GOOG - Long or Short......?!

[alfine]

Another bullish performance from GOOG today with a break above previous resistance @ $397.50ish with the Cyborg algo’s clearly programmed to fake initial weakness over the opening gap, and then surging to take out as many short stops as possible (cynical or what?). The day high was within a few cents of $399.00.

Is this the last throw of the dice for the bulls or is a surge above $400 in the sights…?

I suspect the later as the Naz is showing strength and threatening a breakout above the years highs.


(About $100+ straight down would be nice….. )

I'm with you all the way back down Trade, I'v been calling this one both ways ever since the gap up a couple of weeks ago. Overall i'm showing a loss on this one but have very bearish sentiment. Today is the first day I'm holding an overnight position on GOOG. I expect a small gap down tomorrow but as you say -I have a bias

 

[josbarr]

Any comments on AMZN?

(Will be added to S&P this Friday)

 

[alfine]

Looks like Soros is a Google Bear

"Of course, don't expect Soros to make a quick killing on his latest mega-bet. Even if he guesses right, the tech stocks he has targeted are those of big-cap old-tech companies. In other words, he is passing on newer tech stocks -- like Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) -- which appear to have frothy valuations and seemingly infinite potential for appreciation on the surface. It seems that Soros believes the old-tech issues have been neglected for too long."
Soros Doubles Down on Tech The Motley Fool 11/16/05​

 

[PipSqueek]

I'm with you all the way back down Trade, I'v been calling this one both ways ever since the gap up a couple of weeks ago. Overall i'm showing a loss on this one but have very bearish sentiment. Today is the first day I'm holding an overnight position on GOOG. I expect a small gap down tomorrow but as you say -I have a bias

i would be careful trading goog so close to options expirary...it will be more volatile then normal , sucking in bulls and bears and leaving them at max pain. good trading.

 

[tradesmart]

posted above by josbarr
Any comments on AMZN?

If it's good enough to go on Soros's 'buy' list, it's good enough for me.....

posted above by PipSqueek
i would be careful trading goog so close to options expirary...it will be more volatile then normal , sucking in bulls and bears and leaving them at max pain. good trading.

yeh, they'll probably try to keep the price up thro' options expiration so GOOG puts (and there must be a lot of them) expire worthless or with minimal value.

I see that GOOG closed after hours at $399.95 - do you think it'll get to $400.....

 

[pttrader]

Any comments on AMZN?

(Will be added to S&P this Friday)

Headed south on 17th

 

[tradesmart]

GOOG's competition hots up......

Yahoo Inc. shares climbed 6 percent Wednesday, hitting a five-year high, amid expectations the company's earnings are poised to rise thanks to strong demand for advertising space on the Web portal.

Particularly notable were the calls that give the right to buy Yahoo! at $40 a share by the end of this week. November equity options expire on Friday 18th Nov.

Yahoo! was the favorite Web portal among investors during the Internet boom of the late 1990s. These days, its stock is trading at a discount to that of rival Google Inc. (Research) whose ad revenue has soared over the past few years.

Yahoo! shares closed Nasdaq trading Wednesday at about 50 times next year's full year's profit forecast of 75 cents a share, according to data from Reuters Estimates.

Google was valued at 46 times next year's profit forecast of $8.46

Wonder what the call demand is for GOOG at $400 before Friday – we’ll find out soon.

 

[tradesmart]

Gap and cr*p....?

Absurd valuation and GOOG’s gonna fill that gap imho……

I’ll post the chart again later to show you who’s right – Mr Bull or me…..

 

[tradesmart]

5/10.......

Oh well, 50% of the opening gap filled so 5/10 for wishful thinking..!

Clearly no time to have an ongoing short running on GOOG imho until it shows signs of weakness and that certainly ain’t now…

It’s hitting resistance in the high $403’s, but if the triangle breaks to the upside $408ish + could be on the cards and more…

It looked like it was rolling over until the Naz went into overdrive at about 19.30gmt, and off it went again…..

Bulls rool ok…..?!

"There is no question a lot of analysts think that Google is going to rule the world," said Darren Chervitz, director of research at Jacob Asset Management, which owns Google shares. But he cautions that "it is a business that is entirely dependent on advertising. It won't take much of a slowdown for people to question the multiple."

 

[PipSqueek]

MM's never fail to amaze, especially on GOOG, what precision!!

 

[tradesmart]

MM's never fail to amaze, especially on GOOG, what precision!!

Yes Pip, a close a few cents above $400........

They always find a way to shaft as many of the put/call holders as they can.....

 

[tradesmart]

No one rings a bell at the top......

Tradesmart –11/11/05
Looks like a 'top' on the chart, but I suspect there might be a 'rabid bull rocket ship' algorithm lurking in the electronic bushes, just waiting to take out all of those short stops at $400....!

Well that suspicion was confirmed with a vengeance this week.....

There may be more upside over $400 to come, but the weak finish today hints that it might want to close one or more of the gaps under first….(chart attached)

I recall that it poked it’s head just over $300 then withdrew below before eventually storming above….

However, no one rings a bell at the top and maybe we’ve seen it…..time will tell…

There’s quite a bit in the press now about MSFT/YHOO/EBAY hunting for a slice of GOOG’s advertising revenues, so maybe this will persuade the bigboyz that it’s time to give GOOG a serious haircut…

 

[timsk]

GOOG At The Top

There’s quite a bit in the press now about MSFT/YHOO/EBAY hunting for a slice of GOOG’s advertising revenues, so maybe this will persuade the bigboyz that it’s time to give GOOG a serious haircut…

The view that GOOG is set for a fall is also one offered by Joe Ross in the latest edition of his weekly 'Chart Scan Newsletter', issue No. 78 - although he cites different reasons to Tradesmarts'. He suggests that the stock is set to join the elite Hundred Hundred Club or 'Hunny Club' for short. To be eligible for membership, a stock must have a market value in excess of $100 billion and a P/E ratio in excess of - you've guessed it - 100. GOOG's market value is in the region of $111 billion while its P/E stands at 89 and rising.

Joe Ross writes: "If Google’s high valuation gets a little higher, its invitation to join the club will arrive shortly. If you are holding Google shares, look out below! I'm not yet ready to short Google, but the time is drawing near. The Google daily chart is proudly displaying an exhaustion gap. The weekly chart shows a "runaway gap."

You might be wondering who the other members of the Hunny Club are and what became of them? Answer: Cisco, down 76%; AOL Time Warner, down 64%; Oracle, down 69%; Nortel, down 92%; and EMC down 75%. But the star turn goes to JDSU, whose chart is attached. The stock joined the Hunny Club in March 2000 when its shares peaked around the $150 mark. It took just 18 months for them to plummet to a value of less than $10. Could GOOG's chart look similar to this in a couple of years time?
Tim.

 

[tradesmart]

Exhaustion Gap.....?

Things looked good for the GOOG bears in the early going today with an apparently decisive break below the ‘new’ $400 support and a gap down to prove it and two lower gaps filled; and what with Thursdays gap up, ‘island reversal’ sprang to mind…..

But no – a ‘V’ reversal at $390ish and near $20 climb later, the market reminded us that it thinks that GOOG is a $410 stock ….(or more)

This probably had something to do with it…….

UBS raises price target on Google to $500 (GOOG)
UBS Securities LLC on Monday raised its price target on Google Inc. (GOOG) to $500 from $430. "Google is a paradigm-changing company, and we believe in its long-term ability to leverage its infrastructure and talent in innovative ways," UBS Analyst Benjamin Schachter said in a note. It is the first time an analyst has set a $500 price target for Google.

UBS obviously have a big stake in GOOG…..

Any other offers……$600….$700….?!!

Well Berkshire Hathaway stock is $89,700/share so GOOG seems ‘cheap’ in comparison (mind you, BH have got Barren Wuffett at the helm.... )

 

[LION63]

Frugi,

It is a good thing that this trade was tongue in cheek and that you were not betting the kitchen sink. Otherwise you might end up squatting under Blackfriars Bridge.

GOOG Mar 2006 350 puts are currently on sale for $18.30.

In the interests of fun and possibly charity, might you be able to offer me a BETTER price, kind sir, say perhaps a round $18 for ease of calculation? ... if so I would like to buy one from you. Premium at a discount, if you like.

 

[frugi]

Oh but I was, LION. And now GOOG's relentless march has forced me to liquidate it to fulfil the wager. Washing up will never be quite the same again, sniff.

http://cgi.ebay.com/Royal-Doulton-W...014263684QQcategoryZ20603QQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

 

[tradesmart]

Shake that tree....

Otherwise you might end up squatting under Blackfriars Bridge.

Washing up will never be quite the same again, sniff

I adore the piquant trading verbiage that this thread is attracting, so keep it up chaps….!

From it’s humble beginnings at sub $100, GOOG is now on it’s 5th wave up, 3rd slope change; so the standard market text book ‘formula’ (imho..!) for a rising stock is being adhered to..

I suspect that another consolidation may begin soon with the mm’s shaking the tree a little with a short, sharp pullback to increase the ‘free-float’ of GOOG stock ready for a surge to the (a) ‘high’.

The ‘high’ could be the last number that you’ve read in the business press - $450/$500….

 

[tradesmart]

Shaking tree..

tradesmart above:-
I suspect that another consolidation may begin soon with the mm’s shaking the tree a little with a short, sharp pullback to increase the ‘free-float’ of GOOG stock ready for a surge to the (a) ‘high’.

Well that might be right, but it could be that most of the good news (and some!) is priced into GOOG now and the knives are coming out…

GOOG405.63, -17.85, -4.2%) slid $17 to $406.37 in afternoon trades.
Stanford Institutional Equity Research analyst Clayton Moran downgraded Google shares to hold from buy, citing a 40% run-up since he upgraded the stock before its third-quarter earnings release.
"While operating trends and stock momentum remain strong, we believe the near-term risk-reward trade off no longer justifies a buy rating," wrote Moran. The analyst also wrote that Google's pursuit of AOL is representative of an increasingly competitive environment, which will eventually begin to slow the company's growth.
Merrill analyst Rich Fine reiterated his neutral stance on Google shares, noting "anxiety" as the risk/reward factor leans more towards risk.
Google shares "are likely to be increasingly sentiment driven; Google is starting to attract more negative publicity as it has become incredibly dominant online and has started to encroach on other companies' businesses," Fine wrote.

So some profit taking has set in, but will GOOG have the strength to spike up to create a ‘lower’ high and take out a few short stops…?…..I reckon…!

From the chart perspective, it looks like the 261.8% fib extension of the last consolidation height + gap was the rationale for its reversal point….at least it fits..

But I note that it’s still hanging on to the $400’s…

(for now.. )

 

[stockdaily]

It will be long for me if it hits $400.

 

[tradesmart]

$64,000 question

tradesmart 29/11/05
will GOOG have the strength to spike up to create a ‘lower’ high and take out a few short stops…?…..

Yeh, not far out; but now it looks like a $40 triangle is in the making, and the $64,000 question is “which way will it break….?”

I’m tempted to call “down”, and a breakpoint at c$405 gives a target of $365, around the 50% fib retracement of the last upleg; but the GOOG bulls have made a mockery of bearish thoughts on many an occasion…..!

Plainly a break north could see the analysts target of $450 come true..

Trade the break imho…