Forex Outlook


Well-known member
I get this daily - thought you may like to view. - Z

Dear Readers,

As I write to you at 9.30 pm on Sunday, 14 Dec, we probably have a CATALYST for a correction of the Dollar downtrend. The reported capture of Saddam Hussein could well give the market an excuse to take profit on long held Short-Dollar positions.

Here are some thoughts over the weekend

1.25-1.26 could be a possible top for a 300-400 point corrective fall IF we saw a Day Close above 1.2320. As that has not happened, even 1.23 could turn out to be a top, triggering a fall 300-400 point drop. The crucial Support to look out for would be 1.2235-1.2195

Essentially bearish, but for the Japanese intervention. However, if the market can rise through the 108.50-90 Resistance zone (and now it has a catalyst), we may see 110-111, maybe even 112 again. Break of 112 would be required for 115 etc.

The Cross is crucial to both its constituents. It has closed well above the 200-day Moving Average (currently at 131.77), which is potentially very bullish and we could be looking at 135 in the weeks ahead. How this will effect its constituents is still to be seen - will EURUSD rise more than USD-JPY or will it be the other way round?

Expect 0.75 to provide a TOP for the the Aussie. A 400-500 point correction towards 0.70 is a decent possibility. Longs can be planned again in the 0.7000-0.6950 region when the market gets there.

We would not want to take fresh Long Aussie positions at these levels.

But, it might be interesting to see how the market interprets the Saddam Hussein capture. Will it take that as an excuse to buy more Aussie and Pound (maybe at the expense of the Euro?)

Expect an upmove into the 10,400-600 region, followed by a period of sideways consolidation. The Dow could later surprise on the upside in the long term (6-12 months) and break the previous high.

Happy Trading!

K****ij Consultancy Service


Don't you just love censorship :)

(I know it's really just to keep things in good taste, but it can have funny side effects like this.)
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