FTSE 100 October 2004

[tradesmart]

4450 in a couple of days?

A couple generally means two....so it will be interesting to see if your timescale is met....!?

Also interesting lines projections over such a long time period.....do you have a chart package of your own to make it a little clearer....?

and what is your interpretation of the RSI setup.....to me it has not formed a top yet, thus my comments that the recent highs may be retested.......

Regards

 

[bracke]

Bracke

Think you mean bearish?

General confidence doesn't enter into it; also, only just getting the brain back into gear after nearly trashing it (New hard hat needed so it's a good thing I was wearing it!) . Just not got the right signals (confidence) that this is the start of the expected major downleg - yet. Frankly I expect some serious intra-day swings between now and whenever the market decides what the US election outcome will be (probably well before anyone casts a vote too!). Problem is, looking at the DOW right now and the latest upward reversal in gold - it may already have decided (on Kerry).

Dangerous times

Here's an interesting link on the possible market impact of the US election with reference to what happened in 2000.: http://www.safehaven.com/article-2070.htm

You are correct, I can't tell my bear from my bull.

We await the final result with interest

Regards

bracke

 

[maxpain]

4450 in a couple of days?

A couple generally means two....so it will be interesting to see if your timescale is met....!?

Also interesting lines projections over such a long time period.....do you have a chart package of your own to make it a little clearer....?

and what is your interpretation of the RSI setup.....to me it has not formed a top yet, thus my comments that the recent highs may be retested.......

Regards

Beginning of next weeek a rebound then I believe we go down (if we still are in a bear market) - end Nov could be the right time to go long - JMO
BR Mp

 

[peterpr]

Here's an interesting one:
According to 'The Daily Reckoning' a US President has never been re-elected when the DOW fell in October (haven't checked it out but...). So if Bush is your man and the paradigm holds, then you are looking for 10200 plus (over 3% increase) by the end of the month.

Not sure that adds much to the sum of human knowledge - or trading/forecasting tools. For me it did actually add a little more weight to a feeling that we will see a significant bounce on the US indices soon though - and therefore at least a retest of the ftse 4700 ish highs 'cause I still think Bush will squeak it after a load of disputes and uncertainties post election - AGAIN!!!- deja-vue. The news flow does seem to remain consistently bad for an allegedly gathering recovery though making life ever more problematical for the systemic bulls.

 

[maxpain]

Indu, Nahl, Tran, Sox

back kissing of TLs next couple of days & then some nasty days/weeks

 

[barjon]

well last week's potentially bearish shooting star was confirmed by this week's action - so bearish on the weekly candle chart.

on the daily we finished with two indecisive candles (on slightly higher than average volume). further south and the base of the long white should provide a bit of a support hurdle to overcome and then the swing low the strongest support until that 4300 area is reached.

that said a bounce wouldn't surprise and it will interesting to see how strong it is if it comes.

as usual we'll see what we see and trade that (or you will, I might take a bit of a break and concentrate on my golf handicap)

btw bracke, that 20 day break out system (other thread) gave a buy signal on 1/10 @ 4640 and the stop and reverse is 4530 (for the next six days anyway)

good trading all

jon

 

[LION63]

Hope springs eternal.

It is all well and good for people to look at charts but what about the fundamentals? We are in a long term downtrend (otherwise known as a bear market), it will take more than a few charts pointing upwards and a few stock buyers to turn these markets round. FTSE 5000 I hear, new highs etc...... Do not hold your breathe; I am more likely to see the second coming than that by the end of the year. What is out there to push the markets up by another 350 points?

Apart from the oil sector (rising on the back of soaring crude prices), banks (bid hopes; my granny is about to bid for LLoydsTSB and she died 55 years ago) and mining stocks ( and the are now on the slide), what else is out there?

I think I will add to my positions and place a deposit on that lovely Gulfstream Jet (ha! ha!).

 

[peterpr]

Hope springs eternal.
<Snip> ... what about the fundamentals? <snip> it will take more than a few charts pointing upwards and a few stock buyers to turn these markets round.

Lion63

Not so much 'hope' as Chairman Al's 'irrational exuberance' I think you'll find.

And with due respect, charts don't move markets up or down either. They are simply a visual record of what markets have done, with myriad patterns having relatively well proven forecasting value for the interpreter according to experience and his balls at putting his money where his mouth (interpretive skill) is.

If everyone agreed that they were pointing up, then the market WOULD go up (vertically!) and vice-versa. Thing is for pretty well every pattern there are equally cogent opposing interpretations - and a good thing too or there wouldn't be a market. It's the real pros and market movers you have to watch out for. They'll put any amateur on the wrong side of pretty well every move until bitter experience confirms that everyone with any clout has an agenda and the market can't be bucked no matter what the 'fundamentals' say.

Having said all that - I too can see markets falling off a cliff in the not-to-distant future - but that could be 1-6 months or more away - likely to be plenty of scope for trading both ways in the meantime too.

I expect a lower close on ftse next Friday than last (at the time of writing) but timing is everything.

 

[LION63]

Peterpr,

I am fully aware of the fact that charts do not move markets, what I allude to is the fact that a chart shows a market going up and everyone piles in.

Professional traders, market movers and fund managers as a whole do not make money, the money is made by a minority. The problem with most market participants is that they do not stand back and observe before plunging in (regardless of direction). How many traders do you think are currently setting themselves up for a fall in the FTSE? Very few; are these not the ones referred to as contrarians? Making money is all about risk/reward and it goes without saying that those that shorted the FTSE100 at 4700 last week took on a lot of risk as most traders were busy buying like lemmings.

If we all bought or sold at the same time the markets would not exist.

 

[Dentalfloss]

the 5/15 and 1 hour all came up wit the reversal early on.you just have to watch the us close and it usually carries on to the uk,not rocket science is it

 

[peterpr]

Peterpr,
Professional traders, market movers and fund managers as a whole do not make money, the money is made by a minority.

I beg to differ. By definition, professional traders DO make money or they wouldn't be traders for long - but agreed - they (the REAL pros) are a minority.

By market movers I mean (mainly) sovereign governments - or rather their proxies in the form of institutions that do their bidding (look at the gold price these past 15 years if you want to see a glaring example of a rigged market). By 'real pros' I mean the professional traders as above.

As for fund managers, I didn't include them, but I guess it depends on the type of fund. The standard UT/Insurance/pension fund managers are, by and large, playing safe and simply managing cash flow in and out of buy-and-hold investments whilst drawing a nice salary thank you very much. But hedge funds and other vehicles not generally open to Joe public are a different matter - some do spectacularly well - and they have market moving potential too - Look what George Soros did to the UK pound a while back for example - cost Norman Lamont his job and got BOE knickers in a right old twist for a while. He single-handedly forced a revaluation of the pound and made a bloody fortune for himself and his investors in the process.

 

[LION63]

Money Managers are professional traders and quite a few of them lose money consistently and get paid hefty bonuses as a reward for mediocrity.

 

[pb]

Lion/Peter,
You are both right. Most people are not geared up for a fall of FTSE, at the same time there is ample opportunity to make some money when the price swings up.

A minority of members on this forum are bearish, and we are not the most popular bunch. PeterPR is bearish, so is Fluke. I am extremely bearish.

The important fact is that the majority of traders/investors don't even believe that we are in a bear market. Most believe a new bull market has started since the March 2003 lows.

 

[Hooya]

given that last futures expiry was at 4589 I would be surprised if fall would catch many people out. I would expect that most stops on longs would be just below this mark. A fall would simply stop out most for evens or a small loss. Compared to gains in the last year probably minimal. We are nearly at the end of the trading year.Most of the large institutions will be out of all major positions by mid November. One thing I would highlight is that I think the what poster on this board and otherslike it think is never a good indication. This goes for those that feel the the Boards are good contrarian indicators. Ultimately the number of FTSE traders in these groups of trader are small and their value in the market comparitively is even smaller. imo. Bear market or no bear market we have moved up 42%!!!!!!!!!!! since the March lows...so tno escaping that he bulls were/are right at the moment but as we know things can change quickly.

 

[maxpain]

Sideways maybe?

Will be hard for US to rally on these nmbrs

 

[Hooya]

maxpain..what time frame are you thinking, intraday, intraweek, monthly, yearly?

 

[maxpain]

maxpain..what time frame are you thinking, intraday, intraweek, monthly, yearly?

If I knew that I would be a very wealthy man by now. Have to follow these nmbrs as well as what the FED is doing. Doesn´t look too good there. I´m trading sectors and at the moment I´m going long telecoms - not operators.
http://www.bullandbearwise.com/FOMOOutChart.asp
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/NA...ge/IndicesRealTimeDataPg&l=EN&r=1&b=4&rtig=30
http://finance.lycos.com/qc/livecharts/default.aspx?symbols=INDEX:XTC.X
BR Max

 

[Hooya]

"If I knew that I would be a very wealthy man by now"

know what you mean

 

[bracke]

Fellow Posters & Readers

Not wanting to teach granny or grandad ( must be pc ) to suck eggs but the harsh realities of the market have taught me not to adopt strong opinions on what the market will do.

The market will do what the market will do and it may not be what it should do but it does it just the same.

Of all the tips, sayings etc the best is 'Trade what you see not what you think' If you don't you may get away with it for a time but eventually you will not and it can be very expensive.

If you do not agree with the above, have a strong opinion and trade accordingly at least make sure your stops are in the correct place and do not move them further out if the market moves against you, that can be financial suicide.

Regards

bracke

 

[maxpain]

Fuel for a rally?

Back kissing the TLs?
http://mispk.dresdner-bank.de/pkpor... DTD&realmN=index_detail&domainN=index_detail