my journal 3

regretting phase for my silver trade

Dude, it's happening, the regretting phase for my silver trade, just as learned and theorized on the chart game.

After two months on the chart game, I have it down to a science. For every trade you make, you later need some time off to wipe out from your mind (or else you'll act and trade irrationally, and unprofitably):
1) a loss (followed by anger)
2) a win (which is followed by euphoria)
3) missed profit, whether by exiting too early or not entering (followed by anger, almost as bad as from a loss)

Obviously, sooner or later, you will have to exit a trade, and it's basically impossible to enter and exit at the most convenient time. And if you try to do that, you'll probably end up losing money or missing profitable opportunities.

So basically these feelings, all three types (loss, win, missed profit) are unavoidable, and so are the ensuing destabilizing mind sets. These phases on the chart game only last about 5 minutes, during which you can't trade or you'll trade irrationally, fueled by your anger/euphoria.

And I am now in that phase for silver, type #3: missed profit. Obviously I had to get out. I had doubled my capital thanks to it, and didn't want to risk seeing it vaporized. What happened? That if I had stayed in it just one week longer, I would have tripled my capital. But so what? If we knew the future inch by inch, we would own the world within a few days. So obviously we don't know the future, except when it becomes past. This is something we tend to forget when we're reviewing our trades: the fact that when we traded we didn't know what we know now.

So, given that we ignore the future, these events and emotions are not avoidable, and therefore it is now just a matter of getting over these feelings of anger, and staying away from trading until this happens. The scale of the chart game vs reality is about 1 to 100 on average. So if it takes me 5 minutes on the chart game, in this situation, to get over this feeling of regret/anger it will take me 5 minutes times 100... which is about 10 hours. But, to be on the safe side, and given how important the silver trade has been for me, make that a whole week. Right, a whole week of destabilization from the silver trade, because, instead of tripling my account, I only doubled it. Damn, sounds funny but it is the way it is. Discretionary trading is indeed that hard. Just about everything destabilizes you.

And when you're destabilized, you feel the urge to do irrational and counter-productive things such as:
1) silver went higher than you expected? You will short it, because it's been rising too much. This could easily blow out your account.
2) silver went higher? Not my thing, but someone might feel like trying to go long on it, now (too late, and it might reverse and blow out their account).
3) silver disappointed you because of missed profit? You'll feel the urge to make it all back with some other futures.

All these ideas have in common this: the motivation for trading is not that you spotted an opportunity, but that you feel the urge to take revenge. Obviously this is not going to be profitable in the long term.

idea2develop
 
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Eastbound & Down

more excellent work by ferrell, jody hill, ben best, mckay and mcbride:
Watch Eastbound & Down Season 1 - Episode 1 - Chapter 1: Career Errors online - download Eastbound & Down Season 1 - Episode 1 - Chapter 1: Career Errors - on 1Channel | LetMeWatchThis

It's an HBO series, but as good as a (good) movie.

The whole list of episodes is here:
Watch Eastbound & Down online - download Eastbound & Down - on 1Channel | LetMeWatchThis

This is art.

...

Very funny. I've already watched the first 3 episodes... laughing pretty hard throughout it. I'd say it is a masterpiece for being something you can watch on HBO. Even better than the Sopranos. No wonder, it's directed by the same director as Your Highness, David Gordon Green. He's in my top five directors (if scored according to the amount of good movies they made):

Snap1.jpg

...

I just watched the fifth episode. In total I've watched so far 2 and a half hours of it and I don't remember the last time I laughed so hard. Probably when I watched Dumb and Dumber.

...

Oh, wow, episode 6 is so good that it made my ranking of it go from 7 to 6. Right up there with Dumb & Dumber. Top comedy masterpiece.

As I watched episodes 1 through 6, my ranking of Eastbound & Down went from 12 to 6. This is totally excellent work. Right up there with the Sopranos. Yet better. Much funnier, and much more important issues, concepts and philosophy.
 
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People, under the pretense of being your friends, joke. And, under the pretense of joking, they bother you and disrespect you. You have to quickly identify these people and keep them from pretending they're your friends. If they really think they are, they will find a different way of showing their friendship. If they're not, then it will not be a loss but a gain.
 
Italian financial transaction tax

Gee, I got an email from IB about the "Italian Financial Transaction Tax" and got scared because I am Italian, but it turns out that it applies to the world and the email was sent to every customer, regardless of nationality. In fact, all brokers, all over the world, are talking about it. These guys from the HKEx explain it perfectly here:
http://www.hkex.com.hk/eng/homepage/Documents/HKEX_IFTT_FAQ_E.pdf

Snap1.jpg

In case you can't see the picture, here's the text:
2. What transactions are subject to IFTT?

The IFTT is imposed on transactions (whether traded on exchange or over-the-counter), involving the following:

(a) the transfer of ownership of shares, and of securities representing Italian equity investments (such as depository receipts) issued by companies which have their registered office in Italy. The tax so imposed is defined for the purpose of these FAQ as “Equity IFTT”; and

(b) derivative contracts, which have as their underlying the shares/securities described in (a), or which are related to the value of such shares/securities, including options, warrants, covered warrants and certificates. The tax so imposed is defined for the purpose of these FAQ as “Derivative IFTT”.
Click to expand...

So, no worries. Because I am not making "Italian equity investments", nor trading derivative contracts which have them as their underlying.
 
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'The End of America: Election Edition' - Documentary Based on Best Seller by Naomi Wolf - YouTube

Naomi Wolf - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
In The End of America: Letter of Warning to a Young Patriot, Wolf takes a historical look at the rise of fascism, outlining 10 steps necessary for a fascist group (or government) to destroy the democratic character of a nation-state and subvert the social/political liberty previously exercised by its citizens:

1.Invoke a terrifying internal and external enemy
2.Create secret prisons where torture takes place
3.Develop a thug caste or paramilitary force not answerable to citizens
4.Set up an internal surveillance system
5.Harass citizens' groups
6.Engage in arbitrary detention and release
7.Target key individuals
8.Control the press
9.Treat all political dissidents as traitors
10.Suspend the rule of law[28]
Click to expand...

...damn, though, what a limited/dishonest perspective she has: she calls 911 "an attack to our nation", and doesn't even bother to state clearly that it was done by the government itself. I cannot get too excited about a lady who only says half the truth. It's not like it's a minor issue you can afford to ignore: if you don't say that 911 was organized by the US government, then you're either stupid or you're lying - maybe because she doesn't want to lose any readers, yet still totally dishonest and unforgivable.
 
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I will write something, just for the sake of it. I don't have any specific in mind yet.

I am about to leave for my two-weeks vacation, to the island.

Each time I leave for this summer vacation, I say to myself that it is the last time I go to the island as a vacation, because before the next year, I will have quit my job and moved to the island, but each September, here I am, leaving for the island, as the destination of my holiday.

Lena Horne & Gabor Szabo Something - YouTube

I don't know what it will take to quit my job. My parents have manipulated me into thinking... have convinced me that it is a sin to quit my job... it is a sin, unless i have reached humongous amounts of money, such as... a few millions. So what happens is that in my desperate attempt to reach a huge amount of capital, I keep going from a few thousands to a few dozen thousands, and then back down to a few thousands, on and on. Year after year. Because I push my luck and risk management to unprofitable levels. Now I am at the top of the range again, and I will try hard to break above the range, instead of going back down, for the umpteenth time.

Lena Horne - In My Life - YouTube

Partly, the trick of not going back down will consist of forgetting about my trading.

Partly, I will achieve it by not trading discretionary, because I still haven't figured that one out, and I'd end up blowing out my account again. So, hopefully, I will manage to keep myself from trading discretionary, and I will let my systems trade, especially now that they're entirely automated, with their risk/money management formula. Cfr. this post:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/140032-my-journal-3-post2104192.html

Yep, it's all automated now. Everything. There's no discretion in my automated trading. What was left of it, until last March when I came up with that formula (cfr. above post), was that I had to choose which systems and how many contracts they traded.

Another important element that will give me some extra tranquility is the decreasing of the hours spent at my job. Right now I am leaving at 14:30. If I could manage, by anticipating by half an hour, and by decreasing from 6 daily hours to 5 and a half, then I could leave at 13:30.

That'd be a miracle, if I manage to obtain that schedule from my bosses. Considering we're at war - given that they're so evil and unfair and dishonest.

It'd also be a miracle if I can keep my schedule as good as it is now. But, who knows... maybe in October, when it's time to ask for a new schedule, there might be hyperinflation, economic and/or financial collapse, and no one will mind my request and next year, if the bank is still around, I'll get to go home at 13:30 for the new schedule. If that happens, then I'll definitely be relaxed, relaxed enough to stay at my job and not tamper with my systems, out of despair and from wanting to quit my job.

So, it boils down to: 1) forget about my trading, 2) not trade discretionary, 3) decrease the hours at my job.

But there's also a #4: I will meet that math professor, and we'll focus on discretionary trading. We might come up with some profitable methodology, and then my compounding rate will at least double.

But, no matter what I achieve, I must not see the end of my job as imminent. If I do that, then I will feel like rushing things and I will lose everything. I must brainwash myself into forgetting about my trading - while working on it (lessons with math professor).

I must brainwash myself into feeling like a regular person, like a carefree person. Like an idiot, almost. Only as far as the advantages idiots have (95% of people).

In this sense, I am once again reminded of that quote by brian lund:
http://bclund.com/2013/03/12/10-things-i-wish-i-knew-when-i-started-trading/
Ask yourself this question, and be honest. What’s more important to you, having everyone you know idolize you because you’re “trader”, but lose money, or have everyone think that you are just some schlub who works in an ice cream store, while in fact you are really making a fortune in the markets?
Click to expand...
In other words, it will help to not talk about my trading to other people, because that in turn would put pressure on my trading. And, since they already know that I'm trading, I should let them keep thinking that I just keep on making some and losing some, without ever increasing my capital. I must let them think, as they mostly do, that my trading will never produce any real profits. So, even if I told them the truth, that right now it's going well, I should also add: "but, as usual, I might lose everything within the next few weeks".

I should favor tv over pc. The more I am at my computer, the more I stress out and work. The more I watch tv, the more carefree and stupid I get, and that is what I need right now. Of course I am not saying I should be drinking beer and similar. Just the relaxation part of being an idiot. I will still follow my raw vegan diet.
 
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