T Squared's Market Commentary

[T Squared Trading]

Hi Gang,

I decided to start a new thread that is more appropriate to what we're trying to contribute. We will provide our view on some news stories that have/will move the currency market, and also try to help you with general direction of some of the majors. You all are very lucky to have contributors like Aribitrageur on this forum, he is truely an asset.

Anyway here is your daily dose of market commentary for June 9th.

Some Key News Points:

- A key Al-Qaeda leader, Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi, was killed today

- Political tensions eased in Nigeria

- As a result the price of oil dipped down to about $70/barrel

- US CPI and PPI next week, investors are keeping there eye on this.

What our charts are saying:

-Our usd/jpy and usd/chf are still long thedollar and are nearing a profit target. We entered the usd/jpy around 111.90 and the usd/chf around .2060

- Our six additional eur/usd strategies are all long the dollar, as well. This happens from time to time when all of our strategies are pointing in the same direction. The last time this happened was last Friday for the payroll number, and we were fortunate. Please Note: We are significantly in the money on over half of these positions, so I'll keep you all updated on a reversal and/or profit target

- We will keep you updated tomorrow to let you know what our positions are doing

- We welcome any questions, comments, and thanks everyone for your continued support.

Thanks
Peace Out,
T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Took Profits

Hello all,

As I referred to in last night's commentary, we were long the dollar in almost all of our strategies, and were in the black. The brief consolidation and subsequent dip in the dollar appears to be enough for the strategies to flatten out, and on some, to flip to a short dollar bias in the near term. Our longer term eur strategies are still long the buck, but our near term eur strategies are now short the dollar.

Our swiss and yen strategies, flattened out of their long positions in the .2290 and 113.60 range respectively, they have subsequently flipped and are short the dollar. Look for our updated transaction listing and equity charts in a bit.

Good Luck and Have a nice weekend.
I'll be online for a few hours longer to field any questions comments, you may have.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

6/11 Evening Update

Good Evening,

Just wanted to drop a quick note letting you all know the 4 strategies in our Strategy Suite 1 (usd/chf, usd/jpy, and 2 eur/usd) are still short the dollar as of 10:30pm ET. Our additional 4 eur/usd strategies are showing a mixed bag of long/short positions. We are in the red slightly on our dollar short positions but will keep you posted.

Look for 2 additional Yen scalping strategies being offered on our site this week as well. Similar to our other strategies, they are algorithim-based, but are extremely active. We have traded them for the past few years, and finally have the risk management and position sizing parameters set in such a way to allow retail traders to utilize.

We've had a nice past 30 days, making our clients trading the Strategy Suite 1 approximately 24% return. You can view our profit and loss report with real money along with a transaction list on the website.

Thanks for your continued support and are always available to answer any questions you might have via telephone or email.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

6/12 Mid-Day Update

Good Afternoon/Evening,

Hope everyone is well. I wanted to give a quick update as to what our strategies are doing. The market seems to be consolidating a bit today.

The 4 strategies within our Strategy Suite 1 (Yen Optimizer, Euro Mega, Swiss XL, and Euro Tiburon) are still net short the dollar. Obviously, we’re in negative territory on these positions, but the positions are still open. The Swiss XL reversed bias and is now long the dollar from the mid .2350’s. Our live trading report is updated, and you’ll see a small drop in equity due to the past 2 weak sessions.

Our 4 individual strategies are mixed. The G5 is still holding on to about a 200 pip profit in a nice Euro short position. The Extreme has flipped short the Euro in the low 2600’s. Our ultra-sensitive Speed seems to be indifferent about the recent movement and has been out of the market since the middle of last week. Our Ace is in the red from the mid 2600’s.

All of our strategies vary in their timeframe and what they are looking for in terms of price and movement, and are all based on algorithms.

Always use proper risk management and position sizing.

Thanks,
T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

6/12-6/13 Evening/Morning Update

Good Evening/Morning,

Obviously, not much going on in the beginning of the Asian session, sans a few ticks higher by the USD. Not much earth-shattering in terms of changes in the charts, as well.

Our strategies are still maintaining the same course as was reported this afternoon.

Usd/Jpy-look to see how this cross behaves on the upside in the 114.70’s-80’s.

Usd/Chf-more consolidation, look to see the action in the .2360-.2350 range.

Eur/Usd-on a weekly basis, it looks like it may be breaking out slightly of the head and shoulders formation on the short side.

Thank You for your continued support,

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Good Afternoon/Good Evening,

We have received several emails in reference to the general idea of how our strategies “work.” I wanted to teach you quickly how one of our strategies operates and a quick update on our strategies biases as of 2pm ET.

How one of our strategies operates
In the chart attachment you will see a 1 year equity chart generated from our Euro Ace individual strategy. You will notice that the profitable trades occur in clusters and form a 75-90 degree angle. The drawdowns or losing trades are much less extreme and form a 45 degree angle or less for the most part. This is an illustration of why it’s important to execute every trade that an efficient system produces. It also display why the design of the strategy along with proper risk management and position sizing are so important. As a trader, you don’t know when the profits or losses are going to occur, only that percentages show over time that the profits will be in greater number than the losses



Strategy Suite 1
The strategies contained in our Strategy Suite 1 are all showing a short dollar bias. The swiss and yen both were stopped out this am, and switched to a negative dollar bias in the range of .2310-.2320 and 114.65-114.75, respectively. The 2 Euro strategies in the Suite have been long since this pair was in the mid .2600’s of last week.

Indvidual Strategies
Our G5 has been short the dollar since the .2770-.2780 range and still has not closed the position. The Extreme was stopped out in the mid .2500’s this am and is now dollar short. Our very sensitive Euro Speed produced its first trade since the middle of last week, and made a nice profit on a dollar long position this morning. Choppy activity continues

As always, feel free to ask any questions, and thank you for your continued support.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Daily Commentary for June 23rd 2006

Daily Commentary for June 23rd, 2006

Good Thursday Evening/Friday Morning,

The Dollar Flexes Its Muscles
The US Dollar ignored some weak data today to make strong gains in many of the major pairs today. Most of the so-called experts claim the rally was driven by technical indicators, as there was a lack of good news today to cause such a rise. Fortunately for our clients, we were long the dollar in a majority of our strategies, and thus they were able to make some nice profits. As we have said in the past, our strategies are designed from proprietary algorithms; we do not utilize technical indicators. I was reading an interview in one of the popular financial magazines this month. They were interviewing a trader, who basically stated that algorithm based strategies do not work, because the market is driven by human emotion. Apparently this trader is confused, because that is one of the reasons why algorithms DO work. If you’re able to mathematically quantify the behavior of a set(s) of people, for a given time, you will have a better chance of accurately predicting the future behavior of those people. All major companies do this, from their product development to their marketing efforts…..we do the same with our strategies.

Technical Indicators
Eur/Usd
The major number in this pair is 1.2250. That is the support level that many technicians are pointing to.
Usd/Jpy
Exciting session today as the dollar gained on the yen by about 120 pips. Watch how this pair behaves in the 116.30 region, as that appears to be the next level of resistance.
Usd/Chf
.2570 appears to be the next major resistance level, as the .2520 level we pointed out yesterday appears to have been breached. It wasn’t a violent move through .2520, so perhaps this level may stick after all.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 6/22, 10PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Long Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Long Bias

We are finding the market moves have been much more “fluid,” as of late, as opposed to the choppy activity that has been evident in the market the past few weeks. Our strategy subscribers are reaping the benefits of these moves.


Thank you for your continued support, and keep track of our strategy progress at: http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/113000/content.asp?menu=tracker , along with the equity charts on our website. If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Important Message to All

Dear Forum Members,

Our technical support team has been brought to our attention that our email address along with thousands of others has been “faked,” to send out the Netsky virus. According to Mcafee, Norton, and Symantec, and our personal experience, the virus is usually sent with a message titled Important Notice, Important, Urgent, etc, and has been in existence for over 2 years. The attachment usually is in a .zip format. Apparently, it’s fairly easy for someone to do something like this. All the virus needs to infect is one computer, and it gets access to all email addresses in there address book, and then continues to replicate.

If you, or anyone you know, has been a victim of this sort of forgery, or host a website of any kind, please view this site: http://www.openspf.org/users.html. I would strongly suggest you have your web-hosting company change the reporting on your SPF to protect your account.

T Squared Trading LLC, NEVER sends attachments of any kind. The only attachment that is sent, is to our complimentary market commentary subscribers, which is in PDF format.

If you have received any unsolicited emails from T Squared Trading of any kind, please bring it to our attention, either on this forum or via email.

 

[T Squared Trading]

E-Mail Issue Follow Up

Hello Everyone,

My technical support team has actually done a follow up, on the e-mail issue I posted earlier. We were able to do a follow up not only on an e-mail we received, supposedly sent BY US, but other emails that were received by other senders. They all had the Subject: Important, and contained .zip files.

Every email was traced back to the same IP address: 80.191.215.67. The e-mail is traced back to an individual located in Iran.

Anyhow, that's what we've uncovered. Look for a mid-day signal bias commentary from us in a bit.

Thanks for the continued support.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Daily Commentary & Strategy Bias For June 27, 2006

Daily Commentary for June 27th, 2006

Good Monday Evening/Tuesday Morning,

Strong US Housing Supports Fed Hike And Buffet Gives Back
The US dollar weakened today despite strong housing numbers that point to what seems like a 100th straight rate hike on Thursday. Some of the Forex experts believe this is just some consolidation before the mighty dollar soars again, perhaps later this week. Today’s action in the energy market will make you rethink the purchase of that new Ford Expedition you have had your heart set on. Crude Oil shot up 1.4% to $71.85 a barrel…..ouch if you use gas, wonderful if you were long Crude Oil. Warren Buffett made a pretty sizeable contribution to the fund started by Bill Gates and his wife Melinda. He wrote a check for close to all of his $44 billion. Mr. Buffett made a statement saying it was harder finding a cause to give his money away to, than to earn it in the first place. Personally speaking, if I had $44 billion dollars of liquid cash, sitting in a bank, I would first throw one final helluva’ party, then give a good portion to a deserving charity. Seriously, though, cheers to Mr. Buffett and his philanthropic gesture.

Technical Indicators
Eur/Usd
This pair had a nice 100 pip trading range, on which to make some nice money to pay for gas. Traders seem to think the bounce off the 1.2500 figure, was just temporary and will be back to test that level shortly. On the topside 1.2650-.2700 appears to be the resistance point.
Usd/Jpy
The possible resignation of Bank of Japan Governor Fukui is the primary driver in this pair. The board wants to see him stay, and the public wants to see him go. Watch for some nice moves in both direction as a result. 115.50 is a key level on the downside to watch
Usd/Chf
Swiss retail sales appeared to be the catalyst for the CHF strength today. Look for temporary support in the .2380-.2390 range.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 6/26, 10PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Short Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Short Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Short Bias

As you can plainly see here our strategies are not to fond of the dollar as of late. I must point out though, about 1/3 of our strategies have no position. That might point to some overall uncertainty, but obviously there is a negative dollar bias being exhibited by those participating.




T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Daily Market Commentary and Strategy Bias for June 28,2006

Daily Commentary for June 28th, 2006

Good Tuesday Evening/Wednesday Morning,

Traders Sit On Hands And Watch World Cup
Much of the action today was on the soccer field and not on the trading floors during Tuesday’s trading session. Odds are, the lack of activity was due to the market consolidating ahead of the all-important US Fed rate hike, I mean decision, on Thursday. A 25 basis point increase is expected, but there are whispers of a possible 50 basis point hike instead. Traders are hoping that the number will prove to be a catalyst for a more definitive market direction, as opposed to a 20-30 pip trading range exhibited in most pairs today. It’s times like this, we feel our algorithm based mechanical trading strategies are crucial. The reason for this is most importantly, it takes all of the human emotion out of trading. During this consolidation period, most discretionary traders get frustrated by continuously paying the spread, while trying to figure out the market direction. Secondly, our trade results and statistics show that more often than not, our clients are on the “right side” of the trade once a market direction is identified. As we always stress, with proper risk management and position sizing, our clients will always be in optimal position to capitalize on dramatic market moves. Congratulations to Brazil soccer/football fans, and our sympathies to Spain’s faithful.

Technical Indicators
Eur/Usd
Much like the other major pairs today, there was a narrow trading range. Traders are still pointing to 1.2500 as the price to watch, most likely this area will be tested as we get closer to Thursday. On the topside 1.2650-.2700 still appears to be the resistance point.
Usd/Jpy
In a quick follow up to our comments last night regarding the possible resignation of Bank of Japan’s Governor Fukui, news out of Japan has his wife implicated in the Murakami stock scandal. The people of Japan still want to see him go, and it will be interesting to see if this pair decides to test the 118 resistance level.
Usd/Chf
A very narrow trading range in this pair also, choppiness is exhibited between .2400 and .2500.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 6/27, 10PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
Slight $ Short Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Short Bias

Our strategies are currently “bias specific.” What I mean by this, is there is no general direction a majority of our strategies are pointing towards. Each of our strategies are designed to look for different movements and changes in the market. Our current clients who are utilizing our shorter term sensitive strategies, are able to book nice profits during these narrow trading ranges.

Thank you for your continued support, and keep track of our strategy progress, along with the equity charts and real-money profit and loss report on our website. If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

PS Apologies to Barjon in regards to the url's

 

[T Squared Trading]

Daily Market Commentary and Strategy Bias for June 29,2006

Daily Commentary for June 29th, 2006

Good Wednesday Evening/Thursday Morning,

T-G-I-T: Thank Goodness It’s Thursday
You’re humble correspondent is giddy for 2 reasons. The first being the fact that hopefully a definitive market direction will be established after the US Fed makes its decision. The second being the fact that we can stop analyzing every angle, and every scenario of this issue, and finally get on with it…..at least until we get to do it all over again next month. That being said, of course I’m going to briefly explore the 3 different scenarios and the likely market reaction. 1) Up rates by ¼ and keep slightly bullish dollar sentiment unchanged. This will most likely hurt the dollar, as buck-backers are hoping for a more bullish stance from Bernake and the boys. 2) Raise rates by ¼ and hint at future rate increases. This scenario will add more fuel to the fire of dollar lovers, and most likely result in a dollar rally. 3) Raise rates by ¼ and shift to more of a neutral bias. If this occurs, most traders will begin typing frantically away at their keyboard, unloading there dollar long positions, and switching to a dollar short. This would be the first hint that the Fed might be finished raising rates…..finally!

Technical Indicators
Eur/Usd
Obviously this pair will be swayed by the market data tomorrow. If there is dollar weakness, we’re anxious to see how this pair reacts to the 1.2400 level.
Usd/Jpy
Any dollar strength after tomorrow’s number could be exaggerated with this pair, due to the situation with Fukui. As is mostly the case, traders hate instability and I really can’t think of a more unstable situration, and the Yen could suffer as a result.
Usd/Chf
See comment from Eur/Usd above. .2550-.2600 could be an interesting level to watch.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 6/28, 10PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
Neutral Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Long Bias

It’s always interesting to us to see how are strategies are lined up in terms of bias prior to a big economic number. As always, nothing is guaranteed, but fortunately in the past, we’ve been on the right side more often than not.

Thank you for your continued support, and keep track of our strategy progress at: , along with the equity charts and real-money profit and loss report on our website. If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

T Squared Trading Clients Cash In As Dollar Falls

Daily Commentary for June 30th, 2006

Good Thursday Evening/Friday Morning,

T Squared Trading Clients Cash In As Dollar Falls
Last evening we referred to 3 of the most likely scenarios today in reference to the Fed’s decision. The Fed decided to go with option 3 in our list of choices. As expected, they raised rates by a ¼, but left traders in doubt as to the possibility of future rate hikes. Of course, this was a treat for many in the US, signifying that the rate of inflation might be slowing, and that cruise to Hawaii you’ve been promising your girlfriend might become a bit more affordable. Unfortunately, you might have to walk to the boat instead of driving, as many see the Fed’s comments being bullish for commodity prices. As a result, oil surge a dollar to $73/barrel. Most of our strategies turned dollar bearish prior to the Fed decision, and in the first few moments following. Our loyal clients can now enjoy their weekend and holiday with some extra money in their pockets, and can continue to feel confident with T Squared Trading LLC.

Technical Indicators
Eur/Usd
The Euro was one of the many currencies which reaped the benefits of the Fed’s comments. Forget about the .2400 support level for now, key on how this pair reacts to the .2700 level on the top side.
Usd/Jpy
In spite of the Fukui situation we’ve been discussing the last few commentaries, the Yen rallied today. One will never know if it was a response to the US Fed announcement or greater forces such as the PPT. Keep an eye out for the Japanese CPI this evening. The 114.50 area could be the first level of support in this pair
Usd/Chf
.2300 could be a key area support on the Swiss, as well.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 6/29, 6PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Short Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Short Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Short Bias

As I said last evening in this section, it’s always interesting to see how our strategies react prior to a key economic number. Obviously, we were pleased to see how our strategies performed, and even happier that we were able to make money for our clients.

Thank you for your continued support, and keep track of our strategy progress through a site providing third party verification , along with the equity charts and real-money profit and loss report on our website. If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Daily Commentary and Strategy Bias for July 3 2006

Daily Commentary for June 3rd, 2006

Good Sunday Evening/Monday Morning,

Continued Dollar Decline, No More Pennies???
The Dollar continued it’s freefall on Friday, losing an additional 100+ pips in most of the pairs. The decrease was attributed to a follow thru to the Fed comments the previous day, despite bullish economic data in the morning. While most of the US traders will most likely be consumed in eating hot dogs and hamburgers the next two days, stay alert for some additional movement. The next major dollar mover might be the Non-Farm Payrolls this Friday. In additional currency related news, the US Mint is entertaining the notion of ending the production of pennies. The reason for this is the cost of making a penny outweighs its value. That is bad news for me, as I will eventually have nothing to throw into wishing fountains, as I’m certainly not going to throw a way a nickel or dime. Finally, our clients continued stuffing their wallets on Friday, adding an additional 7% to their account. Please check out our independend third party "verifier" for details.

Technical Indicators
Eur/Usd
The possibility of the European Central Bank hiking their respective rates this week could lead to further Euro strength. Our .2700 resistance area was breached on Friday, so our new level to look for is the .2870 ares.
Usd/Jpy
The Yen had an odd session on Friday as it was weaker against almost every other major currency except for the dollar, in which it gained another 100+ pips. Look for the anticipated Tankan Business Report this evening for further direction as to the next bit of movement. You need to look at 114 as the next bit of support.
Usd/Chf
About 6 weeks of weakness was erased on Thursday and Friday as this pair gained about 200 pips on the Dollar. The SVME Purchasing Managers Index could lead to some additional strength tomorrow. Look for .2170 as near term support.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 7/2, 9PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Short Bias
Usd/Jpy
Neutral Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Short Bias

As we’re looking at our chart patterns and our strategy biases, we see a continued short $ bias, but participation is lacking in a few of our strategies. This could be a sign that a consolidation could be taking place. If you look at the move by the 3 major pairs, it formed a 75-80 degree angle. History shows that this type of move is not sustainable. Look for our commentary tomorrow where we will give a more detailed description of our equity charts and why are profit and loss reports are important in knowing our general trading methodology.

Thank you for your continued support, and keep track of our strategy progress at: our third party "verifier" , along with the equity charts and real-money profit and loss report on our website. If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Oil Rises, Dollar Consolidates, And I Can’t Wait For Fireworks

Daily Commentary for July 4th, 2006

Good Monday Evening/Tuesday Morning,

Oil Rises, Dollar Consolidates, And I Can’t Wait For Fireworks
Black gold rose to almost $74/barrel, approaching the all-time high of $75.35. Analysts point to the summer travel season and consumers shrugging off high gas prices as the reason for the recent increase. The Dollar started it’s somewhat expected consolidation process, gaining a small percentage of its losses back against most majors. The unsustainable move that we referred to in yesterday’s commentary coupled with the US holiday attributed to the dull action. The recent movement of the Dollar is very similar to the movement of the Equity Curve of our strategies. What I mean is a period of consolidation in any market is usually followed by a defined movement, followed by a period of consolidation, followed by a defined movement, etc. Of course, this is a very simplified way of explaining this, but our strategies perform the same way. As the market goes sideways, our strategies basically run in place occasionally having some profitable trades, and occasionally having some negative trades. When a move is identified our strategies are able to recognize this, and that is when the nice profits are usually made. This is the reason we think it’s ridiculous for a company to offer a 1 or 2 week period so the client can “try” the system. Please question us if this is not explained properly. Finally, to all of our US customers, enjoy your Independence Day tomorrow, and don’t eat too many hot dogs.

Technical Indicators
Eur/Usd
Similar to the anticipation of the US Fed decision last week, many in Euro area, are eagerly awaiting the comments of ECB President Trichet on Thursday. Many are saying any comments referring to the tightening of interest rates could propel this pair to the 1.2900 plateau.
Usd/Jpy
The strong Tankan survey fell victim to the ongoing Fukui situation. Many traders are pointing to the indecision as to whether Fukui will stay or go as the reason for the skittish nature of the Yen in today’s session. We’re still keying on the 114 area
Usd/Chf
A strong SVME purchasing managers index, did nothing for the Swiss Franc against the Dollar. We’re now net long the Dollar in this pair, so look for resistance around .2310 for now.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 7/3, 9PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Short Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Short Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Long Bias

There is not much participation from our Eur/Usd strategies, and our Yen and Swiss strategies are differing in opinion. This is a classic example of how our strategies react in the midst of consolidation. It’s also interesting to see how our portfolio of strategies react differently to our scalping type strategies.

Thank you for your continued support, and keep track of our strategy progress at: ........... , along with the equity charts and real-money profit and loss report on our website. If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Bar-B-Que, Fireworks, And……………..Missiles???

Daily Commentary for July 5th, 2006

Good Tuesday Evening/Wednesday Morning,

Bar-B-Que, Fireworks, And……………..Missiles???
Many American’s nearly choked on their hot dogs and hamburgers as word spread of the testing of North Korean missiles this afternoon. Obviously the rest of the world took note too, as one of these bad boys apparently has the ability to travel close to 9000 miles. Thankfully the massive weapons behaved like an injured pelican as opposed to a long-range missile. The currency market is behaving sheepishly for a second straight day, no doubt a result of the US holiday and the lack of any market moving news. This all should change in the next few days, as traders prepare for the upcoming ECB decision along with the US jobs report on Friday. On a lighter note, in the Annual Hot Dog Eating contest in New York today, the legendary Kobayashi was able to eat a record 53 ½ hot dogs in 12 minutes. I had a bowl of potato salad and got an upset stomach....I guess I’m not a good candidate to enter the contest next year.
Technical Indicators
Eur/Usd
Additional EuroZone data was released today, and was in line with what was expected. As we have pointed to previously, there is growing evidence that the rate of inflation is still not under control, and rate increasing is inevitable, if not this week, then later in the summer. The only thing that could keep Trichet from being too bullish in his comments on the rate of inflation is the current level of the Euro. Again, .2900 will be an interesting level.
Usd/Jpy
The two overriding factors in this pair are the zero interest rate policy and the ongoing Fukui soap opera. Many think it’s time to lift the ZIRP, and Yen volatility could result. Almost ¾ of the Japanese voters think it’s a wise choice for Fukui to resign. Look for the 114 as a near term support.
Usd/Chf
Not nearly as much to report here for tonight. Look for .2200 as support

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 7/4, 8PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Short Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Long Bias

The major change in our strategies was a switch to a Dollar long bias in our Yen strategies. We’re starting to see a bit more participation in our strategies across the board, so we could only assume that they are starting some positioning for the upcoming economic reports.

Thank you for your continued support, and keep track of our strategy progress at ........, along with the equity charts and real-money profit and loss report on our website. If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Strong ADP Report Lifts Dollar, and it’s France and Italy!

Daily Commentary for July 6th, 2006

Good Wednesday Evening/Thursday Morning,

Strong ADP Report Lifts Dollar, and it’s France and Italy!
The Dollar was able to regain a bit of it’s Mojo during today’s trading session thanks to a stronger than expected estimation of the Non-Farm Payrolls from the Macroeconomic Advisers National Employment Report. They predicted that the number rose by 368K in June. This prompted many of the big banks to grab their erasers and significantly modify their current estimation. As a result, it was reported that some banks basically doubled their current estimate. This sets up an interesting scenario for Friday. Indeed, it was just a revision of an estimate, but logic would say if this is all the dollar could muster after a suggestion of a much stronger number, the buck might be in serious trouble if the actual number disappoints. Oil prices hit another high, closing at around 75.40/barrel. In unrelated news, France was able to squeak out a close one against Portugal and will face Italy on Sunday for the big prize. Being a US backer, I’m pretty neutral in my feelings towards who I want to win, but it’s very impressive to see the passion that soccer fans across the world share.

Technical Indicators
Eur/Usd
A strong PMI report was not nearly enough for the Euro to rally this morning. This strong number in May could mean only positive things as the presence of the World Cup should result in continued strong numbers reported from the months of June and July. Here’s a friendly reminder to remember to watch out for Trichet’s comments tomorrow included in the ECB decision. We’re still keying on the .2700 number right now for support
Usd/Jpy
The Yen behaved like a bungee cord during last night and today’s trading session. After the news was reported of the missiles fired from North Korea, the Yen sold off. It then recovered after the missile apparently forgot to take it’s Viagra, and then sold off again after US traders awoke from their three day nap. 115-116 should be the range for the next day or so.
Usd/Chf
Swiss National Bank President Roth threw a monkey wrench into Swissy fans plans today. He stated that he sees slowing economic growth, which will most likely result in a slowing of interest rate hikes. Look at .2300 for support, although the Swiss seems to be very vulnerable at this point.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 7/5, 7PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Short Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Long Bias

Even though the dollar was moving, there was no change in our strategy biases in the past 24 hours. Our short terms Euro strategies were able to book some profits, as our longer term Euro strategies are either giving back some of there gains, or currently in the red. A few additional strategies have joined the party and have taken some positions in the “calm before the storm.” Check back tomorrow night to see if we have a unanimous general bias, or if our strategies are still somewhat split.



T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Weaker ISM Causes Some Head Scratching & Can You Hear Me Now?

Daily Commentary for July 7th, 2006

Good Thursday Evening/Friday Morning,

Weaker ISM Causes Some Head Scratching & Can You Hear Me Now?
So the strong ADP number comes out yesterday and Dollar bulls start thumping their chests with the expectation of a dynamite non-farm payroll number tomorrow. Then the ISM-Manufacturers Index comes out this morning, and those same Dollar lovers look like they ate some bad sushi. The employment section of the ISM was much lower than expected, and as a result, caused some confusion as to whether or not the ADP number was correctly calculated yesterday. I’d have an easier job predicting if I’m going to be married this time next year, than wagering a guess as to the direction of tomorrow’s key economic number. My advice to those playing the number for a quick move, please be careful, and use RIGID money management. Do not risk more than you normally do, and please keep in mind there almost always is slippage. The fact that a number like this is approaching has no impact on our strategies taking positions and also doesn’t impact our strict risk management. On a side note, I heard something about the situation in North Korea that I had no idea of. In another example of the strict totalitarian leadership citizens of North Korea face, they aren’t able to own cell phones. Don’t expect the Verizon guy to be doing a commercial there any time soon. Have a nice weekend everyone!

Technical Indicators
Eur/Usd
The ECB decided to leave rates unchanged and made some bullish statements on the level of inflation apparent in the EuroZone. In Trichet’s comments he basically said they will be raising rates again in the near future, most likely in August and again in September. The Euro will most likely be the greatest beneficiary of any weakness in tomorrow’s number, we look for .2900 to provide some initial resistance and then the magical .3000 level will be tested.
Usd/Jpy
The continued possibility of an interest rate hike next week was enough to persuade Yen backers to ignore the North Korean situation for the time being. There was some interest in the Yen against the major currencies. It seems like we’ve had consolidation between 115-116, so look for a more defined direction tomorrow morning. As of tonight our strategies are pointing towards the north.
Usd/Chf
Look for the Swiss Unemployment Report tomorrow morning. The number is supposed to be strong. Although SNB President Roth had some statements about the slowing of the inflationary risks, take note of the number to see if it conflicts with what Roth stated. Look for how this pair breaks out tomorrow of the .2300-.2400 range

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 7/6, 9PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Short Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Long Bias

Similar to the past 3 days there is no change in bias. It will be interesting to see if any additional positioning takes place in the hours leading up to the number in the am. The moments leading up to a key number like this is a very exciting time for traders. Don’t get caught up in the euphoria, and get $$$ signs in your eyes. As I pointed out above, be smart, and remember, the key to the game is risk management and preservation of capital. You want to have some ammo left in the gun so you can do this all over again next month!

Content edited by rossored: Removed various URLs. Please desist!

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Non-Farm Payroll Number Accomplishes Nothing, Congrats To Italy

Daily Commentary for July 10th, 2006

Good Sunday Evening/Monday Morning,

Non-Farm Payroll Number Accomplishes Nothing, Congrats To Italy
We hope everyone had a nice weekend watching Wimbledon, The World Cup, and of course thinking about how they could have made better trades in the non-farm payroll. The ADP report on Wednesday was apparently dead wrong in predicting the number, as the number came in significantly below the expectations. As a result, the dollar quickly sold off, but rebounded somewhat after it was realized the data contained within the report wasn’t as bad as it seemed, due to a rebound in manufacturing and strong job numbers. The unfortunate aspect about the overall data was it gave no real direction as to what the heck to do next as a trader. Do you support the dollar across the board, or do trade against it? Our feeling for the near term at least, is it will depend on the currency the dollar is trading against. There are a bunch of underlying factors in the other currencies, i.e. ECB, ZIRP, etc., that will make it interesting to watch what happens. Obviously, we’ll let our strategies give us the direction to follow, but this is just an educated guess. Aside from that, kudos to Amelie Mauresmo, Roger Federer (even though I’m becoming more of a Nadal fan), and the country of Italy!

Technical Indicators
Eur/Usd
The Euro received a jolt after the number on Friday, but similar to other currencies, backed off a bit after the “dust settled.” It appears it’s going to need a bit more pro-Euro news, or risk settling back down in the consolidation zone of .2600-.2800. The hope for Euro backers is that the increased economy generated by the World Cup and a ECB rate hike later this month, will be the much needed push it needs.
Usd/Jpy
This pair broke out of its trading range and headed towards 114 on Friday. If the Fukui scandal is brushed aside soon, look for the possibility of a rate hike and a surprise People’s Bank of China meeting to further strengthen the Yen. Look for new support around 113.50.
Usd/Chf
Swiss unemployment dropped to a 3 year low as reported on Friday. The Swiss economy is appearing quite strong according to recent reports. Our strategies are currently reporting a Swiss long bias. Look around .2190 as near terms support for the dollar in this pair.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 7/9, 7PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Short Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Short Bias

The payroll number on Friday was only a small money-maker for our Suite 1, as the strategies contained within were split in bias going into the number. Shortly after the number was released, the dollar long strategies reversed position. Our individual strategies profit and loss was mixed as well. Currently we are still dollar short overall with a majority of our strategies participating.


T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Some T Squared Clients See Red As Dollar Rises

Daily Commentary for July 11th, 2006

Good Monday Evening/Tuesday Morning,

Some T Squared Clients See Red As Dollar Rises
We tend to broadcast to everyone when our loyal clients make some money, so we feel it’s only right to make it equally known when they are on the losing end as well. I’ll get to why it’s not as bad as it seems in a moment.

The Dollar started the week off on a positive note as traders took the comments made on Friday as a possibility that another rate hike might occur in August. This along with the rise of energy prices last week was enough to strengthen the Dollar just enough to make the eggs and French toast I had for lunch give me indigestion. Obviously, though losses are part of the game of trading, and need to be dealt with mentally in the same manner that we deal with winners.

On a positive note, not all of our strategies were losers today, as some of our shorter terms Euro strategies were able to make some money on the Euro weakness. The majority of our losing trades are still open or unrealized, meaning we haven’t closed the trades yet. As long as there is proper risk management in place, bad days can be tolerated. As a trader you start getting into trouble by adding to positions as losing trades mount. DO NOT start risking more just to get back to even, stick to your game-plan and remain calm. If need be, take the day off, drink a Martini, go to the zoo, fly a kite, etc. When you come back to trade, you will be much more level-headed and rational. The name of the game is preservation of wealth.

Technical Indicators
Eur/Usd
Even comments by Euro group President Junker basically guaranteeing a rate hike in August wasn’t enough to overcome the Dollar strength. It was just another example that the Dollar is the puppet master and a strong Dollar trumps any other major currency. Look for .2680 as near-term support, but it seems like the .2600-.2800 trading range will be consistent.
Usd/Jpy
The support that we noted last night (113.50) proved to be correct. The pair bounced off this level and quickly reversed course to rest comfortably around 114. We will discuss our views on the possibility of Japan attacking North Korea, and it’s possible affect tomorrow evening. Look for 115 as a near term top.
Usd/Chf
Similar to the Euro, all the good news in the world couldn’t help the Swissy against the Buck. Look for a near term resistance of around .2350, and .2190 as the support level

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 7/10, 8:45PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Short Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Short Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Long Bias

Our Euro strategies continue to be stubborn for the most part and continue to think of the Dollar about as appetizing as a bad mango. Our Swiss strategies were more easily convinced as they turned into Dollar lovers for the meantime. There is very little participation in our Yen strategies, as many of our shorter term Yen strategies were able to cash in on the dollar strength today, and are currently taking a siesta.

Edited by rossored

T2