Intraday Live short term trading calls from an Expert Retail Forex Trader

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Back again - and missed the nice action - dollar weakness and GU / AU / EU up and UChf down

new high on EU of 3506 ish - so we have been keeping to the HH's and HL's since 6th or 7th of November.

It shows most of retail and also smaller funds must be selling - that's why the bigger player's have bought - to take their stops etc and then set themselves up for sells higher up .

i would have thought there would be loads of stops over 3600 worth having - but first they might have to dump some of these bulls from the 3350 area - you cannot let them make too much money ;-))

Looking for a scalp over 3.00pm UK time window now
 
Swissy - i would have thought it would try and stay above supports at 9120 -30 area - with current price at 38.
EU is bullish above 3480 and 87 - with price now at 3493.

Need to see what might now happen coming up to hr change and also will check AU / GU and EJ
 
AU - we did not quite make 75 and then started to fall with scalp sells under 71 - now at 64 area and just seeing whether we get a bounce here - or whether to hold teh scalp sell on under 71
 
Hi F,

I appreciate you don't like to post your statements, and rightfully so, as it is your decision to post what you want, and what you don't want to, but may I make a suggestion please.

Would it be possible for you to post up at the end of the day, or week, what your totals were for pips attained, ratio of winners to losers, and how much profit you made for the week. Yes I appreciate asking for you to post what profit you have made over the week may seem a bit vulgar to ask, but as you can appreciate, this is something that you have mentioned before, as to what kind of money you have made.

I ask this, not so it sends some of your doubters on this forum in a fit of jealousy at seeing you do well, but more so members don't have to trawl through loads of posts to see how you've done, but can have a short synopsis of how well you do, and how with hard work, savvy market analysis, and due-diligence the markets can be conquered.

Well done, and good luck for the future.

Best
John.
 
EU down to supports at 3480 - with under there 3472, Hoping I can get some scalp buys in - and have tried on now on AU at 62 - but need over 66 to hold it on . On AU under 58 scalp sells again
 
Hi F,

I appreciate you don't like to post your statements, and rightfully so, as it is your decision to post what you want, and what you don't want to, but may I make a suggestion please.

Would it be possible for you to post up at the end of the day, or week, what your totals were for pips attained, ratio of winners to losers, and how much profit you made for the week. Yes I appreciate asking for you to post what profit you have made over the week may seem a bit vulgar to ask, but as you can appreciate, this is something that you have mentioned before, as to what kind of money you have made.

I ask this, not so it sends some of your doubters on this forum in a fit of jealousy at seeing you do well, but more so members don't have to trawl through loads of posts to see how you've done, but can have a short synopsis of how well you do, and how with hard work, savvy market analysis, and due-diligence the markets can be conquered.

Well done, and good luck for the future.

Best
John.

Hi Mr Fox

Thank you for your comments etc

i was planning to do a end of month update with normal stuff

ie - number of trades - wins - losses - Total net pips - % gain of account - best day - worst day - best RR etc etc but then not bother with the details of breakdown of pairs etc etc

Instead next week - I will change my format slightly then look at doing a daily update after London Close with key points etc

I will not mention the money part - as it is very emotive and as you say will only wind up loads again

Whether you trade live with $1 per pip or $1000 per pip - its the number of positive pips and the RR's which are important - but i have commented I have seen real live accounts with 150+ pips in a week - but still a money loss due to the losing pips having large stakes on them and the winning pips which added up to more pips than losing - all having small stakes and being less in total then losing trade monies

Also - I am safety first - I just don't like running with any negative trades and so dump them quickly - which can work against me on the free trade side - as an extra 5 -10 pip stop might have made me 50+ pips more

With regards to money - another point I can actually make more money on say 10 straight trades with 3 losses and all scalps with full stakes on targets from 7 -25 pips than say 20 trades with only say 4 losses - but with over double the pips - but the majority on the free trades will only have 30% of normal stakes on

After a few more weeks a pattern will emerge etc with regards to my average days - but meanwhile - yes I will supply summaries of what i am achieving in total but without mentioning the actual cash - which after all is the reason I am a full time retail trader ;-)

Regards

F
 
AU - have an issue with my broker on a 40 pip spike down at 3.21 pm from 9365 down to 9335ish - nex candles fine and not the same on another platform - so in with both barrels ;-))
 
EU - low was at 3.21 pm - so now over 30 mins with no breach - thats favours scalp buys again - but will want scalp sells under 3487-90 - if we did get that far again
 
EU so far made a 34835 high - taken off 70% scalp buy from 73 now at 82 and will leave rest on with stop in profit at 78. Was hoping to scalp sell under 87 or top 90.

Over 3490 then EU is trying up again
 
GU was also a nice scalp buy from 6091 on the hr change - but at this time of the day - just went with the EU and ignored others for now
 
EU - 84 top for now - not scalp selling as have free buy trade on with stop at 78 - so will see if that si tested
 
Yes just taken free trade out. EU at 77 now and still think this is not a clean drop down below current low.

We know we need now over 87 and 90 to hold or get back in to scalp buying - but I did not jump into a scalp sell - as we did not really test R's at 85-90 area - and therefore the set up is suspect and could be false

Coming to half hr change and await more clues ;-))
 
My motto's include this one -

"Every move is a stop hunt"

and real technical traders will know what i mean as price is like water - will hunt out all the cracks and openings and leave them wet ;-))
 
EU now at 3485 again - didn't we just know it really ;-))- still would like to scalp sell but it may be up at 90 or 92 - a real critical price area - as above more scalp buys and 3500 again - whereas if not breached - then a LH again under 3506 and 3497 ish
 
Finishing now - I know i have had enough when I miss sitters and the GU was a perfect example - scalp buy from 6091+ area and then topped at 6111 at end of my time window - and I did not scalp sell it !!!

Missed out on another 10 easy pips there - but that's trading - you will never catch them all - but easy over my 50 pip main daily target today - mainly due to AU / GU and EJ's in the early London part.

Will check out some stats and check probably next hr change again as some Fridays after London close - the US have fun and do some of their own stuff ;-))

Have a great weekend and will be posting some more stuff later on and over the weekend

Cheers

F
 
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Forexmospherian , I noticed that you use phrases like" hour change , "half hr change" , "at the end of my time window " , " highs or lows stopping 9 minutes to hr " , "next time window in 6 mins" etc. Sounds interesting , new to me. Would you expand on this , how this effects your decisions?
Regards,
Dezo
 
Hi Tdezo - yes will do - will explain a bit more about how important time is for intraday trading sometime over the weekend.

I am sure you might have heard how the session openings play a part in many changes of wave patterns - and also key times of the day like for example 11.00 am UK and 3.00 pm UK - when there can be peak traffic looking at taking new trades - but I have not heard or read about how I incorporate it - as it is unusual but comes from the hours and days I have spent in front of watching live small time frames - and i try to use it as another "clue" for entering or exiting forex trades

I am sure you will find it interesting and then next week it will make more sense when I make many of my trade decisions.

More to follow

Regards

F
 
Also, what happens if you apply the same techniques to M15 or hourly charts?

Do you still see a positive outcome?

Thanks,
c6
 
Last edited:
Forexmospherian , I noticed that you use phrases like" hour change , "half hr change" , "at the end of my time window " , " highs or lows stopping 9 minutes to hr " , "next time window in 6 mins" etc. Sounds interesting , new to me. Would you expand on this , how this effects your decisions?
Regards,
Dezo


Re 30/60 min frame changes and Time windows. I work on the basis that I am ideally after trades that last around 15 mins to 30 mins. I therefore use time and time windows to give me additional clues on whether to enter or exit trades.

My main tine window is 9 mins either side an hour change and then my secondary one is 9 mins either side a 30 min change.

If you look on any charts - normally interim highs and lows - and even major highs and lows will normally end in those time windows - so in effect narrowing the 60 mins down to 36 mins and then it can be narrowed further down into the 9 mins either side the actual change of time

The reason for this is purely down to the logistics of money entering and exiting the market. All the small stakes go any every minute of the hour -- but normally the larger money is held for time window entries

We all know a 4 hr chartist will comment on his close of his brokers candle - whether price will carry on etc - but really the only time frames common to all around the world is the one hour frame and under.

That's why the hour frame is key - even daily frames change at different times according to were you are in the world.

We must also remember that the past is the past and although it can have a bearing on the future - why should it ??

So therefore price might drop for several days on a currency pair and then just one minute into a new hour frame - some large player dumps a "yard" or two and then the whole PA changes and price might then go up for even a month or quarter - until the rest of the market change it and the player takes his profit ;-)

Because I concentrate on trades under 15 -30 mins - ideally going over 7 -25+ pips - I can get tight stops and great RR's ie 2 to even 6+ all in just a small period - allowing me to take multi trades on multi pairs throughout the key trading times of the day - ie European Open to just after London Close.

With correct advanced MM - "multi" short time day trades with very tight stops will give you the best financial results - and make swing and longer term trading look so inefficient.

The main trouble though - is that you have got to be able to scalp and understand the market structure and PA in "minute" detail and that will take years to get to a good level - and then you have keep monitoring to notice changes - due to new robot timings and new tricks used by the liquidity providers.

I do get the big picture off all the larger frames - but when you are chasing just 7 -25+ pips in under 30 mins the best frames to assist are the tick charts and all frames up to 10 minutes. Yes the 30 min and 60 min are used - but for the accuracy I require - ie I don't want to be in profit by say 18 pips and then see it go back 12 pips all within 15 mins - I am at least 70% of the time on the 1 -3 min frames for my trades.

Hope that helps

Regards

F
 
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