FX trading Nov12 - Nov16

[trendie]

new week. days are getting colder, so am more appreciative of being snug in my home-office.
have not been trading as much, due to external domestic issues, but have been watching screen, with no risks.

what is it with this current vogue for leaving T2W? Its like some weird Brief Encounter scene. will we be having a "hi, I'm back" swathe of threads in due course?

hows JillyBs 7-am pivot thing? that seemed to be mentioned a while back, but no update?

Keep feeding your ducks!

 

[shadowninja]

Morning. Hope your domestic issues have been sorted out.

Am long EUR/USD; it's touched a trend line on the 4 hour chart and poked 14,600 but pulled back above it. Most indicators are on the right side for going long (as in, they're all at the bottom or near the bottom). We shall see! (Am only doing a minimal amount as a sighter. If I'm right, I'll put a bit more in later. If I'm wrong, it won't have cost me a lot to find out.)

 

[de123]

true indeed days are getting colder...i think the euro and cable on a weekly base,...are going to 1.4111, and 2.0111,...(many stocks in europe needs to rebound) by december the 10 i expect them to bottom,..after that i think it would be wise to long it,...also i think that canadian is going south,..against the euro and dolar,..more with the dollar,...yen crosses, i dont know but i got a feeling that they are going to be in range untill many japans report are going to be published...

 

[FXSCALPER2]

It is going to be tricky with US closed for holiday, but I have my eye on JPY crosses. The credit crunch issue is still the underlying theme. AUD is the best indicator for this particular story. Every time that issue is in play, the AUD gets hammered. So long as the resistance (previous support) at 111.64 on USDJPY holds, watching the AUDUSD carefully to see it is still down should provide a good play on AUDJPY. Outright AUDUSD shorts are less attractive if you are looking for big moves, although this morning both seemed to have moved about the same amount. The Chinese FX regulator stated this morning that they look to make the CYN 'fully convertible' over time. On this and technicals, EURJPY shorts should be good bets as long as the present sentiment holds. Moves against positions can be abrupt when sentiments change. It is therefore crucial to have a game plan to exit positions if that happens.

Any USDJPY rise should be a good short with stops above the August lows. Modest recoveries on AUDUSD should set up shorts below today's high at 0.9020. For Good risk:reward trades looking for big moves AUDJPY shorts, when/if the main pairs hit those leves, should be attractive. Another play I like is a momentum move on USDJPY taking out today's lows. If that happens, I would add to shorts on any moves that look strong. This is usually the case when retracements are shallow or the move hardly stops. But I am aware shorting on breakout at these levels usually shows an initial loss. Any losing trades should be closed quickly as the failed breakouts tend to mean that reversals are relatively big. In those situations it makes sense to exit and try to get back in if/when the initial move up looks exhausted.

Lets go get them!!

 

[2be]

Good morning, slowish Monday, though cable for a while was out of sync with the eur/usd giving a short scalp poss, Eur/usd seemes to prefer south for the moment.
Happy trading to all, 2be

 

[bbmac]

Hello all, nice down move again in cable so far today.


The first and second screenshots show the hidden divergence re-entry set-ups on the 30min and 15min at that 0865 level. Looking more closely and zooming into the 5min, which was an oscillator extreme set-up at that same level,..notice how horizontally the 60 bol (lime green) intersected the other 3 (10=aqua, 20=white, 40 = pink) akin to the old JoeRoss 'gimme' bar set-up. Anyway nice confirming set-ups on thiose charts for a short entry.

You will see too on the 5min chart the hidden divergence marked on the oscillators at that 0825 level (in 2 of the cocillators not macd...hence an imperfect set-up, but good enough with other confluential factors) to confirm the 1min set-up there which is the last screenshot posted.

(0865area: 30min Reentry type 4, 15min Reentry type 1)
(0825area: 5min Reentry type 4 [imperfect,] trigger: 1min Reversal A.)

 

[graemenash]

Hi all

The main downside of waiting for retracements after a good signal is the fact that sometimes you just don't get them! Shame as that GBP/USD setup around the 0825 level was a good one.

Similar story on USD/CAD 5min chart around 8.15gmt this morning, and Bund futures 5min around 10.30 for that matter! Still waiting for the first trade of the week...

 

[de123]

...sorry guys, but ff is closed so ill hang here if no problem,..yesterday i entered 4 trades, couldnt enter cable short, but did enter canadian short,..on friday i was scalping the CAD/JPY,...i made 50 trades,..man that was the drop of the year,...and intermediate term,..if oil goes down,...and yen goes up, the safest bet is still short cad/jpy...or to do the hedge like eur/jen short,...eur/can long,...or USD/can long, and USD/JPY short....

 

[bbmac]

agree graeme, the fib retracements remain possible areas of re-entry and are best when line up with sbr or rbs areas, whereas the chart actually shows us the areas of supp or res, likley to act in the opposite way on a break though whilst trending.

on that 0825area the area fell just short of the 61.8 fib of the move from the daily top, thereby testing the set-up as we discussed last week??

The attached 5min chart shows it well, look where resistance was found at that 0825 area, a previous higher swing low on the way up on that intermediate chart and again on the 2nd screenshot at that support area on the way up 0780 area now resistance..

 

[Mr.Black]

I am short on EUR/USD

 

[FXSCALPER2]

Any upward runs on JPY crosses are a sell. AUDJPY is especially a good bet given the severe downward bias on AUDUSD. Tight stops are not a good idea, so scaling in against any rallies with reasonable stops should be good. Watch for any strong rallies on USDJPY. AUDUSD likely to touch lows at 0.88, so should give a push to AUDJPY lows. All the best.

 

[FXSCALPER2]

For you TA followers out there, note the perfect double top formation on EURJPY with the neckline at 160.50 (just got notified by TTN). Apparently, the measured move targets 153.50. Now, that is one good position trade!

 

[bbmac]

Nice trigger chart hidden/reverse divergence/band deviation set-up in the last intermediate (5min) potential SBR zone 0699-0727...even for just a re-test of the lows area (1hr spinning top candle body base.)

199 pips off the highs now in cable, another good daily pip range to start the week, not quite Friday's 282, but still above the 5/10/20day averages.



(1min Reentry type 1)

 

[graemenash]

Market doesn't want to give me anything today!

EURUSD 1min type a reversal confirmed by 5min hidden div + 5/15min SBR zones etc.

Order placed to sell on the 61.8 retracement of the original reaction at 1.4576.... Saxo trades up to a high of 1.45755 before selling off again

watching a similar setup in EURCHF at the moment.

 

[FXSCALPER2]

Market doesn't want to give me anything today!

EURUSD 1min type a reversal confirmed by 5min hidden div + 5/15min SBR zones etc.

Order placed to sell on the 61.8 retracement of the original reaction at 1.4576.... Saxo trades up to a high of 1.45755 before selling off again

watching a similar setup in EURCHF at the moment.

So why not enter it at 75,74 or 73 for example?

 

[bbmac]

5min potential SBR zone becomes 0669-0714 as price retraces back slightly off 0648 area to find resistance just below it for another great trigger hidden/reverse divergence and band deviation trend re-entry set-up.

This 'gapping' or blow-off as another trend trader calls it elsewhere, tends to occur near the end of a trend, and as these are intraday time frames I am working off, I am making the working assumption that we might be near the London/European session bottom at 259pips Hi-lo today. That said U.s bank hol could provide thin conditions for the europeans to drive it lower. All good fun.

 

[Mr.Black]

I am closing My short for +14 pips profit... My timing was little off but the context was right...

 

[graemenash]

So why not enter it at 75,74 or 73 for example?

Because it's not in the rules of my system to do so No 61.8 touch, no trade as far as I'm concerned.

I have an alternative entry method which would have got me in earlier but that needs more testing before I trade it live.

 

[FXSCALPER2]

Because it's not in the rules of my system to do so No 61.8 touch, no trade as far as I'm concerned.

I have an alternative entry method which would have got me in earlier but that needs more testing before I trade it live.

Oh I see. All the best to you, graemnash.

 

[Mr.Black]

I am short on EUR/USD