my journal 2

[Yamato]

Thanks for the advice. However, I am indeed blowing it out of proportion because I am intolerant and paranoid.

Anyway, the saga continues.

Our hero has even briefly turned around to look at the empty seat of my colleague. This hyperactive moron finds any excuse, even none at all, to turn around look at various spots in the room.

He is not normal. I am not normal. We make an explosive match.

He's hyperactive, I just want to work my head fixed onto my monitor. I get distracted by someone looking around the room and turning to me every 15 minutes.

But I'll try to focus less on him and to hate him less and to accept this hyperactive child.

He is also continuously dragging his feet on the floor.

You know what? As a hyperactive person, I will consider him "handicapped" and I am not going to tell him anything about it even if I get the chance. It's an uncontrollable impulse that he feels and I don't have the right to expect him to stop. He can't stop moving, he can't stop staring... our sickness is quite similar actually.

I am compulsive in the sense that I work relentlessly, and he's compulsive in the sense that he slacks off relentlessly. We're both compulsive and we should tolerate each other.

 

[Yamato]

travis, you idiot!

I've done it again. After practicing the "begging trades" all weekend (too bad I practiced the other type as well), I came home, with my suit on still, and placed a trade as soon as I opened up a CL chart on TWS (which resembles closely my other type of exercise on the chart game: the "start trade immediately").

You might remember that I was practicing two methods on the chart game.

1) trade has to be within ma and beg you
2) start the trade immediately and close it after 10 candles


The most accurate (but also most tiring) method seemed to be the first one, even though I was profitable at both (not at the second one yet, but with more practice I think I would be).

Now I came home and, with real money, I placed a trade immediately on gut instinct, without even considering anything else. I looked at the chart a split second and went short: of course it had risen like crazy, and, since I have top and bottom picking tendencies, I could not resist going against where it had gone until here.

We will see shortly if I was right or wrong. But now the extra problem is that if I was right I will close it immediately (so not only wrong entry but wrong exit, too). And if I was wrong, I will keep it open until I blow out my account, because I am incapable of taking a loss. So, once again, not just a wrong method for entries but a wrong one for exits, too. Which combined ensure I always blow out my account, even when I get lucky.

Now let's see at least if according to my "start the trade immediately and hold it for 10 candles" method, I was right.

Now, since I don't have much margin, how long is 10 candles? I can hold it until tonight at 20.15 CET, because by then they will close it.

From 16 till 20 it is a bit over 4 hours. But let's pretend it's five. So my 10 compulsory candles (according to method #2) are half an hour candles. So what was 10 weekly candles on the chart game will now be 10 half an hour candles.

On the chart game, I was given a picture of 4 years of weekly candles, which means 210 candles.

So now I will allow myself to look at 210 half an hour candles, which means 105 hours, which means roughly a whole week of half an hour candles.

Let's post it and see how I would have analysed it yesterday according to the "bus stops method":




Damn, in the meanwhile, the position is losing so much that they want to close it right away even with the present margin!!!

Anyway, let's pretend we didn't see that and let's see what I would have done according to my second methodology.

1) I would not have worried about the color of the single candles but just the general direction and that is... UP.
2) I would have looked for bus stops: one on the bottom, and we had departed from that already, and one much higher on the top of the chart. This, too, would have made me go LONG.

Terrible problem. Not only did I not exercise impulse control, but even if I allowed myself to start the trade immediately I should have at least followed the "bus stops" method, which I did not.

Soon my trade will probably be closed by IB and I'll have blown out my account again.

There's no way around it: if you are impatient and want to start your trade immediately you've got to follow the trend, in other words, you've got to follow the bus and the bus stops method. If you can wait forever, and want to do top and bottom picking, then you have to be patient and use the ma and wait for a begging trade.

But you cannot do half of both and go against the trend and start the trade immediately, which is called "catching falling knives".

Trade closed by IB on margin call. Another account blown out. Another 1000 dollars lost. Another two extra months I'll have to spend at the bank.

----

Other than this, I will now get back on the chart game and practice a lot more of trading method #1, which means impulse control and "waiting for a trade to beg you". I will keep you posted.

 

[Yamato]

the trend is...

If you like to go against the trend, you're going to have to wait for the right moment, when everything screams for a reversal.

If you want to trade immediately, because you're compulsive, you have to at least follow the trend.

What the trend is depends on how long you want your trade to last and where prices have been going for the past... 5 periods of how long you want your trade to last.

Say you want your trade to last 1 hour: the trend is where prices have been going for the past 5 hours.

That's my estimate.

So we could even forget support and resistance and just follow this concept.

If we want to start the trade immediately and it has to last 10 weeks, then we have to see where price was a year ago: was it higher? Then we have to go short. Was it lower? Then we have to go long.

We'll worry later about the bus stop theory.

Let's do some more chart games with this exercise. Because after all, it will be easier for me to trade immediately and follow the trend, than to go against the trend and wait for hours before I see the right "begging" opportunity.

The number one priority for me is to trade immediately, because I am impatient, so I'll practice being profitable at this: because it's the easiest thing to learn for me. It's almost impossible for me to learn patience. Patience is a limited resource, and I've already used it all up by the time I get home from work, and, even at home, I am using up more patience to put up with the assholes next door, so I really cannot be expected to be a patient trader.

From now on no more method #1, "begging trades within the mas...

Wait!

Forget looking at where price was last year to measure trend: I will use MAs.

I will use one moving average and start the trade immediately within it, and will get it as soon as it gets crossed over again.

It's going to be very easy to verify if it works. I am combining the two methods, hopefully with the best of them.

I am trading immediately and using the moving average. The only problem remains what moving average.

I don't care about my losses. I want to get to the bottom of my problem. Because there is clearly a cause for my losses: and it is entirely within myself. There's no knowledge that I am missing: just understanding of myself.

I have not been blowing out 5 accounts per year for 13 years because I don't know the markets, but because I am not using my knowledge of the markets, and I am not doing that because of my impatience + top/bottom picking tendencies. If I were just impatient but followed the trend, I could make money. If I were a top/bottom picker but were patient, I could make money. It's the combination of the two that produces continuous losses.

If you go against the trend at the right time you can make a lot of money and with high confidence. If you go with the trend you can make a little money but more frequently. If you go against the trend all the time, you just blow out your account over and over again.

Once again, two problems:
1) going against the trend tendency (top/bottom picking)
2) impatience

To make money i have to remove at least one of them, and the easiest is "going against the trend", so I will now practice this on the chart game, and find the best way to make money with the trend.

 

[Yamato]

weekly: 22 ma AND 10 candles

Here's the method that seems to be working right now:

1) weekly candles
2) start trade immediately
3) go long/short based on where price is relative to its 22 ma
4) stay for 10 candles
5) 10-trades series
6) needless to say: total disregard for support and resistance (no "bus stops" theories here)

+44.80%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-39,11


Maybe this way I will open my eyes and stop fighting the trend and life in general. Yes, indeed, that is what I do in every area of my life: arguing with everyone, and with the market, too.

You see, my systems have long learned to take advantage of the trend. Or the ones that do not, and bet on reversals, at least are patient enough to wait for the right moments (those are the ones with the highest % of wins and best avg.win/avg.loss ratios). Yet for some reason I have not digested what I have coded. I keep on going back, when I trade, to my old self - because, discretionarily, I can neither wait nor go with the trend.

Let's do more chart game to see if I can digest the trend.

Mind you, using the ma crossover is still top/bottom picking. What is instead trend-following is following the ma wherever it has been going and doing so despite crossovers: staying with it for 10 periods (as in my list of rules above).

+25.37%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-40,10

Oh, and one thing must be stressed here: there is no discretion in this method I am using. It's just fixed rules. Go where price (the closing price of the candle, not the candle obviously or else there would be uncertain cases) is relative to its 22 ma (on weekly chart) and stay with it for 10 periods.

This method is reproducing exactly the situation i find when i come home from work: i open TWS and want to start trading immediately. Let's see if we can find a way to make money instead of losing every time.

+55.27%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-41,10

This is it... I think i've got it. I've never found until now something so easy (no discretion whatsoever) and something so profitable. I still have not had a 10-trades series which was unprofitable. And no wonder it works: it does exactly the opposite of what I've been doing for 13 years and which caused me to blow out my account about 50 times. I open up the chart, see where it's been going and bet against it. Now I am doing the opposite and making money every time. I can't believe I've been so stupid for all these years and the solution was right before my eyes. I guess it has to do with my being so contrarian and naysayer, or whatever you call my personality.

Oh wow... i think this can be used everywhere and on every timeframe. You have to use the 22 average or whatever you want, and the periods you stay in the trade have to be half as many the ma uses. That is awesome.

-39.34%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-42,10

I won't be as stupid this time as to stop here because of a negative result after several straight wins.

-29.90%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-43,11

I still won't give up on this concept.

-5.69%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-44,10

Ok, discipline is not everything.

I am finding variations that improve profit.

Everything as above except:

1) if profitable I can exit whenever i feel like (only discretionary element): both sooner AND later.
2) if unprofitable I still have to stick with the trade for 10 candles (but no longer than that).

 

[tomorton]

Re: weekly: 22 ma AND 10 candles

This is priceless stuff. Leave the TV off tonight and just read travis's journal.

 

[Yamato]

I hope you're not making fun of me, because I am serious about this stuff. I still have room in my ignore list.

 

[Yamato]

22 ma, 10 candles + discretionary takeprofit

I have to continue here because I got interrupted by either a fan or by a future member of my ignore list.

Here's the method that I am using right now:

1) weekly candles
2) start trade immediately
3) go long/short based on where candle's close is relative to 22 ma
4) stay for 10 candles but if profitable exit any time (sooner/later)
5) 10-trades series for every run
6) needless to say: total disregard for support and resistance (no "bus stops" theories here)

I got distracted here so I ended up making 15 trades instead of the usual 10:
+38.63%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-45,15

My present objective is now to never have an unprofitable run. The future objective is to bring this method to IB's paper trading. In the long term (2 weeks) I wish to trade this method with real money. The strength of this method is that it works for impatient traders like me: you can start the trade immediately. An implication of this is that it doesn't have a discretionary entry, nor many other discretionary things.

+70.34%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-46,10

Oh yes! I am allowing myself just as much discretion as I can handle, and it's showing in the profit.

I can't believe I got so good at this, and so rationally. Yes, I am a slow learner, but when I learn something I learn it clearly and I can explain it clearly. Not like all these people on forums, who don't explain jack****.

I am going to try some more. This is fun.

-42.16%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-47,10

Soon I might add a rule allowing a discretionary unprofitable exit, because this one was really bad and I could have predicted some of those big losses. However the overall profit is all there still.

New rules:

1) weekly candles
2) start trade immediately
3) go long/short based on where candle's close is relative to 22 ma
4) you can exit any time (sooner/later) but if unprofitable you have to exit by the tenth candle
5) 10-trades series for every run (every 10 trades come here to post result and start new game)
6) needless to say: total disregard for support and resistance (no "bus stops" theories here)

I changed rule #4 because I want to be able to exit if I think the trade I entered was wrong. I am still forced to enter, because I would never enter any pro-trend trade, so I need to be forced to do so. But then, if I am proven right, I can exit. Because sometimes my counter-trend instincts are right (when it's highly overstretched).

With these simple 6 rules, I don't think I can have any unprofitable 10-trades series.

Well, this one was coming from a previous 10-trades run, and I only used these rules for the last few trades:

-6.13%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-48,10

This new system is doing this:

1) It is allowing my thirst for action by making me place a trade from the start.

2) It is not allowing me to choose the (usually wrong) direction. It is channelling in the direction of the trend. What is a trend: price above a moving average. Above a moving average you will have a bunch of green/white candles. No point in looking for red/black candles above the moving average, which is what I do. So I need this channelling: the system is not allowing me to choose the direction, and I am ok with it, because I know I suck at it. Nor is it allowing me to choose the timing, because I suck at that as well.

3) It is allowing me to exit whenever I want, but not before I get a taste (the first candle) of the trade (basically) started by the system (only manually by me) and get to notice that following the trend is not that bad, and get to trust the trend. So I do get to choose the exit but only after 1 candle.

4) It is not allowing me to keep on hoping when I incur a loss. The most I can stay is 10 candles when I am losing.

Basically the trade gets placed by the system and I get to pick the exit, but I cannot prolong a losing trade for more than 10 candles.

+14.42%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-49,11

Very satisfied with this method: I am noticing that the moving average is right and that I could trust it more. I've been exiting early in all cases in the last run.

My aim as i said is to have all profitable runs from now on. It would be a huge success for me. Think about it: I am playing from the start and I am playing only 10 stocks. One big advantage I do have is volatility: it's impossible to have no volatility with weekly candles (whereas the daily ones could go nowhere for as many as 10). But this is solved with the CL: the CL is very volatile, and I am trading at the most volatile hour (16-17 CET), so it should be equivalent to the chart game. I probably could not replicate this on the CL during the night or even worse on the GBP during the night.

The neighbour is talking. I don't like her face, I don't like her accent, i don't like her slamming the door, I want her dead.

Let's see if I can do another positive run though. I'll kill her later.

I'm gonna put random mp3s so i don't hear her:
Modern Jazz Quartet - One Note Samba (Starving Artists Crew - Four Square).mp3

There, a nice guitar, you bitch. I'd like to stick it up your ass.

There, you bitch, another positive run:
+1.75%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-50,10

I don't care if it was by little.

Sticking another guitar up your ass and playing another game. I am removing the stress of entering and it was a not needed stress because I always picked the wrong entries. And I get the action I want. This works.

And i don't even have the stress of looking at support and resistance, because guess what they are useless, yes they are useless, despite everything i said.

Because you see, the trend blows everything away: there's no need for looking at support and resistance. You'll know where it was when the trend will stop. No point in top and bottom picking because most likely the trend will blow away support and resistance. Focus on the one most powerful force, the trend. Forget the rest. Simplify. But hell no: I had to be a contrarian for 13 years. I remember that maybe I was not a contrarian for my first two trades, but it was too easy so I had to find something to make it harder for me: top and bottom picking. Not only that: when i was right about it, I would get out immediately. Nice way to lose: you just look for bottoms and tops all the time and then, once you see that you are right, you get out of the trade and move on, or maybe bet on a reversal of your own prediction.

Anyway, here's another success:

+120.6%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-51,10

Ok, now I'll stick the swingle singers up your ass:
Swingle Singers - Bach - Choral de la Cantate.mp3

-29.96%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-52,10

All right, not getting discouraged. Lisa Ono is helping me out:

+14.17%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-53,10

Rod Stewart - Great American Songbook III - Stardust ALBW.mp3

+10.10%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-54,10

 

[Yamato]

still playing with the same rules

The "impatient trader's system", the "start immediately, stay as long as you want, but no longer than 10 candles if unprofitable" system

1) weekly candles
2) start trade immediately
3) go long/short based on where candle's close is relative to 22 ma
4) you can exit any time (sooner/later) but if unprofitable you have to exit by the tenth candle
5) 10-trades series for every run (every 10 trades come here to post result and start new game)
6) needless to say: total disregard for support and resistance (no "bus stops" theories here)

-8.07%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-55,10

What a wonderful world...

I see friends shaking hands, saying "how do you do?". They really say "**** you"...

Love is now the stardust of yesterday... the music of the years gone by...

+42.13%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-56,10

This is it, this is the right rules for me. The impatient trader's system. The compulsive trader's system.

Sometimes I wonder why I spend the lonely nights dreaming of a song, the melody haunts my reverie and I am once again with you, when our love was new and each kiss an inspiration. But that was long ago. Now my consolation is in the stardust of a song.

-16.53%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-57,10

I ain't giving up. I am good at this autistic practice and I achieve something whenever i get obsessive about it. If dreams are made of imagination, I am not afraid of my own creation.

+67.14%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-58,9

+84.54%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-59,10

Oh yes! A non-tiring gambling learning experience.

Going back to all fixed parameters, momentarily. Because I am tired, from talking to my dad, who (initially at least) didn't show much interest in my ideas, as usual. But I forced him to listen. He knows a lot about statistics.

1) weekly candles
2) start trade immediately
3) go long/short based on where candle's close is relative to 22 ma
4) exit at the tenth candle (but this can be changed to find a legth which is always profitable, even just 1 candle)
5) 10-trades series for every run (every 10 trades come here to post result and start new game)

Introducing...Rubén González
Rubén González

Hold on... got it!

New rules:

1) weekly candles
2) start trade immediately
3) go long/short based on where candle's close is relative to 22 ma
4) you can exit any time (sooner/later) but if unprofitable you have to exit by the tenth candle
5) you can refuse to enter a trade
6) 10-trades series for every run (every 10 trades come here to post result and start new game)

I can't be unprofitable with these rules above. No doubts. Only WITH the trend but if I don't feel good about a trade, I don't have to enter it.

+36.22%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-61,13

Damn damn damn!!!

-67.19%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-62,15

Nothing counts any more because my dad broke my concentration and brought a curse on my mood, as happens every time I speak with asshole.

I will go for one more game, because I cannot end on this note.

There!
+13.31%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-63,13

One more:
+81.17%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-64,12

Tomorrow I'll keep on going from here. Finally I found something to obsess about which will bring me money. This is it! This is it! This is it!!!!

Let us never forget what I found in the last few posts. The final perfectest version is the latest version above.

 

[Yamato]

simplified "impatient trader" method

Let's simplify the method and let us look at its strengths as far as my personality is concerned.

1) start trade immediately based on 22 ma
2) you can refuse to enter a trade (but then skip to next chart)
3) you can exit any time (sooner/later) but if unprofitable you have to exit by the tenth candle


#1 cures my need for action by making me enter immediately, but it also cures my impatience in rushing entries when I wait for them (if I don't wait for the moment to enter, i can't rush it either).

#2 it lets my healthy intuition avoid a trade: I may not be good at picking tops and bottoms, but at least I am good at not getting into a trend when I see a potential top/bottom.

#3 it allows me to use my healthy intuitions about the markets, and the last point cures my denial tendencies when a loss happens.

Let's seal the deal with one more game.

Essentially, how did I come up with this strong desire for a change and with this strategy and exercises?

I realized today, with my usual crazy trade when I got home from work, that, stripped down to its essential elements, what I do is:

1) come home
2) open up a chart on TWS
3) get into a trade against the trend

And once in a while, because of this, I blow out my account.

Why not channel this destructive energy (but still energy) by at least getting on the right side of the market? How can I keep on blowing out accounts like this?

My plan, as i said a few times in the latest posts, is NOT anymore to do what I've been trying in vain to do:

1) come home
2) open up a chart on TWS
3) wait for the right moment to enter against the trend

which is something i will never achieve because my biggest enemy is my impatience and frustration and I cannot defeat it, because I place a trade like I eat a sandwich or smoke a cigarette, to get rid of some anxiety and frustration in my life, like any other compulsive habit I have, like scratching my head.

So my plan rather than defeat the undefeatable is now to:

1) come home
2) open up a chart on TWS
3) get into a trade WITH the trend (and NOT get into a trade if it looks like a top/bottom, which is still not good enough to enter against the trend though).

I cannot defeat the habit of trading right away, out of frustration. But at least I can defeat the habit of entering against the trend, which undoubtedly causes losses, since the right time to do that is only 5% of the time, and I cannot wait for that 5% of the time to happen.

On top of it, if I am lucky to get there at the right time, and the old trend becomes obsolete, I will see the new trend as an enemy to challenge, even though I was the one who had predicted it, and I will take the contrarian view to my previous contrarian view... being on the wrong side forever.

My contrarian trading has to die, and my trend-following has to become second nature. Candles stick together, higher prices tend to follow one another... that's the trend. I realized it from the start, even some of my systems traded based on this, but I never acted on it in my compulsive discretionary trading. It's time to do it. My contrarian nature blinded for all these years. You cannot be a compulsive discretionary trader and be successful at picking trades that can be made... never, because when they can be made you're going to take the opposite view. I am always on the other side of what's happening. I cannot be right. I am always challenging authorities and the market, too.

Let's go for one more game. One of many to come.

+8.82%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-65,19

+13.90%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-66,16

+20.03%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-67,24

You know why I am doing this stuff so much and with so much enjoyment? Because someone here said this game is stupid. Being a contrarian, this gave me a lot of motivation. The other motivation comes from blowing out my account today again. Since I'm going to keep on trading, since I never quit for longer than a few months, I might as well try to learn something from it.

We can't stop my compulsive trading? Fine. Let's try to at least stop my compulsive top/bottom picking. Let's try to turn it into compulsive trend-following.

 

[Yamato]

can't fall asleep...

I'll just play the chart game with the above rules until I fall asleep. At least my insomnia will have a purpose.

+87.32%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-68,26

big failure here...
-67.14%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-69,26

...but:

bad again...
-67.76%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-70,14

...but again:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vivien_Leigh

+46.48%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-71,10

On the last chart of the last set of charts, I totally lost it and let it go forever, beyond the 10 candles (it was a loss).

I need to automated the exit. Or tell you what: let's try a few sets with just one candle. And see what happens. If the loss never gets bigger than... say 3 candles, I will not have a problem taking it. Let's play 2 or 3 candles in the next set.

Nope. It does not work. Let's get back to what i was playing earlier that worked:

1) start trade immediately based on 22 ma
2) you can refuse to enter a trade (but then skip to next chart)
3) you can exit any time (sooner/later) but if unprofitable you have to exit by the tenth candle

[...]

Close to quitting, because I am getting impatient with not getting perfect at it yet.

[...]

Maybe quitting maybe not. We'll see how it turns out in the next few days. I could keep on going in circles for the next few years, until i die. I've been going in circles and i could keep on doing it. Unless the systems get me out of these circles, which would just mean I stop trying discretionary and get the money from automated.

So far just vicious circles for 13 years: wire, blow out, wire, blow out, wire more money, blow out again...

I can't handle discretionary trading. The uncertainty of it drives me crazy and affects adversely my trading itself.

Automated trading keeps cool. I get upset and my following trades are worse, and therefore I can't ever find out if the method worked, because i stop applying it as soon as i lose once.

I am tired. I am tired of myself. My insomnia, my intolerance. My journals.

 

[Yamato]

last thoughts before going t osleeè

If the marketsa re not random and the candles stick together there's trend.

If ther's trend the trend can be measured by moving averages.

If you go with the moving average you'll be more likely to have candles in your favor.

So anything beats my previous method of entering against the moving average, predicting a reversal.

I don't know if i'll make money or i'll break even, but for sure i will do better than before.

I'll probably wire more money and do more discretionary trading. Not now, but maybe in a week or in a month or in 2 months.

I hope i'll remember that if I have the moving average on my side things go better. that's all.

 

[Yamato]

woke up with a new idea

As often happens after sleeping, I woke up with a new idea to implement, two more ideas actually, that will make the system entirely automated.

1) start trade immediately based on 22 ma if there were no more than 1 crossover in the last 10 periods.
2) exit after 5 candles if unprofitable, exit after 10 candles if profitable (at the 5th candle)

Let's see how it goes and if I have to modify it.

Yeah, it's working well. Plus I like having things entirely automated. My discretion tends to suck in all fields of life recently.

Yep, usual 10-trade series proved the method is relaxing (no thinking, just execution of rules) and profitable:

+33.53%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-78,18

Let's do one more to seal the deal.

-46.95%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-79,21

Damn, now I have to do one more or I'll go to work with this uncertainty and may forget about this good method. The child and his family is back (the other annoying neighbours) and the mother is doing all the stupid voices to talk to the child. May this family be exterminated from a natural catastrophe.

If these are the drawdowns, I can take them:

-13.62%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-80,18

I'll have to do one more. The "no more than 2 crossovers in the last 10 periods" rule is causing me to discard about half of the charts. It seems a good rule.

I need to change something here:

1) start trade immediately based on 22 ma if there were no more than 1 crossover in the last 10 periods.
2) exit after 3 candles if unprofitable, then exit on ma crossover (by candle's closing price).


This is a mess, 50% losses. I have to start again with the new rules.

http://chartgame.com/play.cgi?ew6cuy-81

Actually the filter is causing me to discard 75% of signals, but it might be good. Besides, now everything is automated. I think it's working but now I have to go to work. Here's the last results:

+16.04%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-82,27

I will continue when I come back, with the latest rules above.

Ok, while I was in the cab to work, I thought to myself: why complicate things with the 3 candles rule?

I will change this:
1) start trade immediately based on 22 ma if there were no more than 1 crossover in the last 10 periods.
2) exit after 3 candles if unprofitable, then exit on ma crossover (by candle's closing price).

Into this:
1) start trade immediately based on 22 ma if there were no more than 1 crossover in the last 10 periods.
2) exit on ma crossover (by candle's closing price).

 

[Yamato]

back from work and back to work

I will start immediately with these rules:

1) start trade immediately based on 22 ma if there were no more than 1 crossover (by candle's closing price) in the last 10 periods.
2) exit on ma crossover (by candle's closing price).

+2.19%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-83,23

Change:

1) start trade immediately based on 33 ma if there were no more than 1 crossover (by candle's closing price) in the last 10 periods.
2) exit on ma crossover (by candle's closing price).

Something is still wrong. It's not that I am tired.

 

[Yamato]

tired

The account is empty so there's no risks from my trading.

I am tired and I will set aside the chart game for a while.

The problems though are clear: I come home and start a losing top/bottom picking trade. I've got to reverse this situation and at least pick a trade in the opposite direction.

The hell with it. I will keep on going with the chart game.

New rules:

1) if you like the chart, start trade immediately based on 22 ma
2) exit on ma crossover (by candle's closing price)

There is now a big discretionary element in choosing charts to enter with, but I never have a choice of either timing or direction: that gets chosen by the system.

Let's see how it goes.

+35.37%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-85,32

I got into it so I lost count and did 16 trades.

+0.16%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-86,16

New rules:
1) if you like the chart, start trade immediately based on 33 ma
2) exit on ma crossover (by candle's closing price)

+32.84%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-87,12

I think i've got it. This works fine. I am staying within the ma, but I don't have to wait for the crossover, which is something I am unable to do. This is just like the system i came up with a couple of weeks ago, except that it removes the patience requirement. This is just great. It only allows me the discretion and patience I can afford.

It lets me choose which trades I want to make WITH the trend, whereas the other system had me wait for trades i wanted to make AGAINST the trend.

It's as if this system told me: "you want to trade immediately? then you get to pick trades only within the trend".

The other system told me: "you want to trade against the trend? then you have to wait patiently".

But which one can i do more easily? Forgo my desire to trade immediately, or forgo my desire to go against the trend? Very easily I can do the second one. As long as my need for compulsive action gets satisfied I can accept any other restrictions. And since the trend is the most frequent situation, I'll be ok with trading with the trend from now on. I can get used to it more easily than getting used to waiting for hours, which I've never been able to do in years of practice.

My system, my consciousness about the reasoning and the markets mechanisms is not good enough to have an entirely automated active system, or else I'd be really rich by now. So I need to use that discretionary element and decision (#1: "if you like the chart"), which I don't know exactly how I come up with. But I will be able to teach myself to be profitable within the trend and within the ma and within the immediate present.

Once again, the rules are:
1) if you like the chart, start trade immediately based on trend side of 33 ma
2) exit on ma crossover (by candle's closing price)

I will now go ahead and play a dozen 10-trades games to see if I am good or not. No more talking. Only when I will have all profitable runs I will be able to say that I've mastered this thing and that I have a profitable (discretionary) method.

Disaster, but this is all due to my discretionary choice so we cannot blame the system:

-38.20%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-88,8

I'll keep on going. My only choice in this game is whether to play the chart or not. Everything else is automated, or rather "fixed" and manually executed, which is not a guarantee because I may hesitate.

+17.90%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-90,13

-39.60%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-91,13

After some more tests on my own, all of which failed, I give up. I can't figure it out. I am doomed.

I will never make money with discretionary trading.

What I can say for sure is this: if I will make any more discretionary trades, I either wait for the moving average to be crossed, or, if I can't wait, I will enter in the other direction, WITH the trend.

I must never again trade against the moving average.

Now most likely I will take a break from all this sick compulsive crap for a couple of weeks, at least. Hopefully in the meanwhile there'll be some good news from the systems.

 

[Yamato]

woke up with another idea

New rules:

1) if RSI 14 > 50 and c > 33 ma start LONG. If RSI 14 < 50 and c < 33 ma start SHORT. (start trade immediately)
2) exit on ma crossover (by candle's closing price)

+3.59%
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-93,18

Not working.

I'll keep trying when I'll come back from work.

 

[Yamato]

struggling with roommate

It's not that this guy is evil. It's that we're total opposites:

1) I like to work hard quietly, and totally focused,

2) He likes to (compulsively) interact with people. He's a hyperactive talker, always saying hi to people going by in the hallway even if he doesn't know them, politician (former student representative), always turning around to me and our other roommate (she's fine - no complaints about her) and seeing what I am doing, always spacing out, always dragging his feet while sitting...


It's a mess. I hate him simply because he's here and he's so different from me. It doesn't matter that he doesn't have a problem with me. He's very very annoying and lowers my performance by 50% simply by being here and being himself. Actually he's maybe even making efforts not to disturb me, but not enough.

Restless mother ****er, may you get hit by a bus and die or stay at the hospital for the next six months!!!

**** YOU and YOUR WHOLE FAMILY!!!

 

[Yamato]

eureka on the trend

If the moving average is good at dividing one trend from the other, since there are several timeframes and several trends, why shouldn't it make sense to have all trends in favor and wouldn't that give us a bigger edge?

I will now test the above idea, on both the chart game and backtesting.

Nope, forget this. I've just started it but I am too drunk and mentally tired to get on with this. Hopefully I'll come back in six months and read this post and try this idea on tradestation.

For now, let's drop it.

 

[tomorton]

Re: struggling with roommate

It's not that this guy is evil. It's that we're total opposites:

1) I like to work hard quietly, and totally focused,

2) He likes to (compulsively) interact with people. He's a hyperactive talker, always saying hi to people going by in the hallway even if he doesn't know them, politician (former student representative), always turning around to me and our other roommate (she's fine - no complaints about her) and seeing what I am doing, always spacing out, always dragging his feet while sitting...


It's a mess. I hate him simply because he's here and he's so different from me. It doesn't matter that he doesn't have a problem with me. He's very very annoying and lowers my performance by 50% simply by being here and being himself. Actually he's maybe even making efforts not to disturb me, but not enough.

Restless mother ****er, may you get hit by a bus and die or stay at the hospital for the next six months!!!

**** YOU and YOUR WHOLE FAMILY!!!

Do you have an ipod, or headphones for your phone / desktop? I find most people avoid talking to you if you're wearing these. The noise should drown him out. Or you could always pretend you're listening to some loud music and can't hear him. Then he should soon give up.

Or............ maybe............. you just secretly enjoy the game?...........

 

[Yamato]

Well, it's not that I enjoy the game, but maybe I am not doing anything drastic because I know that I am intolerant and therefore I am not very sure that I can really go up to him and say "you don't have the right to look at me: now stop". In the same way, I complain about the neighbours slamming the door, but I never go up to them, ring the door, and say "you must stop immediately slamming the door or I will sue you". In the same way I don't do other things. My mom has educated me that it is not polite to try to educate people. It is beneath me to go and try to teach adults good manners. It would be ok with me to kill them all. But it's not acceptable for me to go up to rude people and tell them: "stop slamming, stop spitting, stop yelling, stop distracting me, stop being hyperactive, stop being an animal...". All these people were raised by their parents like animals: I don't see why I should be expected to replace their parents, with great damage done to myself because they most likely would not accept it nor listen to me.

I am an only child, I am very tidy, I know that in most ways I am better than average (more intelligent, polite, generous, fair, honest) and that, since I would expect others to be like me, I will be mostly disappointed. Since I notice that I am mostly disappointed, I am yes annoyed, but I don't really know how fair it is to apply my high standards to everyone else.

When I am annoyed by people, I always have to ask myself if they're doing it on purpose or not and I am never really sure that they are. I think in most cases people might not be doing something to annoy me: they are just very very poorly educated and don't respect others by nature. These people I live with and work with. In the past it's been worse: I've been in a boarding school with thieves. But i've also been around better people, such as most of my relatives, who all have my standards.

Sure, if I could, I would kill them all, but I can't. And I don't even know how intelligent it would be to go up to all these people and try to make them do what I think is fair.

I would not call myself "intolerant". I would say that I am better and I would expect others to be as good as me. Objectively we could say that I am "intolerant" but not in the sense of "racist" or similar. I would want people to be as generous, sensitive, intelligent, serious, hard-working as I am.

Let's look at my recent roommates at work and my complaints:

1) I was in the room with a guy called "Antonio", who used to whistle and sing and talk loudly while I was trying to work. I talked to my boss several times, begging him to make me change room. Is it me or him? Is it normal that a guy sings and whistle at the office? Am I being intolerant or do I happen to work with pigs?

2) Eventually he put me with a guy called "Marco": I talked about him here, too. He played the radio all day long. I could not stand it much either, but it was better than the other guy, and I didn't complain much to the boss, since I had just been moved.

3) "Marco" was moved out of my room, and I was given "Carmela": raised in the UK, she was totally polite and perfect for me. No complaints at all, and I even went today on a "coffee break" (at the vending machines, and after work) with her.

4) "Carmela" was moved out of my room and I was given a new roommate, "Maria". She is totally fine: she buys me sandwiches. No complaints about her either.

5) Now another male chimp was placed in my room, "Vito". And I already said what he does.

Is it me or most of my male colleagues are animals? Otherwise why is it that none of these guys hates me but I would like to have them all killed? I think it's because I am polite no matter what (even when I hate them) and they are rude even if they like me. They all like me but I am bothered by 75% of them. If those who bother me are in my room, then I start hating them and keep hating them until I have to put up with them on a daily basis.

CONCLUSION
How many people have I complained about on this journal? Dozens. Even my friends from highschool, whom I've spent just 2 weeks with. This means that my standards are too high, whichever way you want to put it (either because I am intolerant or too good a person). And, being aware of that, I complain all the time but try not to stand up to these people: because I am not sure I have the right to and because I am not sure I would be effective (if you are not sure about your rights, you're going to be less effective).

EXAMPLES
E.g.: could i slam the door like the neighbours? Yes, sure. No one would come to me and complain: they might not even notice. Could I sing/whistle at the office? Sure, Antonio would not have minded. Could I look at my neighbour every 15 minutes? Vito would be ok with it. Could I even play the radio at the office? Marco might have been ok even with that. See what I mean? I don't know if I can be intolerant of (rude) behaviours that the (rude) people would allow me to do.

Half of the people in this building slam their doors. That doesn't keep me from hating my door-slamming neighbours, but it keeps me from ringing at their door or calling the building administrator and complaining.


EXCEPTIONS
There is one exception to the rule of not complaining about other people's annoying me and it's with the people I am friends with, or at least very well acquainted. My dad, Vito himself... it is hard to make friends with those who annoy you but sometimes it happens. For example my dad is an asshole but I am acquainted with him, so I am able to tell him some of the stuff that bothers me and correct his behaviours. But this is only because he's been criticizing me my whole life about the smallest things, so now it's payback time and so at least I get to tell him some of the things he does that bother me, since recently he's letting me. Before that, he'd scream if I dared to.

Vito is another exception. He's like a loud hyperactive cousin, like having a ****ing dog in my house: he's not evil. He's just a hyperactive animal, who annoys me and keeps me from working. So I can make friends with him and tell him like i do that I am glad he left and "damn, you came back" and "have good lunch and take your time".


ANOTHER IMPORTANT POINT: I LIVE IN THE COUNTRY OF SILVIO BERLUSCONI
Something else that i should mention is that i live in a country that has been ruled for 15 years by a dishonest person like Silvio Berlusconi. Over half of Italians have contributed to this. Can I be intolerant of Silvio Berlusconi? Yes, for sure. I can be intolerant of thieves. But can I expect most Italians to agree with me? No, I cannot. Honest and intelligent people in my country are a minority, so an honest person is always wondering if he can complain, if it's effective, or if he should not bother at all. Let alone that it's not just my country, but the world which is behind. Think about BUSH in the States, who voted for him? All people whom I cannot appreciate for either honesty or intelligence. Most people who voted for bush are either too stupid or too dishonest for my standards.

 

[Yamato]

more on the trend

I ran some tests on tradestation, on the CL, 2002 to 2010, data from disktrading.com, time EST, timeframe 15 minutes, no costs included. Quite a simple code:

Inputs: test(0), test2(0), test3(0);
If marketposition = 0 and time = test then Begin
If c > c[4] Then Buy("Long") This Bar;
If c < c[4] Then Sell("Short") This Bar;
End;
If barssinceentry > 0 and marketposition <> 0 Then Begin
Exitshort("time X short") This Bar;
ExitLong("time X Long") This Bar;
End;

Does it make sense, when I come back from work at 16 CET, which is 10 EST, to look at the CL and where it's been going for the last hour or so and take the contrarian trade for 15 minutes? If it's been going up I go short for 15 minutes and viceversa.

The report says this (see attachment):
View attachment 15_minutes_trade.xls

OMNIA_test NetPrft

200 -0.77
300 -3.34
400 0.86
500 3.56
600 13.87
700 -0.39
800 -7.93
900 2.5
1000 28.95
1100 24.34
1200 13.99
1300 -1.32
1400 -4.39
1500 1.71
1600 -10.33
1700 -2.13

It does NOT make sense. I lose 30 thousand dollars in the last 8 years.

Let's see what happens if my trade lasts 1 hour instead of 15 minutes.

Nope, it doesn't make sense either:
View attachment 1_hour_trade.xls

200 12.87
300 -19.58
400 -9.85
500 -15.23
600 25.08
700 3.72
800 -30.58
900 -31.05
1000 36.77
1100 25.99
1200 27.91
1300 34.39
1400 -10.13
1500 16.69
1600 -14.45
1700 -65.25


Not only that, but it doesn't make sense at 10, 11, 12, 13. The trend keeps going for all those hours. Even after commissions and spread costs, you still make money by going in that direction, of the trend. So I've been doing the wrong thing for years.

Now, I've noticed that short trades are so much better than long trades at 10 EST (since long trades actually lose money), so here's a new system I just created.

If marketposition = 0 and time = test then Begin
If c < c[8] Then Sell("Short") This Bar;
End;

If barssinceentry > 7 and marketposition <> 0 Then Begin
Exitshort("time X short") This Bar;
End;

And I am using 2 hours to poll trend and to stay in the trade, too. No costs included, but still profitable after costs.



Actually what the report really said is that it makes sense to go short IF we've been going down, but it makes sense to go short also IF we've been going up. So, at 10 EST it just makes sense to go short on the CL for 15 minutes, an hour and even 2 hours.

So wait: actually I was doing the right thing, but I didn't have enough money to hang in there for so many trades!!

Here's the winning code:
If time = 1000 then Sell("Short") This Bar;
If barssinceentry = 8 Then Exitshort("time X short") This Bar;






This system makes 100k in 8 years with 1000 trades. If you get rid of 2 ticks per trade on average for commissions and spread costs, you get 1000 times 20 dollars, which is... 20k. Still makes 80k.

Here's an even better one:



If time = 1000 and c < closed(10) then Sell("Short") This Bar;
If barssinceentry = 8 Then Exitshort("time X short") This Bar;

We only trade in down periods and make 76k - 10k of commissions with half as many trades. It makes 66k, with just 500 trades. That's 8k per year with 60 trades per year more or less. I might even implement it. Whereas I'll have energies to automate and run this, I won't have the patience to do it in a discretionary way, so I'll keep on losing money.