Ignorance is bliss

[wasp]

FFS! I'm turning into Jtrader here... keep returning, vowing to post nothing of worth and I'm back asking questions again! Anyhow...............

I am a lowly retailer, a sheep amongst the crowd. At my disposal, charts and data figures. All in all, sweet FA.

I appreciate I will never be 'in the know' but would like a thread where those who are, could enlighten us on things we could and should be at least aware of, can look into to have a better idea, or just highlight how clueless we really are...

From front running to 'between the lines' news and from .............? to the damn Russians, enlighten us retailers just how ignorant we are when we watch the markets.






(before anyone starts, I know I don't need this info and its all probabilities and a plan etc, I'd just like it!)

 

[arabianights]

Take a look at brokertalk (http://www.brokertalk.co.uk/) - slightly tangental but you may find it interesting.

 

[Martinghoul]

I would be happy to provide what commentary I can on matters that move my mkt...

 

[megamuel]

Buy USD/JPY every day at 1:15PM GMT for gauranteed 20 point profit. Now you have it...

Sam.

 

[everyonerich]

Buy USD/JPY every day at 1:15PM GMT for gauranteed 20 point profit. Now you have it...

Sam.

so do u trade this way? can show us some history trade and how long you've been trading like this?

thx

 

[Martinghoul]

Buy USD/JPY every day at 1:15PM GMT for gauranteed 20 point profit. Now you have it...

Sam.

Is this when your Excel finishes calculating the deltas from the previous day and you can finally hedge ?

 

[MrGecko]

Of course, trading my own account and having never graced the stages on an IB desk, I am just as much in the dark as most. However, I do suggest that one stops by amazon and picks up a book on the major Economic Indicators and how to interpret them;

For example, I can pick my way through the Employment Situation report if I choose to do so - I know where to find it, and I know a bit about what's worth looking for.

 

[megamuel]

....and the T2W Award for the Most Gullible Member goes to.......

so do u trade this way? can show us some history trade and how long you've been trading like this?

thx

Sorry everyonerich if I gave you false hope and you thought you had the holy grail for a moment there. I didn't expect anyone to take it seriously, I was just joking. You could try it though but really, its never going to be that easy - be carefull what you read on internet forums!

Sam.

 

[MrGecko]

I guess you are talking about Gamma... err.. Gamma?

But where can we find (or work out) this stuff if don't get OTC option quotes?

what/who do you mean by "riskies"?

thanks

 

[wasp]

OK - here are a few to try and help matey

1) Beware the fix times. Primarily 13:15 (ECB), 16:00 (WMR) but also 12:00 (FFT) to a lesser extent. Not every day, but plenty of times per month. Price action round these times can be choppy.

Cool, I assume GMT, easy enough and noted.

2) If possible try and find out what the options market is up to. Four things I'd look at in general;

i) What is vol doing?
ii) Where are the big expiring strikes on a given day?
iii) Where are the barriers that are in range?
iv) What are the riskies doing?

I'm sure an options expert will have more to add, but this stuff is definitely stuff to be aware of, especially when it's really moving.

How?! Where does one with just metatrader and firefox come accross this info day to day?

3) How is the market positioned? What are the funds doing? What are the short termers doing? Where's the weak hand?

Of course, a lot of this stuff is both time intensive to collate and hard to come by unless you're privy to it. Plus it's not really just a snapshot. Everything needs to be put in context of what's gone before it. That's why I hate hate hate the first couple of days back after going away on holiday or whatever - I feel totally out of touch.

GJ

Cheers!

 

[wasp]

Another one, whilst your here...

A little birdie the other day told me that apart from the herd, the main movers (in FX) are NOT IB's but, the CB's and HF's...? Any thoughts on that?!

 

[barjon]

oooh - a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, waspy :cheesy:

just stay in ignorance and keep that trading account of yours bubbling along and groaning under the weight of all that profit.

good trading

jon

 

[wasp]

knowledge is power though Jon!

 

[everyonerich]

....and the T2W Award for the Most Gullible Member goes to.......

Sorry everyonerich if I gave you false hope and you thought you had the holy grail for a moment there. I didn't expect anyone to take it seriously, I was just joking. You could try it though but really, its never going to be that easy - be carefull what you read on internet forums!

Sam.

in real life i teach ppl how to trade and if they dont make any money after my lessons, i refund their money, no questions asked.

 

[MrGecko]

Not just talking about Gamma - talking half gamma half vega mate.

Duly noted and off to hit the books!

Riskies are Risk Reversals.

Do you mean something like carry trades and the appetite for risk? I mean... borrowing JPY @ a cheap rate, converting into USD, and investing in risky assets? And the reverse, taking risk held in USD off the table and holding high yielding currencies like AUD and NZD?

Or am I waaayy off mark?

 

[wasp]

Sounds like a smart cookie

Despite that slightly altering my viewpoint, the market still proves the basis of my trading to be sufficient yet, whereas an IB trader I would expect to view a chart before entering a market, would a CB? Does the CB just do what it needs to regardless or do they have teams of traders.

I have an image of the Baring bank suits in Nick Leesons 'Rogue trader' all sitting around saying X, Y and Z but certainly not worrying too much about whether there is a HrL or S/R breach on the hourly chart!

 

[fibonelli]

I appreciate I will never be 'in the know' but would like a thread where those who are, could enlighten us on things we could and should be at least aware of, can look into to have a better idea, or just highlight how clueless we really are...[/I]

Any excuse to bump my two threads
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/news-current-affairs/39416-hyperinflation-warning-2.html
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/news-current-affairs/41546-sovereign-debt-default-warning-fibonelli-s-own-thread.html

After reading these, you can't say you weren't warned in 2008/9.

 

[Martinghoul]

Duly noted and off to hit the books!



Do you mean something like carry trades and the appetite for risk? I mean... borrowing JPY @ a cheap rate, converting into USD, and investing in risky assets? And the reverse, taking risk held in USD off the table and holding high yielding currencies like AUD and NZD?

Or am I waaayy off mark?

Sorry, what carry trades? Rates everywhere are at 0 or heading there... Beyond that, I also think they have been somewhat discredited of late, what with HRE, Sachsen and others.

 

[wasp]

Not just talking about Gamma - talking half gamma half vega mate.

Half what and what now? Damnit! Am I going to have to learn about bleedin' options now too!

 

[everyonerich]

Having seen your posts here, frankly I continue to be stunned by this.

So come on - what is the pearl of wisdom about the market and its workings that you wish to add to this thread if you're so very clever?

1.) im not clever

2.) no such thing as guaranteed sys in market, any market.. its all coming down to money management, and high probability entry. once you got the "edge" keep it up, live by the rules & repeat the same thing, your account should be steadily growing