POLL - Bull or Bear Prediction, politics, and other fun stuff

[billpritjr]

Gentleman, regarding primarily the USA markets

Get out those crystal balls. My observations (I don't claim to be correct, but here they go...) are

FUNDAMENTALS as of Sept 8, 2007

1) Operating in inverted Yield Curve environment
2) Mortgage crisis effects still have not fully hit the economy
3) Oil prices high, Gold Up to new highs since June 2006
4) US Dollar at new 12 year low
5) Nation completely unhappy with its leader

TECHNICALS as of Sept 8, 2007 (using SP 500)

1) Bull market arguably began March 2003
2) In mid-Aug, SP 500 off 11% from its high of 1550 neighborhood in July. Recovered somewhat. 15 to 20% declines off all time peaks are claimed by some to be associated with bearish markets
3) High volume selling mid July to mid Aug. From mid-Aug until present, no real volume has come back to the markets
4) 50 day EMA crossed the 100 day EMA
5) 10 day TRIN is 1.41, 50 day TRIN is 1.20. It is claimed that TRIN of 1.2 or higher is Bearish. Some claim 1.5

My opinion is we are bearish and will be in a full blown bear market in 3-6 Months.

 

[fibonelli]

http://www.maui.net/~mauiben/9708.swf

 

[Hoggums]

Gentleman, regarding primarily the USA markets

Get out those crystal balls. My observations (I don't claim to be correct, but here they go...) are

FUNDAMENTALS as of Sept 8, 2007

1) Operating in inverted Yield Curve environment
2) Mortgage crisis effects still have not fully hit the economy
3) Oil prices high, Gold Up to new highs since June 2006
4) US Dollar at new 12 year low
5) Nation completely unhappy with its leader

TECHNICALS as of Sept 8, 2007 (using SP 500)

1) Bull market arguably began March 2003
2) In mid-Aug, SP 500 off 11% from its high of 1550 neighborhood in July. Recovered somewhat. 15 to 20% declines off all time peaks are claimed by some to be associated with bearish markets
3) High volume selling mid July to mid Aug. From mid-Aug until present, no real volume has come back to the markets
4) 50 day EMA crossed the 100 day EMA
5) 10 day TRIN is 1.41, 50 day TRIN is 1.20. It is claimed that TRIN of 1.2 or higher is Bearish. Some claim 1.5

My opinion is we are bearish and will be in a full blown bear market in 3-6 Months.

Disagree, technically, no long term bullish trend lines have been broken - I think the markets will go nowhere for a while, some up and down volatility but essentially directionless. Eventually the bull market will be resumed before Xmas.

US economy may be weak, but Europe and Asia are strong and there is no fundamental basis for a bear market.

 

[dbphoenix]

TECHNICALS as of Sept 8, 2007 (using SP 500)

1) Bull market arguably began March 2003
2) In mid-Aug, SP 500 off 11% from its high of 1550 neighborhood in July. Recovered somewhat. 15 to 20% declines off all time peaks are claimed by some to be associated with bearish markets
3) High volume selling mid July to mid Aug. From mid-Aug until present, no real volume has come back to the markets
4) 50 day EMA crossed the 100 day EMA
5) 10 day TRIN is 1.41, 50 day TRIN is 1.20. It is claimed that TRIN of 1.2 or higher is Bearish. Some claim 1.5

My opinion is we are bearish and will be in a full blown bear market in 3-6 Months.

Don't be too eager. There's been "high volume selling" but also high volume buying, which is what turned the market around on the 16th.

As for the 50/100, did the same thing a year ago.

Maintain your watch, tho.

Db

 

[billpritjr]

Db

DB long time no talk. what have you been up to?

 

[dbphoenix]

DB long time no talk. what have you been up to?

Fine-tuning