Intraday Live short term trading calls from an Expert Retail Forex Trader

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c6ackp said:
Also, what happens if you apply the same techniques to M15 or hourly charts?

Do you still see a positive outcome?

Thanks,
c6
Click to expand...

Hi C6

Yes the time windows can be used with 15 min and 60 min charts - but really - the "devil is in the detail" and if you want super tight manual stops that can be adjusted yourself - ie say 3-7 pips as the guide - you will need to use the tick / 1 min or 3min to get that entry accuracy as well and screwing as many pips out on an exit and seeing an opposite trade start.

I know many traders say - I am not using under 15 min charts - as you are then down to trading in noise and you will get burned.

I agree - unless you can scalp and have over a few 1000's hrs of watching live 1-5 min time frames then you should not try live with these extra small stops - and instead stay with the 10 -15 pips stops - but you do then need the 25 - 40 pip moves and nowadays I find the market makers are trying to throw traders out of these targets all the while.

For me - i don't mind - as long as a move will last 10 -15 pips - that's fine for me - ie a RR of 2 or even 3 is still a large money earner and if you can catch 5 or more of those a day - you are made ;-))

I have noticed this month I am having more trades under 10 pips and having to accept more with just 4 to 7 pips - still RR of 1+ but really not large enough.

OK - you can still make 50 pips a day with say 10 -12 trades - even with 2 or 3 losses - because you will catch a 15 or 25 pip moves on one or more with those numbers

It is far better and more rewarding to only have to take say 5 trades with 1 loss of 5 pips and out the 4 winners - 1 over 25 pips 2 over 15 pips and another 1 with 10 pips - ie approx 65 -5 = 60 pips net and probably within a 3 -4 hour time window.

Also convert a few of those wins to "free trades" - and the you can have the cream on your cake as well ;-)

Regards

F
 
Thanks Forexmospherian ,
I will keep an eye on these time windows , periods. Interesting new information , probably very few watching these and very few trading like you do successfully. I try to use tick charts too , 30 , 70 and up to 500. I like how they show price movements in a somewhat compressed form , no action , no new bars regardless of time passed. I 'm also testing some different kind of MA s on tick charts , how they might work as dynamic S/Rs.
Regards , Dezo
 
Hi Dezo

Can I recommend you try out linear regression averages or indicators rather than MA's

I prefer them as they are less lagging and also have a few other qualities that result in you being able to understand price movements better.

I appreciate the commercial industry use the 20 /50 /100 and the ubiquitous 200 for their crosses and direction aids - but for me and for retail - i don't think they are good enough and I have tried them on small frame charts - but LR's for me are so much more accurate etc.

Yes they can also work as dynamic S & R'S along with trendlines and of course - time changes.

I find also that if you do have a dynamic S & R breached or broken - you also need the closest horizontal S & R as well to go as well for a larger price move.

One in isolation is not always enough and yet again can be used to trick traders into entering trades - that within a few pips stop and reverse again.

If you do try MA's or LR's on your time frames - yet again I recommend more on the 1 min to 10 min charts to catch the intraday moves.

On the 30 and 60 min frames they are too lagging and not accurate enough and on 4 hr or daily charts - they can be so misleading and turned into fakes most days of the week.

Hope that helps

Have a good week ;-)

Regards

F
 
HI MM

I have not gone back to the post to check it out - but cannot imagine we would see a 6 or 7 pip difference on charts even comparing say demo one with 3 pip spreads and ECN with a 0.5 pip spread.

To be different by 1-3 pips is very common and I think you have already commented our two chart platforms differ by 1.8-2 pips in price.

Sometimes when I quote I do allow and extra pip or so for a breach but looking from my Friday charts on the EU the key interim supports I have from the turn are - 3432 ( bottom of the day) 3444 - 3452 - 3462/3 - 3469/72 - 3488/90

Under 3469 would signal a turn again for trying lower on the intraday basis - but i would not trade that unless I can work on 5 pip stops.

Similar on the second question - I don't mind taking two or three buys to catch a full up retrace as I keep to my 5 pip rule but on those on Friday at the turn were scalpable and all lined up with supports and time windows etc ;-)

If I just worked on one scalp buy and waited to see it would last over 30 mins without breaching the low - I might miss out out several both way scalps - that can easily make another 10 -20 pips on my daily totals

Had no school runs on last Thursday and Friday - but back to one in the morning ;-)

Have a good week MM - and keep that focus going ;-)

Regards

F
 
Sunday Evening 10.06 pm - I don't normally trade until after at least 6.00am Monday morning - but keen to see if EU still teases up to 3500 again ;-)

We need under 3489 and 87 to be holding any scalp sells you take and really over 90 - still in scalp up bias

See you tomorrow Am and plan to have a look at the Beast tomorrow ( Gbp / Jpy) as it been very bullish last week and still might try another 50 -150 pips higher - thats if the players allow it ;-)

Regards

F
 
Forexmospherian ,

thanks for your recommendations and advice , I appreciate it. Really helps me to put something together so I'll be able to beat the odds and be a consistently profitable Fx trader
Regards ,
Dezo
 
Morning Traders

Post 1164 and page 146 - and the start of my trading on Monday 18th of November at the European Open - ie 7.00 am UK time.

EU and GU - both still in a bullish mode over the Asian Sessions with EU high so far going to 3508 and the GU 6142/3

i mentioned briefly last night - over 3489/90 - the EU is still in scalp buy bias with 87 needing to let go for scalp sells being held on and last night that fall only made 3473 area - so not much of a pullback.

6122-25 is a key interim support area on the GU with prices above still is scalp buy bias and needing under 6120 to be looking at holding scalp sells.

Not in either of these pairs atm and still reviewing all the key pairs.

Will comment on the Gbp / Jpy today along with the EJ - as it had been very bullish last week and made another new high over the Asian session.

Unfortunately out over the London Open - but only for about 30 -40 mins and then around most of the day.

Being a Monday not expecting massive moves - but will check my calender etc - as not done so far,

Have a good trading day and week - I will ;-)

Regards

F
 
EJ - in a tight range atm - under 135.18/20 in a scalp sell mode with 134.82/5 as interim supports. If that is breached hold scalp sells - and only really look at scalp buys back over 135 .15 and 20.

GJ - similar set up - under 161.55 - scalp sells but need the interim supports at 161.22/25 area to be breached to hold on to scalp sells.

Above 161,56 and 60 - back to scalp buys with present high and R at 161.77
 
Back at desk with approx 10 mins to hour change and the pair that I am scalp buying atm is the GU

In post 1164 - nearly 2 hrs ago - I mentioned GU in scalp buy mode with interim supports at 6122-25 well late getting into this scalp as out over the London Open on a school run - but bought at 33 and now it just reached 44 - so taken 70% off at 41 and holding the 30% above 35.
 
EU just shot up 14 pips at hr change to 3514. GU only up a few more pips to 46 - but in a free trade on GU with profit locked in stop,

GJ and EJ falling as envisaged atm - but not got scalp entries on either atm

With it being the hr change - time to review and reassess again
 
Forexmospherian said:
EJ - in a tight range atm - under 135.18/20 in a scalp sell mode with 134.82/5 as interim supports. If that is breached hold scalp sells - and only really look at scalp buys back over 135 .15 and 20.

GJ - similar set up - under 161.55 - scalp sells but need the interim supports at 161.22/25 area to be breached to hold on to scalp sells.

Above 161,56 and 60 - back to scalp buys with present high and R at 161.77
Click to expand...

Well got forecast on directions correct on EJ and GJ nearly 2 hrs ago - but failed to get good scalp sell entries before school run - so cannot count any of these pips to my tally - but I hope some other traders have been able to.

I don't want to just be a alert of forecast thread for all other traders - but my comments help to dispel any myths about retail traders should not try and trade in the "noise" etc etc - When you are experienced you should be able to read price nearly every pip - but I am not into fortune telling 4 - 8 hrs in advance - as you just cannot get the same probabilities factors as under 15 and 30 mins ;-))
 
GU top for now 49 and 47 scalp sell - but instead take all of free trade off at 45 now and then will review again after half hr change
 
EU - top for now -3518 - above 10 still bullish - under 09 and 07 can scalp sell down to 3502 ish and interim supports.

Over 3520+ look at more scalp buys
 
GU - well came out right on free trade scalp buy - but failed to jump in scalp sell which started at 47 as commented 10 mins ago on thread 1171 - still its early - need another coffee and bacon sarnie to get me focused again ;-))
 
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