FTSE 100 - May

[mully]

Morning all,

Well I think we can call this US non-farm payroll day.

Data to be released at 1.30pm our time.

IMHO hopefully it should give the markets the needed grasp on how well US economy is recoverying and a possible timetable for the expected US rate rises.

As we all know it is the data stupid and not expert opinion that will determine any rate rise.

The continued high price of oil is not helpful for the doves.

re FTSE100 the red trendline is in force, and 1 day SMA is falling. However, US markets rallied late pm after poor morning trade.

D4F suggesting +12 points at open.

Obvious support around 4500 (green line)

IMHO no great trade until US data. Ability to forecast figs has been poor lately. Remember to check any revisions to previous months.

 

[Finirama]

Here is a good link for the non farm payroll

http://mam.econoday.com/reports/US/EN/New_York/employment_situation/year/2004/yearly/05/index.html

 

[RogerM]

Cluster of Fibs around 4532/4533

 

[Hooya]

which is also the pivot and by about 9:40 will probably be where the 1 day ma is as well

 

[oatman]

Good link Fini, I've been looking for another source

 

[mully]

Well, red trendline held the open rally this morning. :arrowd:

And 1 day SMA still pointing down. :arrowd:

Looking for 4500 as next obvious support. (held market on 29/4 and 30/4.) :arrowu: :?:

But really nothing to do until US data at 1.30 :|

 

[mully]

As I have mentioned before, the FTSE100 is dominated by a very few very large international companies. There is an overall defensive (earnings) quality to those companies- pharmaceutials, tobacco and oils. This makes analysis of the index very difficult/confusing/paradoxical (viz other international indices) at times.

A look at my favourite FTSE250 is giving a much weaker picture. This reflects its more cyclical composition- industrials, a few technology stocks etc.

This could be reflecting the view that with rising interest rates expected in the US and signs that the Chinese want to cool their economy, Cyclical stocks are loosing their appeal.

Just look at the following charts:

Technology: SPT, ARM. BHM, LOG

Cyclicals: BAY, CS., ICI

Just an observation while I pass the time of day ahead of the US data release.

 

[bonsai]

250 also contains a lot of building / construction type companies who are sensitive to interest rates.
and they have had a very good run ?

so maybe enough is enough for some time ?

 

[Hooya]

just want to check its not my charts anyone have an intraday gap at 33 from yesterday that failed to fill this morning?

 

[bonsai]

I couldnt be that specific but there is a gap on my charts in that area


edit
deleted others
my screen rolled over to the dax
I didnt notice

 

[Hooya]

edit: just seen your other post LOL

 

[Fluke]

I am looking at the fib grid 4601/4491and if it continues down,the next point of call is 4483. With some support at 4480.

 

[mully]

US non-Farm payrolls

April non-farm payroll =288k higher than highest forecast of 250k

Last month revised to 337K from 308K

and first announced increase in Manufacturing +21k (though March revised upto +9K)

 

[bracke]

So are the non-farm payroll figures good news or bad news?

Well they are good if you want a job but the dow futures appear to impersonating a stone dropped from a high building - they don't like it - so far, still time for reflection.

If no respite for the usa next stop for ftse approx 4380?

Would the panel care to comment?

Regards

bracke

 

[cas01]

I don't think FTSE will go down to 4380, probably 4445 and maybe 4409. Remember FTSE is more defensive than the DJIA or the SPX.

 

[mully]

What is the chart telling you?

 

[Hooya]

you are very good a drawing straight lines.

BTW anyone on cmc might worth noting the levels it went to out of hours last week,

 

[mully]

Taken years and years of practise and Microsoft Paint.

Seriously, I stick to the KISS principle. No distracting fancy indicators
('cause they can confuse just when you need a clear signal)
and I like clear trends even my 4 year old son can spot!

 

[mully]

For all you Fib watchers.

If this retracement is applied to the 24/3/04 run (4291-4602)


then:

50% =4447 call it 4450
62%= 4410

 

[Hooya]

lol Mully.....

btw any F1 fans..you can get streaming lap times for the practice sessions today and tomorrow
http://www.formula1.com/race/livetiming/718.html next session is at 3 I think.


would love to see a wave count