Intraday Live short term trading calls from an Expert Retail Forex Trader

[Forexmospherian]

Yes - always a difficult one to judge - it was the time window you entered at half hr change which was a better one - this hr one is OK but as you say it may well be worth waiting for pullbacks

This is always a dilemma for scalpers - eg - Under 9095 - swissy a scalp sell - but at 9085 swissy became a scalp buy - but only can be held if price goes over 96 and 98

 

[Forexmospherian]

MM - Your Eu scalp buy needs 56 and 61 to hold it on with low lasting another and 20 mins for chance a of a turn

15 mins ago I said this MM - and I notice EU only made 55 and 52 was a scalp sell but whilst above low still a scalp buy and now we might see it if 56 and 58 do get breached

 

[Forexmospherian]

EU now 56 and next R'S at 62-65 off down trendline

 

[Forexmospherian]

Got to pop out at 10.15pm - but will be back within the hour I think

For a Monday am its been fairly busy I suppose and missed out on good pips as not really fully prepared after doing that school run ;-)

GL to you guys - see you later

 

[Forexmospherian]

Just got back at desk at 12.03pm. Last 2 hours look as though they have been pretty boring unless you are just scalping

The AU as now found supports from 9125 - and now need over 45 and 48 to hold scalp buys on longer.

EU did break under 3540 - but still trying to turn again with price back again at 3541.

GU dropped over 50 pips after the 40 pip news rise and is out of sync with EU and AU.

Swissy - 9110 is approx R zone - so whilst under more scalp sells - and only hold any new scalp buys above 08 on if we see over 9114 and 17

In for an hour or so - so now looking for new moves on any of the main 6 pairs I normally trade

 

[Forexmospherian]

Hi F I have work this pm unfortunately, seems like we wont coincide today!

Hi MM - I have a couple of domestic jobs to do - as well as reply to some queries and questions in this thread - so probably will not be making many calls to later on - as normal Monday lunchtime slowness atm.

It fine for scalping - ie like scalp buys on AU and EU - but don't want to keep discussing 3-7 pip moves all day - hope a few over 20 pips at least ;-))

Have a good afternoon

Regards

F

 

[Forexmospherian]

Noticed AU / EU and even GU all been scalp buys since end of hr time window - but only in 2 pairs and will take 70% stakes off both within next 3 mins and leave the 30% stake in profit 2 pips above relevant entries

 

[Forexmospherian]

Must not forget EJ and EA as well on scalp buys from this half an hour time window - - still not hit high enough to look at holding those pairs yet though - would need over 139.24 and 27 on EJ and 4823 and 27 on EA

 

[Forexmospherian]

You must be on a wind up, MUST be.

The idea that one bank or small group of banks will 'win all the monies' in the fx market is beyond schoolboy ridiculous. Honestly I had interns from first year Uni who understood this stuff with more clarity than you do...

Are you saying that intraday moves are by prop traders alone....? You can't sit there in your cave making this stuff up and then stating it as definite fact. Eurgh, you're using small timeframe exchange product logic to explain moves in the fx market. Did Al Brooks do this to you? Even he knows there are many participants in the fx market who are not seeking direct profit from that trade. A significant number of large client orders are hedges.

What is with this 1 million retail traders nonsense? You mean retail traders that have ever opened an account because they see fxpro on a fkin Fulham shirt? They don't provide any volume and are irrelevant. The regularly active number is nowhere near that. The US is by far the biggest retail market with just under 100k - http://forexmagnates.com/exclusive-q3-2013-us-retail-forex-broker-profitability-report-ib-1/ - and the average account size is pitiful even if you account for those 'active' accounts.

DB are the biggest non sovereign player in the FX market - you can see their Q3 statement if you like, it's a public document. There you will find that despite facilitating the most volume in both prop and agency, their total trading activities (so not just fx) net them less than half a billion quid a quarter. Maybe it's because you're giving away the secrets of the Pharaohs away on your thread and squeezing everyone else out of the game.

Hi Random

These last comments from you are actually showing you are living in the past Forex commercial world of pre 2007 to about 2009.

The only real point I would agree with you on is Deutsche Bank being probably the largest player in the Forex markets with latest estimates - depending on who you want to believe - with them having somewhere between 15.8 % and 22% of the total market volume.

I will attach a file with a breakdown of cake share - surprised GS so low really but not surprised that just 5 or 6 Banks have over 50% market share.

Now on to the bit you don't seem to have much clue about - ie the retail section of the Forex world.

Latest estimates from 2012 / 13 say retail account for between 8% and 11% of total market share - depending on who's stats

In terms of numbers - the market is unregulated as you know - but now the US is way behind - mainly due to all the financial problems there as well as broker / trader regulation changes on leverage etc etc.

Yet again - depending on who you want to believe - there is estimates of between 1.5 million to 2.6 million retail traders trading through 1000's of brokers world wide.

The US population only account for 5% of the 7+ trillion world population - and with the fast growth in new emerging forex markets including India, Russia and other areas in the Far East - Retail as been growing fast. ( God know's why ???)

So forget US FXCM etc retail dominance etc - there's nearly 200 counties forex trading in the retail market - with many illegally and of course through non regulated brokers who just don't have to report their figures to any WW board.

When I came into retail forex trading - the total market was approx 2.5 -3 trillion dollars in size and it was supposed to have grown five fold from the mid 1990's

Nowadays estimates range on the total forex market being between 4 and 5 trillion dollars - ie the largest financial market in the world - but with it being unregulated how many billions going through are from illegal sources including drug smuggling and money laundering activities- nobody really know ;-)

I personally don't think there are over 2 million retail forex traders who trade at least every quarter. In 2002 estimates were under half a million then - but with now retail accounting for between 8-11% of this new increased markets - compared to less than 6% of a smaller size in 2000.

Anyway - back to numbers again - my favourite ;-)

Even if there are only 750k retail world forex traders - ie Under half of latest estimates - then the top 5% who would being making profits consistently would be approx 37-38000 traders in total .

Every month - thousands leave the industry - either giving up or losing their monies - but then as you know 1000's are starting off on their own forex trading journey all around the World

The Industry worry about this high "churn rate" - but as we know its there own fault for selling the "dream" and the regulators just believing all the banks etc that there is no manipulation and HFT is good for liquidity and is helpful for keeping spreads so low etc etc. Yes normal commercial BS.

See attachment - but still now 2 years out of date

Regards

F

 

[Forexmospherian]

Must not forget EJ and EA as well on scalp buys from this half an hour time window - - still not hit high enough to look at holding those pairs yet though - would need over 139.24 and 27 on EJ and 4823 and 27 on EA

EJ now at 139.32 and EA at 4825 - take 70% take off if in a new scalp from levels previously mentioned over an hour ago

 

[Forexmospherian]

Coming up to hr change and only have 30% stakes still on EA and EJ scalp buys. Think I will take all off EA at 4848 ( largest gain ;-) ) and just leave the 30% scalp buy on EJ with stop in profit from 29 - if it goes so be it ;-)

 

[Forexmospherian]

Notice AU and GU have been falling whilst I have been in the other 2 pairs. We might get bounces or retraces again now but under 6385 - GU still a scalp sell and now need 6360 to let go - GL

 

[Forexmospherian]

Out in 15 mins again.

EJ and EA still rising and only have 30% stake left on EJ and move stop up again to 139.40 - and if stopped out - no problem

GU still needs under 6363 and 60 to hold scalp sells under 85 and latest one at 74 - otherwise pull and scalp buy over 80+

EU - need over 3549 and 52 to hold any scalp buy on - otherwise under 36 and 30 back in scalp sell

GL - see you later

 

[Forexmospherian]

Back again for 3,30 pm UK time window . It looks like throwing out time at the pub ;-) ie manipulation par excellence to take traders out of any trades they might be in profit on ;-)

Left GU on and it went down to 43 - but I had to take 6361 on scalp sell from 74 - as not back in time to catch more pips and no target was set

Thrown out EJ free trade on 30% at 139 40 but at least that stop was in a good profit rather than just 5 or 10 pips

Great scalping action meanwhile ;-))

 

[Forexmospherian]

EA - don't want to talk about as called the buy ages ago and came out at 25 pips profit thinking done well - with price at 4849 - and now since then its been up another 28 pips - silly me - again - still over my 50 pips target for the day - and after all - it is a Monday ;-)

 

[random12345]

Hi Random

All I see is garbage you've magicked up - no hard facts except for the one agreeing with me... interesting.

Manipulation is a term coined by people like you to appear superior to your peers - they believe you understand the markets so deeply that you also understand the big evils must be manipulating and that you know how and you know when. Except you have literally NO idea how markets may be manipulated or what that would require. Classic bollox.

The retail volume proportion of 8% has remained consistent for quite a few years, suggesting that all this low access stuff has just allowed more idiots with no money to come into the market... great. They have not diluted the bigger retail players who clip 3+ yards a month. Hardly surprising that online gambling and poker have seen a decline in the same time while those with a few hundred quid have a go courtesy of Fulham. Chump level forex is already declining as market forces wise up the general public.

Please stop saying numbers are your favourite Mr AAT....

 

[Forexmospherian]

Out in 15 mins again.

EJ and EA still rising and only have 30% stake left on EJ and move stop up again to 139.40 - and if stopped out - no problem

GU still needs under 6363 and 60 to hold scalp sells under 85 and latest one at 74 - otherwise pull and scalp buy over 80+

EU - need over 3549 and 52 to hold any scalp buy on - otherwise under 36 and 30 back in scalp sell

GL - see you later

Re post from 2 hrs ago approx - EU had not reached 52 when I went out so left now scalp buy on - was only still in GU and EJ.

Now from this last time window on the half hr EU as risen above 3552 and made 3561 so far. Yes scalp bought it but not one I can claim here now as only 5 pips and have not kept on as out again at the hour change.

Above 3550 - Eu is a scalp buy still but will hit more R's by 65-70 area

 

[Shakone]

 

[Forexmospherian]

Hi MM - just done a new thread on LR's in the TA part of the forum - and out for a bit now - but should be back after 10pm or so

Just seen a new thread on a MA strategy in the section of the forum - love to comment but promised the admins I will keep to my own threads

Notice the wolf pack are out in force and pulling this other guy's thread apart - and so they should - its pretty crap and most traders would have trouble making much dough on that method

Keep the good work up - you wolf hounds - its a all good fun but amazed the Admin allow this type of mass attack etc etc - but It must work - ie nobody will ever dare post in the future - just in case it gets pulled to pieces ;-)

That great for me - I must get another ten threads out - just to keep them busy - lol

See you later

Regards

F

 

[Forexmospherian]

e/j 07:43 to 08:20 what an ugly rollover.. Is this the sort of p.a you steer clear of when choosing pairs in the morning F?

Yes - normally there will always be a pair that will have a smoother PA ;-)