Making Money Trading

[trader_dante]

Hi Tom --- Just dropping in to say hello.Great to see you are doing so well here. You seem to have mastered those last couple of missing pieces in your trading,making money was never a problem to you. I am just emerging from a period of major personal problems but should be able to concentrate on trading 100 % again soon.

As I have said before on here I admire anybody that is prepared to stick thier head above the parapet wall and run a thread like this, so well done and maybe see you on Messenger soon.

Kelvin ..........

Hello Kelvin,

Sorry to hear you've been having a difficult period.

I'm always on Messenger so look me up when you have time

All the best,

Tom

 

[trader_dante]

Hi Skynet

I bought GBPJPY long at 22453. Stop at 22400 - bottom of nose.

1) I wrote down a trigger to buy of 22460. But as I was working it out etc.. it had gone through the trigger & then dropped back to 22453. I figured that since I would have ordered at 22460 I was only reducing risk by contining to place my order now, even though it had dropped back to 22453. Is that thinking valid?

Yes that is perfectly valid as long as it hasn't advanced very far. In your case it had only moved 7 pips. If it had moved up considerably more and then retraced I would be tempted to pass on it.

2) I would appreciate it if you would be able to comment on the pin I acted from & if I got the S/R points in the right place - did I miss any, etc...

I have attached a chart with my s/r pivots and TL.

3) The pin after the one I traded is also like a pin bar, but the nose doesnt stick out clear of the previous one. Once that pin had formed would you consider moving your stop to just below that second pin to reduce risk?

Yes, definetly.

 

[superspurs]

if im getting the hang of this,there was a nice 2 bar pin on the dow earlier,didn,t trade it only just seen it 1 hr TF

 

[lurkerlurker]

Either way, I've no idea what they are up to on Threadneedle St, and even less idea how the market will react, so I've covered this position now.

For what it is worth, GBPJPY has proceeded rather well today. The initial stop left where it was would have been fine and +150, but there were valid reasons to cover given the pending news. However, again, these pins do work very well.

 

[superspurs]

hi lurker gb/yen looks good for a short,its a bit to wild for me tho.ill demo this (paper trade).mission failed

 

[trader_dante]

Live trade *Usd/Cad*

I am going short on USD/CAD.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
This is not a recommendation to trade.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

How I will enter this trade

I have entered on a break of the pin bar low at 1.0885

Stop would be one tick be above the pin.

Why I took this trade

Chart 1: Price has tested and rejected a descending TL TWICE creating pin bars on both days.

Chart 2: Price has stalled at the 61.8 retracement of the last swing down.

 

[ivot]

Those are just the ones I remember. As I have said before, it took me seven years to get where I am with a method that I am comfortable with.

I've been reading this thread with interest for awhile and this comment has caused me to jump in. I say that because it's taken me almost 8+ years to get to a point where I have a specific plan in place that's starting to bring in consistent profits. Your path seems very similar to mine based on what I've seen you write on this thread.

What I've most amazed about in this thread is the fact that my method is EXTREMELY similar to your's in it's basic concept. Your basic idea of finding 'pin bar's and then trading them once they 'confirm' forms the very,very basic concept of what I do. What you are doing is finding is finding POTENTIAL swing bars and entering the trade once the swing has CONFIRMED by breaking above the high or low of the your pinbar (depending on which way the pin formed)

If you get filled short thats pin bar was a swing top, if you get filled long that pin bar was a swing bottom. Trending markets are made up of these swings. In an up trending market for example the market rallies, pulls bulls back (but doesn't make new lows), rallies, pulls back (but doesn't go below the previous pull back) and then rallies again.

What I do is look to get in on that second rally, (so I KNOW I'm going in the direction of the trend if the swing "confirms"). This is of course a VERY simplified explanation

My winning % is only like 50% but my winning trades are usually large and my losing trades are small because I place my inital stop loss the exact same way you do. Below the low of what you call the "pin bar" if going long and of course the reverse if going short.

If anyone cares to see an example, one of my recent trades was in the USD/CAD where I went long on 11/20/2007 and got stopped out today when prices broke below yesterday's daily low.

For those of you who are struggling with how to trail your stop, try experiment with trailing it one pip below the low of most recently finished price bar if going long and the reverse if going short. If an inside bar forms (bar that has a lower high and higher low then the bar preceeding it) wait until the bar AFTER that inside bar forms and then move your stop to below that bar (if you are long).

 

[1Pipped]

Hi TD,

I was just looking at my charts tonight and saw a pin on cable, bouncing off the main trendline from June last year. It is interesting that it is the same as your USDCAD one in that they are both off long term trend lines and both hoping for weakness in the USD.

Tha cable one is also bouncing off a fib level too 76.4% of 2007-09-28 - 2007-11-09 move.

Have you any thoughts on the cable one ?

A few days ago I was thinking of getting long of cable if it came down to roughly where it is now, Ive not tried your entry method as of yet but might try it out ...

Spanking you kindly.

 

[lurkerlurker]

I am going short on USD/CAD.

I have entered on a break of the pin bar low at 1.0885 [sic]

I like that setup. Since the entry has already been triggered, I was pleased to get a nicer price at 1.0116. I also have a stop above the PDH, and will hold this position into the employment number.

Will check in on the close of the 4H bars and after NFP. Looking to hold this for quite some time. Reasonably low risk trade, although I could have got an entry at .012 if I had been more patient.

More rate cuts are ahead in the US, and they seem content to let the dollar index slide. 4 point spread is pretty cheeky in the bucket shops, but since this will be a long term trade I'm not too bothered.

Thanks for the live signal. My first target is a break of parity, and if this fails I'll trail the stop in and look to cover. Otherwise I'm looking for the 0.98, and if that breaks the 0.96. I'd like to be able to put multiple lots on, but with an 83 pip stop I cannot afford to.

 

[trader_dante]

I like that setup. Since the entry has already been triggered, I was pleased to get a nicer price at 1.0116. I also have a stop above the PDH, and will hold this position into the employment number.

Hi Lurker,

I was telling skynet a few posts above that if find a pin that has triggered and followed through in the anticipated direction but has then turned and retraced heavily, I would pass on an entry at a "better" price.

This position was +25 overnight and now it has given that back and moved 16 (at the time of your short) into the red. That tells me that there is still strong buying.

Don't let your desire for a better price cause you to take undue risk.

I know you can argue that theorecticaly you WOULD have taken the position IF you had seen it before it originally triggered but the fact is you DIDN'T and that means you can now objectively take a fresh look at the risk involved.

If I was out of this, I wouldn't be getting in on the short side right now.

Since I am in though, I will conform to my rules.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Hi Lurker,

I was telling skynet a few posts above that if find a pin that has triggered and followed through in the anticipated direction but has then turned and retraced heavily, I would pass on an entry at a "better" price.

This position was +25 overnight and now it has given that back and moved 16 (at the time of your short) into the red. That tells me that there is still strong buying.

Don't let your desire for a better price cause you to take undue risk.

I know you can argue that theorecticaly you WOULD have taken the position IF you had seen it before it originally triggered but the fact is you DIDN'T and that means you can now objectively take a fresh look at the risk involved.

If I was out of this, I wouldn't be getting in on the short side right now.

Since I am in though, I will conform to my rules.

The resistance at .015 seems to be holding, and in hindsight that is a better entry point. We have two payrolls figures today, but I'm fairly confident that the USD will weaken further - the BoC rate cut didn't really do much to affect the cross, and the weak CAD payrolls are already pretty much priced in as far as I can tell. Stops are in, and we'll see how this trade turns out. I'm happy enough with the risk involved, and if I don't get stopped today I'm happy to trail the stop on the higher timeframes and turn this into a position trade.

 

[trader_dante]

Trade update *Usd/Cad*

Stop moved to breakeven.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Stop moved to breakeven.

I've exited both halves now. I don't want to hold into the US NFP, and I've taken some good profits on that move. I covered half near the lows and put a stop on the remainder to 1.0065, but now I consider that if it reaches or breaks that there will be a better re-entry to be had later.

+175 between the two lots.

 

[smbtnt]

I am going short on USD/CAD.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
This is not a recommendation to trade.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

How I will enter this trade

I have entered on a break of the pin bar low at 1.0885

Stop would be one tick be above the pin.

Why I took this trade

Chart 1: Price has tested and rejected a descending TL TWICE creating pin bars on both days.

Chart 2: Price has stalled at the 61.8 retracement of the last swing down.

Good spot TD,

All Cad crosses showing similar price action structure - especially on the weekly time frame. Worth persisting with this one i feel but would feel more comfortable if the entry came off the weekly.

 

[trader_dante]

I've exited both halves now. I don't want to hold into the US NFP, and I've taken some good profits on that move. I covered half near the lows and put a stop on the remainder to 1.0065, but now I consider that if it reaches or breaks that there will be a better re-entry to be had later.

+175 between the two lots.

Lurker,

It seems to me that your carefully constructed plans go out the window the minute you see a good profit.

It is obvious that you are still reacting to emotionally to the market.

You make a decision based on your P&L and then try and justify it to yourself.

You entered this trade writing "I will hold this position into the employment number."

"Will check in on the close of the 4H bars and after NFP. Looking to hold this for quite some time."

"We have two payrolls figures today, but I'm fairly confident that the USD will weaken further"

Then the move goes over 100 pips in your favour and suddenly you exit one half at the market, decide to put a stop on the second half and then second guess yourself once again and exit.

Then you justify your actions by a contradicting statement thats tells both you and the people you have to prove yourself too that you no longer want to hold into NFP.

The only reason it seems you have changed your mind is that you want to book your profits on the move because you are SCARED that NFP will take them away from you.

I'm not trying to have a go at you Lurker. I'm honestly trying to help.

On this particular trade you may well have the laugh on me. You've taken 175 over two positions and I may take next to nothing but the way I see it, I am holding to my plan.

I know that plan has a positive expectancy over the long run.

I have seen the daily pin bar as a pivotal entry into the longer term downtrend and I am willing to see if that assessment plays out.

As a precautionary measure I have moved my stop to breakeven in case the strong psychological support offered by parity holds.

 

[lurkerlurker]

TD - thanks for your post - I'll reply in more detail later today when I have the time.

Just to let you know that I've not given up on this trade, but owing to the nature of reactions to news I felt it best to cover where I did and seek a reentry later. I said I was looking for a better reentry in my above post.

I've now gone short at 1.0072 with a stop above 1.0100 which is above an hourly S/R level which I consider to be significant. My new short price is significantly higher than where I covered, and in view of this I think it mitigates my decision somewhat.

However, I do take on board what you say and will respond in more detail later. Thanks.

 

[trader_dante]

I'm out at breakeven which actually gives me a minor profit (£4.65) on that trade.

This is the result of the mark to market at rollover last night.

 

[lurkerlurker]

I'm out at breakeven which actually gives me a minor profit (£4.65) on that trade.

This is the result of the mark to market at rollover last night.

Fair enough, but I regard the reasons for the trade as sound, and I've taken an entry only slightly below the break of the daily pin. I do have a tight stop however, because a break above support would seem to indicate a rejection of parity.

Thankfully I did cover without awaiting a full retracement back to my entry, however you are correct that perhaps I need to be more detailed in my pre trade plans and deviate less from them.

I still see that this trade has potential longer term, but I am only prepared to risk 30 pips to find this out - anything more and the trade becomes invalid. Lets see how this turns out....

 

[lurkerlurker]

TD - if you want back in it has just formed a bearish pin bar off the S/R zone I was previously discussing. If this bar is triggered, my short entry will be validated, but more importantly it would allow you a reentry of only 15 points worse than your original trade should you wish to take it.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Stop moved to high of this closing hourly bar ar 1.0069. (which is +3 on my reentry).