Just put the children to bed and logged on.
Bonsai,
re your comments on certain FTSE stocks
AZN, VOD, BP and Shell and BT
you have effectively questioned 5 of the top 15 FTSE stocks and 2 of the top 3 stocks.
What is interesting is that 6 out of top 10 FTSE stocks = 70% Mkt cap ( of top 10) have underperformed the FTSE since the March bottom which goes a long way to explain its "difficult" performance of the FTSE 100, unlike the FTSE250.
Which means the bulls have to depend on the Financials again- HSBC, BARC (vague bid rumours can't hurt), RBOS and LLOY.
Bonsai,
re your comments on certain FTSE stocks
AZN, VOD, BP and Shell and BT
you have effectively questioned 5 of the top 15 FTSE stocks and 2 of the top 3 stocks.
What is interesting is that 6 out of top 10 FTSE stocks = 70% Mkt cap ( of top 10) have underperformed the FTSE since the March bottom which goes a long way to explain its "difficult" performance of the FTSE 100, unlike the FTSE250.
Which means the bulls have to depend on the Financials again- HSBC, BARC (vague bid rumours can't hurt), RBOS and LLOY.
One final post to make you all smile/happy.
Decided to go long on Wednesday at 4120.
However, forgot I had arranged a boys lunch in town at 12.45pm which required leaving my post at 11.30. Closed position at a modest loss!!! (as never run a position when not able to monitor it). When I finally struggled back, after the market had closed (I did say it was a boys lunch) saw index trading after hours north of 4160. Never quite had the confidence to go back in.....
Lots of lessons there.... but the lunch was fun and does put trading into perspective, even if the lunch turned out to be far more expensive than I thought at the time.
Decided to go long on Wednesday at 4120.
However, forgot I had arranged a boys lunch in town at 12.45pm which required leaving my post at 11.30. Closed position at a modest loss!!! (as never run a position when not able to monitor it). When I finally struggled back, after the market had closed (I did say it was a boys lunch) saw index trading after hours north of 4160. Never quite had the confidence to go back in.....
Lots of lessons there.... but the lunch was fun and does put trading into perspective, even if the lunch turned out to be far more expensive than I thought at the time.
mully
as you know market's are perverse things.
In a few days we could be talking about azn breaking up and through, Oils recovering etc etc.
And there is always the mining group ?
It may be a wall of worry or a worry about the wall (ohd resistance).
I really cant fancy BT's chances though. Just waiting for a break of its channel.
as you know market's are perverse things.
In a few days we could be talking about azn breaking up and through, Oils recovering etc etc.
And there is always the mining group ?
It may be a wall of worry or a worry about the wall (ohd resistance).
I really cant fancy BT's chances though. Just waiting for a break of its channel.
If you turn over enough stones, you will always find something
to pacify the beating breast ?
from another board
S&P is not my thing these days but.............
-----------------------------------------------------------
QUOTE
Serial correlation of SPX data with its 1980 datas are still amazingly working fine. (95.15%)
We should get a 10% rise in the next days
END QUOTE
<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=343703">
to pacify the beating breast ?
from another board
S&P is not my thing these days but.............
-----------------------------------------------------------
QUOTE
Serial correlation of SPX data with its 1980 datas are still amazingly working fine. (95.15%)
We should get a 10% rise in the next days
END QUOTE
<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=343703">
barjon
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bonsai/mully
maybe those ?s over some of the important ftse shares is a
further sign that we're at something of a crossroads? The 6 I've
got at or near resistance of one sort or another I'd normally be
looking to trade either way - long on a firm break or short on a
fall back - but only in the direction of ftse 15 day sma.
Trouble is the 15sma has only juuuust turned up (ema looks
better but I don't use it!!!) and I'm not sure I'm bold enough for
anything at the moment.
ftse is like a shoal of 100 fish. From afar it looks like a single blob
weaving about - sometimes tight, sometimes looser and more
dispersed - but within it fish are zooming about all over the place.
Mostly, individual fish get swept along with the shoal regardless
of where they really want to go. They might keep having a go to swim
elsewhere but they'll return to the shoal unless they can
persuade enough of their mates to follow them and get the
shoal wheeling round. How the winners and losers looks tells where
the main body of the shoal are swimming.
jon
maybe those ?s over some of the important ftse shares is a
further sign that we're at something of a crossroads? The 6 I've
got at or near resistance of one sort or another I'd normally be
looking to trade either way - long on a firm break or short on a
fall back - but only in the direction of ftse 15 day sma.
Trouble is the 15sma has only juuuust turned up (ema looks
better but I don't use it!!!) and I'm not sure I'm bold enough for
anything at the moment.
ftse is like a shoal of 100 fish. From afar it looks like a single blob
weaving about - sometimes tight, sometimes looser and more
dispersed - but within it fish are zooming about all over the place.
Mostly, individual fish get swept along with the shoal regardless
of where they really want to go. They might keep having a go to swim
elsewhere but they'll return to the shoal unless they can
persuade enough of their mates to follow them and get the
shoal wheeling round. How the winners and losers looks tells where
the main body of the shoal are swimming.
jon
Barjon,
As you know our particular shoal is very unfairly sized. The biggest 5 fish:
BP, HSBC, VOD, GSK and RBOS account for nearly 34% of the total shoal and if you include the next 5 biggest fish:
SHEL, BARC, AZN, HBOS and LLOY this brings the total weighting up to 48%.
So while the majority of the shoal can zoom all over the place the movement of the above carry undue weight.
That was the point of my original and probably outrageous/daring response to the Governor!!!
The FTSE 250, I think, gives a much better feel to the mood of the majority of the shares in the UK market. That is still up nearly 30% so far this year as opposed to a mere 8.6% for the FTSE 100 (which is basically a crude play on Oils, Pharmas and Banks.)
ps: sorry the pun above.
As you know our particular shoal is very unfairly sized. The biggest 5 fish:
BP, HSBC, VOD, GSK and RBOS account for nearly 34% of the total shoal and if you include the next 5 biggest fish:
SHEL, BARC, AZN, HBOS and LLOY this brings the total weighting up to 48%.
So while the majority of the shoal can zoom all over the place the movement of the above carry undue weight.
That was the point of my original and probably outrageous/daring response to the Governor!!!
The FTSE 250, I think, gives a much better feel to the mood of the majority of the shares in the UK market. That is still up nearly 30% so far this year as opposed to a mere 8.6% for the FTSE 100 (which is basically a crude play on Oils, Pharmas and Banks.)
ps: sorry the pun above.
Bonsai, Barjon et all,
Good news at last for the bulls. Bloomberg is currently carrying the following story:
"Energy Stocks May Surpass S&P 500 Index, Former Strategist Goldstein Says
Energy stocks, laggards in this year's U.S. stock-market rally, have become so cheap that they are bound to outperform the Standard & Poor's 500 Index in the next year."
Given the weighting of both BP and Shell in the FTSE 100....
Good news at last for the bulls. Bloomberg is currently carrying the following story:
"Energy Stocks May Surpass S&P 500 Index, Former Strategist Goldstein Says
Energy stocks, laggards in this year's U.S. stock-market rally, have become so cheap that they are bound to outperform the Standard & Poor's 500 Index in the next year."
Given the weighting of both BP and Shell in the FTSE 100....
barjon
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mully
even a big fish gets nervous if it finds itself swimming
along on its own (bonsai might catch it for one thing!!)
anyway as "6 out of the 10 top ftse shares have underperformed
the index since march" then the others including the smaller
minnows must have pulled their collective weight?
not disagreeing (I use top 14 + avz) but I'm not sure it really
matters how the index is made up. it moves, we trade it -
even if all it's telling us is the supply and demand sentiment
(weighted) in relation to that particular group of shares.
as a further thought, if the overall supply and demand sentiment
arises from feelings about future economic progress, then that
progress must be more influenced by the bigger fish, probably
in similar weighting to their ftse weighting - this makes the
imbalance justifiable?
even a big fish gets nervous if it finds itself swimming
along on its own (bonsai might catch it for one thing!!)
anyway as "6 out of the 10 top ftse shares have underperformed
the index since march" then the others including the smaller
minnows must have pulled their collective weight?
not disagreeing (I use top 14 + avz) but I'm not sure it really
matters how the index is made up. it moves, we trade it -
even if all it's telling us is the supply and demand sentiment
(weighted) in relation to that particular group of shares.
as a further thought, if the overall supply and demand sentiment
arises from feelings about future economic progress, then that
progress must be more influenced by the bigger fish, probably
in similar weighting to their ftse weighting - this makes the
imbalance justifiable?
all
I think you know I also follow ft250 very closely and have said
that I dont think FTSE will crack until 250 does.
That may be an interest rate/inflation or capital investment play, I'm not sure.
I'm not really the economist in the family.
Anyway here is a chart of FT250 laid out in its Elliott finery.
Usual provisos apply, but you can see why I think there is more to come.
I think you know I also follow ft250 very closely and have said
that I dont think FTSE will crack until 250 does.
That may be an interest rate/inflation or capital investment play, I'm not sure.
I'm not really the economist in the family.
Anyway here is a chart of FT250 laid out in its Elliott finery.
Usual provisos apply, but you can see why I think there is more to come.
Attachments
hungrybear
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Hi Bonsai,
Took your advice (small bet this morning) and got out easily when it went wrong, so small loss without pain. I'll keep this going as it's easy to follow my system mechanically, then buildup as it proves itself. Thanks.
Took your advice (small bet this morning) and got out easily when it went wrong, so small loss without pain. I'll keep this going as it's easy to follow my system mechanically, then buildup as it proves itself. Thanks.
hungrybear
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Is that the reversal at 10 to 10 or 10 past 10 
Not much fun so far today.
Not much fun so far today.
