FTSE 100 - Bear or Bull?

[barjon]

Hi all,

I was struck by a SUNSEEKER comment on his DOW thread where he said that his only worry about his bearish outlook was that everyone seemed bearish. He went on to say that the market had a habit of disappointing the majority.

So, are you a bull or a bear for next week so far as the ftse 100 is concerned? Vote now - no sitting on the fence allowed! For this first week you have 'til Monday evening to vote

You never know, we might create our own contrarian indicator.

Good trading

jon

 

[FTSE Beater]

Hi Barjon

I'm going for neither - Sorry if that means sitting on the fence

This is my take on the chart

It looks like the trendline has now gone, and with a tight range on Friday (due to independence day) a break one way or the other could be significant. Having said that 4050 area is very congested

All IMHO

 

[Car Key Boi]

i'm a bear, not coz of what i'm see on a chart

but because the American economy is in the crapper right now... hell even some guys i know who work for the State of California are worried about getting paid next week or even if they're gonna have a job!

it used to be written in stone that if yuo worked for the State of Cali, that was a job for life. Not anymore...

in spite of the numerous Fed interest rate cuts, the US economy has not responded in kind. Greenspan is doing his best to fight deflation, but lets face facts, he's running outta ammo....

so i think the Dow and the SP500 are gonna start heading south, so obviously i think the FTSE will follow....but not as bad

 

[barjon]

ftsebeater,

I agree with your take, but if you really had to go one way or the other.............. go-on jump (or maybe wait 'til Monday night!)

good trading

jon

 

[eminem]

Tis on a bit of a knife edge at the mo, but if I had to pick a side I think it would be down mainly due to some of the facts noted by CKB. Fed lowering interest rates, where next with that line of attack/defence??? Interest rates will end up at zero, what do you do to stimulate an economy at that point? The market has rallied 20% or so (Dow) and in that time how different is the economy from when the Dow was 7500? I haven't seen many compnaies coming out with numbers or comments which suggest increases of 20% in revenues/earnings over the last few months. PE's are still relatively high and don't refelect the current fragile state of the economy IMO.

Although my comments are centred on the US that is the driver for our markets too, the FTSE hasn't got a mind of its own, wherever the Dow goes the FTSE follows.

 

[bonsai]

Oh dear, I hate these questions. They are so simplistic.
er..
ooh er...
er....

Down.
but I'm gonna vote up on the Dow competition.

hit 4050 and then fail ?
new low then up ?
but by next Friday?

 

[barjon]

CKB,eminem

yeah, ok, but we're talking for next week (even some bears think there's a bit of upside to come first). we've one bull so far and there is a contrary argument to say that Bush will do everything to kick start the economy to help re-election. Also financial levers are slow in effect like stopping an oil tanker - Greenspan has lit the blue touch paper and retired to a safe distance to watch the fireworks (maybe!!).

Also in UK only 39 quoted companies issued profit warnings last quarter, only half the first quarter total and the lowest since data has been compiled (1998).

Not making a case for the bulls, just some balance.

good trading

jon

 

[FTSE Beater]

Hi Barjon

Ok, I'll say long based on a small ascending triangle with a tight bar on Friday. I don't like saying one way or another, but sitting on the fence was starting to hurt

Hi CKB and Eminem

I agree with you on what your saying, but these are longer term influences and I can't see them taking effect in the next week - This is not to say you could be correct.

Oops looks like I'm back on the fence again

 

[barjon]

Bonsai,

well you're always saying keep it simple!!

jon

 

[Car Key Boi]

sorry guys, i thought the question was in regard to the next few months or so, not the coming week

therefore yuo can disregard one of the bear votes i'm gonna sit on the fence for this one, although if yuo were to put a gun to my head i would still say DOWN

 

[kevin546]

I am expecting a bounce off the underside of the channel line but everyone will be aware of this level so we maybe kept guessing for a while. Obviously if it gets strength from here and moves back inside the channel this may just have been a tester and we could then see the trend continue.

But I think we will see a further retracement before 3600 is reached to continue the trend, otherwise the markets are in the poo.

But what do I know. LOL

Kevin

 

[kevin546]

opps did not realise you were talking about the week I was thinking longer but would have to favour down at the moment another vote to be knocked off the bears.

 

[eminem]

Barjon/ FTSEBeater

Yeah must admit I was thinking longer term for my post. For next week then, some upside potential but I think it may well be limited - still think there would be less risk in a short.

 

[lockstock]

A hard one to call for the week. Just been looking at July over the last 4 years & it has been a bearish month, with only 2000 escaping in tact.

 

[lockstock]

July 2000

 

[lockstock]

July 2001

 

[lockstock]

July 2002

 

[lockstock]

Now to July 2003.

As the poll asks for this week- inclined to think it could try & test last weeks low.

As for the month looking at the RSI & CCI - at worst it suggests a marking of time before a next rise IMHO . So my best guess is a fairly flat month with a +ive bias. Followed by a rally in August/ September

 

[Car Key Boi]

aren't there Brittard and Eurotard interest rate decisions this coming week?

i think the outcome of those two announcements will have more bearing on where the FTSE heads, rather than what happened in July 2000, 2001, 2002

just my two cents....

 

[lockstock]

Car Key,

Now that Support/ resistance etc is outdated we all better bin these charting packages . Must be an outdated concept that the charts reflect human behavior & that patterns are established & repeated time & time again over all time periods.