I have found the Holy Grail indicator for the Dow Jones - 100% right so far

[TEAMTRADER]

If you look at post 1586, Batsonar is using real money.
TEAMTRADER

 

[batsonar]

Just finished back testing my new strategy 100 times on the US 30 on a 30 minute time frame and I got a win rate of 79% which is quite impressive really. Some of the wins were massive. I'm going to forward test it now. I let my trades run. I exit the trade on the next buy or buy signal. Let me know what you think of the win rate.

 

[AriaS]

Just finished back testing my new strategy 100 times on the US 30 on a 30 minute time frame and I got a win rate of 79% which is quite impressive really. Some of the wins were massive. I'm going to forward test it now. I let my trades run. I exit the trade on the next buy or buy signal. Let me know what you think of the win rate.

Win rate means nothing. Only the PF and risk/reward mean something. But as long as the former is more than 1.0 and the latter is good too, you are fine. The question is how statistically representative the back test is.

 

[batsonar]

Win rate means nothing. Only the PF and risk/reward mean something. But as long as the former is more than 1.0 and the latter is good too, you are fine. The question is how statistically representative the back test is.

How else are you supposed to measure a trading system to see if its worth trading or not if you don't measure the win rate. I had 79 good winning trades as opposed to 22 small losing trades because of using a stop loss. That is plain and simple a win rate of 79% back testing the strategy 100 times. The win rate of a strategy to me is very important.

 

[AriaS]

How else are you supposed to measure a trading system to see if its worth trading or not if you don't measure the win rate. I had 79 good winning trades as opposed to 22 small losing trades because of using a stop loss. That is plain and simple a win rate of 79% back testing the strategy 100 times. The win rate of a strategy to me is very important.

Let's say you had 10 trades. 8 trades that earned $10 each and 2 trades that lost $50 each. 80% win rate!
That's why PF is the only real measure for win rate. And risk/reward ratio is also important for assessing your risk of blowing your whole capital. Win rate is only relevant when SL=TP, but then it's simply the same idea as the PF.

 

[batsonar]

Let's say you had 10 trades. 8 trades that earned $10 each and 2 trades that lost $50 each. 80% win rate!
That's why PF is the only real measure for win rate. And risk/reward ratio is also important for assessing your risk of blowing your whole capital.

I know what you are saying but a stop loss takes care of the losing trades. My strategy still has an incredible win rate of 79% period. That's the only way to measure a trading system to see if its any good or not.

 

[AriaS]

I know what you are saying but a stop loss takes care of the losing trades. My strategy still has an incredible win rate of 79% period. That's the only way to measure a trading system to see if its any good or not.

Okay it looks like your PF is high enough anyway. But how about statistical representativeness? What period was back tested? 100 trades is too little. What was their distribution in time? What's the ratio of longs and shorts? Look at this old strategy of mine. Looks really good, isn't it? Later it failed. 143 trades during 1 month were not representative, obviously.

 

[batsonar]

Okay it looks like your PF is high enough anyway. But how about statistical representativeness? What period was back tested? 100 trades is too little. What was their distribution in time? What's the ratio of longs and shorts? Look at this old strategy of mine. Looks really good, isn't it? Later it failed. 143 trades during 1 month were not representative, obviously.

I didn't take note of the period that was back tested. I'm not going all over the trades again just to find that out. It doesn't make any difference what period it is. I'm on a 30 minute time frame. Why does the ratio of longs and shorts make a difference? A trades a trade regardless. Its a little hard to explain my system without you being in front of my laptop. I think 100 trades in back testing is enough to establish if a system works or not.

 

[batsonar]

This is my trading system at the moment on a 30 minute time frame.

 

[AriaS]

I didn't take note of the period that was back tested. I'm not going all over the trades again just to find that out. It doesn't make any difference what period it is. I'm on a 30 minute time frame. Why does the ratio of longs and shorts make a difference? A trades a trade regardless. Its a little hard to explain my system without you being in front of my laptop. I think 100 trades in back testing is enough to establish if a system works or not.

Are you back testing manually? You are supposed to be able to test years in half an hour. It seems that you don't care about basic principles of back testing.

 

[AriaS]

This is my trading system at the moment on a 30 minute time frame.

View attachment 321326

Looks like an illusion. Either you can make a serious back test or we will have to wait at least 1 year and see. Wait, is this a simple Heikin Ashi? 🤦‍♀️ It simply shows you what you can see yourself anyway. It simply smoothes out the noise.

 

[AriaS]

.

 

[batsonar]

Looks like an illusion. Either you can make a serious back test or we will have to wait at least 1 year and see.

I'm forward testing my trading system now in a live market environment. Let's see what I can achieve in the real world. Yes I back tested manually. I don't know how to use an automatic back testing system. Even if I back test a 1000 times I know I'm going to get the same win rate. I might try and back test it 500 times manually and then I will know if my system works or not.

 

[AriaS]

I'm forward testing my trading system now in a live market environment. Let's see what I can achieve in the real world. Yes I back tested manually. I don't know how to use an automatic back testing system. Even if I back test a 1000 times I know I'm going to get the same win rate. I might try and back test it 500 times manually and then I will know if my system works or not.

I've just noticed that this thread is from 2019 🙈 Not sleeping at these hours takes its toll. I guess you've been live trading since long ago by now. So how has your trading been for 3 years now?

 

[batsonar]

I just back tested manually my trading system from the 1st July 2021 on a 30 minute time frame. I tested 484 trades in total. I had 364 winning trades against 120 losing trades which gives a win rate of 75.2% on this particular trading strategy. This strategy is the best I have ever come across from the strategies I have seen on YouTube. With a win rate as high as this I'm going to feel confident in trading live.

 

[batsonar]

I just back tested my EzAlgo buy and sell indicator which is a paid indicator on Tradingview. I tested on a daily time frame on the US 30 from the 28th December 2012 and there were 138 trades in total. I had 92 winning trades against 46 losing trades. This means it has a win rate of 66.67% which is quite good really. Some of the wins were really big moves. You can definitely make a good profit using the EzAlgo indicator. Search Ez trades on YouTube for this indicator.

 

[AriaS]

I just back tested manually my trading system from the 1st July 2021 on a 30 minute time frame. I tested 484 trades in total. I had 364 winning trades against 120 losing trades which gives a win rate of 75.2% on this particular trading strategy. This strategy is the best I have ever come across from the strategies I have seen on YouTube. With a win rate as high as this I'm going to feel confident in trading live.

Now you're talking! Sounds really good! But are "your trading system" and "EzAlgo" 2 different systems? The former gave 484 trades in 1 year and the latter - 138 trades in 10 years.

 

[TEAMTRADER]

I know to some traders the Holy Grail is winning every single time you trade but a more realistic and achievable Holy Grail to a full time trader is a profit at the end of every day or at worst every week. Nothing longer than a week.
I have a UK pal who turned £300 into well over a third of a million in less than 18 months and an Australian pal who has never had a losing day in over three years.
So it is achievable to those who are very patient and dedicated.
TEAMTRADER

 

[batsonar]

Now you're talking! Sounds really good! But are "your trading system" and "EzAlgo" 2 different systems? The former gave 484 trades in 1 year and the latter - 138 trades in 10 years.

I have 2 systems. The EzAlgo indicator is a paid indicator on Tradingview. Its really good with the buy and sell signals. Also it automatically plots support and resistance levels which is useful. The 484 trades was on a 30 minute time frame using my new indicator I found on Tradingview. The 138 trades was on a daily time frame using only the EzAlgo buy and sell signals. Search Ez Trades on YouTube to get this indicator.

 

[batsonar]

I know to some traders the Holy Grail is winning every single time you trade but a more realistic and achievable Holy Grail to a full time trader is a profit at the end of every day or at worst every week. Nothing longer than a week.
I have a UK pal who turned £300 into well over a third of a million in less than 18 months and an Australian pal who has never had a losing day in over three years.
So it is achievable to those who are very patient and dedicated.
TEAMTRADER

Yes I agree with you. I think my indicators are the closest thing you are going to get to the Holy Grail trading system. A 75.2% win rate is quite high for a single indicator. If you can make a profit every day then you are on your way to success.