FTSE 100 - Bear or Bull?

[kevin546]

What about the fact we are starting the holiday season - could the volume in markets reduce until Sept.

Kevin

 

[Car Key Boi]

Car Key,

Now that Support/ resistance etc is outdated we all better bin these charting packages . Must be an outdated concept that the charts reflect human behavior & that patterns are established & repeated time & time again over all time periods.

yuo've got me wrong dude, i don't for a second think TA is an outdated concept

i've said time and time again that it's THE most important tool in a trader's tool box

however, it's the "over all time periods" that i have doubts about

for example, (and i haven't looked) how do the Dow (or FTSE)charts for Sept. 1999, 2000, 2001 and 2002 compare?

 

[Steve Clark]

According to this website, www.bloy.co.uk we are going to see new (or equal) highs and then we are on the slippery slope down.

 

[barjon]

Hey, only 13 votes from 200 views - come on you guys and gals cast a vote. Put your mouth where you money is!!

I'm trying to get us an important indicator here (the view of 4000 trained minds)!!

I know some of you say you're not in the forecasting game, but you go where the market says. A bit of a cop out? After all you can't trade the past and when you take a position you must be forecasting the market to go in the direction you want if only for a short time. So what's the market saying to you for next week - go on, force yourself, get off the fence. If the market is silent then how do you feel instinctively- bullish or bearish.

Maybe what happens Monday will help - you've got til Monday night this time.

Good trading

jon

 

[rglenn]

With the FSTE over 4000 the Dax over 3200 and the Dow over 9000 it still looks like a bullish market to me!

 

[mully]

To quote Jesse Livermore-" There is only one side of the market, and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the RIGHT SIDE. (My capitals)

 

[temporarilylight]

Just to keep Barjon happy im gonna keep it simple.......i'll say..................up!?!

tEmP

 

[RogerM]

Having stood in front of the rally twice on the way up, I was always uneasy that there was no market breadth divergence to confirm it. Divergence is now in place on the AIQ Market timing chart (left chart) - an unweighted composite of the all-share components that have reliable volume - between price and 4 breadth indicators. These can sometimes kick in early, but it has rarely been profitable to trade against them. There is also a lower high on the ftse 100 index (right hand chart).

The 4225 high that the Elliott Wave peeps called as a high for this move has not been broken, with the intraday high on the ftse cash being 4218. I'm not necessarily calling for a major plummet, but a 50% retracement down to around 3747would not destroy the bulls case.

Sorry the chart is a bit indistinct - that is down to having to reduce the size to 1000 pixels wide - the original is as clear as a bell!

 

[waqr]

Roger,

Surely the ftse must move below july low to confirm the lower high

waqr

 

[RogerM]

waqr - for sure, that would be an additional confirmation. The most important evidence for me tho is the divergence. This just indicates the likely direction of the next move, but not the extent of it. So please don't use it to justify putting on the mother-of-all-shorts. No indicator, or set of indicators, is infallible, but I have learned the expensive way not to trade against this particular group.

 

[Trader333]

So 78% were Bearsish and yet the markets went up, it is about the same percentage of traders that consistently lose. I wonder if there is a correlation between the two ?


Paul

 

[FTSE Beater]

Hiya T333

It is interesting, but I have to say that predicting a stock market movement 5 days ahead is a gamble. It's a gamble as you can't change your mind have way through - unlike true trading. It could quiet easily have been the other way around

 

[barjon]

Trader 333

Yeah, said at the outset it might prove a contrarian indicator!!!

See Bull Bear (2) later on for next's weeks voting arrangements.

good trading

jon