my journal 3

Yes, you're welcome.

----

I am still upset about that guy not saying "hi" to me in the hallway. It's really frustrating, because I've had a humiliating bringing up by my father, who made me very insecure, so I cannot take any criticism. It bothers me very much anything going wrong in my life. It makes me really frustrated. I am very sensitive to anything not going my way -- that's why i've had so many problems with trading.

By the way, I have started another quick short on NQ.

So now I have 9 positions open, including these last 2 on CAD and NQ.

In the meanwhile I'm watching a movie, "Magic Magic", advised by this awesome list:
http://www.filmtv.it/film/migliori/anno-2013/

Of the many many "best movies" lists that I've found, this is the only decent one, while all the others really suck, including the ones from Rotten Tomatoes.
 
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Ok, the day is almost over.

I am more or less where I was yesterday.

I can longer hope that the equity line will keep rising forever. At least for tomorrow it will not.

So, time to stop looking at my positions, in order not to get frustrated.

I am done with trading for the day and I should definitely stop for a few weeks.

I even incurred a small loss on NQ, a warning to stop, because I am losing the emotional balance. I got cocky, expected to never lose, and that's when disasters happen.

Now it would be best if I started to go to the movies again. I mean it would be best to stay away from a computer.


Life is without meaning, despite these songs and these movies.

 
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Yup, just woke up and closed my short on NQ in advance, right here:

View attachment 171832

Something tells me that today we will stop the fall and resume rising. You know why?

Well, partly because when we have a profit, we're afraid to lose it, especially if it was a loss for a while.

But partly because I know that at about 8 AM (Central European Time) there's a reversal in all markets, and since NQ has been falling up to now, most likely it will start rising.

And partly because GBL looks set to start falling , and when that happens, NQ rises usually.

Well, anyway, I closed my NQ short and made 600 dollars. Better than nothing for an impromptu trade.


Last few days of the equity line of my account = equity line of my mood:

View attachment 171830

The only way you know this is real is the second and fourth day, when it is not as regular. Otherwise it looks too perfect and regular to be real.

Beautiful, yeah, and yet I am lower than I was when I started this series of trades... it must have been about August of last year.

If this line keeps going at this rate, by the end of next week I should be above 45k, considering a little more than 1k per day. So I'd be profitable relative to when I started these trades.

told you so:

esigchartspon.png

GBL, too:

esigchartspon2.png
 
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Whether frustrated about my tinnitus, or about people who frustrate me at work, or taxi drivers... here's what I really have to worry about right now: not interfering with what's coming to me. Oh yeah, and what's coming to me? The world, chico, and everything in it.


In other words, my positions, chico, are great positions. They are going to bring me, in my estimates, 10k to 40k in the next month.

Even 10k would be enough to resume trading my systems, while still keeping the positions. But most likely within one month I will have at least 20k.

Now what I typically do in a situation like this, is I get excited and I keep it from happening. How?

It's not exactly self-sabotage, but here's the chronological steps:

1) I see success close to happening.
2) I enjoy monitoring the rising equity line and looking at my trades on TWS
3) I get used to a rising equity line and start relying on it
4) while continuously monitoring the markets, I spot a profitable opportunity (cfr. my recent trades on NQ and CAD)
5) one of the "profitable opportunities" I spot turns out to be unprofitable.
6) given all my expectation of a rising equity line, I don't take it so well, and I double up on the losing position.
7) the loss gets bigger and I don't have any capital left to double up, so I figure I'll "momentarily" close all my other positions, and add more contracts to the losing position
8) whether I recover the loss or not is not important (usually I'll break even, because, after being so scared, I'll close as soon as I recover from the loss), because all my other positions in the meanwhile would have produced great profits.

To avoid this very likely scenario, the only way is to stay away from my laptop, because if I stay at home, given all this excitement from all this profit (doubling my capital in just 2 weeks, cfr previous posts), and given that I never have anything else to do at home (I don't even like to watch TV), I will, for sure, turn my laptop on, turn my remote connection on, and monitor my TWS, and then place that fatal trade.

So, see you in a month, see you in 30k of profit, see you at about 70k of capital, see you at a weekly profit of about 2k, see you at a weekly profit above my monthly salary, see you at a weekly profit that to me is equivalent to "F.U." money.

From now for the next 4 weeks, I must stop writing here, I must stop doing anything on the web except turning my systems on, once a day.

I don't even have any roll over concerns, because all my futures either have longer expirations or can expire without any problems (IB will close those positions).

From now for the next 4 weeks, I must go from work straight to the movie theater, swimming pool, or similar. Anything that will keep me from home until 8 pm. At which point, the danger is almost over.

I've done this before, for several months, so I can do it again. See you in a month.
 
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Back, exactly a month later. Din't make any FU money but was rather told FU by the markets.

Exactly what I had feared took place, just as described in my previous post, a month ago:

...
4) while continuously monitoring the markets, I spot a profitable opportunity (cfr. my recent trades on NQ and CAD)
5) one of the "profitable opportunities" I spot turns out to be unprofitable.
6) given all my expectation of a rising equity line, I don't take it so well, and I double up on the losing position.
7) the loss gets bigger and I don't have any capital left to double up, so I figure I'll "momentarily" close all my other positions, and add more contracts to the losing position
...

I had about 10 different positions, perfect diversification.

Here's what I did. One of them showed me a loss. I doubled up. Then it kept falling, then, when I didn't have any more margin, I closed everything else, and having totally lost control (in fact I lost control when I doubled up), I opened all the contracts I could in my losing position.

Not that my ten diversified positions would have made much money and taken me above 46k. In fact they would have taken me lower, to about 35k or so.

But the problem is that now I am even lower than that, in fact I am 10k lower and might be headed for disaster, given that I have all my eggs in one basket. I am not going to tell you which one position I am in. I am too frustrated right now.

Might post or might not post for another six months. I just stopped by to let you know that I was wrong in my hopes and at the same right in my fears.

...

The key to my problems is that, despite wanting to stay away from my trading platform, I still had to restart my systems once a day, and so this forced me to peek at my positions. Or rather it tempted me on a daily basis.

I am now devising a method so I only have to start my systems once a week (with IB Gateway) - provided that I'll have any money left at the end of this ordeal. Right now, needless to say, I am not willing to exit my existing position at a loss (which is the reason I am into this mess to begin with). I'll probably be willing to exit it at breakeven, just as predicted, because having been so scared, I'll be happy to get away with my huge mistake. But this also shows that I took a huge risk in order to seize zero profit, but merely to avoid seeing a loss of 1000 dollars on my account (when, instead of closing that position and accepting that loss, I doubled up).

But for a complete view of the situation, it must be mentioned that I did this type of thing (doubling up on losing positions) at least 3 times in the last 2 months, and that I got away with it until this last time. So it wouldn't be fair to say that this method is sheer stupidity and that I keep doing it. One keeps doing it, because the majority of times it works, but then you get screwed completely the minority of times when it doesn't work. Overall it's a disaster, but, since most of the times it works, you're very very tempted to use it (aka martingale).


in my fantasies, what I like to dream about is this: I get lucky and get away this time, too. I see my capital of 46k again, and then... then I get back into my old positions once again, at a cheaper price. I'd get back into them one at a time, starting with the cheaper ones.

Then they keep rising...

And then i resume trading my systems.

And, always in my dreams, all this would happen in just 2 weeks, in the next 2 weeks.

...

Slight tinnitus still there, but it either decreased or I got used it. The fact is that I am only thinking about it a few times a day, if even that much. Maybe there has even been one day when I didn't think about it. Big change compared to a month ago.

And, definitely, not all my hearing came back. Well, since I am not going to kill myself... so what I am going to do - I'll have to get used to it.

Let's just be happy that i am not in school and I don't have to do any homework anymore.
 
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Sail on Silver Girl,
Sail on by
Your time has come to shine
All your dreams are on their way

He's talking about my silver trade. I hope he's right.
 
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going from starting the systems once a day to starting them once a week

The ongoing trades didn't wipe me out after all, and I am almost back to my highest level of capital of 46k. That bet was very very unhealthy, but the markets went my way and I got away once again.

So, since I still have a capital, I have been working on my effort to automate my systems so I can start them just once a week (cfr. post from a week ago), rather than every day. This will help me to avoid hanging around TWS too often, and being tempted each time. This feat is almost complete. I've been working on doing it on excel, given that my systems run on TWS in conjunction with excel, via DDE.

The last part I needed to work on is creating a macro that tells me via email if everything is going OK, so I don't have to open a VNC / Teamviewer session to the server, and check how they're doing and be tempted, once again, several times a day. Which still wouldn't be as bad as before, because I am now using IB Gateway, which doesn't have any menus to view charts, quotes, although it does of course allow you to place orders via the excel workbook (or the systems couldn't send them either).

So, 1) I have achieved that I don't have to run them every day, 2) I have achieved that I am not seeing TWS anymore, but just IB Gateway, and now 3) I have also achieved that I can get notified via email, so I can be serene. But even more, now 4) I have achieved that I will get notified via sms, so if I am on vacation, I don't even have to start my computer to check on emails.

I will now show you all 4 achievements and how they work. It will take more than an hour, but I owe it to my ten readers for caring about my trading.

How I now run systems once a week with IB Gateway (achievements #1 and #2)

Going from IB TWS to IB Gateway
The first thing that needs to be said is dealing with the platform TWS, which turns itself off once a day. And I have an idea why IB didn't allow traders to turn it off. There are sloppy people who'd forget it on for days, needlessly, and that would be a useless waste to the community. There's 2 softwares that deal with this problem: IBController (light but very basic) and TWSStart (heavy but with more options), both excellent. But there's still the problem that TWS, running for days, could cause problems. Also, using one of those two applications, although excellent, will by itself increase the probability of problems (the more programs, the more potential problems). So I instead opted for running IB Gateway, which was meant for automated traders and doesn't turn itself off once a day, but never, and only returns the quotes and historical data which you request via DDE. So it's very light. Only problem is that old problem the Security Token being requested, for which reason I had to temporarily disable that security option, until they finally solve it again. I'll turn it back on in a few months. But for now this part of the problem is solved, as far as I am concerned, by going to IB Gateway, rather than using IB TWS with other programs that disabling its daily shut down.

Dealing with VBA's Application.OnTime method
The second thing that needs to be told is how my systems run and how I used excel to run them (which in turn influenced how they run). They only monitor prices every so often, and if prices are where they should be, the signal to trade is triggered. So most of my systems are time-based entries. If at a certain time of the day, prices are having a given behavior, then the trade is placed. For the few systems that don't exactly do this, I had VBA check where price repeatedly, at 15 minutes intervals, but even in this case, the price-checking is done for an interval that amounts to a few hours in total. The way I had VBA handle this whole thing (time-based and interval-based entries, and exits as well are all time-based) is through the Application.OnTime TimeValue method. Let's say I want to check price at 11 AM and then, depending on the price, trigger the trade or not. Then the code will be like this:
Code:
Application.OnTime TimeValue("11:01:00"), "hg.apertura_HG_ID_02"
This is the case, for real, with my HG second Intra-Day system, which has an interval of checking of price for a few hours around 11 AM (US CT). "Apertura" means "opening" in Italian. This is how I named the macro (VBA procedure) that checks price and, if conditions are there, triggers the trade.

So why did I say all this? Because my biggest and basically only problem in going from a daily start to a weekly start of the systems consisted of dealing with VBA's Application.OnTime TimeValue method. It is usually called "Application.OnTime" method, but I add the TimeValue because that's an important detail:
Code:
Application.OnTime TimeValue("11:01:00"), "hg.apertura_HG_ID_02"
In going from a daily start to a weekly start of my systems, the problem I discovered is that running the code "TimeValue("11:01:00")" will not mean that my procedure "hg.apertura_HG_ID_02" will be triggered every day at 11:01, but only in the first 11:01 excel comes across, whether today (if I start it before 11:01) or tomorrow (if I start it after 11:01).

Now this problem gets even more complex if you think that I am running in the same way the entries and exits for 120 systems. This means at least 240 OnTime events per day, but in fact more, because as I said I have systems that check price for several hours, every 15 minutes. Let's say I have even just 30 of these systems, and that they check price not once but 12 times, that is 11 extra times. That would be 30*11=330 extra OnTime events, on top of the 240 mentioned. So a total of 570 OnTime evens to deal with.

So let's recapitulate. I start my excel file, which triggers 570 OnTime events, to be executed in the next 24 hours. And that would be no problem if I ran my systems on a daily basis - and in fact I've been so meticulous that I haven't had any bugs or problems for years with this. But now, going to a weekly start, what were my options?

Well, in short, I had to place, as the 571st event, a timer for an extra event, to trigger all these 570 events all over again. A "loop" as they call it. And all these programmers on web sites are advising against using "loops", but I see no other options.

I do not trust programmers advising to cancel all (possible) extra events and then run all events again, because I am afraid that if I try cancelling 570 events, something might get away, for whatever reason (maybe excel is tired or busy with something else).

And, since I have a period of several hours when no events are scheduled, why not take advantage of that? I will seize that peaceful moment to start my excel file. So recapitulating, once a week, I run all 570 events, turning the file on before the first event is scheduled, and, as the last event, I insert an OnTime event that runs the macro again. It is a "loop" but I really see no possibility of it going wrong or having any unexpected side effects. The events cannot be postponed, cannot get away, cannot bounce back to me, and therefore it must be ok to run them again, in a loop, once they're all done.

So, here's the deal with my file. I open my excel file, "Private Sub Workbook_Open()" starts as soon as I open the workbook, because it's placed on the VBA module called "ThisWorkbook". In turn this procedure, along with running other procedures (which are only run once), runs this OnTime event once:
Code:
Application.OnTime Now() + TimeValue("00:02:45"), "schedule.schedule_systems"
By the way, here be sure to see the difference between "OnTime Now() + TimeValue..." and "OnTime TimeValue...". In this case the code says "run it now plus x minutes", whereas in my other 570 OnTime events, it says "run it at x time".

Then, once the procedure "schedule_systems" (placed in the module "schedule") runs (only once a week), in turn it starts my 571 OnTime events, the last one of which is this:
Code:
Application.OnTime TimeValue("15:48:00"), "schedule_systems"
This is a line, at 15:48 (US CT, which is the Time Zone on my server), that triggers the restart of the schedule_systems procedure, as I explained. Ok, so we're done with this part.

How I now get notified by excel via email, and then by sms (achievements #3 and #4)

However... with all this mess, or rather this magnificent and intricate machine, no matter how magnificent already, something could still go wrong, at least until I've been doing some debugging for the next few months.

So I want to make sure to be notified that everything is still running, several times a day, and I want to be notified of my margin, overnight margin, available balance, and balance.

Emails from excel
This is where I got the idea of being sent emails by excel.

So, basically I found this script on the web, customized it (see parts in red), scheduled it as an OnTime event (along with the other roughly 600 OnTime events) to be run every few hours, and there's nothing much else to add:
Code:
Sub email()    'weekly
    On Error Resume Next
    Const cdoSendUsingPickup = 1    'Send message using the local SMTP service pickup directory.
    Const cdoSendUsingPort = 2    'Send the message using the network (SMTP over the network).

    Const cdoAnonymous = 0    'Do not authenticate
    Const cdoBasic = 1    'basic (clear-text) authentication
    Const cdoNTLM = 2    'NTLM

    Set objMessage = CreateObject("CDO.Message")
    objMessage.Subject = [COLOR="red"]Format(Now(), "hh:mm") & ": r." & Format(s.Cells(29, 10), "hh:mm:ss") & ", m." & Format(s.Cells(21, 2), "##,##0") & ", ov.m." & Format(s.Cells(22, 2), "##,##0") & ", b." & Format(s.Cells(22, 4), "##,##0")[/COLOR]
    objMessage.From = [COLOR="red"]"<[email protected]>"[/COLOR]
    objMessage.To = [COLOR="red"]"[email protected]"    '1 sms alert, by vodafone email to vodafone cell[/COLOR]
    objMessage.Cc =[COLOR="red"] "[email protected]"    '2 sms alerts, by ifttt.com and google calendar to vodafone cell[/COLOR]
    objMessage.Bcc = [COLOR="red"]"[email protected]"    '2 sms alerts, by ifttt.com and google calendar to TIM cell[/COLOR]
    objMessage.TextBody = [COLOR="red"]"cfr. title"[/COLOR]

    '==This section provides the configuration information for the remote SMTP server.

    objMessage.Configuration.Fields.Item _
            ("http://schemas.microsoft.com/cdo/configuration/sendusing") = 2

    'Name or IP of Remote SMTP Server
    objMessage.Configuration.Fields.Item _
            ("http://schemas.microsoft.com/cdo/configuration/smtpserver") = [COLOR="Red"]"smtp.gmail.com"[/COLOR]

    'Type of authentication, NONE, Basic (Base64 encoded), NTLM
    objMessage.Configuration.Fields.Item _
            ("http://schemas.microsoft.com/cdo/configuration/smtpauthenticate") = cdoBasic

    'Your UserID on the SMTP server
    objMessage.Configuration.Fields.Item _
            ("http://schemas.microsoft.com/cdo/configuration/sendusername") = [COLOR="red"]"[email protected]"[/COLOR]

    'Your password on the SMTP server
    objMessage.Configuration.Fields.Item _
            ("http://schemas.microsoft.com/cdo/configuration/sendpassword") = [COLOR="Red"]"password"[/COLOR]

    'Server port (typically 25)
    objMessage.Configuration.Fields.Item _
            ("http://schemas.microsoft.com/cdo/configuration/smtpserverport") = [COLOR="red"]465[/COLOR]

    'Use SSL for the connection (False or True)
    objMessage.Configuration.Fields.Item _
            ("http://schemas.microsoft.com/cdo/configuration/smtpusessl") = True

    'Connection Timeout in seconds (the maximum time CDO will try to establish a connection to the SMTP server)
    objMessage.Configuration.Fields.Item _
            ("http://schemas.microsoft.com/cdo/configuration/smtpconnectiontimeout") = 10

    objMessage.Configuration.Fields.Update

    '==End remote SMTP server configuration section==

    objMessage.Send
End Sub

There's been a whole lot of customization to do, so if you use it, make sure to look carefully at all the parts in red.

In the body, I didn't write anything, because I don't want to waste time opening the emails. Everything is in the title: margin values, balances, and other useful things.


Receiving text messages on my cell phone for every email

As you can see from the code, I used 3 emails:

1) email_1 at gmail, as the sender and the first recipient
2) email_2 at gmail as the second recipient,
3) another email at vodafone

These 3 recipients would be useless, because emails always go through with the first gmail recipient, so the only reason I have two extra recipients in place is that I want to get notified via sms of the emails.

The most efficient one is... actually here is the summary of my tests:

Snap1.jpg

Sorry, some parts are in Italian.

So, in this intricate ordeal, I am using 3 emails and 2 cell phone subscriptions: a Vodafone cell phone, and a TIM (Italian provider) cell phone, for which I subscribed yesterday, precisely to test these text messages (it only cost me 5 euros - it is amazing how cheaply one can get a new phone number).

Ok, there are 3 methods I have found out so far, and I will list them in a descending order of efficiency:

1) SMS notification of email by email account with the cell phone provider method. Excel sends an email to my vodafone email account (which I got by subscribing to a vodafone cell phone card), which in turns sends me an sms (I turned sms notifications on) telling me I got an email and its title. This always works, and it always gets sent within 10 seconds of sending the email with excel. So it is unbeatable. So I guess I could stop here, but I went further, just to double-check things and tried 2 other methods, which turned out to be much worse, but interesting.

2) Google Calendar method. Excel sends an email to my gmail account, which is filtered and marked with a label (based on the sender) I created, which I called "SMS". Then, Google Calendar, acting on a script which I placed in Google Drive, sends me an sms telling me that I received an email which it found in the folder SMS. It is all described in detail and with the code here:
flowontech.blogspot.com/2013/04/how-to-get-sms-notification-for-emails.html
http://scornik.blogspot.com/2012/04/get-sms-notification-for-emails-at.html
https://sites.google.com/site/scriptsexamples/learn-by-example/other-examples/gmail-filter-sms

Don't try to go to the developers.google.com page link because it never works. They just removed it for good:
https://developers.google.com/apps-script/articles/gmail_filter_sms#section1*

Probably because they don't want to encourage people to be sent sms by google calendar.

Ok, so the problem with this are two:
1) with my tweaking of the various options and parameters (especially the options of Google Drive for the Google Apps script), I still haven't figured out a way to be sent just one text message, and I often get 2 of them. But it has nothing to do with how many times you click "run" on the script. The attached image is not updated with this information, but I've found that running the script 5 times on both, still resulted in one sms being sent (rather than 5). It probably has to do with how many times the email is seen before it gets removed from the folder, but I don't see how I can control that.
2) both my TIM and Vodafone cell phone providers don't like getting sent all these text messages by google, and after about 10 of these messages every 24 hours, they stop sending them to me, until the next day or so.

3) ifttt.com method. www.ifttt.com goes into my gmail and sends me a text message each time I received an email from a given sender. This method always works, and somehow my phone providers don't get tired of sending me their messages, maybe because they only send each message once, or maybe because they don't have a rule in place imposing a quota yet, like they definitely have for google (after the quota was exceeded for google, I still got message from yahoo and other internet sms). The only problem with this method is that messages take from (according to my tests) 4 to 25 minutes to reach my cell phone.

If you're interested, go to www.ifttt.com, get an account, and use this script:
https://ifttt.com/myrecipes/personal/8950446

This is the simplest method to implement, along with my Vodafone email notification via sms.

I will keep all 3 methods, but will only use them when I am on vacation.

To disable text messages, I will:
1) remove the second gmail and the vodafone email, by commenting them out in my vba code.
2) disable the rule on my ifttt.com for my first email account
3) disable the script on google drive, by commenting its content out.

When I am not on holiday, I will only receive the emails at my first gmail account, so I don't have to log in to my remote server and check if everything is working properly.
 
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Don't forget prospective plantings tomorrow, which will have the usual huge impact on the Wheat, Corn and Soybean markets.

I almost can't sleep for all the opportunities that could be seized next week in these markets I am hoping to get back into:
Wheat, Corn
CAD
Natural Gas, Oil

But I want them all to come back down a little bit, before I get back in them. I am expecting the biggest fall from Wheat and Corn, about 50 dollars less on each one (but wheat more). If they don't fall, I'll simply won't buy them. From CAD I just want it back at 0.89. About a 3% fall in natural gas and oil will be enough for me to get back in them, too.

If I can't buy any of these back, then it's just too bad. I have to start getting used to the fact that I can't will the markets to go anywhere.

---
[many hours later]

I was wrong on wheat and corn. They didn't fall at all, and when I sensed they wouldn't, about an hour before the report, I bought a contract of Corn, and got away with 1000 dollars of profit.

I also bought NG, which today was quite cheap, all things considered.

Now I am in six of my original 9 positions, before that famous disaster happened, whereby I sold everything and kept piling up contracts on my one losing position. As that losing position is making money, I am gradually selling it and buying back the original contracts. All in all, I must be down less than 10k compared to what I'd have had I kept everything without touching anything. I got lucky again. I could have been wiped out, had that losing position kept falling for just 2 more days. Such is the nature of martingale strategies and revenge trading.
 
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I am back into 7 of my 9 original positions. Only missing out on CAD and ZC (briefly held the other day) but I want to also add ZW this time.

By the way, here's my new index.html:
View attachment index.html

I bought chromecast, which is now available in Italy (since a few days ago) and it cost me only 35 euros, like for everyone in Europe.

It's a great deal for me, because i had precisely this situation: large flat screen tv in the living room, regular screens in my room, and android or windows operating systems in my computers. Oh, and it only works well for youtube videos. Which is also good, because I am often on youtube, also to watch full movies. If you have any other situations, it's almost useless: such as if you have ipad, iphone or a large screen attached directly to your computer - or if you don't care about watching youtube videos.
 
All problems regarding IB Gateway have been solved by updating the version. Watch out: the little application called "Check for TWS Updates" in your start menu is not reliable. It told me for months that I had the latest version, whereas I did not.

No more security token requests, after their servers reboot and no more "API Client: disconnected" (despite it working fine).

I am very satisfied.

The systems have been running for days, unattended. I got all the expected text messages on my systems status (from vodafone, google, and ifttt.com), which I now partly disabled, because I don't need them.

The gold and silver manipulators have struck again. Gold and silver just don't want to take off and keep staying at the same bottom for years...

If they're so worthless that the financial news ignore them or say they're not a good investment, then how come Germany asked for its gold back and barely got any of it shipped back, not even on time according to the expected seven year delivery schedule? And then why does it take Germany seven years to get its gold back when the US has taken custody of all Ukrainian gold in a few days?

http://www.globalresearch.ca/ukrain...cated-by-the-new-york-federal-reserve/5373446
...Later a returned call from a senior official of the former Ministry of Revenue reported that tonight, on the orders of one of the new leaders of Ukraine, the United States had taken custody of all the gold reserves in Ukraine.

Of course no mention of it in the news.

I guess the US has fast shipping on the way in, but not on the way out, when it comes to gold.

And maybe all these bull**** arab spring and government toppling going on in the world is nothing but an excuse for the US to step in and steal all the gold, like in Libya.
 
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here's my plans for the last 3 futures I am missing in my portfolio. I will buy them if they reach these levels, and keep them (1 contract for each one of them):

cad.png

zc.png

zw.png

The reason I can wait so patiently is that I simply do not have the margin to buy them right now. That's the best way to not have any regrets: being unable to make a trade. No other way works as well.

On the other hand, lately I've been finally learning to not rely on... "hindsight". In the past, my tendency has been to reproach myself for errors that could have been avoided, errors that I kept attributing to self-sabotage. Instead now I realize this is all bull****: if I make a trade, it's because I totally believe in it. If I avoid a trade, it is because I am afraid it will make me lose money. There is no way for me to know the future and so, although I have (or had) a tendency to blame myself needlessly, I should not think in terms of what I should have and could have done, but in terms of the small part of events that I was able to predict... based on the past. I am always doing my best. Although, of course your mind is also affected by revenge trading and other mistakes, but among the mistakes I can blame myself for, self-sabotage or subconscious self-sabotage is not one of them. So, basically I should stop blaming myself for not knowing the future.

Oh, look: my tendency to blame myself even has a name:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias
Hindsight bias, also known as the knew-it-all-along effect or creeping determinism, is the inclination, after an event has occurred, to see the event as having been predictable, despite there having been little or no objective basis for predicting it, prior to its occurrence.[1][2] It is a multifaceted phenomenon that can affect different stages of designs, processes, contexts, and situations.[3] Hindsight bias may cause memory distortion, where the recollection and reconstruction of content can lead to false theoretical outcomes. It has been suggested that the effect can cause extreme methodological problems while trying to analyze, understand, and interpret results in experimental studies. A basic example of the hindsight bias is when, after viewing the outcome of a potentially unforeseeable event, a person believes he or she "knew it all along". Such examples are present in the writings of historians describing outcomes of battles, physicians recalling clinical trials, and in judicial systems trying to attribute responsibility and predictability of accidents...

In fact that is one advantage of keeping a journal, like this entry for example. To remind myself that when I thought of these trades, especially if they won't work out, they looked so good. Just like NG or CL which I bought 3 days ago, and the next day I was telling myself "why couldn't I just way one day longer and buy them cheaper?". I guess I still suffer from... this thing called "hindsight bias", or blaming myself for not having a 20/20 hindsight.

A closely related concept is the expression "hindsight is 20/20" as interpreted and explained here:
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Hindsight is 20/20
Phrase used to describe the fact that it is easy for one to be knowledgable about an event after it has happened.

http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/hindsight_is_20/20
In hindsight things are obvious that were not obvious from the outset; one is able to evaluate past choices more clearly than at the time of the choice.

All the traders who, like me, spend years reading up on the psychology of trading and blaming themselves for "self-sabotage" and similar imaginary concepts should first of all really investigate and understand the "hindsight bias" conncept and how it "may cause memory distortion" (cfr. wikipedia entry, first link).
 
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What I blame my father for is the fact that he was always busy telling us about interests but never cared about what anyone wanted to say. If you talk to my father it's like talking to a wall. He shows no reaction in his face. It's really much better to write things in this journal. Much much better. Also, talking to my mother has always been a more satisfactory activity, although she is far less intelligent than him.

I've recently decided to stop trying getting any satisfaction out of my father. He'll never show any facial interest in what I have to say. He is indeed a piece of ****. That is the technical definition. A selfish piece of ****. His father died when he was six. I don't know if this means that you're going to feel entitled to all the attention by others and returning none, but he's still a selfish piece of ****, although he might have a license to be that way, due to his unpleasant childhood.

Another thing I wanted to say, which in fact I'll write here rather than say it to the wall, is that I am very satisfied that, after all these years, I finally devised something that works and that can run unattended for at least a week, and I suspect even indefinitely. I will find out this weekend, or rather: after this weekend.

Did I tell you -- I don't think so -- that I also found a way to automate the rolling over of the expiring contracts? Right.

I have changed lately, due to my health problems and the mourning about that family grief, but in reality I have always been and still am that person in my avatar. Observing life like I watch a movie:

avatar3052_5.jpg


This afternoon I went to the movies and watched "Divergent". Usual Hollywood crap, but the underlying ideas were good. A description of how Nazism could happen again, and it wouldn't look the same as German Nazism looks today, in hindsight. It would look attractive, and it would fool us again.

I am definitely a "divergent" and I guess that's why I am studying Nazism, because it's a subject that right the majority doesn't care about, like all history. So I can diverge by doing something almost no one else is doing. If instead I had been living in Nazi Germany of course I would have fled the country. Maybe I'd only have liked nazism if I got to be Hitler.
 
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_films_set_in_Berlin

I am liking it. I don't understand almost anything but I am liking it. This is the way to learn German, definitely. By watching movies that keep me at it.

In fact this is a movie that speaks with images - there's no need for much talking anyway.

The protagonist, actress Natja Brunckhorst is not only very good-looking but also very very good at playing a drug addict without being one:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natja_Brunckhorst

The movie is from 1981, but it could have been filmed today.
 
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Hmm, so... I am back. Still alive.

Ok, now capital is not too far from 40k, and considering that I was below 20k just a few weeks ago, I can really call myself lucky.

Remember what I told you the other day: I divested everything, from a very diversified future portfolio, in order to invest everything in the one position I was losing money on.

It started like this: I bought one, then it started falling, then 2, then 3... eventually I had 7 future contracts on it.

That's the way I've blown out many accounts before.

Anyway, now that's almost over.

Gradually the trade came back up, and I gradually sold all contracts, until having only 2 at the moment.

So I guess we can say that my portfolio is back to being diversified and not giving me any worries any longer.

Now I am thinking of getting back into CAD, ZC and buy also ZW, but they don't look very attractive anymore.

Unless they fall to the point I explained here, I won't buy any of them:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/140032-my-journal-3-post2310996.html

Yeah, sure, I could make plenty of money on them. I could make about 10k on ZC, 10k on ZW and 7k on CAD.

But I'd also get into a lot of worries. The worries that have been with me for over a year, given all the positions I've been in, waiting and waiting...

If instead I had traded my futures, I'd have a huge capital now, 2 or 3 times as big as what I have right now.

Yup.

Damn.

It's just that I was counting to make more from my discretionary trading, so I disabled my systems, and let these trades use up all the margin.

I was wrong.

At any rate, ZC, ZW and CAD look like they might fall a little bit, so I'll wait before I buy them. Until Wednesday at least, when the markets usually start rising again.

They're just too high right now, all three of them.

So I am not going to buy them, although right now I'd have the margin for them.

Let's wait 2 more days and see what happens.

---

Ok, I've set up the orders on TWS (disconnecting IB Gateway for a few minutes) and I'll leave them there for a few months, just in case they get triggered.

I inserted LMT orders for the December 2014 ZW and ZC contracts, a bit lower than where they are now (cfr. link to previous post).

For CAD, I've inserted a 0.89sh LMT entry order. It's too high now. Usually when I am afraid they'll get away from me, they fall much lower and I regret buying them.

And also if I don't get into any of these trades, it won't be a problem, because I'm already into too many positions anyway. They've been a nightmare overall and haven't brought me any money, but have put my trading on hold for at least a year.

I had already made my 40k over a year ago with my crazy JPY trades (documented on this journal). Then, trying to go from 40k to higher, I instead kept going up and down between 15k and 45k, for longer than a year.

Had I instead stopped trading and let my systems trade, by now I'd be at over 100k.

Well, I am not just going to quit my silver and gold trades along with everything else. I will drop them one at a time, as they'll produce profits, if they're too much profits to be kept (such as gold at 2000 or silver at 50 and so on), or if they'll slowly make profits, then I'll keep them until they expire in December 2014.

I need to get away from this discretionary madness, whereby I go to bed hoping for my positions to finally have bottomed.

I am done with this subject for a while hopefully.
 
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IB Gateway API tickers page problem (High-Low-Close missing)

On to talking about IB Gateway. I've found a problem with the tickers page, potentially pretty big. I am referring in my using it in conjunction with API excel DDE.

I noticed that if I keep IB Gateway open over the weekend, or it might be even more frequently, well, basically after a few days of running it non-stop, I have problems in getting High-Low-Close from my tickers page, no matter how many times I click the "request" button on the tickers excel sheet. If I reboot IB Gateway, then all of a sudden all quotes on the tickers page work again.

The same problem might have happened in TWS, but I never found out about it, since I've only kept it running less than 24 hours at a time before rebooting it. And also because I wasn't notified via email every 3 hours of how things were going, which I've enabled a few days ago.

This is going to be a big problem if I don't plan to bring my laptop with me for my 2-weeks vacation.

Also because I don't trust logging into my server from a public internet spot or whatever it's called in English (here in Italy, they call them "internet point").

This time the problem happened for the first time after a whole week of no problems with IB Gateway and a weekend. Today it's Monday and I noticed the problem. But I had noticed it before. I just don't know which situation it was exactly. I solved it the same way, by rebooting IB Gateway.

At any rate, this problem does not keep all my systems from trading, but only one third of them: those that rely on today's range (High-Low).
 
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Guys, I am doing incredibly good, as all my positions are rising at once. If it weren't for the fact that I am constantly thinking of death (it happens to me every once in a while, a few months at a time), I would be happy.

Just a few weeks ago, maybe 3 weeks ago, I was desperate, below 20k, with all my positions focused on one future, the one that had shown me a loss. Now I am quite diversified, and at more than twice the capital I had three weeks ago.

Other than that, I am listening to some new nazi songs I found online:
https://archive.org/details/Ww-2GermanArmyMarchMusic-01-75

They cheer me up a little bit.

Before you call me nazi, racist or similar, don't forget what I said: if I were living in Nazi Germany I would have left the country immediately. But now that no one cares about these anthems, I can appreciate them. I can appreciate history, once it has become harmless.

---

Other than that, I am still struggling with VBA's OnTime events. Last night they got triggered twice and I still haven't figured out why. I cannot have this happening while I am trading my systems or trade orders will be sent twice.

...

Meanwhile, the gold bugs....

kingworldnews.com
Terrifying Worldwide Meltdown To Devastate The Entire Globe

silverdoctors.com
THE END OF THE U.S. DOLLAR & COLLAPSE OF CIVILIZATION AS WE KNOW IT!

I am getting tired of these titles, after years of reading these same things over and over again. Yet maybe they're right.

And yet, I have almost come to the point of not reading these articles anymore, and even the titles are getting boring.
 
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Just as expected. Now that all my problems seem to be solved: markets going my way, automated trading fine-tuned to the point that I can let it run unattended for weeks... now that I am not even seeing any major problems at work... now I am thinking about death.

My death and that of everyone around me.

This is indeed very depressing, and yet there's no shrink that can cure you of this. It's indeed a real problem.

These nimrods around me keep telling me to see a psychiatrist, whereas it's they who are being unreasonable.

Anyway, regardless of events, of whether I'll die or whether I'll be like Christopher Lambert in Highlander, I will momentarily get over this, according to my estimates, in about 2 months.

This was all triggered by our mourning over a family grief.

Preceded by my concerns about tinnitus. Thinking about death long enough will make you worry less about your tinnitus.

Other than this, everything is fine, as I said. I even solved the High-Low-Close problem without having to restart IB Gateway.

...

Yup. People who don't have enough to eat, they will worry about finding that food, and will be very happy if they're eating enough today. People who don't have shelter will be happy about being able to find or build a safe shelter. People who have everything, they will worry about death. And they will be more depressed than any of the other people missing the various things in the Maslow's pyramid of hierarchical needs or whatever they called this concept.

In fact I am still missing marijuana, so I am starting to think about that. Which in turn may wipe out all other ideas in my mind.

...

Part of trading is about sitting still as Jesse Livermore wrote, so in fact IB Gateway does help you with that part. It's very uncomfortable to place any trades with IB Gateway, at least manually. So this is the perfect setup for me. For someone who either wants to trade automated or to trade with long-term position trades -- without adding contracts to the positions that aren't going well.

So, what's happening now is that no matter how many times I log into my remote server and check the systems and how they're working, I am only checking software and the balance at the most, but I am not very tempted to place any trades, as there are no charts and there's no trading platform.

Once again, this gives you a lot of free time to think about depressing thoughts, whether right or wrong. Because in fact I've always thought that it's wiser to be depressed than to be happy.

 
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