Making Money Trading

[trader_dante]

Something TD said once - and I'll paraphrase roughly. If price keeps testing a level, it wants to go through. This is what I am thinking looking at USDCAD. It wants to break above resistance at 100, and I think there is a good enough chance that it will. Again, I'm glad I'm still in the trade.

Good trade Lurker!

I really enjoyed following your thinking through with that trade and in particular what happened immediately after you wrote that statement above...

 

[ivot]

I'd appreciate some comments from T2W members on my management of this trade. I felt I did well and followed my rules, but some suggestions and feedback would be appreciated.

It looks like you are experimenting with my suggestion of trailing your stop above/below hourly price bars lurker. No matter what stop approach you use you are going to miss out on moves from time to time. It happens. I think the important thing is to have a consistent approach.

The only other thing I would have suggested is that you might have considered going long again once the price bar that stopped you out had finished forming. I would have placed a buy one tick above that bar that and my stop one tick below. That way if you get filled long your still going with the trend. Other then that good trades!

 

[trader_dante]

Wheat *Trade update*

I am moving stops on all positions to just beneath this pin bar that has formed on the daily TF.

 

[lurkerlurker]

I am moving stops on all positions to just beneath this pin bar that has formed on the daily TF.

Very good. Are you also putting additional stops under that to reverse short? Also, do you think I am on the right track to be profitable in 2008?

 

[trader_dante]

Very good. Are you also putting additional stops under that to reverse short?

No, I am not going short on this right now.

Also, do you think I am on the right track to be profitable in 2008?

Lurker, if you were listed, I'd buy calls in you

 

[pbb2577]

Hi TD,

Thanks for you assistance to date.

I am interested in your opinion on higher time frames, such monthly charts. I have come across an example of a pin bar formed on the monthly Oil chart and would welcome your comments. It appears to fit all of the criteria required, except I am a little unsure of the relvance to a higher time frame.

I would welcome your comments.

PB

 

[trader_dante]

Hi TD,

Thanks for you assistance to date.

I am interested in your opinion on higher time frames, such monthly charts. I have come across an example of a pin bar formed on the monthly Oil chart and would welcome your comments. It appears to fit all of the criteria required, except I am a little unsure of the relvance to a higher time frame.

I would welcome your comments.

PB

Hi PB,

This method works across all TFs. You will find the same price action setups on the monthly that you find on the 5m TF. They are all, in my experience, equally valid. It just requires a far greater degree of patience and discipline to play the higher ones.

Tom

 

[tafita]

orders

Hi TD

Just one question, if an order to open is not filled on the next bar, how long do you wait for the order to open? For example, on CAC40 today on 1HR at 10 AM a pin bar formed which I took in error by opening a market order. The stop order would have been filled three bars later.

Any thoughts

Tafita

 

[Nordtrader]

Something TD said once - and I'll paraphrase roughly. If price keeps testing a level, it wants to go through. This is what I am thinking looking at USDCAD. It wants to break above resistance at 100, and I think there is a good enough chance that it will. Again, I'm glad I'm still in the trade.

Good trade Lurker!

I really enjoyed following your thinking through with that trade and in particular what happened immediately after you wrote that statement above...

I'm a little confused by this. Saying that "if price keeps testing a level, it wants to go through" - is this not the same situation as where a price momentum is repeatedly rejected at resistance / support thus validating that S/R level and therefore making it less likely it will be broken? How do we know the difference? Would be great to better understand thinking on this.
Thanks,
NT

 

[trader_dante]

Hi TD

Just one question, if an order to open is not filled on the next bar, how long do you wait for the order to open? For example, on CAC40 today on 1HR at 10 AM a pin bar formed which I took in error by opening a market order. The stop order would have been filled three bars later.

Any thoughts

Tafita

This is discretionary. I have given some examples throughout the thread of how I approach this. To sum it up: my personal approach is to watch the price action on the succeeding bars. If the high/low of the left eye is taken out then I will often but not always pull the order.

Price action that might keep my order in is a succession of inside bars, after the pin bar, which indicates an imminent break in one direction.

 

[trader_dante]

Something TD said once - and I'll paraphrase roughly. If price keeps testing a level, it wants to go through. This is what I am thinking looking at USDCAD. It wants to break above resistance at 100, and I think there is a good enough chance that it will. Again, I'm glad I'm still in the trade.



I'm a little confused by this. Saying that "if price keeps testing a level, it wants to go through" - is this not the same situation as where a price momentum is repeatedly rejected at resistance / support thus validating that S/R level and therefore making it less likely it will be broken? How do we know the difference? Would be great to better understand thinking on this.
Thanks,
NT

Again this is largely discretionary. I guess I have developed a feel over time whether price wants to go THROUGH a s/r rather than TURN at it.

 

[trader_dante]

Wheat *Trade update*

In the end it was a pin bar that got me in and a pin bar that got me out of this trade which has caught a market move of 20% in a little over a month. See chart 1

In total I had seven positions in Wheat from the beginning until the end of the move which ran from 9th November to 11th December.

The P&L looks like this:

1st position: 35 ticks (this position was in December Wheat and was rolled into March)
2nd position: 22 ticks
3rd position: 98 ticks
4th position: 47 ticks
5th position: 28 ticks
6th position: 27 ticks
7th position: 10 ticks

Total P&L: £1,335.

The initial risk off the pin bar was 23 ticks (£115) which gives me a reward of over 11 times the risk.

I've attached a screenshot of the individual trade breakdown in profit. See image 2

I'm still bullish in Wheat and will continue to watch this market carefully. The Supply/Demand Report that came out today showed the lowest US ending stocks figure since at least the post-WW II era, according to the CBOT. Traders are fearful of tight stocks being depleted by the continued fast pace of world demand and that there is still a huge amount of short interest in this market that may be forced to liquidate if it heads higher.

 

[fibonelli]

Price action that might keep my order in is a succession of inside bars, after the pin bar, which indicates an imminent break in one direction.

don't forget the Narrow Range bars too!

 

[1Pipped]

Nice dealing on the wheat TD, congratulations sir... congratulations on getting to 100 pages on your thread too !!

 

[tafita]

Thanks for the replies fib and TD. I think my entries are poor and not sure what is going on with them.

 

[trader_dante]

Thanks for the replies fib and TD. I think my entries are poor and not sure what is going on with them.

Post up a few charts of entries Tafita and I'll give you my opinion if you like

 

[shadowninja]

A heads up for you guys. Pin formed about 15 minutes ago on EUR/USD 4H chart.

 

[Reas]

Hi all,

Last couple off days i had one big profit trade and two smaller loss trades.
Luckely the profit was bigger than the two losses
Here is a new trade i took, short on the hourly GBPUSD.
I saw a pin rejected from a trendline, a pivotline and from a 61.8 fib line.
How much more confidence can you get right?
The first chart shows the whole fib. retracement, the second chart is more zoomed in.

I shorted it one pip below the pin, stop is still above the pin.

Reas

 

[Reas]

thousand posts allready!
Congrats TD with this excellent thread!

 

[bansir]

Two for the price of one?

Hi Reas and all,
These could be good too, maybe.
Though there may not be enough momentum in the second eye to send it up.
I think would like to see 0.7210 broken , then maybe look for a pull-back and sneak a stop in somewhere under the 23.6 fib perhaps?

Thoughts anyone?

Best Regards,
Neil