MIR call option august 12.50

[FishintheSea]

Hi all, this is my first post so I am a little nervous. I'm new to the options game and I know most people on this site are British, but anyone following US options, please tell me what the chances of Mirant (MIR) being in the money at $12.50 on August 20th are... I bought a handful of contracts at 0.15 and already missed the chance to close them at 0.25... I fear that they might expire worthless... what would you guys do? Cut your losses and try to sell them at 0.15 or see if a I can make some of my comm back by asking 0.20 or 0.25... there are still 3 weeks and this last rally of the underlying nearly breached 12.00 ($1 swing in 6 days) but I'm afraid the next bullish surge will be a little later than the Aug 21 expiry. I'm nearly certain I won't be breakeven or even ITM by expiry, but want a good ask price for now. I just cancelled a .25 limit to think it over.

What are your thoughts?

 

[daveyc]

it would be a total guess but as of now according to my tos options chain, its showing about a 9% chance of expiring in the money. its basically a lottery ticket at this point in time with the stock closing at 11.07 but anything can happen. good luck.