Hellen's thoughts

[Hellena Trade]

Well... I'll try to get back on the forum)
It's pretty cozy here, but I keep running out of time to do everything at once... I think you know how it is)
Well, let's see how much time I have this time.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#Oil
🛢Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 56,339.
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➡️Colleagues, I was watching the price and was expecting a pattern for a reversal downtrend. I still expect a downward movement and believe that the price is in a combined correction.
This means that wave “B” has been formed and I expect wave “C” to reach at least the 56,339 area.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#GOLD
🥇 GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area of 3300.
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➡️Dear colleagues, I still expect an upward movement, because I am sure that the five-wave movement is not over yet.
The price has updated the 3202 level, which means that wave “4” is a combined correction (WXY) and it is just completing its movement.
I expect the price to start an upward movement and reach at least the 3300 resistance area.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#GOLD
🔔(UPDATE)🥇 GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area of 3300.
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➡️Well, it seems that wave “4” is still formed and entering a position on the market was more appropriate. at this point, the price reached the level of 3251. I believe that after a small correction the price will update this level.
I recommend to set trade to breakeven.
(Breakeven=Risk Free: Move Stop loss to the entry level).

 

[Hellena Trade]

#Oil
🔔(UPDATE)🛢Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 56,339.
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➡️Colleagues, I expect the downtrend to resume in the coming week.
The area of 62,137 has been reached and now wave “C” is expected in the area of 56,339.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#EURUSD
🔔(UPDATE)🇪🇺EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistance area 1.14048.
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➡️Price is showing a nice bullish impulse towards 1.12659 level, which is quite positive within the forecast.
I expect the target of 1.14048 to be reached this week.

 

[gka]

#EURUSD
🔔(UPDATE)🇪🇺EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistance area 1.14048.
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➡️Price is showing a nice bullish impulse towards 1.12659 level, which is quite positive within the forecast.
I expect the target of 1.14048 to be reached this week.

Hi Hellena, thank you for your Elliott Wave analysis for the EURUSD. Thought I would give you some feedback on what the maths I use is saying about this FX pair. I call the maths the Volatility Response Model for FX or VRMFX for short.

The VRMFX gives a Short Term Trend Channel or STTC shown in blue top, middle and bottom of the charts attached. STTC is calculated 1 day into the future.

The VRMFX gives a Long Term Trend Channel or LTTC shown in green top, middle and bottom of the charts attached. LTTC is calculated 1 week into the future.

I see that you calculate your Elliott Wave analysis just on EURUSD. For the VRMFX I always use a triplet analysis because

EURUSD X USDJPY = EURJPY

So the maths analysis has to be consistent for all three FX pairs.

Do you use your Elliott Wave analysis on these 3 FX pairs to check consistency? Elliott Wave analysis on three FX pairs would show you which FX pair is leading, following or just standbying.

So I have attached the three VRMFX charts showing the STTC and LTTC for these three FX pairs.

When the FX pair is bearish the price action is below the middle of the trend channel. And when the FX pair is bullish then the price action is above the middle of the trend channel.

So the charts let you read off whether the FX pair is bullish or bearish in the short and long term by looking at where the price action is relative to the middle of the STTC and LTTC respectively.

EURUSD started the week short and long term bearish below the middle of its STTC and LTTC. The middle of its STTC today is 1.1196. The middle of its LTTC for the week is 1.1207.

So to reach your target of 1.14048 for EURUSD the EURUSD will have to find support on the middle of its STTC and LTTC.

You can carry out the same analysis for the USDJPY and EURJPY.

gka

 

[Hellena Trade]

EURUSD started the week short and long term bearish below the middle of its STTC and LTTC. The middle of its STTC today is 1.1196. The middle of its LTTC for the week is 1.1207.

So to reach your target of 1.14048 for EURUSD the EURUSD will have to find support on the middle of its STTC and LTTC.

Greetings! Are you saying that the probability of crossing the middle is small?

 

[Hellena Trade]

#BITCOIN
🔔(UPDATE)💰 BITCOIN (4H): LONG to resistance area of 110,000.
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➡️Colleagues, I believe that the price will continue the upward movement to the target. At the moment I expect a small correction, then an update of the 107.08 level.
I have a suspicion that wave "3" is not yet complete.
I recommend to set trade to breakeven.
(Breakeven=Risk Free: Move Stop loss to the entry level).

 

[gka]

Greetings! Are you saying that the probability of crossing the middle is small?

Thank you for your feedback!

I have no probabilities associated with the middle of the STTC and LTTC. The VRMFX just says that these are the levels at which the FX is bullish above and bearish below.

So you could put these levels on your chart to see if there is support/resistance.

Today the middle of the STTC is 1.1189 and the middle of the LTTC for this week is still 1.1207.

Today was a good example of why I always analyse triplets. In this case that would be

EURUSD X USDJPY = EURJPY

I attach the hourly EURUSD and USDJPY daily charts for today. As you can see EURUSD was following the USDJPY. USDJPY rebounded up from its daily level 144.11 at the 05:00 hour and EURUSD rebounded down following USDJPY.

Did you think to analyse USDJPY using the Elliott Wave method? If you are saying a rally of EURUSD up by selling USD then to be consistent your analysis should say falling of USDJPY and again selling USD.

gka

 

[Hellena Trade]

#GOLD
🔔(UPDATE)🥇 GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area of 3300.
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➡️Well, it seems that wave “4” is still formed and entering a position on the market was more appropriate. at this point, the price reached the level of 3251. I believe that after a small correction the price will update this level.
I recommend to set trade to breakeven.
(Breakeven=Risk Free: Move Stop loss to the entry level).

#GOLD
✔️🥇 GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area of 3300.
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Well done‼️

 

[Hellena Trade]

#BITCOIN
🔔(UPDATE)💰 BITCOIN (4H): LONG to resistance area of 110,000.
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➡️Colleagues, I believe that the price will continue the upward movement to the target. At the moment I expect a small correction, then an update of the 107.08 level.
I have a suspicion that wave "3" is not yet complete.
I recommend to set trade to breakeven.
(Breakeven=Risk Free: Move Stop loss to the entry level).

#BITCOIN
✔️💰 BITCOIN (4H): LONG to resistance area of 110,000.
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖

Well done‼️

 

[Hellena Trade]

#GOLD
🥇 GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area of 3439.37.
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➡️Colleagues, Last time, I suggested that the five-wave movement was not yet complete. It seems that this is indeed the case.
Wave "5" of the higher degree is unfolding, and I expect the price to reach the resistance area around 3439.37, which marks the top of wave "X".
Within the smaller five-wave structure, I believe wave "3" is currently in progress.
A correction toward the 3248.38 area is possible.