FTSE 100 - May

[mully]

Last week's FTSE performance

Well the bears had it last week with a decline of 1.76% for the FTSE100.

Nearly all the major stocks contributed to the fall with HSBC being the single biggest negative (China/Hong Kong influence with concerns over the Chinese authorities slowing their domestic economy)

Here is the FTSE impact chart showing the top 30 stocks contribution to the -1.76% performance

 

[Fluke]

Mully.
Thanks for that,confirms my thoughts on the FTSE.
I shorted it last week and booked some profits,Im out now and think it will go down next week.
Finspreads have quoted their Tue cash at 4454.
Did you get my last pm dated 21/4?

 

[JeanM]

Where the FTSE opens Tuesday will depend on the US on Monday. The Dow is oversold, could be due for a bounce from here.


Jean

 

[Hooya]

FTSE tracks the spx more than the dow. Hence why the sbs quote is so low comparede to where it was when the dow was in the low 200s on Thursday. Eitherway. probably get two good swings on Tuesday. At the moment we are looking at down until10 am ish then bounce but like JEan the US might bounce tomorrow to leave the FTSE opening flat

 

[bracke]

I don.t know how you would designate the following ( maybe probability theory) but it may be of interest.
I chart the dow and ftse in terms of consecitive up days and consecitive down days of three and above. I will comment on the ftse only

This year - ftse 7 x 3 consecitive up/down days . There have been no occasions when there were more than 3 consecitive days

If a position had been taken opposite to the trend of the 3 day run, after the third day , all the ftse positions would have given a profit with maximum draw down of approx 30 points before profits would be taken.

Points gained based on end of day figures were between 18 and 65. These gains are based on the first end of day close when a gain had been made.

I appreciate that the above is a simplistic method but it may give food for thought.

I note that the ftse has had 3 down days as of last friday 30-4-04 and closed at 4490. The above method suggests that we are due for an up day but with an eye on the usa I am wary that there is further downside to come

Regards

bracke

 

[MGBRoadster]

Bracke

I have my usual up-bet in place for the first day of the month, so I hope you're right

I've reduced my stake considerably, however, as the US is open today

 

[bracke]

MGBRoadster

The dow iscurrently up 70 points if it holds or improves you will hopefully be on to a winner tomorrow. The last 0.5 - 1.0 hour of the usa market can change considerably, I hope it holds for you.

Regards

bracke

 

[mully]

FTSE 100 -May

Well here goes:

First of all a quick review of the global scene.

[see enclosed table]

A disappointing month for global equities with a fall of 2.5%.
Technology (NASDAQ-3.7% and Asia-Pacific-5.1%) was the major faller.

The defensive FTSE100 was a major outperformer (+2.4%). Though the FTSE 250 fell 0.8%.

A major factor behind the FTSE100 out-performance was BP Amoco.

The rise in global bond yields was a major factor in the equity stumble, with US 10 year yields rising 17.5% to yield 4.51%.

Markets appear very nervous about any data that suggests US economic strength.

The more recent concern that the Chinese might cool their own economy (hurting Mining stocks) only added to global equity worries.

Crude Oil also rose 4.5%

So one message is that the FTSE 100 defensive nature is a factor if you anticipate further pressure from rising yields. Also be aware of what the major constituents of the FTSE100 are doing. (in fact you can probably stick to the top 10 candidates).

Looking ahead

The FOMC meeting on Tuesday will probably be focal. Will Greenspan raise US interest rates?
Bank of England rate decision on Thursday.
The (currently) very important US non-farm payroll numbers are due on Friday.

So it looks as if economics will be the determining factor this week for markets

No major FTSE 100 constituents reporting this week. Though a number of interesting AGMs

 

[mully]

US markets had a useful bounce last night. (if you want to be picky NASDAQ didn't have as strong a late afternoon bounce as the SPX and the SOX index actually fell 0.6%)

In theory that should help the FTSE100 rally tomorrow.

However, D4F are quoting 4487/91 which is no change on Friday's close!


Anyway I also enclose the FTSE100 hourly chart .

 

[mully]

That's better D4F is quoting 4509/13 this am or +20points on Thursday close

 

[Finirama]

Nice summary of events Mully

 

[barjon]

mornin' all

back in the fold after a break and a bit non-plussed by new T2W which seems to take a long time
between pages - maybe because I'm still steam driven. Hope you've all been raking it in. 550 looks
a bit crucial if we continue north this week?

 

[Finirama]

Hi Barjon,

Glad you enjoyed your break.

Totally agree with 4,550, though we need to break 100EMA resistance on the 1 hr chart (4,520). Dow was slowing things down yesterday and is coming up against resistance at 10,330. If the Dow break that, then i can see us moving upto to 4,550.

Can u do us a favour and post your latest candle chart, always find them a great help

Some nice technical examples on the 5 min chart.....

- End of the down channel (bullish) marked by the 3 peak positive divergence in RSI
- Retest of the channel break
- RSI support

 

[barjon]

fin - here it is

 

[Finirama]

Cheers,

100ema now been broken... though looks well overbought.

 

[mully]

All eyes left to the high of last Thursday's rally, just north of 4530 as the first obvious resistance.

But it's all ears to Mr Greenspan and his comments around 19.15 to-night on US interest rates. Doubt he will announce a change, but it is the wording that accompanies the announcement and any change in emphasis.

 

[Finirama]

Will the bull flag deliver??.... target of 4,550

 

[barjon]

Interesting target!! I'm looking for the door at the first sign of trouble from here on.

 

[Finirama]

Yeah..me 2.

S&P and Dow are sitting at some resistance points...1,119 and 10,330 respectively.

Will depend on how they open. The Dow has a potential bull flag on the 1 hr with target of 10,390 (whic is also pulback target for 100ema) and next stop resistance point for S&P is 1127.

Saying that there will be negative divergence on the open..... and as Mully said depends on Greespam

 

[Finirama]

Divergence kicking in US...not looking good so far