Dentalfloss
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dowsp..market is too wild for swing trades
it might calm down a bit
it might calm down a bit
FTSE, DAX, DOW Trading Ideas and discussions
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Dentalfloss
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a swing trade in this market is 30 mins.....lol
Dentalfloss
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dax possibly breaking down
no real confirmation as yet
no real confirmation as yet
Dentalfloss
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all have a great weekend
Moneylender
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Cheers dentist, same to you.
Thanks for your comments Money lender and Dentist 007.
I note your comments. and I will try and follow.
When I refer to swing trades... yes the markets wild.. but if that is a spike low.. I think it could take off on a longer term move over a few days and maybe retest the 16750 to 17000 level on the Dow...or 1996 to 2020 level on the SPX. maybe in the next 1 to 2 weeks. maybe even 2060 on the SPX by end of month...
sometimes you get almost as quicker rallys as you do on declines when spike lows form... once the market has got over its initial shock ..The trends sometimes then forms and the moves reverse in a similar inverse pattern to the decline.
since the Aug 24th Low and initial attempted rally... the market declined back down and been a pain being in a sideways range...
sometimes you see a market reverse quickly back up.. other times it will be a pain and stay sideways some weeks... but then make a large move in the reverse direction. to its initial decline.
Its been about 36 days between the Aug 24th low and the last low made on the 29th Sept... so its had quite along time to even out a while...sometimes when looking at the formation you can get some idea what it may do next. and from looking at past similar scenerios.. I have seen similar patterns to what we have now.. and at times they have resulted in some good moves after the market had calmed down and dust settled ..only to then spark up again....
we had a great 5 to 6 days down when it broke down in mid August.
we may get a similar 5 day move back up to that same level it broke down from.
Another possibility that I see if the markets still longer term bearish..
On the Dow... it MAY rally back to the 16700 level and make another longer term head and shoulder formation...and then have another large decline.
If it does get there I will then look to cover with some put options as I think we could see a quick decline again this month if we are still in bear mode. October is often a month for such declines. especially between Oct 10th to 20th.
I do like to consider some day trades but also 1 to 4 weeks trades if the market looks like it may take one longer term direction.
Dentist007
dowsp..market is too wild for swing trades
it might calm down a bit
I note your comments. and I will try and follow.
When I refer to swing trades... yes the markets wild.. but if that is a spike low.. I think it could take off on a longer term move over a few days and maybe retest the 16750 to 17000 level on the Dow...or 1996 to 2020 level on the SPX. maybe in the next 1 to 2 weeks. maybe even 2060 on the SPX by end of month...
sometimes you get almost as quicker rallys as you do on declines when spike lows form... once the market has got over its initial shock ..The trends sometimes then forms and the moves reverse in a similar inverse pattern to the decline.
since the Aug 24th Low and initial attempted rally... the market declined back down and been a pain being in a sideways range...
sometimes you see a market reverse quickly back up.. other times it will be a pain and stay sideways some weeks... but then make a large move in the reverse direction. to its initial decline.
Its been about 36 days between the Aug 24th low and the last low made on the 29th Sept... so its had quite along time to even out a while...sometimes when looking at the formation you can get some idea what it may do next. and from looking at past similar scenerios.. I have seen similar patterns to what we have now.. and at times they have resulted in some good moves after the market had calmed down and dust settled ..only to then spark up again....
we had a great 5 to 6 days down when it broke down in mid August.
we may get a similar 5 day move back up to that same level it broke down from.
Another possibility that I see if the markets still longer term bearish..
On the Dow... it MAY rally back to the 16700 level and make another longer term head and shoulder formation...and then have another large decline.
If it does get there I will then look to cover with some put options as I think we could see a quick decline again this month if we are still in bear mode. October is often a month for such declines. especially between Oct 10th to 20th.
I do like to consider some day trades but also 1 to 4 weeks trades if the market looks like it may take one longer term direction.
Dentist007
dowsp..market is too wild for swing trades
it might calm down a bit
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Dentalfloss
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No breakdown...lol
The Dow and SPX rallied back up almost to its early highs today.
If its going to decline again.. it may at this level...16378 on Dow / 1938 on spx and go down to end of day.
Theres just been a US report at 18.30 and theres another at 20.30 hrs along with a UK one...** showing its importance. * ** ***
18:30 USD ** FOMC Member Stanley Fischer Speaks
20:30 GBP ** CFTC GBP speculative net positions 1.3K
20:30 USD ** CFTC Copper speculative net positions -13.3K
20:30 USD CFTC Gold speculative net positions 61.1K
20:30 USD CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions -240.0K
20:30 USD CFTC Silver speculative net positions 24.9K
20:30 CAD CFTC CAD speculative net positions
I think its make or break..on the earlier levels today when the NFR report came out at 13.30 hrs
it will be very interesting it it continues higher
If its going to decline again.. it may at this level...16378 on Dow / 1938 on spx and go down to end of day.
Theres just been a US report at 18.30 and theres another at 20.30 hrs along with a UK one...** showing its importance. * ** ***
18:30 USD ** FOMC Member Stanley Fischer Speaks
20:30 GBP ** CFTC GBP speculative net positions 1.3K
20:30 USD ** CFTC Copper speculative net positions -13.3K
20:30 USD CFTC Gold speculative net positions 61.1K
20:30 USD CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions -240.0K
20:30 USD CFTC Silver speculative net positions 24.9K
20:30 CAD CFTC CAD speculative net positions
I think its make or break..on the earlier levels today when the NFR report came out at 13.30 hrs
it will be very interesting it it continues higher
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Dentalfloss
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YesThe Dow and SPX rallied back up almost to its early highs today.
If its going to decline again.. it may at this level...16378 on Dow / 1938 on spx and go down to end of day.
Theres just been a US report at 18.30 and theres another at 20.30 hrs along with a UK one...** showing its importance. * ** ***
18:30 USD ** FOMC Member Stanley Fischer Speaks
20:30 GBP ** CFTC GBP speculative net positions 1.3K
20:30 USD ** CFTC Copper speculative net positions -13.3K
20:30 USD CFTC Gold speculative net positions 61.1K
20:30 USD CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions -240.0K
20:30 USD CFTC Silver speculative net positions 24.9K
20:30 CAD CFTC CAD speculative net positions
I think its make or break..on the earlier levels today when the NFR report came out at 13.30 hrs
it will be very interesting it it continues higher
Would you want to hold longs over the weekend
Bad bro could delay rate lift off
Bad bro
Its a tough call..
On the Dow
I had a timing cycle in on Sept 25th that came in as a high ..in around 16475
the another one on Sept 29th that came in as a low
It will probably not break thru the 25th Sept high...or may just break it between the close on the cash mkt and the early Sunday open.
but Other cycles that I am using suggested that the market would not meet any other cycles maybe to the 10/12 Oct..maybe suggesting the market may maintain its rally to then.
I need to take positions two ways.. I have two spread bet accounts..
I did have this weekend as a possible another timing cycle date from another shorter term cycle set that I use..so it may reverse into next week.
But then even if it does reverse a day or so...it may still maintain its rally.
There have been a few occasions on certain cycles where the market just kept in one direction breaking many expected resistance levels...
sometimes they seem to work in respect of getting too strong a move than one expects. and one sometimes needs to hold some positions if say trading call or put options. Then try and scalp on futures in between or maybe use shorter term weekly or daily options.
or have a system like yours that works well and try to enter the market from say next week if one has other the right signals or reasons they believe is worth taking a position.
its very hard to keep trades on over the weekend when there has been a large move into that time frame.
As we know all so often, we see a pull back.. that may occur between say the Sunday open and the cash market open at 14.30 uk (9.30 EST)..
The out of hours moves when they occur make it hard to try to get the turning points right at times.
Yes
Would you want to hold longs over the weekend
Bad bro could delay rate lift off
Bad bro
On the Dow
I had a timing cycle in on Sept 25th that came in as a high ..in around 16475
the another one on Sept 29th that came in as a low
It will probably not break thru the 25th Sept high...or may just break it between the close on the cash mkt and the early Sunday open.
but Other cycles that I am using suggested that the market would not meet any other cycles maybe to the 10/12 Oct..maybe suggesting the market may maintain its rally to then.
I need to take positions two ways.. I have two spread bet accounts..
I did have this weekend as a possible another timing cycle date from another shorter term cycle set that I use..so it may reverse into next week.
But then even if it does reverse a day or so...it may still maintain its rally.
There have been a few occasions on certain cycles where the market just kept in one direction breaking many expected resistance levels...
sometimes they seem to work in respect of getting too strong a move than one expects. and one sometimes needs to hold some positions if say trading call or put options. Then try and scalp on futures in between or maybe use shorter term weekly or daily options.
or have a system like yours that works well and try to enter the market from say next week if one has other the right signals or reasons they believe is worth taking a position.
its very hard to keep trades on over the weekend when there has been a large move into that time frame.
As we know all so often, we see a pull back.. that may occur between say the Sunday open and the cash market open at 14.30 uk (9.30 EST)..
The out of hours moves when they occur make it hard to try to get the turning points right at times.
Yes
Would you want to hold longs over the weekend
Bad bro could delay rate lift off
Bad bro
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Dentalfloss
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dowsp
these inputs seem to give the right feel of the price action on Dow
these inputs seem to give the right feel of the price action on Dow
Dentalfloss
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3 box vertical count has an active target of 17200 area..more like 17100 ish
how does that line up with your cycles
it will be a bumpy ride..imho
how does that line up with your cycles
it will be a bumpy ride..imho
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Dentalfloss
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version 4
says build 0070
Hi Dentist,
Thank you for posting your chart/s on the Dow.
At the moment I am not very familiar with them or the system / analysis that you use.
Can I ask did you post some explanations earlier on this thread at some time. that may offer some explanations as to how you use it in your analysis. or how viewers on this thread may use the charts in their trading if they use it when following you.
or could you offer a brief description.
I once recall looking at Point and Figure charts... But not in a way to consider using it as part of my own analysis.
With it now being 980 pages it may take some finding to try to browse thru unless it can be found using a search box facility.
I can see if I look closely that you had WS 30 in one of the boxes (Code ) above the chart .I take it that is Wall Street 30 rather than being written as Dow Jones or DJIA.
On the 2nd WS 30 chart you posted you show a target area of 17100/17200.
Seeing that the Dow broke above the high made on Sept 25th... It may suggest that one of the set of cycles that I was using may see the market maintain its rally..
But I also have some shorter term ones that I use that do often turn the market.. and one of those comes in this weekend..
So I am looking at two possible scenerios at the moment.
Longer term over the next week to 10 days...If my longer term cycles are correct.. especially now we broke the high on the 25th Sept.. They suggest a continued rally into the 10th/12th October.
With the shorter term cycle.. IF it reacts... It could reverse the Market back down from the Sunday evening open or sometime thru Early Monday into the 14.30 pm cash market open.
Then it may still continue down further if it has declined.
My problem then will be trying to determine the next possible buy point...
Price wise initially..Into the Sunday open... Its very hard to say if it will continue up or start down from the open...as I don't have cycles that give accuracy in out of cash market hours.
I am not the type of trader to work out several options in price where a market may react in between other price levels that I work out that I believe to be the more important price levels that my main price analysis indicates...
But often I do have various levels in mind in between that I may consider when hit or with other analsysis that may suggest Support / Resistance levels to be considered.
I did have initially a level of 16700 in mind...so if it does continue up... that could be a target.
Then on a chart formation basis... The High since the Aug 24th Low...That was made on 17th Sept at 16935...That if I recall hit a trend line from the July and lower Aug Swing highs.
If the market does hit 16700... The Chart formation would then look like a head and shoulder pattern. But I may expect such a formation to also have better symetry in its appearance that may suggest a later time frame to expect it to form rather than say Monday...
although if it does hit there Monday... its not to say we wont see it sell and then form another top in the next week to 10 days.
I would only consider higher levels when 16700 or abouts is taken out.
Another scenerio if the market does rally strongly for say 5 to 7 trade days..
then I do think 16700 would be take out and we may see the higher levels that you suggest.
I need to try to find time to do some further analsysis and try to confirm some more levels or cycle dates to try and get a specific date.
October has proven so many times to have many a big decline moves.
With the Low made on Aug 24th... that did come in on some of my main methods of price analysis.
so I did think it had a good chance of holding..
Thats not to say it cannot go lower.
I think if the market is still bearish longer term.. that we could possibly see the start of another decline more than likely from about the Oct 10/12th period.
but the main problem I have with cycle analysis even if its accurate at finding turning dates..
is that its very hard to to know if a date will be a high or low..so inverses from the expected can
be the case... ie as an eg.. Oct 10th may be another Low rather than a high if it does come in as a turning point.
Since the May to August Highs.. I did expect a decline to either August OR December / early 2016.
Trouble is IF the AUG Low is in... We may now be on a start of a major continued rally.
I have other certain dates in mind that MAY reverse the market down again..and all I can do is consider trying to trade with these dates...then if the market make a high say into Oct 10th and then does break down again.. I think if it goes on to break the 29th Sept Low, it would be a strong possibility of declining longer term into at least December. With some other main turns in between.
Thank you for posting your chart/s on the Dow.
At the moment I am not very familiar with them or the system / analysis that you use.
Can I ask did you post some explanations earlier on this thread at some time. that may offer some explanations as to how you use it in your analysis. or how viewers on this thread may use the charts in their trading if they use it when following you.
or could you offer a brief description.
I once recall looking at Point and Figure charts... But not in a way to consider using it as part of my own analysis.
With it now being 980 pages it may take some finding to try to browse thru unless it can be found using a search box facility.
I can see if I look closely that you had WS 30 in one of the boxes (Code ) above the chart .I take it that is Wall Street 30 rather than being written as Dow Jones or DJIA.
On the 2nd WS 30 chart you posted you show a target area of 17100/17200.
Seeing that the Dow broke above the high made on Sept 25th... It may suggest that one of the set of cycles that I was using may see the market maintain its rally..
But I also have some shorter term ones that I use that do often turn the market.. and one of those comes in this weekend..
So I am looking at two possible scenerios at the moment.
Longer term over the next week to 10 days...If my longer term cycles are correct.. especially now we broke the high on the 25th Sept.. They suggest a continued rally into the 10th/12th October.
With the shorter term cycle.. IF it reacts... It could reverse the Market back down from the Sunday evening open or sometime thru Early Monday into the 14.30 pm cash market open.
Then it may still continue down further if it has declined.
My problem then will be trying to determine the next possible buy point...
Price wise initially..Into the Sunday open... Its very hard to say if it will continue up or start down from the open...as I don't have cycles that give accuracy in out of cash market hours.
I am not the type of trader to work out several options in price where a market may react in between other price levels that I work out that I believe to be the more important price levels that my main price analysis indicates...
But often I do have various levels in mind in between that I may consider when hit or with other analsysis that may suggest Support / Resistance levels to be considered.
I did have initially a level of 16700 in mind...so if it does continue up... that could be a target.
Then on a chart formation basis... The High since the Aug 24th Low...That was made on 17th Sept at 16935...That if I recall hit a trend line from the July and lower Aug Swing highs.
If the market does hit 16700... The Chart formation would then look like a head and shoulder pattern. But I may expect such a formation to also have better symetry in its appearance that may suggest a later time frame to expect it to form rather than say Monday...
although if it does hit there Monday... its not to say we wont see it sell and then form another top in the next week to 10 days.
I would only consider higher levels when 16700 or abouts is taken out.
Another scenerio if the market does rally strongly for say 5 to 7 trade days..
then I do think 16700 would be take out and we may see the higher levels that you suggest.
I need to try to find time to do some further analsysis and try to confirm some more levels or cycle dates to try and get a specific date.
October has proven so many times to have many a big decline moves.
With the Low made on Aug 24th... that did come in on some of my main methods of price analysis.
so I did think it had a good chance of holding..
Thats not to say it cannot go lower.
I think if the market is still bearish longer term.. that we could possibly see the start of another decline more than likely from about the Oct 10/12th period.
but the main problem I have with cycle analysis even if its accurate at finding turning dates..
is that its very hard to to know if a date will be a high or low..so inverses from the expected can
be the case... ie as an eg.. Oct 10th may be another Low rather than a high if it does come in as a turning point.
Since the May to August Highs.. I did expect a decline to either August OR December / early 2016.
Trouble is IF the AUG Low is in... We may now be on a start of a major continued rally.
I have other certain dates in mind that MAY reverse the market down again..and all I can do is consider trying to trade with these dates...then if the market make a high say into Oct 10th and then does break down again.. I think if it goes on to break the 29th Sept Low, it would be a strong possibility of declining longer term into at least December. With some other main turns in between.
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Dentalfloss
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Slightly bullish....but a bumpy ride...imho
MichaelJohnFX
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View attachment Economic Calendar October 2015.xls
Econ calendar for the month. Filter where appropriate - couldn't be bothered to do a weekly one
Econ calendar for the month. Filter where appropriate - couldn't be bothered to do a weekly one
MichaelJohnFX
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My pro real time charts not working for some reason.
Observable evidence from the last 3/4 months on PMI release days at the beginning of the month, suggests / probable that monday and tuesday (draghi speaking tues as well) will be pump days.
Areas of interest for me are 9940 area and that 9820 area for a completion wave 4 correction on the 4hr chart. Wave 2 on my wave count was a flat correction...so wave 4 according to theory should be sharper move up. Looks like it, given the observable evidence from past PMI days at this time of the month.
After this...we could make a new (final) low either this week or early next week.
Observable evidence from the last 3/4 months on PMI release days at the beginning of the month, suggests / probable that monday and tuesday (draghi speaking tues as well) will be pump days.
Areas of interest for me are 9940 area and that 9820 area for a completion wave 4 correction on the 4hr chart. Wave 2 on my wave count was a flat correction...so wave 4 according to theory should be sharper move up. Looks like it, given the observable evidence from past PMI days at this time of the month.
After this...we could make a new (final) low either this week or early next week.
Atilla
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SPX - Weekly Chart - Pivot Points
What a week last week was! Down and then up we go. Reflecting back, setup was bullish last week so I feel it was more of a shake out.
We've also seem to have made a LH last Tuesday on daily charts so momentum has changed to being bullish imo.
This week expecting continuation to test 1968 and have another attempt at 2000.
I'm bearish over all and hold the view more pull-back is required. We haven't managed to claim back the long term trend line so still a bears game.
Looking for shorts around and above 2000 if it gets there.
What a week last week was! Down and then up we go. Reflecting back, setup was bullish last week so I feel it was more of a shake out.
We've also seem to have made a LH last Tuesday on daily charts so momentum has changed to being bullish imo.
This week expecting continuation to test 1968 and have another attempt at 2000.
I'm bearish over all and hold the view more pull-back is required. We haven't managed to claim back the long term trend line so still a bears game.
Looking for shorts around and above 2000 if it gets there.
Attachments
Atilla
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DAX - Weekly Charts - Pivot Points
Got DAX totally wrong last week. Was expecting an upward move based on a previous LH and it went lower instead to 9300s before a late Friday rally.
The push to weekly PP @ 9662 looks feeble but considering move last week was bullish, I'm going for the reverse psychie play and state DAX wants to attempt to take out 10000 again.
If these big round numbers which historically are strong levels of S/R - given up so quickly by the bulls then I fear we have another big melt down heading our way.
As with the spx will look for rises, first target @ PP-R1 9738 and big shorting opportunities around 10,000 on the DAX.
Got DAX totally wrong last week. Was expecting an upward move based on a previous LH and it went lower instead to 9300s before a late Friday rally.
The push to weekly PP @ 9662 looks feeble but considering move last week was bullish, I'm going for the reverse psychie play and state DAX wants to attempt to take out 10000 again.
If these big round numbers which historically are strong levels of S/R - given up so quickly by the bulls then I fear we have another big melt down heading our way.
As with the spx will look for rises, first target @ PP-R1 9738 and big shorting opportunities around 10,000 on the DAX.
