Free Morning Signals - Market outlook

[gmgfx]

Early update 15-03-05

There will be initial caution ahead of important US data later on Tuesday. The dollar will look to draw some further support from yield factors with bond yields rising, but confidence will inevitably be fragile, particularly with the persistent underlying current account fears. Any dollar respite is liable to prove temporary. The markets will be looking ahead to the UK budget and employment data on Wednesday which will curb near-term Sterling interest.

· long EUR/US$ from1.3350 target 1.3425.
· Buy AUD/US$ at 0.7860 target 0.7910.
· Maintain short EUR/JPY positions from 140.50 target 139.4.
· Sell US$/JPY at 104.80 or keep existing short positions target 103.85
. Buy EUR/CHF on dips to 1.5480 target 1.5520

 

[gmgfx]

Early market briefing 16-03-05

Early market briefing 16-03-05

Following the US capital inflows data on Tuesday markets will be looking at the current account data on Wednesday and this will ensure a further focus on the US financing burden. The other US data should not have a major impact. Markets will be looking at the UK budget, although the currency market should be limited. Overall, the dollar is likely to hit tough resistance on rallies to the 1.3275 region and is also likely to hit selling pressure close to the 105.0 level against the yen.

· Maintain short EUR/US$ from 1.3330 target 1.3275 then reverse for 1.3330.
· Buy AUD/US$ on dips to 0.7870 target 0.7910.
· Look to sell US$/JPY on rallies to 104.65 target 104.25.
· Buy EUR/CHF on dips to 1.5480 target 1.5520 possibly 1.5550.
· Buy GBP/US$ at 1.9115 target 1.9165.

 

[gmgfx]

Early briefing 17-03-05

Early briefing 17-03-05

The markets will continue to digest the current account data on Thursday and there will be further unease over the implications of the deficit figures. The overall balance of payments position will certainly maintain underlying dollar vulnerability. The US data on Thursday should not have a major impact, but oil and commodity price developments will remain important. Any comments from European officials will also be closely watched after rumours of an ECB rate increase by September.

· buy EUR/US$ at 1.3395 target 1.3460.
· Maintain long US$/JPY positions from 103.9 or buy on dips to 103.9 target 104.35.
· Also look to sell US$/JPY on rallies to 104.65 target 103.95
· Stay long EUR/CHF from 1.5470 target 1.5520.
· Avoid buying AUD/US$ above 0.7950.
. Sell GBP/US$ at 1.9285 target 1.9235

 

[gmgfx]

Early morning briefing, 18 Mar 2005

After the bruising current account and capital inflows data this week, the markets will be looking for further consolidation on Friday and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index should not have a major impact. There will also be the potential for a covering of short dollar positions, but the US currency will find it difficult to strengthen far. Developments in emerging-market and commodity currencies, together with the bond and oil markets will remain important in the short term.

· Look to buy EUR/US$ from 1.3355 target 1.3425.
· Sell US$/JPY from 104.80 target 104.25.
· Stay long EUR/CHF from 1.5480 target 1.5505.
· Avoid buying AUD/US$ above 0.7950.
· Buy GBP/US$ on dips to 1.9185.

 

[gmgfx]

Market Briefing Monday- 21-03-05

Market Briefing Monday- 21-03-05

There is no significant economic data on Monday and market attention will, therefore, be dominated by speculation over the Fed’s interest rate decision on Tuesday. In particular, markets will debate whether the Fed will drop the term "measured" from the post-decision statement. The level of oil and commodity prices will also be important for markets over the next 24 hours with the potential for volatility as positions are adjusted. Any agreement on EU budget rules at the European meeting is unlikely to have a major impact on the Euro.

· Buy EUR/US$ from 1.3255.
· Sell US$/JPY from 105 target 104.45
· Take profits on long EUR/CHF positions at 1.5505. Reinstate on dips to 1.5485 target 1.5540.
· Take profits on long GBP/US$ positions at 1.9225, look to reinstate on dips to 1.9130.

 

[gmgfx]

Early market briefing 22-03-05

Early market briefing 22-03-05

The next 24 hours will be dominated by the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the statement, although the producer price inflation report will also be important for inflation expectations. The Wall Street performance will still need to be monitored as weakness would certainly take the edge from dollar gains.

Chinese currency policy will be an important focus as the Japanese markets return following the Monday holiday.

· Stay neutral on EUR/US$ for now. Buy at 1.3150 target 1.3185
· Maintain short US$/JPY positions target 104.65.
· Buy EUR/CHF on dips to 1.5480 target 1.5520.
. Stay long GBP/US$ target 1.9205 or buy GBP/US$ at 1.8950 target 1.8980.
. Sell EUR/JPY on rallies to 138.8 target 138.2

 

[gmgfx]

Market outlook 23-03-05

Further discussion of the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be the dominate focus initially with further speculation that inflation concerns will force the Fed to adopt a faster pace of rate increases. The US financial-market performance will, however, remain important and there will be unease over Wall Street. The US inflation report will also be important on Wednesday. The German and Euro-zone data should not have a major impact, but the UK current account data could have important medium-term implications for Sterling.

· Stay neutral for now on EUR/US buy on dips to 1.3055 target 1.3100

. Maintain short US$/JPY positions or sell at 105.6 target 104.65.

. Sell EUR/JPY on rallies to 138.5 target 137.8

 

[gmgfx]

Market briefing 24-03-05

There will be further background concerns over the US inflation outlook, especially after the higher than the higher than expected US consumer price data. The US data on Thursday should not have a major impact on the currency markets. There will be pressure to close positions ahead of the long weekend and, although trading conditions are likely to be significantly calmer during Thursday, there will still be the threat of volatility, especially in high-yield currencies. Markets will also be looking at the extent of Structural Euro buying below the 1.30 level.

· Stay long EUR/US$ or Buy at 1.2970 target 1.3035.
· Stay short US$/JPY or sell at 106.30 target 105.75.
. Stay short or sell US$/CAD at 1.2190 target 1.2115.
. Buy AUD/US$ at 0.7700 target 0.7750.

 

[gmgfx]

Markets Holiday. See you on Monday.

 

[gmgfx]

Markets holiday. See you on Monday.

 

[gmgfx]

Markets Holiday. See you on Monday.

 

[spunkyblonde]

Whats Todays Hot Stock.?

HI this is a great market

 

[gmgfx]

Markets Holidays. We'll proceed tomorrow.

 

[spunkyblonde]

hi gmgfx.com ..thanks 4 that info re;; holiday markets

 

[gmgfx]

Markets holiday ends in Europe. We shall resume very soon.

 

[gmgfx]

Markets Morning Brief - 30 March 2005

Expectations of a faster pace of US interest rate increases and optimism over forthcoming data will continue to offer near-term dollar support. The US currency is, however, still overbought after the strong gains seen over the past week, which will maintain the risk of a further correction. There is also the potential for structural Euro buying below 1.30 which will be a very important medium-term factor and maintains the risk of renewed dollar losses. For now, the dollar will be vulnerable to a correction back to 1.2980, but there is likely to be good dollar support here ahead of the US data later this week. The US currency is still likely to hit tough resistance below the 1.2860 region with consolidation the most likely outcome ahead of the US data, although volatility within ranges is liable to be high.


· Look to sell EUR/US$ from 1.2980 target 1.2930.
· Sell GBP/US$ from 1.8817 target 1.8750.
· short US$/JPY from 107.50 Close at 106.75

 

[spunkyblonde]

thanks gmgfx 4 that info ... is your web site a subscrition type deal or can i get some daily info there 4 free..??..cheers regards sally

 

[gmgfx]

thanks gmgfx 4 that info ... is your web site a subscrition type deal or can i get some daily info there 4 free..??..cheers regards sally

Thanks for your comments. We do not like to spam advertisment about our services here. However you may visit our website and get all answers you want. Anyway, all our services including trade signals are for free.

 

[marketgeeni]

hello

please can anyone tell me the best settings i can use on a 15 minute MACD chart on currencies

thanks

 

[gmgfx]

Morning Brief - 31 March 2005

The international trends are likely to remain dominant for now ahead of the important US employment data on Friday. There will, however, be some expectations of a rise in domestic interest rates next week which should offer some background Australian dollar support. The evidence suggests that the recent spate of high-yield currency selling may have peaked, at least for now, and this will lessen the risk of heavy near-term downward pressure on the Australian dollar. There is, therefore, a reduced risk of a decline in the Australian dollar below the 0.7650 level. Short-term gains towards the 0.7750 level are, however, likely to be met with selling pressure, especially with the high number of long speculative positions.

· Short EUR/US$ from 1.2935 target 1.2865.
· Short GBP/US$ from 1.8800 target 1.8720.
· Short US$/JPY from 107.30 target 106.70.
· Short AUD/US$ from 0.7750 target 0.7680.