Free Morning Signals - Market outlook

[gmgfx]

Morning Brief - 12 April 2005

The dollar has remained on the defensive in early Europe on Tuesday, but movement has been limited ahead of the US trade data with the dollar avoiding a decline through the 1.30 level against the Euro. Markets will be very reluctant to extend long dollar positions ahead of the data and this will tend to offer a slight downward bias to the US currency, although trading ranges should be narrow.

. Short EURUSD from 1.3015 if reached target 1.2950, and reverse.

. Short GBPUSD from 1.8960 when reached target 1.8900, and reverse

. Close all open positions before the data release.

 

[gmgfx]

Market Brief - 13 April 2005

During Wednesday, markets will continue to look at the details within the trade report and the Fed’s March minutes. Any comments from Fed officials will also be closely watched given the uncertainties over whether the Fed will increase interest rates at a faster pace. The US retail sales report will also be watched closely. Dollar resistance will be increasingly tough it attempts to strengthen back through the 1.28 level. The level of oil prices will remain important with the yen gaining some support from the drop in prices.

. Buy EURUSD from 1.2915 target 1.3005, stop loss at 1.2870

. Buy GBPUSD from 1.8930 target 1.9005, stop loss at 1.8890

 

[gmgfx]

Morning Brief - 14 April 2005

The dollar has retained a firm tone in Asia, supported by rumours of dollar buying. The main feature has been one of uncertainty with markets puzzled by the dollar’s reaction this week. Given the dollar’s resilience this week, there will be a greater reluctance to sell the currency and the Euro will also be damaged by political fears, but there will still be tough resistance on rallies towards 1.28. Dollar moves above 108.0 are also likely to be met with profit taking on long dollar positions, especially as lower oil prices will offer support o the Japanese currency.

. Buy EURUSD from 1.2865 target 1.2950. stop loss 1.2840
. Buy GBPUSD from 1.8870 target 1.8950. stop loss 1.8850

 

[gmgfx]

Morning Brief - 15 April 2005

Activity has been restrained in Asia with caution ahead of the US data and G7 meetings this weekend. The combination of weak equity markets and falling commodity prices will lead to further position adjustment in high-yield and commodity currencies. The dollar has the potential to test important support around 1.2750, although this could be delayed until next week as there will be profit taking on long US dollar positions ahead of the weekend.

. Buy EURUSD from 1.2785 target 1.2850. stop loss 1.2740

. Buy GBPUSD from 1.8775 target 1.8860. stop loss 1.8745

 

[Tenpro]

Can you give us some stats on what profits/losses these signals produce? As I'm very lazy and can't be bothered to test them before I start trading

 

[gmgfx]

Morning Brief 18 April 2005

The Euro-zone inflation data is unlikely to have a major impact during Monday, with markets concentrating on global political and US economic trends. The heavier than expected calls for greater currency flexibility in Asia, particularly China, will lead to a reluctance to sell the yen in the short term. Wall Street will be an important focus with any further sharp losses likely to increase doubts over growth and undermine the US currency. In this context, markets will continue to monitor any Fed comments very closely over the next 24 hours.

· Sell EUR/US$ from 1.2980 traget 1.2930.
· Sell GBP/US$ from 1.9000 target 1.8920

 

[gmgfx]

Morning Brief - 19 April 2005

Trading was relatively subdued in Asia with investors reluctant to take aggressive positions ahead of the US inflation data. The dollar was unable to strengthen back through the 1.30 level against the Euro or 107.5 against the yen. The Euro was unable to take advantage of dollar doubts due to unease over the German ZEW index later today together with on-going political fears. The yen has also found it difficult to take advantage of dollar vulnerability due to political tensions with China. The Wall Street reaction to the US data will be important later in New York. Overall, the dollar will find it difficult to regain significant strength in the short term.

. Buy EURUSD from 1.3015 target 1.3075. stoploss 1.2980

. Buy GBPUSD from 1.9045 target 1.9100. stoploss 1.9000

 

[gmgfx]

Morning Brief - 20 April 2005

The dollar has held its position against major currencies in Asian trading due to caution ahead if the US CPI report. The dollar held support close to 1.3070 against the Euro and 106.8 against the yen, but has failed to make any significant headway. The US currency is still being undermined by reduced speculation over an aggressive Fed tightening and by doubts over US growth. Narrower yield spreads, if sustained, will tend to weaken the dollar, but potential selling is being kept in check by the poor Euro-zone and Japanese growth outlooks. In this environment, Sterling will aim to attract fresh buying interest if the Bank of England minutes later today point to a near-term interest rate increase.


. Buy EURUSD from 1.3045 target 1.3140. stop loss 1.3000

. Buy GBPUSD from 1.9160 target 1.9250 stop loss 1.9120

 

[gmgfx]

Morning Brief - 21 April 2005

The dollar has been unable to recover any ground in Asia, undermined by fears that US inflation is rising at the same time as growth is slowing. There was also some speculation that the consumer inflation increase would be reversed next month. The main US stock market indices weakened on Wednesday, dropping to a six-month low, and this will also tend to weaken US currency sentiment. While these trends continue the dollar will struggle to secure a significant recovery. The headline Japanese trade surplus was below expectations with a 0.2% annual decline, but the fiscal surplus was still JPY11.35trn. The yen was struggling to make any headway with the Nikkei dropping 3% at midday in Asia. Sterling is still gaining some support from the difficulties in the main three main trading blocs, attempting to push above 1.92 against the dollar.


. Buy EURUSD from 1.3085 target 1.3170. stop loss 1.3045
. Buy GBPUSD from 1.9120 target 1.9200 stop loss 1.9080

 

[gmgfx]

Morning Brief - 22 April 2005

The dollar has traded within narrow ranges against the Euro so far on Friday with the markets cautious after the evidence seen on Thursday conflicted the earlier evidence of a weakening US economy. The strong Philadelphia Fed index is still offering support to the dollar and, although investors are still uncertain over prospects, there is a reduced risk of near-term dollar losses beyond the 1.3140 region. The US currency will still find it difficult to secure strong gains as confidence in the currency will still be restrained at best. The Japanese yen is still gaining support from speculation over a Chinese yuan revaluation after Greenspan’s calls for a Chinese policy change during Thursday. The GDP data today at 08.30 GMT will be important for Sterling.

. Bought EURUSD from 1.3045 target 1.3100. stop loss 1.3015
. Bought GBPUSD from 1.9095 target 1.9200. stop loss 1.9060

 

[gmgfx]

Morning Brief - 25 April 2005

Chinese exchange rate policies will tend to dominate in the short term following weekend comments from Central Bank of China and Safe officials. Although there were suggestions of a move towards a looser yuan policy, officials also denied an early move and this will increase market uncertainty over the situation. The dollar has recovered from lows near 105.25, but is likely to hit selling pressure on significant rallies given the large number of speculative short yen positions. The dollar has managed to rally against the Euro, supported by Euro selling against the yen. There is no significant economic data today and the dollar is likely to hit selling pressure close to the 1.30 level, especially with doubts over US fundamentals likely to continue.

. Buy EURUSD from 1.3020 target 1.3070. stoploss 1.2980

. Buy GBPUSD from 1.9120 target 1.9200. stoploss 1.9080

 

[gmgfx]

Morning Brief - 26 April 2005

The US economic data will start to become more important again with the release of consumer confidence data on Tuesday. Given the concerns over US spending trends the data will be under closer scrutiny than usual. Euro sentiment will remain fragile due to fears over weak economic growth and political stresses ahead of the French EU referendum, but the dollar will struggle to take advantage of Euro vulnerability given doubts over US growth trends. Speculation over a yuan revaluation will remain an important focus over the next 24 hours and there will be a reluctance to sell the yen aggressively due to fears of being caught on the wrong side of a substantial move.

. Maintaining our EURUSD long position from 1.2970 target 1.3070. stoploss 12970

. Maintaining our GBPUSD long position from 1.9120 target 1.9200. stoploss 1.9170

 

[gmgfx]

Morning Brief - 27April 2005

Trading was subdued in Asia with the dollar stuck in narrow ranges, but the US currency strengthened in early Europe on Monday as the market managed to push the dollar down through Euro support at the 1.2950 level. The dollar strengthened to 1.2920 and with trading still subdued, investors will aim to challenge resistance just below the 1.29 level. There are likely to be further uncertainties over the growth outlook and this will unsettle high-yield currencies, especially if there is evidence of a US slowdown later today. The dollar will still fid it tough to make significant gains. The Australian dollar was also weakened slightly by lower than expected consumer inflation data. Sterling has weakened to near 1.90 against the US currency, hampered by general dollar gains, high-yield uncertainties and the weak industrial data yesterday.


. sell EURUSD from 1.2915 target 1.2850. stoploss 1.2935
. sell GBPUSD from 1.9015 target 1.8930. stoploss 1.9035

 

[gmgfx]

Morning Brief - 28 April 2005

The US first-quarter GDP report will be important on Thursday, especially after the weak durable goods data on Wednesday. Another weak figure would increase concerns over the US growth outlook and would expose the US currency to selling pressure. The dollar, however will continue to gain support from the weak Euro-zone outlook and will take some comfort from the resilience demonstrated on Wednesday. The US inflation data will also be significant as any significant move higher will increase the pressure for a faster pace of Fed monetary tightening. There is also likely to be further speculation that the term measured will be removed at the FOMC meeting next week.

. Short EURUSD from 1.2932 target 1.2850 stoploss 1.2955
. Short GBPUSD from 1.9050 target 1.8970 stoploss 1.9085

 

[gmgfx]

Morning Brief - 29 April 2005

There is a stream of US data on Friday which individually could struggle normally to have a major impression. The combination of data will, however, be important for growth and inflation expectations with particular attention on the inflation data within the personal spending data. There is likely to be further two-way trading close to current levels around 1.29 with divisions over longer-term dollar trends and tensions ahead of the Fed decision next week, although the dollar will aim to maintain a slightly more positive technical outlook. There will also be speculation over a removal of the word measured from the Fed statement. There will be a reluctance to sell the yen ahead of the weekend given the small possibility of a move to revalue the Chinese yuan.

.Buy EURUSD from 1.2945 target 1.3010. stoploss 1.2920
.Buy GBPUSD from 1.9140 target 1.9200. stoploss 1.9120

 

[gmgfx]

Morning Breif - 2 May 2005

The yen has corrected weaker against the dollar due to no announcement of a Chinese yuan revaluation and reports of a North Korean missile test. The dollar was struggling to take advantage and there will still be speculation over a Chinese move during the week ahead with Chinese markets on holiday. The dollar has retained a firm tone against the Euro and a weak Euro-zone PMI index would continue to unsettle the Euro, but movement has remained limited and trading is likely to remain subdued in the short term.

. Buy EURUSD from 1.2855 target 1.2920. stoploss 1.2820.
. Buy GBPUSD from 1.9030 target 1.9100. stoploss 1.9000.

 

[gmgfx]

Morning Brief - 3 April 2005

Trading has remained subdued in Asia with volumes dampened by the Japanese market holiday and caution ahead of the Fed decision. There will be a reluctance to sell the dollar ahead of the FOMC decision which should offer near-term dollar support with a slow advance towards 1.2810 realistic. The yen has weakened slightly as yuan revaluation fades, but the dollar is still likely to hit selling pressure on rallies towards 105.5 against the yen. Political and economic uncertainties could expose Sterling to limited downward pressure, but heavy selling appears unlikely.

. Bought GBPUSD from 1.8935 target 1.9020. stoploss 1.8910.
. Maintain our long EURUSD position from 1.2855 target 1.2920. stoploss 1.2820

 

[gmgfx]

Morning Brief - 4 April 2005

The dollar weakened in Asia with a further consideration of the softer than expected Fed statement on interest rates. The dollar weakened to 1.2955 against the Euro and also weakened to below the 105.0 level against the yen. The US currency was also damaged by a statement from the Indian central bank that suggested a diversification of reserves into the Euro from the dollar and this revived longer-term fears over the US currency. The dollar will hit further tough resistance close to the 1.28 level with important support levels close to 1.30. Chinese yuan revaluation speculation will continue and this will also lessen the potential for dollar rallies against the yen. Sterling has pushed back to 1.90 on general dollar weakness, but independent buying interest will be limited.

.Buy EURUSD from 1.2937 target 1.3010. stoploss 1.2900
.Buy GBPUSD from 1.8983 target 1.9080. stoploss 1.8950

 

[gmgfx]

Morning Brief - 5 May 2005

The dollar has held within narrow ranges, but has had a slightly weaker bias in Asia. The dollar is still being undermined by the Fed’s Tuesday statement and there has also been some downgrading of expectations over the important Friday payroll data which will limit the potential for dollar rallies. The yen has regained ground despite the Chinese Finance Minister’s comments that market pressure would make a policy change difficult. The Japanese currency will see further buying interest on any retreat back towards 105.0. Sterling has edged higher with greater confidence over a convincing government victory in today’s election and a further small advance is realistic, but a poor CIPS figure this morning would reinforce concerns over domestic economic trends.

We're neutral for now

 

[gmgfx]

Morning Brief - 6 May 2005

The US payroll report will inevitably dominate the markets on Friday, especially as the data will have important impact on interest rate expectations. The US currency will be vulnerable if the employment figure falls short of expectations. The dollar reaction will also be important if the payroll figure is stronger than expected and a very robust figure will be needed to revive expectations of a more aggressive Fed policy on interest rates. Sterling will be slightly vulnerable if the government secures only a narrow majority in the general elections. Yuan speculation will remain extremely important and there will be a great reluctance to hold short yen positions ahead of the weekend which should offer support to the yen.


Bought GBPUSD from 1.8979 target 1.9050. stoploss 1.8950