Making Money Trading

[lurkerlurker]

Stop moved to high of this closing hourly bar ar 1.0069. (which is +3 on my reentry).

TD - did you get the reentry later on, or are you flat on this market?

I'm covered at 46 on the last trade. The market isn't moving, the hourly range is contracting, and putting the stop above the high of this bar isn't meaningful. I've taken +201 pips on this cross today, so I'm happy enough with that. I think I've also managed the trades fairly well given the markets reaction to news, although I do need to be more disciplined by defining clearly in advance under what circumstances I will exit a trade and why.

 

[superspurs]

welll played

well done lurker,perhaps after today it shows you can play this game,after all it was an excellent set up,you just need to be a bit more selective with your trades.good hunting

 

[firewalker99]

...although I do need to be more disciplined by defining clearly in advance under what circumstances I will exit a trade and why.

No further comments, couldn't have said it better myself
I hope to see you update your journal anytime soon.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Nymex Crude Jan08 (CLF8)

Hourly pin here. Got my entry 10c worse off because of getting slipped twice on the way in. Long 87.88 with a stoploss at 87.38. 50c risk.

The bottom of this hourly pin has reversed off the S/R pivot which price respected on the 3/4th of this month, and stalled at on the 7th. We also see that price stalled here in October before breaking out. This price level is also pretty close to the 38.2% fib on the daily, drawn from the August low to the November double top.

Finally, on this hourly bar price declined to the low of the left eye, held, and reversed back up. I feel disadvantaged at paying 10c to get in plus a 6c spread, so I'll need to leave this trade for some time before looking at it I think. I will ignore the close of this bar and check back at 11AM instead.

I don't have a target in mind, but I'll let price action be my guide and trail a stop accordingly. If I manage this trade properly I'll either be out for -50 or out for >+100.

I'll cover this before the inventories in any case, unless I can get a stop in close enough that I have little risk even allowing for $1 slippage.

Edit - Trading Plan (note price still current at the time of edit)

Entry on an hourly timeframe - ignore the lesser timeframes. Long term S/R zone, and also fib bounce. Other price action in the candles showing a possible reversal. Order to add another on a better price with a contingent stop - don't really care if this isn't triggered. Paid too much to get into this position, but when a pin breaks you have very little time to get in.

Exit - risk of max 50c defined in advance. Will trail stop on hourly bars when price makes a new high, leave it alone where it does not. No screen checking until 11AM. Anticipating resistance off the 88.40 level. Price should go through - if it sharply reverses I will consider covering. If at any time it forms a valid bearish pin I will cover on a break of the low of that pin. If 88.40 and 88.60 are taken out, there is no serious resistance until 90, and I would hope to stay in the trade until then. No panic exits. Unless significantly in profit and the stop would be too wide, or there isn't a sensible place to put a stop, I will not cover at the market. As I will get a worse price when stopped than covering at the market, this should keep me in a trade. I will also consider where the stop should be placed sensibly, rather than using it as a way to get out quicker. again, the mechanical method of trailing the stop when a bar makes a new high may be my best bet here.

Some discretion will be used when price reacts to the S/R and congestion zones around the 88.XX, but otherwise should that break there should be a clear run to 90. Again, I will give price room at 90 to decide whether it wants to go through.

 

[trader_dante]

Trade update *March Wheat*

Well this has been a truly remarkable run in Wheat that has given me an open profit of over 14 times what I risked.

I've been accumulating March Wheat steadily throughout this move higher and as of Friday have bought almost all the Wheat that I can carry with the margin in my account and am holding well over 2/3 of the maximum speculative position that is permitted with my broker.

Friday went limit up and price has gapped up a further 17 full points over the weekend.

Price is now heading into the September all time highs with momentum and while I expect it to continue higher, the last area of consolidation is simply too far away to place my stop.

As a result I am looking to exit on what I consider to be a sign of weakness. I will consider the lower TFs to determine this.

 

[trader_dante]

Hi TD,

I was just looking at my charts tonight and saw a pin on cable, bouncing off the main trendline from June last year. It is interesting that it is the same as your USDCAD one in that they are both off long term trend lines and both hoping for weakness in the USD.

Tha cable one is also bouncing off a fib level too 76.4% of 2007-09-28 - 2007-11-09 move.

Have you any thoughts on the cable one ?

A few days ago I was thinking of getting long of cable if it came down to roughly where it is now, Ive not tried your entry method as of yet but might try it out ...

Spanking you kindly.

Hi 1Pipped,

Sorry for the delayed response.

I saw this too but opted to take Usd/Cad instead. I see it's around 100 pips up on the high of the pin bar. Did you take it?

 

[trader_dante]

TD - did you get the reentry later on, or are you flat on this market?.

Hi Lurker,

I got the re-entry off the 1hr pin bar and still holding...

Good call on Crude

Watch 88.60 very carefully and also the underside of that ascending TL. Price has rejected it several times already.

Good luck.

Tom

 

[black bear]

Great trade TD

Well this has been a truly remarkable run in Wheat that has given me an open profit of over 14 times what I risked.

I've been accumulating March Wheat steadily throughout this move higher and as of Friday have bought almost all the Wheat that I can carry with the margin in my account and am holding well over 2/3 of the maximum speculative position that is permitted with my broker.

Friday went limit up and price has gapped up a further 17 full points over the weekend.

Price is now heading into the September all time highs with momentum and while I expect it to continue higher, the last area of consolidation is simply too far away to place my stop.

As a result I am looking to exit on what I consider to be a sign of weakness. I will consider the lower TFs to determine this.

Hi TD

Great trade TD, not my cup of tea at entry, but any more of these and it might be with a few little modifications

Will you exit in bits or all in one go or do you trail stop in close and give it a chance.

Do you have % you will give back then all out :?:

Andy

 

[lurkerlurker]

Hi Lurker,

I got the re-entry off the 1hr pin bar and still holding...

Good call on Crude

Watch 88.60 very carefully and also the underside of that ascending TL. Price has rejected it several times already.

Good luck.

Tom

Thanks Tom. It looks like the price doesn't quite want to go through, but I'm pleased to come back to the screen and see 50c open profit after spread. Per my trading plan, I've moved my stop up to the low of the last bar, which would give me +10 before slippage if I get stopped out. If price rejects this level, fine. A proper rejection would stop me out. Anything less than that would just look like a small consolidation, and that would be premature to cover.

I'll check back at 12 to see if my stop needs to be moved. Glad you got the USDCAD reentry - I bailed on that for around +30 giving me +201 on that pair for the day. I'm happy with that. Perhaps a more disciplined version of lurker might be able to squeeze more profit out of a similar trade in the future.

I've not been stopped out with my CMC account in a market like crude yet, so it is impossible to estimate my slippage. However, unless the slippage is criminally more than the spread, it looks like I have a free trade on. I'll be back to look at it at 12, and if there is an inside bar I'll make a decision then.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Checking back in on my position, and it looks like the 88.60 level has been rejected on the basis of this hourly bar. I see no new high has been made, so I do not move my stop. Further, I've come within a few ticks of being stopped out. I'm still in, but I'm leaving the stop where it is. If the low of this hourly bar is breached, I'm wrong and will be pleased to be out.

 

[Nordtrader]

Hi Lurker,

I got the re-entry off the 1hr pin bar and still holding...

Good call on Crude

Watch 88.60 very carefully and also the underside of that ascending TL. Price has rejected it several times already.

Good luck.

Tom

Hi guys,

Nice work on your recent trends! Regarding the crude, is there a 2hr bearish pin just forming - off the 50MA? Might be a concern....

Thanks for the continued great posts on this thread.

NT

 

[lurkerlurker]

Hi guys,

Nice work on your recent trends! Regarding the crude, is there a 2hr bearish pin just forming - off the 50MA? Might be a concern....

Thanks for the continued great posts on this thread.

NT

I don't use MAs, but the bearish inside bar is certainly concerning. My stop which was moved an hour ago is still in a useful place. If we see a break of the low of the last 2 H1 bars I am wrong. However given the apparent volatility and the very closely matched buying and selling pressure here I'd feel more comfortable if the stop was a little lower for "wiggle room" on this S/R point. However, I don't move stops away from the market, so it says put.


And I'm stopped out for +10. I appreciate what TD said about watching the resistance area, and indeed I did mention factoring in a reaction to that on my initial trading plan, however I am trying to improve my discipline and at the moment I am doing that by not getting out of trades for subjective reasons and snatching at profits. While it was valid to point out the possible rejection of the spot sixty, I did not feel that any rejection would be valid until it took out the low of the previous bar. Given the small distance there I felt it would just be noise if price retraced from the R zone by 20 or 30c.

I'd appreciate some comments from T2W members on my management of this trade. I felt I did well and followed my rules, but some suggestions and feedback would be appreciated.

Oh, and CMC took just over a minute to fill my stop, but there was no slippage. +10 for the day.

Review

This trade didn't retest my entry. The low of the two eyes were equal, and there was also the fib confluence. However, as TD points out, the stalling did come on a daily S/R pivot. However, if I had left the stop BE rather than +10 I'd still be in the trade, which has now run to +100. Notwithstanding this, I believe my stop placement (and by extension exit) was correct. I'll be requesting that the mods move some of these posts over to my journal some time next weekend. I intend to update my journal substantially next weekend, and think that some of my posts here (and the before and after charts) would be useful over there.

 

[Nordtrader]

Hi guys,

Nice work on your recent trends! Regarding the crude, is there a 2hr bearish pin just forming - off the 50MA? Might be a concern....

Thanks for the continued great posts on this thread.

NT

Sorry, meant 'nice work on your recent trades'.

Got the trend on the brain....!

 

[trader_dante]

Nice work on your recent trends! Regarding the crude, is there a 2hr bearish pin just forming - off the 50MA? Might be a concern....

There certainly is but more importantly its right off that daily s/r pivot.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Usdcad H1

There is a bullish pin forming on this cross. I understand that the daily long term trend is down, and I'm going against a longer timeframe, however there has been another rejection of parity. I have a buy order in for 2 at 42 and a stop of 04. Risk 2*38 pips. This entry is confirmed on the 4H chart at a slightly higher price. I'm always wary about buying dollars. If triggered, I will plan to trail the stop as before, however will keep an eye on the 80 levels for a potential rejection, and look to cover if it won't go through.

Also, did I mention there is a similar setup on EURCAD, suggesting overall CAD weakness rather than USD strength. This "validates" the trade in my mind as I do not generally like betting on USD strength per se.

edit - I've just been filled long. I'm liking the price action setup, and will check back at 1. Good to see TD is less bearish today, and has moved stops to lock in profits.

 

[trader_dante]

Usd/Cad *update*

Fridays mark to market gave me a net profit of £33.45 on my short line.

I've moved my stop to breakeven on the new entry (1.0051) after the second failed retest of parity today.

I'll edit THIS post when the trade is exited to prevent huge numbers of posts

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
EDIT: Stop on rolled entry has been hit giving me a profit of 16 pips across the whole position (£39.30)
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

[lurkerlurker]

Huge numbers of posts tend to happen. This thread is about pin bar trades, so it seems legitimate to post them. Looks like you have been stopped out TD. It also looks like price could be rejecting the 70. I'm going to move my stop in to breakeven due to the wide range of this bar - it should not be coming back to that level any time soon if it is to go further.

Tempted to take half off as well...but I'll resist. Moving the stop up so quickly was enough. I'll be back at 2 to review this trade, and move the stops if necessary if I am still in. Thanks for showing us all the way TD!

trade update

Hitting triple top resistance on the hourly. Moving the stop mechanically in 4 minutes would dictate that I put it at 48, or +6 on my entry. However, I may exercise discretion if we do not go through this level, taking half off initially and moving the remaining stop to +6.

Half off at 80 for +38, remainder set to +6 stop. Checking in again in an hour.

edit 2 - we went straight through that resistance, but price could still stall. The benefit of having multiple lots is that I've taken my profit on half at a very sensible target / resistance level, and have the opportunity to make more profit should the move go further than expected.

Anyway, I'm up +10 on CLF8, +38 on USDCAD, and have a stop on the remainder which should give me +6 unless there is slippage. I can therefore pencil in a 54 pip gain over 2 trades.

3PM update
Closed bar made a higher high by 1 tick, therefore stop moved to close of bar at 66 which is +24 on the entry. I can now pencil in a 72 pip gain overall. Reading the chart, the S/R pivot which price is stalling against seems fairly robust, and was a key reversal around 26/9/7. Price has more recently been supported well by this level. In my view the next target is a "gap fill" from Fridays NFP move, but otherwise if price pulls back and breaks the low of the previous bar, I am right to be stopped out.

4PM update

Price hasn't made a new high this bar, and it looks as if I will be stopped out. I'm not covering at the market for the sake of a few pips, but the potential of this trade is greatly diminished. I'm holding until my stop is hit - we could well have another inside bar, or indeed another break north, so I'm glad to still have a position on. There are no other signals at the turn of the hour.

Something TD said once - and I'll paraphrase roughly. If price keeps testing a level, it wants to go through. This is what I am thinking looking at USDCAD. It wants to break above resistance at 100, and I think there is a good enough chance that it will. Again, I'm glad I'm still in the trade.


Crude Oil Review

This looks like it could have been the trade of the day (+200 at one point), which is partially what I was expecting when I put the position on. If things go to plan, I will soon be able to trade multiple units of crude oil as my account balance grows, so it will be easier to avoid shakeouts like this in the future.

 

[1Pipped]

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Pipped View Post
Hi TD,

I was just looking at my charts tonight and saw a pin on cable, bouncing off the main trendline from June last year. It is interesting that it is the same as your USDCAD one in that they are both off long term trend lines and both hoping for weakness in the USD.

Tha cable one is also bouncing off a fib level too 76.4% of 2007-09-28 - 2007-11-09 move.

Have you any thoughts on the cable one ?

A few days ago I was thinking of getting long of cable if it came down to roughly where it is now, Ive not tried your entry method as of yet but might try it out ...

Spanking you kindly.

Hi 1Pipped,

Sorry for the delayed response.

I saw this too but opted to take Usd/Cad instead. I see it's around 100 pips up on the high of the pin bar. Did you take it?

Hi TD,

No I didn't take it in the end. I didn't like how it just appeared at the trend line so suddenly... I'm also currently between brokers, although I was tempted to put some money in my old account to cover the trade, I didn't bother !

 

[trader_dante]

Wheat *Trade update*

Price is getting very volatile.

Interestingly enough, I just read this over at the CBOT:

The Commitments of Traders Report with options continues to show that small traders and trend following funds are holding onto their big net short positions in the face of the recent sharp runup in prices.

Trend-following funds are still net short in Chicago by 12,941 having actually raised their net short position last week

Obviously the professional definition of TREND varies from mine.

How long are funds going to hold before higher prices force liquidation sending the price still higher? Or do they know something I don't?

At any rate, I've bought March Wheat in five increments. This is how I am managing my exit.

This is subject to change.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Price has more recently been supported well by this level. In my view the next target is a "gap fill" from Fridays NFP move, but otherwise if price pulls back and breaks the low of the previous bar, I am right to be stopped out.

Exit second half at 110 for +68. That makes +106 between the two lots. Add my +10 from crude (even though price went 20x further) and I think I've had a pretty good day!