trader and accredited as a IB with a Canadian and American firm.

I have posted on other FX forums and because of my excellent record of success I have run into similar situations such as Avery has.

The reason has been made clear by other posters. Many I am sure unsuccessful traders seem to have this bad habit of knocking others, putting them down and the like.

Your post was definitely not in that cateogory.

I enjoy helping traders improve and succeed in forex. It is widely claimed that 95% of ALL FX traders lose. Whatever the %, It is my personal STRONG opinion based on my results that purely technical traders cannot WIN consistently. This is not say the can't however the odds are stacked against them.

I read somewhere thay the majority of ALL FX traders are technical traders and putting my own percentage on it of 75%, that would in some ways make my point.

75% of 95% is the point.

I post this since I would be interested in how you see my post and if I may ask from your experience how do you find the best way to trade FX ?

I have had many many winning accounts where I have doubled the account in 60 days. and also some accounts where I had margin calls because I put on too many positions and or allowed too much of a drawdown before taking a loss.

I trade using the FTP method and do not overtrade anymore, use a maximum STOP LOSS of 100 PIPS. I never trade more than 25% of the funds in any one account that I manage and I trade with the trend.

My technical indicators are BB, EMA and SAR on Top. I use MACD, RSI and CCI and I use the 1 minute and five minute charts. I take my profits when I can not being too greedy.

I know that unless you have your FEAR,GREED and EGO under control NO METHOD will work. You need a Trade Plan and as Important as Entry is, you also need to know your exit plan.

Trading Real Funds I once went 673 FX winning trades in a row using my methods trading mainly USD/JPY during 2007. I win about 90% of ALL my FX trades and I trade in blocks of 100K

I know there will be most saying BS, however I also know if I offered to send my PFG file using the FX Solutions platform to prove my representations of the 673 FX wins in a row, then 99% would rather not see it since they would rather sooth their EGO by knocking rather than by keeping an open mind.

Just to add some helpful input on present day trading I have had good success since the MELTDOWN during August 2008 when Trichet spoke and the EUR/USD started down from 1.6000 !

I trade USD/CAD short and EUR/USD long or short by using the present day correlation with the Dow.

For example if the Dow would go DOWN say 300 points you will see USD/CAD go UP !

Fundamentally I can explain why if anyone is interested. I watch Oil, Gold and the Yield on the 2 Year and 10 Year US Bonds to SEE the Money Flow.

Please let me have your feedback on my post and GOOD TRADING !!!

 

[JTrader]

Warren, there's not a lot i can say....

You ask me how i trade. I have already said multiple times - i trade price - what is happening - based on S/R and candlestick patterns.

I cannot really comment on your trading. Your method is your method. Without looking into it further, it is foreign to me. Your record sounds good though.

 

[BSD]

I have had many many winning accounts where I have doubled the account in 60 days.

Trading Real Funds I once went 673 FX winning trades in a row using my methods trading mainly USD/JPY during 2007. I win about 90% of ALL my FX trades and I trade in blocks of 100K

J don't even bother responding to such a TOTAL whacko haha or let yourself be drawn into some imbecilic non-conversation.



What a goon.

Crikey, it really seems like the silly season is on us with a vengeance.

Funny thing is ALL these mental cases are great at bragging but inevitably like all woullda-coulda-shoulda con artists can never back anything up let alone trade live.

Pathetic internet posturers who collectively couldn't trade their way out of a paper bag if their lives depended on it.

 

[BSD]

I am a private trader and accredited as a IB with a Canadian and American firm.

Even better. What a loser, working as an introducing broker. Can anybody think of a dumber or worse job ?!?

Just like TRO eh.

Pulling in fresh meat with their roundturn churning non-strategies that achieve only one thing, divert money from the gullible to the broker at high speeds.



Heck if this were my site here I think some of these money destroying snake oil salemen posting absolutely NOTHING but INCESSANT crap they are VEHEMENTLY not willing to PROVE should be banned.

 

[rols]

J don't even bother responding to such a TOTAL whacko haha or let yourself be drawn into some imbecilic non-conversation.



What a goon.

Crikey, it really seems like the silly season is on us with a vengeance.

Funny thing is ALL these mental cases are great at bragging but inevitably like all woullda-coulda-shoulda con artists can never back anything up let alone trade live.

Pathetic internet posturers who collectively couldn't trade their way out of a paper bag if their lives depended on it.

Oooch

WarrenForex can be seen in all his glory over on ForexFactory

I wouldn't recommend going over there, except for a quick laugh - it's more of a kindergarden than this place (I know such a thing doesn't seem possible - but it is)

The majority of the posts are along these lines

I feel it's going up
Why did it just go down?
It can't go down anymore so I'm going long
Time to pile in
Time to bail out
Oh dear I've just lost my shirt/wife/house/dog/underpants/plastic dinosaur collection
Oh no I haven't, for a moment I thought we were all trading with real money PHEW!
Got to go now, mummy wants to use the computer.....

 

[zupcon]

Heck if this were my site here I think some of these money destroying snake oil salemen posting absolutely NOTHING but INCESSANT crap they are VEHEMENTLY not willing to PROVE should be banned.

Agreed, but they generate traffic so its not really in the sites interest to act in a responsible way. To the credit of most trading sites out there, the activities of this particular bunch of vendors has been curtailed long ago.