Yamato
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Yamato
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Mr. Sandman
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-c66SJPuUIhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xMCNmUaGko
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Sandman
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpgCOWiNSOc
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Chordettes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0DG7BQYB2w
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9-DuC0tE7V4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-c66SJPuUIhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xMCNmUaGko
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Sandman
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpgCOWiNSOc
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Chordettes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0DG7BQYB2w
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9-DuC0tE7V4
Yamato
Legendary member
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Yamato
Legendary member
- Messages
- 9,840
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- 246
Yamato
Legendary member
- Messages
- 9,840
- Likes
- 246
Last edited:
Yamato
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megamuel
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Yamato
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discretionary note to self
Play 30 games in a row to test your impulse control.
1 trade per chart.
33 ma.
Enter with ma in favor (usually at crossover). You don't have to trade every chart.
Exit if the whole candle is on the other side of average - otherwise discretionary exit.
Objective:
Every 10 trades must be profitable.
Success:
More success:
Play 30 games in a row to test your impulse control.
1 trade per chart.
33 ma.
Enter with ma in favor (usually at crossover). You don't have to trade every chart.
Exit if the whole candle is on the other side of average - otherwise discretionary exit.
Objective:
Every 10 trades must be profitable.
Success:
More success:
Last edited:
Yamato
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moving average working
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-16,109
After 154 trades and bringing 10k to 80k, I can say that using the moving average (roughly from 20 to 40 periods on the daily candles) as a signal for entries and exits works.
The method is the one used above, but I can also enter repeatedly for every stock.
The method again is this:
Enter with ma in favor (usually at crossover) in extremely overstretched situations. You don't have to trade every chart.
Exit if the whole candle is on the other side of average - otherwise discretionary exit, usually before it gets recrossed, because I'd rather have more wins and smaller than huge wins and less frequent. I have troubles taking losses.
Having a moving average there, constantly reminding you when you're wrong and the trade is against you, is a good protection against my denial tendencies.
This above is my equity after bringing 10k to 100k (I traded more). I am getting used to my medecine of the moving average. It cures me from being in denial and not taking losses. But it still hasn't become second nature.
It's going to be close to impossible to lose 100k now. But, knowing my tendency to not take losses, I know could lose it all in just two trades. I could lose 90% in one trade actually. It's pretty easy to lose in one trade everything you have made in 150 trades.
One could say that it's just as easy to make money as it is to lose it. And it's true (if we exclude commissions and spread costs). However, with my help, or rather my damage, it is far easier to lose it. You see, if I pressed buy and sell randomly, the outcome would be random, and I could turn 10k into 100k in one trade just as easily as I could turn 10k into 1k. Say you sell something at 10 and it goes to 1. You bring 10k to 100k. Now say you push the opposite button and buy at 10 and it goes to 1. I am tired but more or less you would bring your capital from 10k to 1k (this part for sure, the other part, I am less sure about).
So we know that random trades give you zero profit in the long run (no costs in the chart game). But why do my trades bring me losses and bigger losses than wins? Because I cut wins and let losses run. So that if I don't protect myself from those big losses, I am screwed. I cut wins because I don't they'll be long term wins. The uncertainty is too much to risk it. But then I don't cut losses because I am hoping they will come back. So a loss can turn into a big loss, but a win cannot do the same.
I am tired, but I get my point. I am just talking to myself, because this is discretionary stuff, so I am not going to debate this stuff, as I said several times before.
Bottom line is that I can make money with discretionary trading, as long as I keep myself tied to a moving average which will force me to get out of a losing trade.
---------------------
Nothing to do, it's hopeless:
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-16,164
After a while I get tired, get restless, and overdo it... expecting to still make money. Just like with my real account. And I lose. I don't close a losing trade... I blow out both my real account and my simulated account, out of impatience.
I am definitely capable of making money, but the more I play the more impatient I get, so I should just weigh my choices. On the other hand, I must make sure that I get so good and develop such a profitable method that I will be able to make money no matter what stock I play, any stock. Not just out of every 10, but out of every single stock. Provided that I am rested and that I have the choice of not trading a stock. And provided that I can play on a daily basis (on the chart game).
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-16,109
After 154 trades and bringing 10k to 80k, I can say that using the moving average (roughly from 20 to 40 periods on the daily candles) as a signal for entries and exits works.
The method is the one used above, but I can also enter repeatedly for every stock.
The method again is this:
Enter with ma in favor (usually at crossover) in extremely overstretched situations. You don't have to trade every chart.
Exit if the whole candle is on the other side of average - otherwise discretionary exit, usually before it gets recrossed, because I'd rather have more wins and smaller than huge wins and less frequent. I have troubles taking losses.
Having a moving average there, constantly reminding you when you're wrong and the trade is against you, is a good protection against my denial tendencies.
This above is my equity after bringing 10k to 100k (I traded more). I am getting used to my medecine of the moving average. It cures me from being in denial and not taking losses. But it still hasn't become second nature.
It's going to be close to impossible to lose 100k now. But, knowing my tendency to not take losses, I know could lose it all in just two trades. I could lose 90% in one trade actually. It's pretty easy to lose in one trade everything you have made in 150 trades.
One could say that it's just as easy to make money as it is to lose it. And it's true (if we exclude commissions and spread costs). However, with my help, or rather my damage, it is far easier to lose it. You see, if I pressed buy and sell randomly, the outcome would be random, and I could turn 10k into 100k in one trade just as easily as I could turn 10k into 1k. Say you sell something at 10 and it goes to 1. You bring 10k to 100k. Now say you push the opposite button and buy at 10 and it goes to 1. I am tired but more or less you would bring your capital from 10k to 1k (this part for sure, the other part, I am less sure about).
So we know that random trades give you zero profit in the long run (no costs in the chart game). But why do my trades bring me losses and bigger losses than wins? Because I cut wins and let losses run. So that if I don't protect myself from those big losses, I am screwed. I cut wins because I don't they'll be long term wins. The uncertainty is too much to risk it. But then I don't cut losses because I am hoping they will come back. So a loss can turn into a big loss, but a win cannot do the same.
I am tired, but I get my point. I am just talking to myself, because this is discretionary stuff, so I am not going to debate this stuff, as I said several times before.
Bottom line is that I can make money with discretionary trading, as long as I keep myself tied to a moving average which will force me to get out of a losing trade.
---------------------
Nothing to do, it's hopeless:
http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?ew6cuy-16,164
After a while I get tired, get restless, and overdo it... expecting to still make money. Just like with my real account. And I lose. I don't close a losing trade... I blow out both my real account and my simulated account, out of impatience.
I am definitely capable of making money, but the more I play the more impatient I get, so I should just weigh my choices. On the other hand, I must make sure that I get so good and develop such a profitable method that I will be able to make money no matter what stock I play, any stock. Not just out of every 10, but out of every single stock. Provided that I am rested and that I have the choice of not trading a stock. And provided that I can play on a daily basis (on the chart game).
Last edited:
Yamato
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cutting losses
Cutting losses is like a muscle, in that if it is not strong enough you have to train it and then it will get stronger. The chart game is a good exercise, because I have problems cutting losses there, too. The weakness in cutting losses in both the chart game and real trading is caused by my unwillingness to lose. In order to cut your losses, you have to acknowledge you lost on a given trade.
Cutting losses is like a muscle, in that if it is not strong enough you have to train it and then it will get stronger. The chart game is a good exercise, because I have problems cutting losses there, too. The weakness in cutting losses in both the chart game and real trading is caused by my unwillingness to lose. In order to cut your losses, you have to acknowledge you lost on a given trade.
Yamato
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chart game trading plan (note to self)
LONG ENTRIES
Not entering yet:
Entering at crossover of moving average:
Exiting in a discretionary way, as soon as you think it is overbought (you don't have to wait for another crossover, unless you want):
Exiting if entire daily candle on the other side of average:
SHORT ENTRIES
(Same as above)
Not entering yet:
Entering at crossover of moving average:
Exiting in a discretionary way, as soon as you think it is oversold (you don't have to wait for another crossover, unless you want):
Exiting if entire daily candle on the other side of average:
Now practice, practice, practice. Practice both refraining from entering too early and exiting when you're losing, as soon as the entire candle is beyond the average. These skills will be essential when you're trading real money. The muscles needed in real trading can be developed in this "chart game" simulation, regardless of the different timeframe and securities traded.
LONG ENTRIES
Not entering yet:
Entering at crossover of moving average:
Exiting in a discretionary way, as soon as you think it is overbought (you don't have to wait for another crossover, unless you want):
Exiting if entire daily candle on the other side of average:
SHORT ENTRIES
(Same as above)
Not entering yet:
Entering at crossover of moving average:
Exiting in a discretionary way, as soon as you think it is oversold (you don't have to wait for another crossover, unless you want):
Exiting if entire daily candle on the other side of average:
Now practice, practice, practice. Practice both refraining from entering too early and exiting when you're losing, as soon as the entire candle is beyond the average. These skills will be essential when you're trading real money. The muscles needed in real trading can be developed in this "chart game" simulation, regardless of the different timeframe and securities traded.
Last edited:
Yamato
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the steeper the rise/fall the shorter the average
The average periods from a default value of 33 were shortened to 12 in the example above: the rule seems to be that the more overstretched it is, the faster it moves, the more you can shorten your average, because you will need a shorter average to detect a change in trend. Even if this explanation didn't make sense, it graphically and intuitively makes sense to me, so i will use this approach ("note to self", no objections allowed).
The average periods from a default value of 33 were shortened to 12 in the example above: the rule seems to be that the more overstretched it is, the faster it moves, the more you can shorten your average, because you will need a shorter average to detect a change in trend. Even if this explanation didn't make sense, it graphically and intuitively makes sense to me, so i will use this approach ("note to self", no objections allowed).
Yamato
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paper trade part 3
Exit at 76.36, because there was a whole candle on the other side of average. I guess what seemed infallible was not. I would have lost 40 dollars plus commissions.
On the other hand, the 33 periods moving average would not have triggered a trade yet, so this must be noted.
Exit at 76.36, because there was a whole candle on the other side of average. I guess what seemed infallible was not. I would have lost 40 dollars plus commissions.
On the other hand, the 33 periods moving average would not have triggered a trade yet, so this must be noted.
Yamato
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paper trade 2 part 1
Ok, i am going to pretend i didn't fail the previous trade (anyway, I only would have lost 45 dollars) and I stuck with the 33 ma and enter now, short at 76.35sh:
Same exit rules as above.
As i said many times before, the ma is my medicine: it postpones my entries and it anticipates my exits (when losing), keeping me from my denial tendencies. And it postpones my exits when winning.
Ok, i am going to pretend i didn't fail the previous trade (anyway, I only would have lost 45 dollars) and I stuck with the 33 ma and enter now, short at 76.35sh:
Same exit rules as above.
As i said many times before, the ma is my medicine: it postpones my entries and it anticipates my exits (when losing), keeping me from my denial tendencies. And it postpones my exits when winning.
Last edited:
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