FX trading Nov19 - Nov23

trendie

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new week, new ducks.
I will be mostly observing the markets, rather than trading, this week.
 
Interesting setup for EUR/YEN
 

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Swiss Franc/USD

Will this week see a bounce for this cross ? Regardless this is a ski slope to die for :LOL:

we are now hovering near 1.11 which was the big low of 1995... also 2004....if it breaks it's not good :cheesy: .. So it might honour that level for a little while.... ??
Now 1.1184

Lets see the struggle here......
 
Nice 15min Confirming Reentry set-up to take us back out of the asian/overnight 0564-0514 range. Hidden (reverse) /divergence and band deviation combines at the 78.6 fib of the intraday hi-lo move. 0564-0450.

Whether it makes a new low or not, it is still a fair 40pip move so far.

(15min Reentry type 1)
 

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Look too at where cable found that 0565 resistance earlier in the asian session: At the intersection of the breeched Dly supp T/line (x2 hit and holds as support) now acting as resistance . The area was also the new Dly Resistance T/line from the top at 1162 and this was it's first test.

Confluence at work again.
 

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5min chart below illustrates further re above: points 1 and 2 show where resistance failed in that 5min potential sbr zone.
 

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cable making higher lows on the intraday time frames off the 0450 lows earlier.

screencap shows the potential resistance zones on the 4hr. Todays current 0565 hi falls in that last 4hr potential SBr zone.
 

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You can see Double regular immediate bullish divergence and single regular immediate bearish divergence at friday's lows 0350/55 area, on the 1hr/4hr charts respectively.

Regular immediate divergence is the strongest of regular patterns of divergence, and the lead indicator [osma] has the required seperate peak/valley pattern.
 

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I am closing my short for - 27 pips loss and reversing my position Long
 

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B/L there Mr.Black.

The 30min screenshot shows the move up from this morning's lows too. As you can see there was an area of potential support there at the higher low, 100 up off the 0354 bottom, and although not shown here there was a fair hidden(reverse} divergence set-up there. Although price had made a higher high and higher low to create a potential RBS zone on that time frame, the danger was always the extent of the trend at that time...ok of course if your trigger is 1min, intermediate 5min and longer time frame/trend time frame is 30min as a long trend existed. Price had however made a higher swing low on 30min at the bottom of the RBS zone shown on the screencap (0425 area,) and gone on to make a higher swing hi, so when price retrested at the lows this morning it made another higher swing lo at 0450 area. On the hrly too a higher swing high existed with at todays current 0565 hi, the low at 0450 making a higher swing lo on that time frame.
 

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So, fairly subdued activity for last 5 1/2hrs of London/European session, the 15min chart telling the story....screenshot below. 115pips the current daily Hi-Lo pip range falling well below the 5, 10, and 20day averages of 263, 215, and 178 respectively, and friday's 200.
 

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A mixed day today, typical in cable after strong moves up/down.

I am still ruing the loss of 170 pips made last monday and going back to my long term strategy.

Long cable at 501, stop 440, target 626. Would have been better off until break of 568 but hey ho. Both 1 and 4hr have done bullish divergences and at 530 we have support on the daily chart.

If its goes wrong, will wait for break of 345. More likely, cable will vacillate between 350 and 570 for the next few days.
 

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I am closing My long for +12 pips profit.... -27 + 12 .... -15 net loss for today....
 

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This weekly thread seems to have died off, shame.

Strong up move in cable this morning finding resistance atm at the Dly R3, Wkly H3, 176.4 extension of yesterday, 61.8% of 0844-0351, 38.2% of 1162-0351, Mni say 'Medium offers 0655/60, stops above' resistance cluster: 2.0655-60 area.

The earlier re-entry off the 0581 area (Wkly pivot) found that support in the last 5/15min RBS zone, as was then, after the retrace off that resistance level.
 
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I was talking last week about that 4hr/Dly congestion zone 0242-0496 from early - mid october potentially being hard to break through and having a good chance of offering support, as these zones can do. the 4hr chart shows it and as we know the top of the zone was breeched to the upside again , with support found at 0351 area on Friday.
 

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The screenshot shows the 1min trigger and 5min confirming set-up at that resistance cluster dscribed above. Although not shown the 5min too breeched the fib tunnels and donchian channels.

207pips up from the lows now. Support currently being found at the 23.6% fib of todays move up which fals in the last 5/15min potential RBS zone...0651-0581

(1min Reversal A [ii] seq with 5min Reversal C confirm.}
 

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Nice setup here on USDCAD

Long 9756 on the 61.8 retrace following the reaction from a marginal type C reversal setup.

Technical trend up on 1h+4h charts, and entry was in 1h RBS zone.

Trade has moved quickly, while writing this I took half off at 161.8 extension (9776), and when price reached 261.8 extension at 9793, I moved the stop on the remaining half in to 9776 as well.

Limit/target on this remaining half is 9821.

EDITS
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Stopped out on remaining half 9776, net gain +20 on full position.

USDCAD then flies higher on news... typical :)
 

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Graeme; good trade mate.

the screenshot shows the perfect 5min hidden divergence set-up from the 0580 area afetr the intital move down off the current local resistance level up there at 0650-60 level. This type of set-up doesn't get much better. Notice too the 2nd test of that support made it a stronger set-up.

(5min Reentry type 4.)
 

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Just entered USDCHF short 1.1101 on this setup. Stop is at 1.1115 offered.

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Saxo traded to 1115.3 offered but didn't trigger my stop, so still hanging in there on this one. It's actually now a better setup with the 5min type B reversal.

Took +1; entry was actually a mistake looking back, and got lucky with the stop not being filled. Will use capital for another trade.
 

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