my journal 2

[Yamato]

Franco Battiato l'era del Cinghiale bianco

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2QjxWtN3vg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franco_Battiato

 

[Yamato]

"cocktail music"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riders_on_the_Storm

The Doors' former producer, Paul Rothchild, did not like the album, or the song, because it was too much like "cocktail music", which was why the band produced it themselves.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEkhWspfwBA

Riders on the Storm reminds me a bit this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prelude_(Deodato_album)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deodato_2

 

[Yamato]

short on CL

Entering short at the next 33 ma crossover:



And staying short with the usual rules, until the following crossover.

Even today, with a bit of discretion and a lot of moving average, the 33 ma has saved my ass several times from early entries. I know it will also saved me from early exits and late exits (in case the trade fails).

The present recipe is this: 16 to 17.30 CET, a 33 moving average and a pinch of discretion.

The pinch of discretion saved my ass at the first red circle (see picture below). The moving average saved my ass everywhere else and especially at the second red circle.

 

[Yamato]

exited

I decided to exit early and grab that 300 dollars of profit, because the YM wasn't falling as much (oh, that's another ingredient: observing correlated YM and GBL while you look at CL). For my second day back into discretionary trading 300 dollars is not bad. It will pay the server's rent. If I do this every day I could even quit my job. Now I must keep calm and not switch into gambling mode, and do more trades just because I am feeling omnipotent. I need to wait another 24 hours before I can reason again.

I didn't wait until the next crossover as I had said, because I am still insecure and I didn't want that "huge" profit to evaporate. That profit can cover the stoplosses for the next five trades, if they all turned out to be losses.

And now some music to celebrate my win (this could be a very important day in my life):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wave_(song)

(all discretionary, no objections please)

 

[Yamato]

good thing i exited

It turned out it was a good thing: I made 10 ticks more (the first red circle is the exit I made) than if I had waited for the new crossover (the second red circle is the exit I didn't make).



The moving average is now going to become a part of my daily life. I will even cross the street according to it.

 

[Yamato]

upcoming trade

I'll go home and when I get there I will do a LONG trade on the CL, according to the 33 ma, like yesterday. It looks very promising.

 

[Yamato]

I lost my mind. I went in once correctly, then twice... then I got addicted to it again, and when the loss (it went down) happened I wasn't ready to accept it. I cannot really handle more than a couple of trades per day. Disappointed with myself.

 

[brettus]

I lost my mind. I went in once correctly, then twice... then I got addicted to it again, and when the loss (it went down) happened I wasn't ready to accept it. I cannot really handle more than a couple of trades per day. Disappointed with myself.

Seems like you are still making good progress. I think the discussion that I had with friend in the past was that you shouldn't try to overtrade, but if the setup is there you have to do it. Next time 3 trades will work maybe more. Stick to the plan. If the plan works then stick by it.

 

[Yamato]

Yeah, then it would be one trade per day. That's what works with me. Or, even better, two trades per week. The problem is that if I win (and I do by doing that), I want to do more. So what works is not what feels right. That's the constant problem. I am a perfectionist, and I cannot stand the thought of missing opportunities. And I have to miss opportunities in order to stay mentally balanced.

Eventually, I did place yet another trade - actually it was the previous trade, which I hadn't exited - and basically I managed to end the day profitable. But that is not the point. The point is that I was out of control and had no stoploss in place any more. It could have gone down 200 ticks and I would not have done a thing. It's a good example of a bad trading method that was (today) profitable. Whereas, had I used the stoploss, it would have been a good method that would have been (today) unprofitable. The point is not winning today, but having a method that will win in the long run. And maybe - subconsciously - I am too focused on winning every time (perfectionism, and other things due to my personality) to be able to see the big picture, and that by wanting to win every time, I will blow out my account every once in a while.

 

[Yamato]

complaint and strategy against neighbors slamming door

I had stopped complaining for a while, but now I need it.

I live in an apartment in Rome, and I have these two neighbours on my floor, around 30 years old, a man and a woman. From Sicily.

They've been slamming the door for two years, ever since I've been living here. Occasionally in the hallway I find icecream on the floor, and various trash. They're definitely rude people. The real question is on whether they do it on purpose. I am afraid they don't do it on purpose. They have nothing against us. They just slam the door out of carelessness. This is the worst kind of people, because they bother even before trying to. And why, because they don't care about you, so I have the feeling that even if I told them, they might not care enough to stop, or they wouldn't have done it in the first place. If someone spits on the floor, are you going to try and tell them? It's very unlikely that they will listen to you.

So I've started my own strategy:

1) there is no way I will go and leave a note under their door.
2) there is no way I will call the building administrator and complain to him.
3) there is no way I will complain to the doorman.
4) there is no way I will ring their bell and speak to them.

All the above are too demeaning to myself. I don't feel I have to ask these animals the "favor" to not slam the door.

I want them to come to me, and then I won't say "hi", and I won't interact with them, so they'll know there's something wrong and evaluate whether to make it right or not.

However, we're not interacting much, because I rarely meet them.

So I've decided to gradually increase the pressure and cause an accident, something that will annoy them, too, and make them interact with me. My risk/reward estimate is that things cannot get worse.

I can't slam the door as they do, because that would bother everyone (floors above and below) and it would also be stupid to act like them, and even ruin my door by slamming it so hard.

So I thought of something else.

They throw trash? I am throwing trash, too. Let's see if they dare to leave a note or complain to anyone about other people being rude - other than them - are they the only ones who can be rude? If they do, I will say "oh ok, so rude people bother you? But it's ok to slam the door 20 times a day for 2 years...".

I don't know how it will turn out. However, for sure I will not go to jail, and for sure they cannot slam their door any harder. So it's a win-win situation.

So far I've left a couple of cigarette butts, some ground, some small branches, some paper, some boiled rice (hoping she'll slip on it), some tree sticks.

It has to be a small thing so I don't go to jail (maybe I'll stop with the boiled rice) but it has to be persistent so they notice it and they get bothered by it.

The only problem is if they are so careless and stupid that they still don't have any idea that they are bothering me.

Another funny thing that happened I think is that she just forgot the keys and she came up with the elevator while I was throwing some ground on the floor. If she saw me so much the better because I was in my underwear - the more she thinks I am disgusting and out of control the better, because that's exactly how they appear to me: disgusting, out of control, animals basically. By being a nice and polite neighbour I've only got the door slammed in my face so far. So why not try to appear like a dangerous animal in his underwear.

I don't want to ever see that whore saying "hi" to me and smile at me. It has to be clear that we are enemies and that they cannot expect anything good from me in the future. They cannot keep on pretending they are good neighbours.

They slam the door over 30 times per day (I only hear it about 20 times per day, because I am not always at home) because they have guests several times per week. They come and go from the house about 4 times per day on average. That's the door being slammed 8 times already. If you add the 5 guests who come and go several times... on average 30 door-slammed per day, very hard.

I just heard how she slammed the door after her friends left and they were in the hallway just 4 meters away. So maybe she is a rude bitch after all. I can't get rid of the doubt that they slam it a little harder just to spite me. Why can't these people just die?

They were arguing yesterday and she was crying this morning... what happened? Why can't the bad people all die?

That's why I need money, to move away from these animals.

 

[brettus]

Re: complaint and strategy against neighbors slamming door

Gotta automate it all

 

[Yamato]

Yeah, good point. But can I automate the process without back-testing and without knowing what works?

I only have forward-testing. I know what has worked in my own living. But that is not enough to be positive about the best behaviour.

What if throwing one cigarette per day in the hallway causes things to go wrong? I need to improvise because I can't backtest and cannot find out the optimal behaviour. On the other hand... you gave me something to think about.

For example, for sure if I do not trash the hallway, there will be no losses. But the only loss will be my peace. There's no risk and no loss, but no gain. They'll keep on slamming the door forever. I want things to escalate and I will only stop if I risk getting killed or jailed.

 

[Yamato]

neighbours part 2

I put some toilet paper in the hallway early this morning. Something will happen sooner or later.

 

[Yamato]

cigarette butt

I left a cigarette butt on the hallway just a few minutes ago. I picked it up off the street as i was coming home.

They first have to complain about having a dirty neighbour, then we'll negotiate a deal, whereby I stop throwing trash and they stop slamming the door.

 

[Yamato]

I failed again to exit upon crossover, for the fourth day in a row, except this time I didn't get as lucky and I lost - as usual - twice what i had made in the previous 3 lucky sessions. I almost did exit, but i hesitated, and the loss got soon too big to exit as painlessly as i could have, had i not hesitated.

At least I have learned to not enter too easily. I still not have not mastered the ability to exit at the crossover when things go wrong.

But I've been going in the right direction. I just need a few more accounts to blow out, and I'll have learned it.

At least now I am not going all over the place and I am fighting a battle with me and my ma. If I can learn the right relationship with my ma, i know i can make money. And despite the long wait, it's not a small thing.

 

[Yamato]

I am not sure if the chart game is a good thing or a bad thing. If the whole problem is focusing on the relationship of entries and exits with my moving average, the chart game will distract me because the dynamics of it are different from the CL I trade. They are similar and the chart game enriches the comparisons and analysis, but if I am so retarded that I can't get one right, I should maybe not get distracted by the other.

This effort will require total focus of me. In fact I am indeed retarded and what makes me so stupid is my pride, my unwillingness to take losses is blinding me while I trade.

The focus is needed to answer these questions:

1) which crossover should i follow in entering?
2) what do i do since my ma seems to be crossed against me?

When to exit if you're making money is almost an irrelevant question. The biggest questions are when to enter a trade, and when to exit an unprofitable trade.

And I am worst at answering the "when to exit" question.

(Discretionary note to self: no objections allowed).

 

[Yamato]

Another interesting stuff I was thinking about is how many trades do i really take because I would bet my balls on it? And how many trades do I take because I simply don't want to miss a potential gain?

Almost all trades I take are because I don't want to miss a gain. Then, a few minutes later, I always spot, every day, the one trade I would bet my balls on. But it's too late because I am already in a trade.

Also, all trades that I would bet my balls on, whether I make them or not are usually wins.

So yes, the moving average is a great medecine for curing my impatience, but it would be even better if I only took the good crossovers based on "bet my balls on it or not", which are very easy questions to answer, but I am too impatient to ask them.

For example, if we're in a tight range for two hours and the ma gets crossed 10 times, then that is NOT a "bet my balls" trade.

If we've fallen for 3 days 200 ticks per day, and we're starting to slow down in the fall and reverse: that is a "bet my balls" trade. It's a trade begging you and it's almost always a winner. You can't go looking for a trade. The trade has to beg you.

I wonder if I will ever be determined, disciplined enough to be like that. So far I've always been subconsciously focused on "can't miss a win" and "can't take a loss".

But I think I am changing. I've been losing for too long, and I realize I've been spending too many years working at the bank. No matter how many self-defeating tendencies and habits I have (whether I do it on purpose or not), I am also getting tired of losing. And, since I am not going to stop trading, there's only one way out: by winning and making money. I am not going to be happy by just quitting discretionary trading. It's been haunting me for years. While I kept working on automated trading, subconsciously I've never given up on my task of learning how to trade. Or rather: learning how to only make the profitable trades. Or rather: learning how to trade profitably.

Finally, things may get better simply because as I am aging I am getting more patient and calm. And knowledge has increased: I know too many things about trading to not put it all together and produce money with it. It's just a question of wanting it now and using a little patience. I've been watching the markets long enough to realize they're going to be there. That opportunities are always there and that I won't miss anything if I take my time. Usually I've been rushing in, and I almost always found that I entered too early. Between 4 and 5 PM CET the markets decide whether to go up or down. The average tells you what they've decided, you just have to follow it. If you don't follow it, you lose money.

I've almost become calm enough to stand the neighbours slamming the door. A door being slammed until recently could have sent me into a trading rampage.

I used to be like this:

And now I am becoming like this:

 

[JRP2891]

So what works is not what feels right.

And I have to miss opportunities in order to stay mentally balanced.

It's a good example of a bad trading method that was (today) profitable. Whereas, had I used the stoploss, it would have been a good method that would have been (today) unprofitable. The point is not winning today, but having a method that will win in the long run.

And maybe - subconsciously - I am too focused on winning every time (perfectionism, and other things due to my personality) to be able to see the big picture, and that by wanting to win every time, I will blow out my account every once in a while.

These are the exact thoughts you need to be having constantly in order to attain the correct mindset to be consistently profitable in the long run.

The closest i've heard you sound to being on the right tracks, nice work Travis.

 

[brettus]

I think you need to keep losing until you get frustrated with yourself and do something about it. Just dont lose everything before you realise. i tell you and you should find out for yourself. Poker gives you patience. It is more of a test of your patience anyway. It will give you a good idea of how patient you are.

Everyone does these things though. tries to make the 5% monthly target in a day. Well most people anyway. You will miss the big opportunities because you jumped on another trade. That's just how it is. If you epect 20 trades a month you will trade 40 at least. That's humans self destructive nature.

 

[JRP2891]

Or rather: learning how to only make the profitable trades. Or rather: learning how to trade profitably.

Glad you corrected your first thought here. If you're constantly trying to avoid losses, guess what, you'll lose. There's no way to avoid them, embrace them if they're a result of valid trades in your strategy.