T Squared's Market Commentary

[T Squared Trading]

Home On The Range & Banzai…It’s A Boy!

Daily Commentary for September 7th, 2006

Home On The Range & Banzai…It’s A Boy!

Good Wednesday Evening, Thursday Morning,

Range bound trading reared it’s ugly head, yet again, as the Dollar’s early morning gains were paired by both profit takers and Dollar bears. What is indeed Dollar bullish, is that the majors didn’t retreat all the way back to the starting point, as the Dollar did maintain some of its profits. The early morning gains were a result of both positive Non-Farm Productivity data and the ISM number. Look for “non-US” data to be the driving force in the next 8 hours or so, then the US Initial Jobless Claims data takes center stage 12:30 GMT.

In a follow up to our story last evening, Princess Kiko gave birth to a boy by Cesarean section last evening. No doubt, this will thrill the conservatives, as this was the first male heir in over 40 years. Unfortunately this will kill any hope that some had for reform to allow a female to take the throne.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
The .2775 support that we mentioned last night, was darn close to the low print of .2770, as this pair remains range bound. The move was due primarily to the stronger than expected US data and the weaker EuroZone PMI. After the dust had settled, however, this pair retreated back to home base (.2800.) Not much in terms of EuroZone data tomorrow, so this pair will be driven most likely by the US Initial Jobless claims data. .2775-.2900 is the maintained range.

Usd/Jpy
Our strategies appear to be correct in regards to the Dollar’s resilience in this pair. One of our mid-term Yen strategies was able to take profits in the Dollar strength. Similar to our comments this week, let’s break this pair down into 50 pip segments, and see how long it’s able to base, before we’re able to make a judgment on if the Yen weakness will continue. The current segment will be from 116.50-117. Tonight brings a good amount of Japanese economic data: The BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting and Leading Indicator data, so be on your toes, traders!

Usd/Chf
Last night we noted that “.2240-.2400 is our range.” Believe it or not, .2400 was the dead top of the move! If you look at our previous commentary on the Swissie the past 2-3 weeks, we’ve been able to identify tops and bottoms in this pair with tremendous accuracy…pretty weird. Anyhow, enough boasting; look for Swiss GDP tomorrow morning and key on a similar type range if the number comes in-line.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 9/6, 5:00 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Neutral Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Long Bias

Pretty good overall day for our strategies, as they appear to begin regaining some traction as autumn begins. One of our Yen and Euro strategies were able to book nice profits into the Dollar strength. The rest of our strategies don’t seem to see enough to exit their respective profitable positions. Our Euro strategies as a whole have yet to establish a true bias for a second day in a row. As exhibited above, a net Dollar long bias exists. Participation is still rather average at 70%.

Thank you for your continued support, and keep track of our strategy progress at:

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Nice To See This Market Actually Has A Heartbeat

Daily Commentary for September 8th, 2006

Nice To See This Market Actually Has A Heartbeat

Good Thursday Evening, Friday Morning,

Ahhh…the days of the 100+ pip move after the European open of trading, are back…or are they? For those that don’t know what I’m referring to, if you look at charts from the past 3-4 years or so, you’ll see that there were just as many major market moves during the US open as their was during the European open. The past 6-9 months have not contained many of these moves, but let’s hope today’s sustained moves continue.

Our strategies are off to a nice start for the month of September, making up some of the ground they lost in July and August. We are also offering a new British Pound strategy, I Love GBP. Look for it on our website next week. Please enjoy your weekend, and thanks for your continue support.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
This pair has retreated from the “home base” we noted last evening, as we finally saw a substantial 100 pip move during the European session. There was no definitive reason for the movement, as the only data able to drive this pair was the US data, and that came out after the fact. Look for .2700 as near term support.

Usd/Jpy
The Yen was bolstered by comments by a German official stating that one of the topics of the G-7 meeting next week would be the recent Yen weakness across the board. Traders took this as “in other words, we’re going to see what we can do, to strengthen this currency.” Though, this pair is still in the 116-117.50 range, it’s interesting to note that our Yen strategies are not decidedly Yen bearish for the first time in a while. Is this a sign of upcoming Yen strength?
Usd/Chf
The Swiss GDP was a bit weaker than expected, and that’s all that Dollar bulls needed as they propelled this pair well above the mystical .2400 level, before topping out at .2460. This was important in breaking the 3 week range, but the next 24 hours will be the tell-tale sign if this pair has really changed its stripes. If it’s able to stay above, look for a continuation of the Dollar strength. Let’s key on the .2400 level.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 9/7, 5:00 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Long Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Neutral Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Long Bias

Today was a very good day for our strategies, as they were able to capitalize on the defined market moves in both the Swiss and Euro. Our Euro strategies have established a net Dollar long bias, and for the first time in a while, our Yen strategies are not “feeling,” the Buck. Participation is around 60%; our longer term strategies are maintaining positions, and our shorter term scalping strategies are accurately picking their spots.

Thank you for your continued support, and keep track of our strategy progress at:

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Was Last Weeks Dollar Strength Manipulated By Low Volume?

Daily Commentary for September 11th, 2006

Was Last Weeks Dollar Strength Manipulated By Low Volume?

Good Sunday Evening, Monday Morning,

Dollar bulls will say that the Dollar broke out of short term ranges. Dollar bears will say this move occurred due to low volume and a lack of any meaningful US economic data. As we note below in the Euro write-up US Dollar data is supposed to be weak in the next week or two, so let’s see if the Dollar strength continues. The drop in the price of oil to around $66/barrel also supports Dollar bears.

Our thoughts and prayers are with everyone who lost loved ones during the attacks 5 years ago.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
Our Eur/Usd strategies are showing a net long Dollar bias. Participation is relatively low in these strategies, so we’re not really sure what to make of the bias. EuroZone data is supposed to be relatively strong, and US data relatively weak this week, so it will be interesting to see how things play out. Let’s see .2650 as near-term support and .2720 as resistance.

Usd/Jpy
Our Yen strategies decided that the Dollar strength in this pair is not quite over yet, as a net Dollar long bias is exhibited. Look for GDP later this evening to come in stronger than expected. As we noted last week, the 50 pip “segment,” we’re in right now is 116.50-117. We’ll provide key Japanese news events tomorrow evening.

Usd/Chf
The fact that this pair stayed comfortably above the .2400 for the past 3 sessions is a pretty bearish trait for the Franc. The extended move was despite a 3 year lows in Swiss unemployment data. Look for a new resistance in the .2520 area, and .2400 as new support. We’ll note upcoming Swiss economic data tomorrow evening.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 9/11, 8:00 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Long Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Long Bias

Friday’s trading closed out a fairly successful week for our strategies. The Dollar weakness apparently presented opportunities for both our long and shorter term strategies to cash in. They enter the week net Dollar long. Participation, however, is very weak, with only 50% of our strategies with positions.

Thank you for your continued support, and keep track of our strategy progress at:

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Euro Backers Are Lucky Trichet Acted Like Mighty Mouse

Daily Commentary for September 12th, 2006

Euro Backers Are Lucky Trichet Acted Like Mighty Mouse

Good Monday Evening, Tuesday Morning,

The EuroZone data was weak and the Euro chart looked weak. All the ingredients were in place for further Euro weakness, but Trichet came through the door proclaiming “Here I Come To Save The Day!!!” His bullish comments on the EuroZone economy prevented the Euro from decreasing in value, and made Dollar bulls pull out their hair in frustration. The Euro weakness might not be over however, as there was additional less than stellar economic data released early this morning.


Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
We maintain our stance that .2650 is near-term support but see .2760 as the new resistance. The Euro would have been weakened further yesterday if Trichet didn’t help out, as per our comments in the opening paragraph. German Wholesale Price Index data released this morning was positive, but the important number will be German CPI released tomorrow. Our strategy participation is very weak in the Euro.

Usd/Jpy
Our Yen strategies appeared to be correct in their Dollar long bias, as the Yen continues to weaken. The fact that Japanese Consumer Confidence fell over night will not help the Yen in the near term. This pair is approaching 118, and this has acted similar to a stop sign in the past, so a breach of this level will be very bullish for the Dollar. 118 resistance, and 117.25 support.

Usd/Chf
On Sunday evening we noted “look for a new resistance in the .2520 area, and .2400 as new support.” This has proven correct for the time being, and we maintain these levels. No Swiss economic data in the next 24 hours, so look for range bound trading.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 9/12, 3:00 AM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Long Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Long Bias

No change in bias in the last 24-36 hours. Aside from a few shorter term trades, not much in terms of executions. Participation is at a 2 month low, as only 40% of our strategies hold positions. This is a sign of indecision within the market.

Thank you for your continued support, and keep track of our strategy progress at:

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

I Can Finally Afford Gas & Croc Hunter Fans Get Revenge

Daily Commentary for September 13th, 2006

I Can Finally Afford Gas & Croc Hunter Fans Get Revenge

Good Tuesday Evening, Wednesday Morning,

Oil dropped to 6 month lows to around the $63 level in trading today. This coupled with the Greenbacks strength is putting US consumers in a very good mood. Analysts are saying gas in the US could reach as low as $2.00/gallon later this year. In addition weak US data this morning couldn’t keep the Dollar down as it advanced against both the Yen and the Franc.

We touched on the Croc Hunter, Steve Irwin’s untimely death last week. In a related news story, word out of Australia is that conservationists are finding dead Stingrays by the dozen. Apparently bitter mourners are “getting even” by killing the species responsible for Irwin’s death. Very, very odd!

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
As we noted earlier today, German and French CPI should provide a catalyst for the Euro tomorrow morning. The .2650 continues to provide support, but this pair is showing an increasing Euro short bias. A break below the .2600 level would be a fairly bad sign for the Euro. Look for .2720 as a top. Our strategies are still maintaining a Dollar long bias.

Usd/Jpy
118 appears to be a tough nut to crack. This pair has met this area of resistance quite a few times in the past few hours in the aftermath of a very weak Japanese consumer confidence number. A sustained move above 118 would be very bullish for the Dollar in this pair. Trade balance numbers later this evening most likely won’t have a major impact either way. Similar to the Franc, it wouldn’t be advisable to stand in front of this potentially powerful train.

Usd/Chf
Your humble correspondent was correct again in this pair as we called the .2400 support almost exactly. Our resistance of .2520 is severely being tested as this pair is exhibiting a great deal of Dollar strength. To be honest it’s very hard to tell the top of this move, and trying to do so could be financial suicide. Our strategies were able to get in at a good entry point, and are benefiting from the strong move.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 9/13, 9:00 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Long Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Long Bias

Our Swiss and Yen strategies are holding on to nice gains in the Dollar strength today. Our Euro strategies are still holding steady, apparently awaiting a larger drop in concert with the other two pairs. Participation still anemic around 50%, as a majority of our strategies are Euro based.

Thank you for your continued support, and keep track of our strategy progress at:

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Slight Dollar Retreat & Earthquake Near Our Florida Offices?

Daily Commentary for September 14th, 2006

Slight Dollar Retreat & Earthquake Near Our Florida Offices?

Good Wednesday Evening, Thursday Morning,

The Dollar pulled back from its three days gains today, most likely due to a bit of exhaustion and a few outside factors. Usually after a move like we had in both the Franc and Yen, this type of pullback and consolidation is expected before the next direction is chosen. Our strategies maintain a slight Dollar long bias.

You may have heard there was an earthquake about 200 miles off the coast of Florida in the Gulf of Mexico. The ‘quake was rather mild, and no after effects such as Tsunamis, etc. are expected. I guess you’re not safe from earthquakes no matter where you live nowadays!

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
We were correct on the .2720 top last night, as this pair continues to languish in the .2700 region. The CPI data from last night was pretty much a non-event and no major EuroZone data on the horizon in the next 24 hours. This pair most assuredly will be influenced by US based news tomorrow. Our Euro strategies are currently mixed, with a slight Euro short bias. .2670-.2720 is the tight near-term range.

Usd/Jpy
As noted last night, 118 stood firm. BOJ board member Mizuno made some bullish statements on the Japanese economy and raised the possibility of further rate hikes. Pardon my French, but these comments are “bull crap,” to me. The economic data has been terrible, and the consensus is that future data will be even worse. What reason they would have raise rates is beyond me. Or maybe I’m just bitter, because our strategies are net Yen short. Let’s focus on 117.50-118.

Usd/Chf
As we note below our Swiss XL took profits this afternoon. Our resistance level of .2420 was surpassed by about 20 pips, but this pair quickly retreated and is currently below .2400 again. The Swiss National Bank decides on interest rates tomorrow morning. A quarter point is a given so anything less or more would result in some major volatility. Let’s make the .2440 level the resistance and let’s move support up to around .2360.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 9/13, 10:00 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
Slight $ Long Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
Neutral

Our Euro and Yen strategies continue with the net Dollar long bias. Our Swiss strategy was able to take some nice profits this afternoon. Participation is increasing a bit from last night, up to around 60%.

Thank you for your continued support, and keep track of our strategy progress at

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

G-7 Meeting This Weekend & Harry Potter Almost Couldn’t Fly

Daily Commentary for September 15th, 2006

G-7 Meeting This Weekend & Harry Potter Almost Couldn’t Fly

Good Thursday Evening, Friday Morning,

The G-7 Meeting this weekend in Singapore is making a lot of traders a bit nervous, as they are unsure of what currencies will be affected and in which direction. The major concern is over the Yen. Will leaders be making bullish comments on the Japanese economy and the rate of inflation later this year? It’s a tough call, but odds are they will do their best to soften the terrible economic data as of late

Those Harry Potter fans looking anxiously forward to the new book nearly had a heart attack when they heard that author, J.K. Rowling was almost unable to bring the “unsaved” manuscript of her new novel onto a London bound flight out of New York. Thankfully the airport official eventually relented and let her board the plane with the book. 2 questions: Why was top secret info like that being carried around, and why in the world is Rowling flying commercial? Have a great weekend everyone!

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
More sideways trading was apparent in this pair. We nailed the .2670 support call last night, but are a bit off on the resistance as this Euro topped out at .2760 in a brief spurt this afternoon. This pair should be moved by the US CPI Inflation data tomorrow morning. Let’s keep the .2760 support.

Usd/Jpy
The fact that the G7 meeting is occurring in Singapore over the weekend, is making many Yen shorts a bit skittish. The reason for this is they are expecting the Japanese Economy to be a focal point during the meeting, and traders are expecting positive things to be stated. Again this would contradict all the poor Japanese data of late, but as always with this currency, expect the unexpected. 117.50-118 remains the range.

Usd/Chf
This pair reacted positive towards the Franc following the ¼ point rate hike by the SNB this morning, but similar to most of the bogus moves of late, it quickly gave back all gains a few hours later. On the surface this is very bullish for the Dollar. Please drop us a line for further clarification. Support is “iffy” now in the .2450 area, but resistance is still around .2540

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 9/14, 6:00 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
Neutral
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
Neutral

Some of our shorter term Euro strategies were stopped out today in the choppy market environment. Our strategies are sitting on the sidelines for the most part, as participation is at a lowly 30%.

Thank you for your continued support, and keep track of our strategy progress at:

T2

 

[MAmijee232]

Hey Tsquared, your commentary are very informative! Thanks!, keep it up!

 

[T Squared Trading]

Hey Tsquared, your commentary are very informative! Thanks!, keep it up!

Hi Mustansir,

Thank you for the comments...much appreciated. If you'd like to be included on our subscription list, please pm me with your email.

Thanks again,
T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Dollar Strength Is A Welcome Development & Pope Benedict’s Mistake

Daily Commentary for September 18th, 2006

Dollar Strength Is A Welcome Development & Pope Benedict’s Mistake

Good Sunday Evening, Monday Morning,

We hope everyone had a great weekend, and is well rested after a pretty exciting trading day on Friday. For the first time in a while, some of the major currency pairs were able to break out of a seemingly everlasting period of consolidation. Traders believe the strength was due to the fact that many believe that the slowdown in the economy, namely the housing sector, won’t be as harsh as originally thought.

After Pope Benedict XVI finished reciting comments last Tuesday basically saying that the Prophet Muhammad, the founder of Islam, was “evil and inhuman,” he probably wanted to fire his speech writers. The backlash from Muslims prompted the Pope to retract his statements saying that he was merely reciting passages from a Medieval text and those words did not represent his thoughts or beliefs. Have a great week!

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
The Euro has approached levels not seen since late July as we’re currently seeing a low print of .2630. As usual when a pair is in somewhat of a freefall similar to what the Eur/Usd is right now, we’re very hesitant to put out a support, as it usually is like catching falling knives. We like to see some sort of consolidation occur before any suggestions. The Zew report later this week could further hurt the Euro if a weaker than expected number is reported. Our strategies are currently exhibiting a net Euro short bias.

Usd/Jpy
The G7 meeting over the weekend was essentially a non event for the Japanese Yen as basically the only mention was the fact that Japan has eliminated the zero-interest rate policy and the “recovery is now broad based.” Traders most likely look for the economic data to confirm or refute this before sticking their necks out on any Yen longs, as the trend is still Dollar bullish. The 117.50-118 range remains, as Dollar longs are getting frustrated by the inability to crack through 118 for any extended period of time.

Usd/Chf
On Thursday we noted the movement after the SNB decision on interest rates was most likely Dollar bullish, and indeed it turned out that way. Reviewing our notes we accidentally noted that .2450 was the resistance, obviously we misspoke, and meant to say support. Some of our readers emailed us about this for clarification, so we apologize. The reason the Franc was so weak on Friday was that comments made by the Swiss National Bank lend to the notion that a 50 basis point increase later this year is not quite a sure thing as once expected. Let’s use Friday’s high of .2620 as the new resistance, and .2550 as support.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 9/17, 6:00 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Long Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Long Bias

The Dollar strength on Friday was enough to trigger some positions in a majority of our Eur/Usd based strategies. As shown above, our strategies are currently exhibiting a rather decidedly net Dollar long bias, so it will be interesting to see if the Dollar rally continues. Participation has increased quite a bit, as about 70% of our strategies are holding a long or short position.

Thank you for your continued support. f you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Missing You & Too Bad We Don’t Have Any Thai Baht Strategies

Daily Commentary for September 20th, 2006

Missing You & Too Bad We Don’t Have Any Thai Baht Strategies

Good Tuesday Evening, Thursday Morning,

There was a plethora of crummy economic data from the three biggies: US, JPY, & EUR. Apparently the least poor of the three was the US housing data. In a sign of the times, there is little talk of the Fed Rate Decision tomorrow. I have a better chance of growing a second head, than the Fed does of raising rates. Amazingly enough, there are whispers of a possible rate CUT in the winter…that would be nice!

The coup attempt to overthrow the government in Thailand has caused ripples in the value of the Thai Baht (their currency.) The US Dollar has gained considerably against the Baht, as a flight to safety is taking place.

Finally, we wanted to drop a quick note that we missed not expressing our thoughts last night to everyone, as it was the first time in a while we did not write a commentary. Unfortunately, as we mentioned in our emails, we just don’t currently have the time to do a nightly commentary and will be releasing it Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday evenings to our subscribers. Hopefully this will change in the near future as we “beef” up our customer service staff.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
The weak Euro-Zone Zew data, which measures different opinions on the economy by analysts and institutions, brought this pair back down in the .2600’s. This was somewhat disappointing to Euro bulls as this pair reversed nicely to reach high’s of .2730. If this pair consolidates in the .2640-.2680, this could be a VERY weak sign for the Euro. Please contact us for further clarification. Our Euro strategies are showing a slight Dollar long bias

Usd/Jpy
After bottoming out at 117, this pair is back in the range we noted on Sunday, 117.50-118. The movement hasn’t done much to change our Yen strategies overall bias on Dollar long. Weak consumer demand data was the cause of the rebound back to the safe 50 point haven. The chart still appears to be bearish towards the yen, but it better stop consolidating below 118 to continue this sentiment.

Usd/Chf
Our support of .2550 from Sunday evening was off, as this pair has reached lows of .2485. There has been no news as of late to support or damage the Franc. The up and down movement has been caused by it’s counter-currency, the Dollar. After changing their mind quite a few times as of late, our Swiss strategies are showing a net Dollar short bias, for what it’s worth. Let’s use .2460-.2560 as the current range.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 9/19, 8:00 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Long Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Short Bias

The past two sessions haven’t been too kind to our strategies, as the choppiness has caused a few stop outs in both our Euro and Swiss strategies. The Franc’s movement has been the most nonsensical of them all. The schitzophrenic movement of the market apparently has prompted quite a few of our strategies to stay on the sideline to watch as participation is back down around 30%.

Thank you for your continued support, and keep track of our strategy progress at:

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Weak Dollar Approaching Familiar Levels & Chavez Probably Won’t Be Buying Bush A Birt

Daily Commentary for September 22nd, 2006

Weak Dollar Approaching Familiar Levels & Chavez Probably Won’t Be Buying Bush A Birthday Present
Good Thursday Evening, Friday Morning,

The Dollar has taken a bit of a pounding the past 2 days. Today’s decline was due to poor Leading Indicator data and the Philly Fed Report. The Philly Fed Manufacturing report was negative for the first time since 2003. In spite of the current weakness of the Buck, we don’t think it’s time to load up on Dollar short positions…yet. As we describe in our Indicator section below, an overall consolidation needs to take place, as this current move is most likely unsustainable in the near-term.

In the past 48 hours Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has referred to US President Bush as “the devil, and alcoholic, a sick man, and he walks like John Wayne.” He also said in so many words that if the US messed with either Venezuela or Iran, oil prices could rise to over $200/barrel. Can’t we all just get along!!! Have a nice weekend everyone and look for our weekly commentary on Sunday evening.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
Luckily for the Euro bulls, the .2640-.2660 consolidation scenario we discussed in the previous commentary didn’t come to fruition. The current print of this pair is a shade below .2800. To be frank, our strategies are believing in the current strength of the Euro, but I will continue to be skeptical until this pair bases up above .2850 for a significant amount of time. This is needed to build up steam to make a run for .3000 again, much like a coiled spring. We’ve used .2800 as the resistance before, and we’re going to use it again.

Usd/Jpy
On Tuesday evening we warned that this pair better stop consolidating below the 117.50 level, if the Dollar had hopes of continuing the upward movement. Well, this pair not only consolidated, but came out of the consolidation pretty violently, before bottoming out around 116.20. While this chart isn’t looking extremely Yen bullish, a break below 116 would be. Given the sharp 45 degree angle of the move, a consolidation around the current level might be in order. Keep 116.80 as near term resistance.

Usd/Chf
.2460 provided about as much support as a training bra on Dolly Parton. Our support levels the past few days haven’t been as accurate as they’ve been in weeks past. Swiss economic data has not been the driver of the Franc’s increase, but rather the poor US economic data. We’re going to go out on a limb and call the .2390-.2400 the next area of major support. A break below this level would send Franc bulls dancing in the streets of Geneva.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 9/21, 9:00 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Short Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Short Bias

The Dollar weakness has caused a net Dollar short bias with the lone exception being our stubborn Yen strategies, which are still long the Dollar. Participation is around 50% as we enter the weekend with a lack of any significant economic data.

Thank you for your continued support, and keep track of our strategy progress at:

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Economic Data For Week Ahead To Shape Dollar & Is Bin Laden Dead?[/

Daily Commentary for September 25th, 2006

Economic Data For Week Ahead To Shape Dollar & Is Bin Laden Dead?

Good Sunday Evening, Monday Morning,

Unconfirmed reports out of France say that Al Qaeda mastermind Osama Bin Laden died of typhoid in Pakistan in late August. Of course this news was reported as a result of a news leak from a “normally reliable source,” so let’s approach this news with a grain of salt. I always find it amazing that “reliable sources” are usually quite the opposite.

The week ahead brings the following key economic data for the US: Monday: Existing Home Sales, Tuesday: Consumer Confidence, Wednesday: New Home Sales. Traders believe this data will prove to be positive for the Buck, and should bring a halt to the recent Dollar slide. Have a great week everyone, and please contact us with any questions.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
As noted on Thursday evening, our strategies are exhibiting a net Euro long bias, but we are still skeptical until this pair bases above the .2800 level for any significant amount of time. The Euro touched .2820 briefly during Friday’s trading. The German CPI report later this week will be worth taking note of. Please contact us tomorrow for any changes in our Euro biases. .2750-.2820 is the current range.

Usd/Jpy
This pair did indeed consolidate around the 116 area as we suggested it might on Thursday. The Dollar actually strengthened a bit against the Yen and is currently settled around 116.50. Look for Japanese economic data this week including inflation, retail sales, and the labor market. Taking into account that recent Japanese data has been weak, any positive reports should have an enhanced effect on the recent Yen strength. 116-116.50 is the near-term range.

Usd/Chf
Thank heavens our Swiss Franc strategies didn’t follow our .2400 support level call on Friday, as they have a rather nice unrealized profit going on their Dollar short positions. It was surprising to see how quickly the support level was breached. Market action during the first part of this week will be the tell as to whether this Swiss strength is sustainable. Dare we call .2300 as support? Refer to our “falling knives comments,” from previous commentaries.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 9/24, 7:00 PM ET:

We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Short Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Short Bias

Our biases have remained the same since Thursday evening. There was not much in terms of executions during Friday’s trading day. Our strategies enter the week with a slight Dollar short bias. Participation is still around 50%.

Thank you for your continued support. If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Will The Dollar Strength Be Short Lived, Osama Not Dead

Daily Commentary for September 27th, 2006

Will The Dollar Strength Be Short Lived, Osama Not Dead

Good Tuesday Evening, Wednesday Morning,

The Dollar gained on most other currencies today as the Consumer Confidence data was stronger than expected. Whether the momentum can continue into tomorrow’s session is up for debate. Tomorrow brings us Durable Goods and New Home Sales data. The Durable Goods data is supposed to be positive but the housing data is expected to be weak. Unfortunately this disparity in data might lead to consolidation, leaving volatility to a minimum; a bummer for “day-traders.”

Apparently the reliable source that leaked the news Osama Bin Laden was dead, wasn’t so reliable after all. He wasn’t spotted at a Wendy’s in Kansas, but he also hasn’t been found dead. Therefore, it’s believed he’s still alive and well.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
Our skepticism in reference to the Euro strength on Sunday evening, was proven correct, as this pair has weakened significantly since then, reaching lows of around .2660. The reason for the weakness today was due to a low business expectations index. Tomorrow’s EuroZone M3 data will most likely have an effect if negative. Currently, the chart looks Dollar bullish, but there is a good level of support in the .2650 region.

Usd/Jpy
What a difference a day makes, as the Yen was quite strong yesterday, but was quite the opposite today across the board. Against the Dollar, this pair broke out of the 116-116.50 consolidation. The move was pretty dramatic before topping out at 117.20. Our Yen strategies have been net Dollar long, even during last weeks Yen strength, so I guess it comes as no surprise to their computer chip brains. No economic news is due tomorrow, so let’s see if this pair bases above 117 before making a decision. Give it room to breathe, and use 116.75 as support.

Usd/Chf
We broke out of week long rut of missing the support levels in this pair, as we nailed the .2300 level yesterday. It seems like our Swiss based strategies were on the same page as us, booking a nice short profit, then quickly reversing, currently sitting on a nice long profit. The chart is not very convincing on the Dollar long side, so let’s keep an eye on the Leading Indicator Data tomorrow morning. Use .2375 to .2450 as a near term range.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 9/26, 7:00 PM ET:

We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Neutral Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Long Bias

The past 2 trading days have brought nice profits to our Swiss strategies, as they were able to pinpoint the reversal rather nicely. Our Yen strategies have maintained there Dollar long bias, while our Euro strategies have turned neutral. Participation has dropped again to around 40%.

Thank you for your continued support. If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Franc & Yen Trending Nicely & I’m Glad I Don’t Like Candy Too Much

Daily Commentary for September 29th, 2006

Franc & Yen Trending Nicely & I’m Glad I Don’t Like Candy Too Much

Good Thursday Evening, Friday Morning,

We hope everyone had a great week, and are looking forward to a nice weekend. In the past two days, we’ve seen a continuation of some nice moves in the Usd/Chf and Usd/Jpy. Please see our comments below on the possible outlooks for both. Tomorrow’s US Personal Spending data is supposed to be strong but the Chicago PMI is due to be weak. It will be interesting to see which piece of data holds the most weight, in what could be an eventful day in the currency market.

Results from a study out of Norway that examined the affects of sugar on 15-16 year olds, showed that soft drinks and other sugar-filled foods may cause mental problems. I’m not really sure if Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Red Bull, etc. are believing in this study! Have a great weekend everyone!!!

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
Those of you who strictly trade the Euro most likely have “Pound Envy,” after watching the sharp moves in that currency the past 24 hours. Meanwhile the Euro has continued to consolidate against the Dollar, perhaps building momentum for another shot at .3000 or a decided move lower towards .2500. Looking at a weekly chart, one would tend to side with the .2500 scenario for now. German retail sales dominate EuroZone news for tomorrow morning.

Usd/Jpy
Our 116.75 support level was not even tested after our previous report. Instead this pair has had a nice steady increase similar to the Franc in which we detail below. This pair is approaching the steel ceiling as of late…118. I really think this pair has a chance of breaking through the 118 level with a quite violent move. The high from April was around 118.60…will it reach that high is another question. Hopefully for Dollar bulls it stays at this level for a few days….that would be strength!!! Look for Japanese CPI later this evening.

Usd/Chf
On Tuesday evening we noted the chart wasn’t very convincing on a Dollar long side, but as usual our strategies are looking much wiser than us, and have held on to Swiss short position for most of this week. I’m actually starting to like the nice gradual ascent this pair has had. When a chart exhibits a 45 degree angle of ascent or descent it’s usually a good sign for a lasting move. With that said, this market has not been very “trendy,” as of late, so let’s keep an eye on the .2500 as a possible top to this move.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 9/28, 7:00 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Neutral Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Long Bias

Our biases have stayed the exact same since our last report, nearly 48 hours ago. If you look at the price movements of the 3 majors we cover there was really no reason for the strategies to change bias; the Dollar increased in price against the Franc and Yen, and basically treaded water against the Euro. Participation is still rather mild around 60%.

If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

ISM & Non-Farm Payrolls This Week

Daily Commentary for October 2nd, 2006

ISM and Non-Farm Payrolls This Week

Good Sunday Evening, Monday Morning,

We hope everyone had a great weekend. October is finally here which marks the beginning of Major League Baseball playoffs, and crisp Autumn weather. It also appears to be marking the potential for some range breakouts in a few currency pairs. Of course the granddaddy of all the economic data is due on Friday: The US Non-Farm Payrolls. We will analyze this number later in the week. Keep an eye out on US ISM data tomorrow morning, as this number occasionally provides some fireworks to the currency market. Please have a great week and contact us with any and questions you may have.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
German Retail Sales on Friday were actually better than expected, but this was not nearly enough to cause the Euro to gain any strength in this pair. This week EuroZone manufacturing data, and PMI reports dominate on the data front, but more than likely we will see this pair moved around by the US economic data noted above. .2640 is a key support level, as the Euro continues to look bearish against the Buck.

Usd/Jpy
As of writing this, the quarterly Tankan measure of business sentiment has been released and it was mostly positive for the Japanese economy. Unfortunately for Yen bulls, the pair is not behaving the way one would expect after such optimistic data. We are currently 30 pips below the 118.60 high from April, but more importantly this pair is basing very nicely above 118. This is the strongest the Dollar has looked in this pair in a while. Be careful of any Dollar shorts in this pair, as we could possibly see quite a violent move to the upside. Our strategies have been short the Yen for the last week and a half.

Usd/Chf
This pair made a very strong move to .2550 before a retracement to around the .2500 resistance level we pointed out on Friday. It may take strong US ISM data to bring this pair back up to Friday’s highs. Note that there is a large level of resistance in the .2550-.2600 level. Let’s call .2450 as near term support. No Swiss economic data due tomorrow.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 10/1, 9:00 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Neutral Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Long Bias

For a 3rd straight sessions are strategies are maintaining the same Dollar long net bias. The nice move by the Dollar against the Yen and Swiss is making our respective strategies happy, while they’re still trying to get a “feel” for what is going on the Euro. Participation is still around 60%. It seems as if our strategies are just sitting on their profits for now.

If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Announcement & Commentary

We are proud to announce that the Institutional branch of our company, KEG Systems, is displayed in the October/November issue of Trader Monthly via a full-page advertisement. Please check it out and let us know what you think.

Daily Commentary for October 4th, 2006

Oil Low & Dow High, Great Combination For US Consumers

Good Tuesday Evening, Wednesday Morning,

Oil hit a 7 month low today, as a barrel of black gold is worth about $59. Traders expect the price to go even lower in the next few months. This is due to the fact that hurricane season is over, and geopolitical risks appear to be relatively low.

The Dow Jones Industrial average hit an all time high today of 11,758. This is a great sign for investors, as it shows that inflation is not a fear. What I find the most interesting is that the tech-full Nasdaq has barely moved in months. I’m not really sure if this means anything, but it makes you miss the days the Nasdaq was above 5000.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
This pair is currently the trickiest of the 3 that we analyze on a technical basis. Leading up to today, our Euro/Usd based strategies have been neutral in their biases, only to choose a Euro long bias in the past 24 hours. The only chart time frame that lends any sort of idea as to what the next move may be is the weekly chart. According to this, the .2640 support level we noted on Sunday is very important for Euro bulls. As a drop below this area, could be very harmful for their financial health. Keep .2775 as near term resistance.

Usd/Jpy
This pair is still looking extremely Dollar bullish on a technical basis, but similar to the situation we described in last Tuesday’s commentary, this pair needs to base in the mid 118’s to low 119’s to maintain this Dollar strength. The fact that North Korea states they are supposed to begin testing nuclear weapons soon, surely is not helping the Yen at all. Let’s use 117.75 as near term support, and 118.60 as resistance. I really like the way the weekly chart appears.

Usd/Chf
On Sunday night we mentioned that it would only take a strong ISM number to bring this pair back up to the .2550 high of Friday. Unfortunately for Dollar bulls this did not occur, as this pair is currently settling near the support level we noted of .2450. On a daily chart, it’s hard to figure out the next move by the Swiss, but judging from the Dollar long position our Swiss strategies are taking, we’ll side with the Buck. Leave .2450 as the support, and .2550 as the top.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 10/3, 9:00 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Short Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Long Bias

Don’t let the fact that our Yen & Swiss Franc strategies maintain the same net Dollar long bias as Sunday’s report fool you. Yesterday’s Dollar decline was enough to make them change their minds for a few hours, take short positions, close them out, then reestablish their Dollar long bias. It’s also interesting to see that our Euro strategies are now decidedly Dollar bearish. Participation is around 70%, perhaps it’s our strategies jockeying for position ahead of the US Payroll number Friday.

If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

US Non-Farm Payroll Simple Analysis

Daily Commentary for October 6th, 2006

US Non-Farm Payroll Simple Analysis

Good Thursday Evening, Friday Morning,

Boys and girls, it’s everyone’s favorite time of the month [[trumpets start playing]]…..US Non-Farm Payrolls. This is the one economic number that make traders see visions of Porsches and brokerage firms see visions of angry customers complaining by the thousands of problems getting their trades executed.

The number is supposed to come in right around 120K. We’re thinking it’s going to take a number of around 130K or higher to make the Dollar jump, and a number below 100K to put a dent in the recent Dollar strength. Our strategies our pointing towards the Dollar positive scenario. As always, use proper risk management and position sizing, so you’ll be able to participate in this fun event next month.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
Please revert to our analysis from Tuesday with respect to this pair, as absolutely nothing has changed on a technical basis. .2640 is the key support level heading into tomorrow. We still believe a drop below this level is going to result in an extended move of strength by the Dollar.

Usd/Jpy
This pair currently sits exactly at our 117.75 support level. Consolidation appears to be the operative word here. The Yen bulls are hoping the fact that this pair can not sustain momentum above 118 is a sign of weakness for the Dollar. The Yen bears are banking on the fact that this pair has been basing higher and higher since August is a sign that a break above 119 is right around the corner. Our strategies tend to side with the Yen bears right now. Keep the same levels as noted on Tuesday.

Usd/Chf
We nailed the “.2450 as the support, and .2550 as the top” call from Tuesday’s commentary. Our Swiss strategies have flipped a few times since then but currently maintain a Dollar long bias. Swiss unemployment data is due tomorrow morning ahead of the US data. Again, on the longer term charts, the Dollar looks due for a breakout with a strong number.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 10/5, 6:00 PM ET:

We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Long Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Long Bias

As it is now, our strategies have a unanimous net long Dollar bias approximately 14 hours before “the big number” tomorrow. Whether this changes or not leading up to the number is the question. If you’re interested in knowing what our strategies are saying right before the release, please send us an email, and we will be happy to share the information with you.

 

[T Squared Trading]

Much Like Red Bull...The Dollar Has Wings!!!

Daily Commentary for October 9th, 2006

Much Like Red Bull…The Dollar Has Wings!!!

Good Sunday Evening, Monday Morning,

The word of the day on Friday was “revision.” To make a long story short, although there were many revisions, the most important of them all out of Friday’s Non-Farm report was that data from the past 12 months did not include roughly 810K additional jobs. What this means, is that you could essentially add about 68K in jobs to each previous employment report. Of course this was greeted with joy from Dollar lovers. Will the Dollar strength continue this week? One thing is for sure; we broke out some major ranges on Friday…finally. Have a great week everyone.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
The Eur/Usd currently sits at .2600, which is below the key level of .2640 we noted. The fact that this didn’t regain much of its losses since Friday morning could be a sign that it’s consolidating for further Euro losses. A daily charts is showing .2550 as the next major level of support. EuroZone GDP and CPI data will be released this week.

Usd/Jpy
Our “Yen bear,” scenario we mentioned in the previous commentary came to fruition, as this pair spiked up to the 119 level post-release. The fact that North Korea did not fire its nuclear missile, as intimated over the weekend could cause the Yen to strengthen slightly when the Japanese markets reopen on Tuesday. Let’s use 119.50 as resistance, and 118.50 as support. Look for Japanese Consumer Confidence later this week.

Usd/Chf
On Thursday we noted, “again, on the longer term charts, the Dollar looks due for a breakout with a strong number.” Apparently the longer term charts were correct as this indeed occurred. You need to keep an eye on the longer term charts (weekly) to use as a guide for the next level of resistance. We see around .2670 as providing this resistance. Let’s use around.2550 as support.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 10/8, 9:00 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Long Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Long Bias

Even though we entered into the Non-Farms net Dollar long, the small “head-fake” seconds after the data was released was enough to trick some of our strategies into reversing their positions. Our strategies eventually realized their mistake but unfortunately their profits weren’t as large as they could have been. Participation is up around 80% as it appears that some of our strategies are waiting for a possible extension of Friday’s Dollar strength.

If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Go Buck…Go Buck!!!

Daily Commentary for October 11th, 2006

Go Buck…Go Buck!!!

Good Tuesday Evening, Wednesday Morning,

Dollar strength continued today during the European session and has leveled out since. The current tone is one of consolidation as is exhibited by our analysis below.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
.2500 is due to be the next level of support. There is a good chance of consolidation occurring in the .2500-.2550 level before the next move. Trade balance, Retail Sales, and the Beige Book should be market moving numbers for the rest of this week.

Usd/Jpy
Even though the North Korean Nukes turned out to be about as powerful as a spitball, the fact that they fired them at all was not a very good thing at all. This indeed further weakened the Yen, and a break above 120 would definitely be bearish for Yen lovers. Keep an eye on possible consolidation above 119.

Usd/Chf
Our .2670 resistance level has been breached by about 30 pips, as this pair currently rests at .2700. On a daily chart, this pair looks like it can’t be stopped, but the weekly chart shows some resistance at the .2770 area. Don’t be catching falling knives here, though.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 10/10, 9:00 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Long Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Neutral Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Neutral Bias

Our Dollar long bias has served our clients well the past 3 days. Our Euro strategies maintain the bias, but our Swiss and Yen strategies have moved to the sidelines for the meantime. Participation is rather low, having dipped down to the 40% range.

If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2