FTSE prediction for 2005

[FTSE Beater]

Hi All

Here we go - 2005. Where do you think the FTSE will finish at the end of 2005?
For 2004 17% got the level correct - can we do better this year?

Happy profitable trading for the year ahead

Current FTSE level: 4814.30

 

[FetteredChinos]

4375.24 i think on the 28 december 2005

 

[Roberto]

Slightly surprised to see that at the time of my voting (19 people, including myself) I'm the only person so far who thinks the FTSE will fall 15% or more this year. Not that I trade it anyway, or intend to, but does nobody else envisage that this might be the year that "it's all over for equities"? Scary in a way to be so "out on a limb" ... worries me that I might actually be right! (Hope not).

 

[FetteredChinos]

debt explosion, housing market collapse. sudden death of prime minister..

you know, the usual.

worrying thing, is that the Dow has made a decent attempt thus far at a new-all time high (might still make it?) yet the FTSE is way, way behind.

when the Dow eventually retraces, it will probably pull the FTSE with it.

good job i cashed in my equity ISA in early december.. gone cash...

 

[Roberto]

WHY do you think this might be so ... you usually talk a bit of sense matey

Not this time, because I don't know what I'm talking about! I just think the Dow's way higher than it "ought" to be, given the state of the US economy and who they've just re-elected. And I think the forthcoming plummet of the Dow must pull other indices down with it. And the European economies aren't so clever either, at the moment, are they? What on earth am I doing talking about fundamentals?! I should only be allowed to post on 1-2-3-highs and lows, Ross-hooks and the joys of spread-betting. Take anything else from me with a large chunk of finest rock-salt, a bottle of Worcestshire sauce and assorted other seasoning (not necessarily in that order).

 

[FTSE Beater]

Hi FC

4375.24 i think on the 28 december 2005

I think you might want to check your analysis again. I make it 4375.25

 

[Robertral]

Hi FC

I think you might want to check your analysis again. I make it 4375.25

Without reading all of the other posts I think the FTSE is going down and volatility is going to go up from its lows.........

 

[Gardan]

I'v had a good day to day and feeling optimistic, so i say it's going to the moon. Reserve the right to change this view tomorrow if I step in dog poo!

Six months of research, I'm coming on, arn't I????

May edit this next December if I'm right...he...he

 

[LION63]

69% of those that have voted (at time of writing) believe that the FTSE will end the year in the blue and of these, a full 30% feel that it will outperform 2004. Will one or two of those that have voted kindly enlighten me as to the reasons behind this optimism.

 

[FTSE Beater]

Hi Lion63

I was one of those who went for up a bit. My reasoning was based pruely on the long term FTSE chart as I can only see the FTSE finishing between 5000 and 4600.

However, this is just based on the charts. From an economic point of view, I can see a crash once the general election is out of the way. I feel the government is keeping the market artificially high at the moment, and I can see the housing market, stock market and world economies falling rapidly as the level of debt becomes unmanageable.

 

[gullible]

FTSE Beater,

You are probably right about markets falling rapidly, but do you think that there will be volatilty as well? Or do you fairly flat stock market after the rapid fall?

rgds

gullible

 

[gullible]

sorry, i meant do you see relatively flat stock markets?

 

[FTSE Beater]

Hi Gullible

I would say the levels of volatility will pick up again. I base this on the distinct lack of any volatility since mid 2003 and that when the market compresses (in any time frame) a breakout will generate extra volatility - which is what the NR7 is based on

 

[jklondon]

dont think the government has much influence on the markets directly or in general IMHO. I do agree about the level of personal debt in this UK but it will take a few more interest rate rises for this to really have a significant affect.

 

[LION63]

FTSE Beater,

Thank you for the response.

I asked the question as I felt that most if not all those that had voted based their decision/choice on technicals and charts. As people tend to say; "the charts are the charts."