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megamuel
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Re: official commitment/resolve to not talk about some things
Hey Travis,
How are you? I'm a bit late in joining your journal and as I am a poor reader I am definately not going to read it all! However I have read little bits and also some of your previous journal and thought I'd try and make a contribution! In many of your posts you talk about your stress and insomnia. I can definitely sympathise with you on this. Have you been to see your doctor about this? If not I would strongly advise that you do. In some posts you refer to your Dad being the cause of some of your problems but you never know... You could by hypoglycemic or have an over-active thyroid. These are known to cause anxiety and stress and you should look into it as they could cause other problems. Just a thought.
I have had problems with anxiety but this is normally for specific situations when I feel I am being judged/tested etc. I recently overcame my anxiety about going to the doctors (ironic I know) to go in and ask for help with my anxiety and I have been prescribed some beta-blockers to try as and when needed. I feel a bit better already knowing there could be a way out! As for the insomnia, I have suffered this for a while. It was mainly because of my anxiety, I felt trapped in a life that I really didn't like. I would be up all night worrying about all the things I couldn't do because of my anxiety. I started taking melatonin and it has worked wonders for me. It is only available on prescription here although I ordered mine from France! However, I believe it is available off the shelf in America. You should try it, its the natural sleep hormone so it does work.
As for the trading. Correct me if I am wrong but I read somewhere that you have been trading for 12 (?) years, you have 60 systems that make money but you lose the money by discretionary trading? What is your main goal with trading? If it is making money, then why can't you stop the discretionary stuff and just trade your systems? Also, 60 systems sounds very over-complicated... I am trying to develop 1 working system and I find that stressful enough! Never mind designing and managing 60! Could you not cut out some of ones that are performing poorly? Simplify things a bit! If you can't stop the 'gambling' as you call it, maybe write down some rules of one of your better performing systems, include tick boxes, and only enter a trade if it satisfies those rules. Have some will power!
If all else fails, maybe you should consider selling some of your better performing systems! Heck, I'd buy one! Anyway, I can't really give you advice on trading, I'm an amateur! But I do think you should go to the doctors if you haven't already. Hope you don't take my post the wrong way - it's not meant as any sort of criticism I just genuinely want to help. You seems like a very decent, thoughtful person and I wish you all the very best.
Sam.
P.S. Oh and if you want to share one of your profitable systems - you know where I am!
Hey Travis,
How are you? I'm a bit late in joining your journal and as I am a poor reader I am definately not going to read it all! However I have read little bits and also some of your previous journal and thought I'd try and make a contribution! In many of your posts you talk about your stress and insomnia. I can definitely sympathise with you on this. Have you been to see your doctor about this? If not I would strongly advise that you do. In some posts you refer to your Dad being the cause of some of your problems but you never know... You could by hypoglycemic or have an over-active thyroid. These are known to cause anxiety and stress and you should look into it as they could cause other problems. Just a thought.
I have had problems with anxiety but this is normally for specific situations when I feel I am being judged/tested etc. I recently overcame my anxiety about going to the doctors (ironic I know) to go in and ask for help with my anxiety and I have been prescribed some beta-blockers to try as and when needed. I feel a bit better already knowing there could be a way out! As for the insomnia, I have suffered this for a while. It was mainly because of my anxiety, I felt trapped in a life that I really didn't like. I would be up all night worrying about all the things I couldn't do because of my anxiety. I started taking melatonin and it has worked wonders for me. It is only available on prescription here although I ordered mine from France! However, I believe it is available off the shelf in America. You should try it, its the natural sleep hormone so it does work.
As for the trading. Correct me if I am wrong but I read somewhere that you have been trading for 12 (?) years, you have 60 systems that make money but you lose the money by discretionary trading? What is your main goal with trading? If it is making money, then why can't you stop the discretionary stuff and just trade your systems? Also, 60 systems sounds very over-complicated... I am trying to develop 1 working system and I find that stressful enough! Never mind designing and managing 60! Could you not cut out some of ones that are performing poorly? Simplify things a bit! If you can't stop the 'gambling' as you call it, maybe write down some rules of one of your better performing systems, include tick boxes, and only enter a trade if it satisfies those rules. Have some will power!
If all else fails, maybe you should consider selling some of your better performing systems! Heck, I'd buy one! Anyway, I can't really give you advice on trading, I'm an amateur! But I do think you should go to the doctors if you haven't already. Hope you don't take my post the wrong way - it's not meant as any sort of criticism I just genuinely want to help. You seems like a very decent, thoughtful person and I wish you all the very best.
Sam.
P.S. Oh and if you want to share one of your profitable systems - you know where I am!
Yamato
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I will answer as I read or else I will forget some things to comment on and answers to give.
Thanks for your feedback and advice.
No, I have not seen a doctor. I don't believe in doctors unless I am almost dying.
No, nothing wrong with my physical health. It's all psychological. I haven't always been stressed out. And I am not always stressed out (or hyperactive). I can be fine given the right settings (without taking any medications).
I am now reading your line about your good experience with doctors and beta-blockers, but I've already wasted too much time with doctors. I don't trust them. Most people are idiots, and therefore most doctors are idiots. So I usually cannot go and listen to a doctor.
Yeah, I feel trapped, too, in a life I don't like. Same as you felt.
Yes, melatonin works for me, too. But now I am in a period of extra extra anxiety and it hasn't been working any more. Or, rather than "anxiety", it's rejection for my life, and rebellion towards my daily routine. I don't want to get up to go work, and therefore I also don't want to go to sleep in order to later get up and go to work.
Here you don't need a prescription for melatonin, nor anything else. I know several pharmacies in Rome who'll be happy to give me anything, as long as I give them money. So I've been trying a few drugs. I just tell the pharmacist "what's that drug with the "X" that helps you sleep?". She comes up with some name, and then I buy it. That's how I bought xanax.
Yes, I've been using melatonin for 5 years already. I first used it 13 years ago. I agree that it works.
Yes, I have been trading for 13 years.
I have... maybe 30 systems that make money, but I do have 60 systems that have made money in back-testing, but a part of them have not been making money in forward-testing.
Yes, despite having some good systems, I am too restless to let them trade, and I have ended up blowing out my account dozens of times. I always start small, so I get impatient, and I start interfering.
Yeah, I have some will power, of course. Or else I would not have built all those systems. There's some things right now I can't control though: compulsive gambling, scratching my head, slouching, sleeping at will.
I don't think I should simplify my systems and get rid of some. I should build another 60 of them, if anything. Diversification is powerful.
Selling my best systems? Absolutely a good idea, and in fact, thanks to this journal I have been contacted by some people who are investing their money on the best ones, even though it must immediately be added that right now we're incurring a drawdown.
Investing on the systems is even better than selling them, because I can make money without giving away my ideas.
I wish I could sell you something and make some money with it, but I have never done it and I would not know how to go about it. You'd want to see something before you buy it, and then, even if you don't buy it, you will know what it is.
Besides, you are telling me to have will power and be patient, but if you buy one of my systems, your patience will be tested, too, because on average my systems trade a few times per week. Some of them once a month.
Yeah, it's one of the nicest messages telling me to go to the psychiatrist. I am not offended. I've been told that many times before. I guess if you are not stupid in this world, everyone tells you to go to the psychiatrist. If you're goddamn moron, everyone will envy your peace of mind. But I can't help it, I've had complex parents who gave me a lot of things to worry about. I can't be an idiot, or a happy-go-lucky person. Too late.
Thanks for the advice, all the best to you as well. Keep writing here, whenever you feel like it. Since you're not writing on your journal anymore.
I am glad you noticed I am decent: it's because you're very intelligent for sure.
P.S.
Regarding selling you things, if you want to share your money with me, you know where I am, too. I never sold anything before, not even on ebay, so it would be the first time. For sure I won't rip you off, but I'd be very paranoid about being ripped off. Yeah, I am not used to being around honest people. Even though I have to say the British people are the most honest people I've met so far. I came to London at 15 once and we were struck by how you guys stayed on a line, without cutting it. I remember my friend was stealing at stores instead, and I even bought a pair of socks he had stolen. However, for being Italian, I am quite honest.
Thanks for your feedback and advice.
No, I have not seen a doctor. I don't believe in doctors unless I am almost dying.
No, nothing wrong with my physical health. It's all psychological. I haven't always been stressed out. And I am not always stressed out (or hyperactive). I can be fine given the right settings (without taking any medications).
I am now reading your line about your good experience with doctors and beta-blockers, but I've already wasted too much time with doctors. I don't trust them. Most people are idiots, and therefore most doctors are idiots. So I usually cannot go and listen to a doctor.
Yeah, I feel trapped, too, in a life I don't like. Same as you felt.
Yes, melatonin works for me, too. But now I am in a period of extra extra anxiety and it hasn't been working any more. Or, rather than "anxiety", it's rejection for my life, and rebellion towards my daily routine. I don't want to get up to go work, and therefore I also don't want to go to sleep in order to later get up and go to work.
Here you don't need a prescription for melatonin, nor anything else. I know several pharmacies in Rome who'll be happy to give me anything, as long as I give them money. So I've been trying a few drugs. I just tell the pharmacist "what's that drug with the "X" that helps you sleep?". She comes up with some name, and then I buy it. That's how I bought xanax.
Yes, I've been using melatonin for 5 years already. I first used it 13 years ago. I agree that it works.
Yes, I have been trading for 13 years.
I have... maybe 30 systems that make money, but I do have 60 systems that have made money in back-testing, but a part of them have not been making money in forward-testing.
Yes, despite having some good systems, I am too restless to let them trade, and I have ended up blowing out my account dozens of times. I always start small, so I get impatient, and I start interfering.
Yeah, I have some will power, of course. Or else I would not have built all those systems. There's some things right now I can't control though: compulsive gambling, scratching my head, slouching, sleeping at will.
I don't think I should simplify my systems and get rid of some. I should build another 60 of them, if anything. Diversification is powerful.
Selling my best systems? Absolutely a good idea, and in fact, thanks to this journal I have been contacted by some people who are investing their money on the best ones, even though it must immediately be added that right now we're incurring a drawdown.
Investing on the systems is even better than selling them, because I can make money without giving away my ideas.
I wish I could sell you something and make some money with it, but I have never done it and I would not know how to go about it. You'd want to see something before you buy it, and then, even if you don't buy it, you will know what it is.
Besides, you are telling me to have will power and be patient, but if you buy one of my systems, your patience will be tested, too, because on average my systems trade a few times per week. Some of them once a month.
Yeah, it's one of the nicest messages telling me to go to the psychiatrist. I am not offended. I've been told that many times before. I guess if you are not stupid in this world, everyone tells you to go to the psychiatrist. If you're goddamn moron, everyone will envy your peace of mind. But I can't help it, I've had complex parents who gave me a lot of things to worry about. I can't be an idiot, or a happy-go-lucky person. Too late.
Thanks for the advice, all the best to you as well. Keep writing here, whenever you feel like it. Since you're not writing on your journal anymore.
I am glad you noticed I am decent: it's because you're very intelligent for sure.
P.S.
Regarding selling you things, if you want to share your money with me, you know where I am, too. I never sold anything before, not even on ebay, so it would be the first time. For sure I won't rip you off, but I'd be very paranoid about being ripped off. Yeah, I am not used to being around honest people. Even though I have to say the British people are the most honest people I've met so far. I came to London at 15 once and we were struck by how you guys stayed on a line, without cutting it. I remember my friend was stealing at stores instead, and I even bought a pair of socks he had stolen. However, for being Italian, I am quite honest.
megamuel
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Ok, I hope you can read that. To follow on from that... In regard to being patient, I wouldn't have a problem with that. Right now I am not trading at all so I won't have a problem with a few trades a week!
Oh and just to clarify, I wasn't telling you to go and see a psychiatrist! Just a doctor if you felt like it. Also may I correct you on one point - I am definitely not intelligent! Far from it! But thanks anyway! Haha!
Anyway, best of luck and I'll call back from time to time!
Sam.
Oh and just to clarify, I wasn't telling you to go and see a psychiatrist! Just a doctor if you felt like it. Also may I correct you on one point - I am definitely not intelligent! Far from it! But thanks anyway! Haha!
Anyway, best of luck and I'll call back from time to time!
Sam.
Yamato
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method based on 2 moving averages and my discretion
Yes, thank you. I will read the contract above as soon as I get home from work, and will answer in detail. First I have to ask those other partners anyway. I can't sell anything unless they also agree to. I will show them the contract, too.
I just woke up with an awesome discretionary method, very simple and that might turn my compulsive gambling into a money making activity.
On any of my 13 futures, I will seize the perceived top/bottom picking opportunities as before, but I will add a 4 hour 1-minute timeframe chart and 2 moving averages, 5 simple and 20 simple (to be modified, possibly). As in the picture below:
My discretion is good, but I've always had a problem with anticipating entries and postponing exits (until blowing out my account).
Now I will try to make myself enter only when - on the 4 hour long 1 minute chart - I will see the quick 5 period moving average cross above (or at least when it's already above) the slow 20 period moving average. I will exit whenever I want, but not later than when the quick average crosses below the slow average.
Recapitulating: I can enter any time as long as fast ma > slow ma and I can exit any time but not later than fast ma < slow ma.
If I'll do this, I'll make money.
You see, I've always had the intuition to see an extremely overbought/oversold situation. What I never had is the patience to wait for the right entry moment and the resolve to exit quickly when I was losing.
With this simple method, I will get those two things I was missing, and with my knowledge of the markets, I should definitely be able to make those 100 dollars per day which could support my expensive lifestyle.
Now the biggest problem will be not to forget this morning intuition, especially since I will also incur losses because of it, and I tend to abandon a method as soon as I incur a loss because of it.
Maybe, you (megamuel) and I could meet online and trade this method together, so it would give me the discipline to stick with it for a while. We'd both be losing our own real money at the same time on the same trades. If you want to do it, let me know. With the premise that so far as a discretionary trader I've lost practically every month of the past 13 years, and blown out my account dozens of times.
Yes, thank you. I will read the contract above as soon as I get home from work, and will answer in detail. First I have to ask those other partners anyway. I can't sell anything unless they also agree to. I will show them the contract, too.
I just woke up with an awesome discretionary method, very simple and that might turn my compulsive gambling into a money making activity.
On any of my 13 futures, I will seize the perceived top/bottom picking opportunities as before, but I will add a 4 hour 1-minute timeframe chart and 2 moving averages, 5 simple and 20 simple (to be modified, possibly). As in the picture below:
My discretion is good, but I've always had a problem with anticipating entries and postponing exits (until blowing out my account).
Now I will try to make myself enter only when - on the 4 hour long 1 minute chart - I will see the quick 5 period moving average cross above (or at least when it's already above) the slow 20 period moving average. I will exit whenever I want, but not later than when the quick average crosses below the slow average.
Recapitulating: I can enter any time as long as fast ma > slow ma and I can exit any time but not later than fast ma < slow ma.
If I'll do this, I'll make money.
You see, I've always had the intuition to see an extremely overbought/oversold situation. What I never had is the patience to wait for the right entry moment and the resolve to exit quickly when I was losing.
With this simple method, I will get those two things I was missing, and with my knowledge of the markets, I should definitely be able to make those 100 dollars per day which could support my expensive lifestyle.
Now the biggest problem will be not to forget this morning intuition, especially since I will also incur losses because of it, and I tend to abandon a method as soon as I incur a loss because of it.
Maybe, you (megamuel) and I could meet online and trade this method together, so it would give me the discipline to stick with it for a while. We'd both be losing our own real money at the same time on the same trades. If you want to do it, let me know. With the premise that so far as a discretionary trader I've lost practically every month of the past 13 years, and blown out my account dozens of times.
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Yamato
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DAMN IT!!! I Just tried to write a reply then my screens froze up half way through!!! I think I managed to get a screen shot just before I lost it, I will try and attach it....
Ok, I got home from work and I will now read your "contract" (see image above). I will reply as I read, as usual.
Yeah, don't worry, I don't have those thyroid or other problems. I am totally healthy, except mentally, and that is because I refuse to be an idiot, and live a carefree life. On the other hand, as soon as I'll quit my job, where I work my ass off, despite never being promoted, I will get healthy again.
Depression and anxiety are not really a problem either for me. I can take it pretty well. If I am too anxious, I just skip work. Depression... I don't know what it is. Maybe I have always been depressed, but in a very stable way then. I've never felt my depression was a problem. The problem is death. It's only healthy to be depressed about life. It's more insane to be happy and serene.
Regarding the systems, it doesn't work like that. The 30 that didn't make money could be just as good, so I have to keep monitoring them. And the 30 that worked could be just as bad, and start losing from now on.
I can't stop the discretionary stuff, because - as I said - it is like scratching my head and some things are beyond my control. Maybe I could make it profitable. But I'll keep on doing it most likely. Also, there's a remote hope in myself that I'll make money, and the great frustrations about my job keep me gambling, hoping for a way out.
If I had 100k, you would be right in your advice, and maybe I'd be able to quit my job pretty soon because of that capital being invested with the systems. But I have less than 5k in my account, so I can't do anything with my systems. And, most of all, I can't just say "the systems will take care of everything", because with such a small capital, they won't invest much and won't bring much profit.
I show a lot of things about my systems on the 3000 posts I wrote. But it would be unfair to ask me to sum them up here again. Anyone who goes through the trouble of reading the 3000 posts will deserve to know what I say about them (the same applies for all other threads on this forum, usually by people more profitable than me).
Yeah, your advice is what I thought of, too. I strap myself to the chair (they won't let me do that at work), and put a helmet on my head (I can't do that either). For compulsive gambling, the problem is also that I probably want to keep trying, hoping to find a way to make money. So forget cutting my hands off, which is what you were probably going to suggest.
Yeah, your request for a proof of results is reasonable. I don't have any yet: so far only proof of unprofitability. But what would you do next? Wire me your capital so I invest it? Sounds crazy. But how else can we do it? How can I lend my systems to you without disclosing their secrets? That's usually the problem.
However, if you want to meet me on msn messenger we could do some discretionary trades together. And they will go better than if I were on my own.
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Yamato
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ng trade according to fast ma slow ma method
Ok, since you're not contacting me to trade via msn, then I will post it here.
Here's my first imaginary paper discretionary trade, according to my new method, whose only requirement is fast ma and slow ma, any lengths. Can't enter unless we're above, can't stay unless we're above. Anything else allowed.
I looked at my 13 futures:
EUR
GBP
ES
YM
GBL
CL
GC
JPY
ZN
AUD
CAD
CHF
NG
And I spotted an extremely oversold NG.
I adapted my fast and slow mas on its 1 minute timeframe chart and I'd take all long signals especially the next one. Instead of using what I spoke about this morning (the mas appeared in a dream to me), which was 5 and 20 period, I used 2 and 5 period, much faster. But that's what the chart requires.
Right now I don't have the margin, because my systems opened a trade on the GBL.
But if I did, I'd do it. It would be an improvement compared to my usual gambling.
Let's now see how the next crossover start to crossover end go in terms of profit.
Wrong. They are crossing one another all the time, and I'd be exiting and re-entering too many times, even good trades. Need slower ones.
Ok, since you're not contacting me to trade via msn, then I will post it here.
Here's my first imaginary paper discretionary trade, according to my new method, whose only requirement is fast ma and slow ma, any lengths. Can't enter unless we're above, can't stay unless we're above. Anything else allowed.
I looked at my 13 futures:
EUR
GBP
ES
YM
GBL
CL
GC
JPY
ZN
AUD
CAD
CHF
NG
And I spotted an extremely oversold NG.
I adapted my fast and slow mas on its 1 minute timeframe chart and I'd take all long signals especially the next one. Instead of using what I spoke about this morning (the mas appeared in a dream to me), which was 5 and 20 period, I used 2 and 5 period, much faster. But that's what the chart requires.
Right now I don't have the margin, because my systems opened a trade on the GBL.
But if I did, I'd do it. It would be an improvement compared to my usual gambling.
Let's now see how the next crossover start to crossover end go in terms of profit.
Wrong. They are crossing one another all the time, and I'd be exiting and re-entering too many times, even good trades. Need slower ones.
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Adamus
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Travis, let me jump in here: with your discretionary trading, which you've described before, and just now here including some MAs on a 1min chart, you can trade but you don't have a good exit mechanism apart from:
Does that really represent a profitable edge? Did you try that before?
I'd be interested in joining you to try this out with you on skype. A couple of simulated trades and then if I'm confident you're calling the right shots, then for real, and maybe I'd pick up something from you.
It also seems like a good idea to create a system based on the MA cross-overs that you describe - and when you identify the market in the right situation, you turn the system on and let it do the entry and exit.
Yamato
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Yes, let's do it. I will meet you on skype within the next few days. Right now let's just work here on the right averages first. Because I am really at the beginning. However the concept that cannot change and has to preserved is this:
1) top and bottom picking on overstretched markets
2) slow and fast average: their relative position has to be in favor. Fast above slow for a long. Fast below slow for a short.
3) everything else is discretionary.
I have been trying everything from 1-minute to 5-minute timeframes, and the problem is always the same: how do we keep from exiting a good trade just because the ma gets crossed and re-crossed repeatedly?
I am afraid we need to add another element similar to a stoploss.
4) we enter at crossovers and also exit at crossovers but only beyond a certain profit/loss.
Say we enter at the usual ma crossover, but there's an opposite crossover 5 minutes later with a loss of 50 dollars or a profit of 50 dollars. We don't exit unless we have a loss or profit > 200 dollars.
Ok?
And then we cannot add any more rules or the whole system loses its strength.
We should meet on skype and do a whole week of paper trades.
I think - but this is not one of 3 rules - we shoud prefer the 5-minute chart and set up 2 days of it (on TWS). And for averages we should use 5 and 20 periods. The same would apply on the 1-minute chart.
No wait - all wrong.
We need the 4 hour chart on 1-minute timeframe. We need as much details as possible. No point in getting out too slowly. We observe all charts. Even 3 months, but we enter and exit with precision.
So I'd say the averages will be, roughly, 10 and 30 on the 1-minute chart, which IB TWS allows usually for only up to 4 hours (otherwise it's unclear). The rule for exits is 200 dollars loss/profit at the most, but it will be less for smaller futures, such as the GBP.
Look, this would even have worked on the NG of earlier:
Obviously we're not entering at all crossovers, but only the ones that look best. Like the one at the bottom of the valley. But this will be all judged in a discretionary way. I can't write rules or it will work worse.
1) top and bottom picking on overstretched markets
2) slow and fast average: their relative position has to be in favor. Fast above slow for a long. Fast below slow for a short.
3) everything else is discretionary.
I have been trying everything from 1-minute to 5-minute timeframes, and the problem is always the same: how do we keep from exiting a good trade just because the ma gets crossed and re-crossed repeatedly?
I am afraid we need to add another element similar to a stoploss.
4) we enter at crossovers and also exit at crossovers but only beyond a certain profit/loss.
Say we enter at the usual ma crossover, but there's an opposite crossover 5 minutes later with a loss of 50 dollars or a profit of 50 dollars. We don't exit unless we have a loss or profit > 200 dollars.
Ok?
And then we cannot add any more rules or the whole system loses its strength.
We should meet on skype and do a whole week of paper trades.
I think - but this is not one of 3 rules - we shoud prefer the 5-minute chart and set up 2 days of it (on TWS). And for averages we should use 5 and 20 periods. The same would apply on the 1-minute chart.
No wait - all wrong.
We need the 4 hour chart on 1-minute timeframe. We need as much details as possible. No point in getting out too slowly. We observe all charts. Even 3 months, but we enter and exit with precision.
So I'd say the averages will be, roughly, 10 and 30 on the 1-minute chart, which IB TWS allows usually for only up to 4 hours (otherwise it's unclear). The rule for exits is 200 dollars loss/profit at the most, but it will be less for smaller futures, such as the GBP.
Look, this would even have worked on the NG of earlier:
Obviously we're not entering at all crossovers, but only the ones that look best. Like the one at the bottom of the valley. But this will be all judged in a discretionary way. I can't write rules or it will work worse.
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Adamus
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The more that's fixed, the better. You (including me learning how) have to identify the overstretched markets though. You outlined your methodology here before, and Brettus added some info too and it didn't look easy to program - very discretionary.
Yamato
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Ok, so far - even though I defined the moving average afterwards - that trade on the NG would have worked. It seemed oversold, and I would have picked it.
30 ticks, 300 dollars. A bracket of 150 dollars before using a moving average exit would have been fine. We can also notice how if we had entered on the first sharp rise, which could have happened, we would have lost. So the lesson could be that it's best to enter a gradual (second) rise rather than a sharp (first) rise. But I don't want to insert yet another rule because otherwise I would wreck the discretionary freedom given by this system.
And I am not going to back-test it either, because this in turn would make me code univocal rules which would interfere with my discretion. I may do that only once I find out I am always making the same discretionary choices and that they can be coded.
30 ticks, 300 dollars. A bracket of 150 dollars before using a moving average exit would have been fine. We can also notice how if we had entered on the first sharp rise, which could have happened, we would have lost. So the lesson could be that it's best to enter a gradual (second) rise rather than a sharp (first) rise. But I don't want to insert yet another rule because otherwise I would wreck the discretionary freedom given by this system.
And I am not going to back-test it either, because this in turn would make me code univocal rules which would interfere with my discretion. I may do that only once I find out I am always making the same discretionary choices and that they can be coded.
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Yamato
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Power outage on the US server. The UPS software turned it off after just 5 minutes. So I first of all had to uninstall this piece of crap software, and then I had to do a backup of what I had here and upload it there and get everything running again, copying the moving averages values I had here, and using the file I had here altogether, because there were trades open. And I hope everything will run perfectly.
Today the "10 best systems" lost more money, as they've been doing quite often for the past 2 months. The GBL, the best of them all, lost 1000 euros this week in 3 straight losses. It never did worse in a whole year.
Very tired from work at the office, work at home, no rewards. It seems like the systems are never good enough, and after all these years of work no money yet.
When I was trading from home in 2008, with less than 20 systems, I got lucky and turned 3500 into 24000 in 3 months, with no forward-testing and taking all signals as they came (betting all capital on the next signal, more or less). Then I lost it all on one trade that I didn't want to close. I doubled up on that GBP losing trade, and I went on vacation for a month.
Now that I have all this technology, server in the US, UPS everywhere, all the forward-testing knowledge, all the extra tests I've done, in the same 3 months my 10 best systems (out of 60) have only lost money.
I was just lucky, but I really wasted all my luck in 2008 because I seem to have run out of it.
I've gotten used to never being rewarded at work. I just work hard, and no one ever gives me a prize. But now the systems I was counting on to get rewarded are denying it, too. It's hard to not get impatient and force the market to give me what I deserve. Which is another of the many causes of my compulsive gambling.
On top of everything, this yearning for great rewards came from how I was brought up by my dad, who never told me once "good job", or "well, done". So he got me started running harder and pushing myself harder for bigger and bigger rewards, so that now I cannot just settle for a regular average life, after all this running.
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Adamus
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I never knew the word 'univocal' until you used it. I discovered it has almost the same meaning as the word 'unequivocal'
What do you mean by a 'bracket'? You enter on a market order and place a stop and wait for the moving avgs to trigger the exit as long as the stop isn't hit? To my mind, a bracket is an OCO pair, so you must mean placing a target and a stop OCO to exit.
I wasn't suggesting that you or I code the discretionary part to identify the stretched market conditions. I phrased it badly. I wanted to say that it was too difficult to code.
What time of day are you thinking of for this? You'll scan the markets when you finish work I guess?
Yamato
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Climax Blues Band - I Love You
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZub3M3jSdw
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climax_Blues_Band
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZub3M3jSdw
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climax_Blues_Band
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Adamus
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Travis, I reckon the best thing to do is to look at those markets as we did and when you identify one that satisfies your conditions as likely to retrace, set up a trade with a big stop loss (I mean one for catastrophes, not one that's likely to get hit), and a market order to close the position 5 minutes before the market closes. After that, walk away from it. Close TWS and go out for dinner or do some exercise or something for the rest of the day.
Yamato
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I had written a long post about my new discretionary trading system and the solution to the problems you witnessed last Friday.
However I removed it, because recently I've been increasingly feeling that, in order to be totally serious and committed about discretionary trading - something that somehow I have not been doing (unlike automated trading, where I've always been serious) - I need to step away from forums and chats for a little while. I feel that if I write a post about what I am thinking, it will become trivial and I will sabotage myself, somehow. The chat we had Friday was a clear indication of how superficial and reckless I can be. I am not saying that if I am not in a chat, I am not reckless, but chats and forums definitely do not help the process of focusing. They help discussing things with others, and explaining them to oneself, but right now I just need total focus, and commitment.
So I will come back and talk about my discretionary trading only when I will have learned how to be profitable and I will have gotten used to my new method. I don't want to expose now and here my discretionary ideas, and get distracted by people's objections. I know they will work if I am focused and I don't need objections, but just focus.
In the meanwhile I can talk about either automated trading or post my usual videos.
However I removed it, because recently I've been increasingly feeling that, in order to be totally serious and committed about discretionary trading - something that somehow I have not been doing (unlike automated trading, where I've always been serious) - I need to step away from forums and chats for a little while. I feel that if I write a post about what I am thinking, it will become trivial and I will sabotage myself, somehow. The chat we had Friday was a clear indication of how superficial and reckless I can be. I am not saying that if I am not in a chat, I am not reckless, but chats and forums definitely do not help the process of focusing. They help discussing things with others, and explaining them to oneself, but right now I just need total focus, and commitment.
So I will come back and talk about my discretionary trading only when I will have learned how to be profitable and I will have gotten used to my new method. I don't want to expose now and here my discretionary ideas, and get distracted by people's objections. I know they will work if I am focused and I don't need objections, but just focus.
In the meanwhile I can talk about either automated trading or post my usual videos.
Adamus
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Yes I saw that it had gone after I replied to it.
I appreciate your point of view. However NG is 3% off already. I should check up on what you posted a couple of months back when we were talking about this. Edit: just looked at NG's daily chart. Seems to be in the middle of a multi-day dive, so I'd guess a retracement isn't going to happen until NY pm session - if the charge downwards runs out of steam.
I appreciate your point of view. However NG is 3% off already. I should check up on what you posted a couple of months back when we were talking about this. Edit: just looked at NG's daily chart. Seems to be in the middle of a multi-day dive, so I'd guess a retracement isn't going to happen until NY pm session - if the charge downwards runs out of steam.
Yamato
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This is a fascinating non-religious documentary on jesus:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqp2bgB5DmE
Here's another good one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqp2bgB5DmE
Here's another good one:
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