FTSE 100 August 2004

[bracke]

Good Morning All

Thank you barjon for the honour of commencing the August thread,Isn't Mully due back soon.

Interesting week ahead, data from US and BOE interest rate decision.

I am currently very wary of trading long. The ever present threat of terrorist action and the chronic situation in Iraq seems to me to hold considerable potential for sudden large fall which could be very painful unless you have a guaranteed stoploss in place.

I fully support the axiom, trade what you see not what you think - I am seeing uncertainty so I will be avoiding long trades untill the situation steadies plus of course there are some gaps lower down the index waiting to be filled......you didn't think I was going to miss the opportunoty of mentioning those did you !


I won't be around much to-day as I have some other work to do

Regards

bracke

 

[RogerM]

I am currently very wary of trading long. The ever present threat of terrorist action and the chronic situation in Iraq seems to me to hold considerable potential for sudden large fall which could be very painful unless you have a guaranteed stoploss in place.

And of course there is still the 7 month diamond top in play. We've had the initial break. Now we seem to be havinga rally to give a "kiss of death" to the underside of the diamond before falling to the initial target of 4106 on the FTSE cash. Credit will of course be given to whatever geo-political events are in the news at the time.

 

[peterpr]

..... Now we seem to be havinga rally to give a "kiss of death" to the underside of the diamond before falling to the initial target of 4106 on the FTSE cash. Credit will of course be given to whatever geo-political events are in the news at the time.

That's another powerful indicator bolstering my view that we are headed lower for the balance of the year. BUT - a problem is looming that casts some doubt - to-wit - Everyman and his dog suddenly seem to be waxing bearish about the prospects for equities - even some of the the mainstream press over the weekend. Being a diehard contrarian, that makes me look hard for reasons to take the opposite view.

Anyone got any?

 

[RogerM]

Everyman and his dog suddenly seem to be waxing bearish about the prospects for equities - even some of the the mainstream press over the weekend. Being a diehard contrarian, that makes me look hard for reasons to take the opposite view.

peterpr - yep, that's bothering me as well!

 

[alliance]

Hi all

Did u all fall into a deeeeeeeep sleep?

For my sins, I took a long on the sept fut @ 4378 earlier this evening.

 

[bracke]

Hello alliance

Nice to have you back.

I thought that I would not post for a few days to see what would happen............nothing !
I appreciate that people may be on holiday but not to get a single post from anyone else is very discouraging. So we continue for our own interest and the occasional interest of others.

What is the target exit for your long ?

I posted a reply to your last post on the July thread, did you see it ?

I am still waiting for the opening gap up on 28/07 from 4325 to close I have a down trade at 4368 open. I took the trade too early on the day, should have watched the ma's more closely, eagerness got the better of me.

Us non-farm payroll figures to-day which will add to the interest along with the oil price.

Regards

bracke

 

[Finirama]

Hello All,

Been away hence no posts.

Long at 370... 3rd trendline bounce (expanding triangle) and 14 day sma support on the day chart...looking of top trendline at 430, but needs support by a US reversal.

If 370 is broken, i will be reversing, going short and looking for closure of gap at 320.

 

[Finirama]

Here is the chart

 

[bracke]

Hello All,

Been away hence no posts.

Long at 370... 3rd trendline bounce (expanding triangle) and 14 day sma support on the day chart...looking of top trendline at 430, but needs support by a US reversal.

If 370 is broken, i will be reversing, going short and looking for closure of gap at 320.

Good Morning Finirama

It appears that Prince alliance has awakened us sleeping beauties from our slumbers.

I take it that your exit is at 4430, Why use 14 day sma as opposed to 10 or 20 ?

I suspect that much will hinge on the non-farm payrolls this afternoon

Regards

bracke

 

[alliance]

Hi Bracke:

What is the target exit for your long ?

Target is 4425. Entered way too early tho Thot about jumpin ship for b/e earlier, but decided to stick with it. Also have a potentially disasterous long on the Dow............ :cheesy:

I posted a reply to your last post on the July thread, did you see it ?

Just read that bracke tnx, will answer re crs later,coz wanna try to get the grass cut b4 US nos out!

Fin:
Tnx 4 chart.....good luck to us both with our longs......sorry bracke

 

[alliance]

It appears that Prince alliance has awakened us sleeping beauties from our slumbers.

Bracke! I'll have u know that I am a PrinCESS, or maybe that should be more of a Cinderella....anyone wanna know my shoe size?

 

[Finirama]

i reckon u r a size 5 1/2???

 

[bracke]

Hi Bracke:



Target is 4425. Entered way too early tho Thot about jumpin ship for b/e earlier, but decided to stick with it. Also have a potentially disasterous long on the Dow............ :cheesy:



Just read that bracke tnx, will answer re crs later,coz wanna try to get the grass cut b4 US nos out!


Fin:
Tnx 4 chart.....good luck to us both with our longs......sorry bracke

The Dangerous Dow. Very Volatile, needs a good strategy to avoid heavy losses.

Suspect that you and many others will have their fingers poised over the keyboards when the US figures are released.

No worry about your longs ( he says through clenched teeth ) after all you have untill mid-September for them to come good

May your grass grow long and your mower cut short

Regards

bracke

 

[bracke]

Bracke! I'll have u know that I am a PrinCESS, or maybe that should be more of a Cinderella....anyone wanna know my shoe size?

Well it takes all sorts and I won't hold that against you
My apologies and embarassment are only exceeded by my lack of trading skills.

Interesting how we form a mental picture of the people we converse with. I shall now have to re-appraise my minds eye view of you. This gets even more interesting because I can do it quite easily for a male but it is more difficult for a female. This is getting deep perhaps a visit to SOCRATES is called for.

Shoe size......are you still wearing glass slippers.

Regards

bracke

 

[alliance]

Well it takes all sorts and I won't hold that against you
My apologies and embarassment are only exceeded by my lack of trading skills.

Interesting how we form a mental picture of the people we converse with. I shall now have to re-appraise my minds eye view of you. This gets even more interesting because I can do it quite easily for a male but it is more difficult for a female. This is getting deep perhaps a visit to SOCRATES is called for.



Regards

bracke

I forgive u bracke...just! After all, we ladies must stick together.... ( lol, revenge is sweet)

btw, If u venture into the soc abyss..............mind ur P's and Q's or the bouncers will have ya

are you still wearing glass slippers

.

Forget the glass slippers bracke,......until the US nos, I am wearing INCONTINENCE pants!

Fin:
All i can say is........I hope ur better @ predicting 2days long than u are @ guessing shoe sizes

ok...coffee break over...back to green stuff

 

[Finirama]

Fin:
All i can say is........I hope ur better @ predicting 2days long than u are @ guessing shoe sizes

Me 2!!

 

[bracke]

I forgive u bracke...just! After all, we ladies must stick together.... ( lol, revenge is sweet)

btw, If u venture into the soc abyss..............mind ur P's and Q's or the bouncers will have ya
.

Forget the glass slippers bracke,......until the US nos, I am wearing INCONTINENCE pants!

Fin:
All i can say is........I hope ur better @ predicting 2days long than u are @ guessing shoe sizes

ok...coffee break over...back to green stuff

I am now in touch with my feminine side so can you remove the stiletto now please.
Soc abyss, me, too scary, but can be amusing.

You had me laughing with the apparel comment. If you need them now I prefer not to think of the consequences of poor US figures.

How do you manage to post your comments in between the quotes ? If I try to do so my post appears as part of the quote.

Regards

bracke

 

[peterpr]

My reading for what it's worth:

We are in a confirmed downtrend from the late April high. 4430'ish was a reveral close to the upper resistance of that trend which also coincides with both the 200 and 50dma's, making it a pretty stiff test for the bulls. The present downleg will probably not meet serious resistance until just below 4300 again and could go much lower - with the normal intra-day (and possible 2-3 day bounces of course. Timeframe for that lot? 2-3 weeks ish.

That's where my money is anyway - Like Bracke I'm short with stops at @4430 and taking a 1-2 week view - may trade a few bounces with partial covering (Unless I'm thrown out completely at 4430 of course) but I'm pretty confident about the overall picture right now (he says).

The US payroll figures may give the DOW/S&P a bit of cheer (and hence our own dear footsie) but they'd have to be off the scale to seriously reverse developing bearish sentiment over there right now - let alone the scary technicals.

 

[bracke]

A couple of charts to illustrate peterpr's post.

Ftse still not able to get back above 200dma. Unless it does the scene does appear to be bearish but as I have learned in the past appearances can be deceptive.

Regards

bracke

 

[peterpr]

What was I saying about US jobs data - May give a filip?

Well, they're out and they are a disaster.

Go short - hang onto your hats and enjoy the ride!!!