ForexMorningTrade System

[tkbieber]

Should this guy be allowed to continually (overtly and backhandedly) his *******ized FMT on this forum? This is an FMT forum, not a TKBEIBER *******ized FMT rip off forum...

What are you talking about? All I am saying is the the EA gets 70% win rate, no more no less. It doesn't look at trends like was suggested it should take under consideration before trading. Goodness, someone must have had a bad trade last night.

 

[mail2thomasp]

I think we just lost focus! I was only interesting in any comments from experienced FMT users regarding manually konfigure the EA to only trade in the direction of the long term trend. I believe this can be set in the dialog box under the "comon" tab.

Of cource long term trend direction is objective but I think that most traders will agree that in april the daily trend was up. The fact that most loses in april was short trades make me think of this manual konfiguration as a way to increase the performance.

 

[Jashfx]

With All this Talk about Bank/Public Holidays, lets not forget that its
FREEDOM DAY in South Africa and its known that the Sort After RAND can drastically affect Global Markets.

 

[podberry]

To put the cat amongst the pigeons, everyone has their own strategy in uncertain times eg holidays.
Even veteran FMT traders are using different settings eg 10/40. or saying ' glad I stayed out of todays trade' . If you are following the rules then then why the changes, why come up with different strategies and staying out on certain days ? Lots of contradiction going on at the moment. Every man for himself seems to be the bottom line.

 

[joke]

To put the cat amongst the pigeons, everyone has their own strategy in uncertain times eg holidays.
Even veteran FMT traders are using different settings eg 10/40. or saying ' glad I stayed out of todays trade' . If you are following the rules then then why the changes, why come up with different strategies and staying out on certain days ? Lots of contradiction going on at the moment. Every man for himself seems to be the bottom line.

I totally agree with you podberry, it does seem like there are so many different views at the moment about trading bank holidays or not..etc.. I for one do enjoy the diiferent view points of different traders.I know that my own "education" in the forex has increased much during my time on this forum. I do agree with you that we should stick with certain rules and trade them..but we also have to remember that the market does change and with it we must also. I do presently use the 10/40, and also the revised settings from Marc on the EA. I personally believe the only settings that are a "sure" thing, if there was ever one, was the previous live ones and the present live trades we are in. Forward testing and back testing should only be used as a guide in forming our present strategy. I think with all our heads being put together, we can definately optimize FMT to a level that is more profitable. Thanks to all our discussions, I will not be trading bank holidays again or Christmas or the first week of January. To me, this makes sense due to the history of trading during these time..Who knows, with everyone working together and sharing their experiences good and bad, we can optimize FMT to a point of profitability to 90% +!!! DARE TO DREAM

 

[PipZombie]

I totally agree with you podberry, it does seem like there are so many different views at the moment about trading bank holidays or not..etc.. I for one do enjoy the diiferent view points of different traders.I know that my own "education" in the forex has increased much during my time on this forum. I do agree with you that we should stick with certain rules and trade them..but we also have to remember that the market does change and with it we must also. I do presently use the 10/40, and also the revised settings from Marc on the EA. I personally believe the only settings that are a "sure" thing, if there was ever one, was the previous live ones and the present live trades we are in. Forward testing and back testing should only be used as a guide in forming our present strategy. I think with all our heads being put together, we can definately optimize FMT to a level that is more profitable. Thanks to all our discussions, I will not be trading bank holidays again or Christmas or the first week of January. To me, this makes sense due to the history of trading during these time..Who knows, with everyone working together and sharing their experiences good and bad, we can optimize FMT to a point of profitability to 90% +!!! DARE TO DREAM

PLAN YOUR TRADE AND TRADE "YOUR" PLAN. All other things do not matter. Just be consistant so that you can evaluate your performance. If you have a gut feeling about something you probably have "gas". LOL:cheesy:

 

[wiseambitions]

PLAN YOUR TRADE AND TRADE "YOUR" PLAN. All other things do not matter. Just be consistant so that you can evaluate your performance. If you have a gut feeling about something you probably have "gas". LOL:cheesy:

Sounds sensible to me.

Someone here within the last month said they don't so much measure their success by the number of pips, but rather by how well they kept to the rules.

We've all seen the back tests, and these refer to every day when trade signals came out whatever the support & resistance, whatever the day of the week, or whether it was the king's wedding or the British bank holiday. Those results confirmed the long term success of FMT and there were none the less some days which might have been considered unfavourable which actually produced profit. Maybe yes the % of winning trades could be increased by decisions to stay away some days, but we're getting to the interference of human emotions here.

Maybe what we can all agree is that it is preferable not to trade on days which are holidays common to the UK and Europe and the USA even if forex rates are still quoted. Eg Christmas, Easter, but there's no rule against trading every other day

 

[jore]

Hi,
Here are the promised stats regarding FMT with new Settings 45/35 25BE+5 Starttime 7:15.

I made the back test, from Jan.01.2007 to Apr.22.2011, quotes from alpari UK, spread at back test 1.1 pips. All holydays are included, no day was left out. Then I run a Monte Carlo simulation as described in the books by van Tharp.
Here are the results:

If you use 2% risk
the average annual return is 68.7% and the average DrawDown is -13.3%
but
in 90% of all cases you will earn at least 10.7% p.a. and
in 90% of all cases your DrawDown will not exceed -26.3%

If you look for a 100% annual return you have
to risk 2.7%, the average DD is then -20.4%
but
in 90% of all cases you will earn at least 14.2% p.a. and
in 90% of all cases your DD will not exceed -40.2% (max DD in 10000 Simulations was -60%)

If you risk 5% a DrawDown of 100% is underwritten.

So don't be greedy.

The numbers slightly grade down these settings, comparing with settings 40/40/20BE.
But if you read hammy carefully he underlined, that the new settings outperform at the moment, no one knows the future.

And for the fans of van Tharp:
The System Quality number is 2.95 (both settings)
Score 2 – 3 good systems
Score 3 – 5 excellent systems

But this is all theory, in practice I lost 40 pips today in three live accounts .

green pips for all
jore

 

[billcurry]

FYI guys, there are some significant fundamentals going on today. I'm not sure if they influenced today's loss, but it's worth mentioning. Here's a trade alert I received from the wonderful people who made KangarooEA:

1. US FOMC Statement and Interest Rate. This release has shown to have a possibly large impact on any USD pairs. Look for widening of spreads that might trigger SLs and spikes both ways.

2. US FOMC PUBLIC Press Conference. This is a quarterly release that has never been held publicly before. Topics might include future interest rate discussion and the recent S&P negative outlook on US economy. Could cause increase in volatility, disrupt current trends and thus have an unpredictable outcome on your trades.

Also, if you take a look at UK bank holiday calendar (http://www.buyusa.gov/uk/en/uk_public_holidays.html, posted by Jashfx) you'll see that this/last week is/was pretty much the worst week in the whole year to be trading. There's also another holiday this Monday ("May Day", seriously?). Damn bankers and all their ****ing holidays.

Don't fret guys, May is going to be great.

 

[Adamus]

With All this Talk about Bank/Public Holidays, lets not forget that its
FREEDOM DAY in South Africa and its known that the Sort After RAND can drastically affect Global Markets.

can you guys trade the rand? if so what kind of bid/ask spread do you get? would be interesting to see if the fmt principle applies to the rand as well as the gbp. you've got more or less the same time zone.

 

[3PO]

Hi,
Here are the promised stats regarding FMT with new Settings 45/35 25BE+5 Starttime 7:15.

I made the back test, from Jan.01.2007 to Apr.22.2011, quotes from alpari UK, spread at back test 1.1 pips. All holydays are included, no day was left out. Then I run a Monte Carlo simulation as described in the books by van Tharp.
Here are the results:

If you use 2% risk
the average annual return is 68.7% and the average DrawDown is -13.3%
but
in 90% of all cases you will earn at least 10.7% p.a. and
in 90% of all cases your DrawDown will not exceed -26.3%

If you look for a 100% annual return you have
to risk 2.7%, the average DD is then -20.4%
but
in 90% of all cases you will earn at least 14.2% p.a. and
in 90% of all cases your DD will not exceed -40.2% (max DD in 10000 Simulations was -60%)

If you risk 5% a DrawDown of 100% is underwritten.

So don't be greedy.

The numbers slightly grade down these settings, comparing with settings 40/40/20BE.
But if you read hammy carefully he underlined, that the new settings outperform at the moment, no one knows the future.

And for the fans of van Tharp:
The System Quality number is 2.95 (both settings)
Score 2 – 3 good systems
Score 3 – 5 excellent systems

But this is all theory, in practice I lost 40 pips today in three live accounts .

green pips for all
jore

Thank you for your effort! I will consider taking 3% risk with some kind of moneymanagamenet of reivesting a certain percentage of the profit (or decrease the risk with it in case of loss).
3PO

 

[Jashfx]

can you guys trade the rand? if so what kind of bid/ask spread do you get? would be interesting to see if the fmt principle applies to the rand as well as the gbp. you've got more or less the same time zone.

Im sure its possible to trade the rand but I was totally joking in my earlier post. I would not go near the cuurency with a 10foot pole. I honestly dont know what the spread is but can only imagine it to be large. FMT im sure would not work at all well with it.

 

[shaunk]

Let not all forget about the big news in London this week happening on Friday when I doubt there'll be no more than 3 people working, but instead in the street waiting for a glimpse of the Royals or glued to their TV's. I'm not going to trade anymore this week..

 

[coral]

Let not all forget about the big news in London this week happening on Friday when I doubt there'll be no more than 3 people working, but instead in the street waiting for a glimpse of the Royals or glued to their TV's. I'm not going to trade anymore this week..

I'm on the road this week, and took the 2 losers, but 2nd one was on reduced risk. I will look at market in the morning and decide whether to take it based on technicals. Can't wait 'til we get back to normal next week and get rid of all the UK holidays and let the EA ride the waves.

 

[wiseambitions]

Seems like we wouldn't be trading if we wanted to today, M too high. Would prefer similar signals until Tuesday while trading is so dangerous. Back to bed.

 

[mike1booth]

Think the decision has been made for us this morning. Ah well back to bed!

 

[wiseambitions]

I've just noticed it was exactly a year ago (well the first week of May in 2010) when the pound was at its nadir. Dipping below 1.45. It is now at its highest in about 18 months. Wouldn't it be nice to see cheaper fuel at the pumps and cheaper imported goods generally!

 

[mike1booth]

Seems like we wouldn't be trading if we wanted to today, M too high. Would prefer similar signals until Tuesday while trading is so dangerous. Back to bed.

Just looked at my manual back test where I have a log of the M etc going back to Dec 2009. Its never been that high!

 

[mike1booth]

I've just noticed it was exactly a year ago (well the first week of May in 2010) when the pound was at its nadir. Dipping below 1.45. It is now at its highest in about 18 months. Wouldn't it be nice to see cheaper fuel at the pumps and cheaper imported goods generally!

Your right. 19/5/2010 it was 1.4315. It was a no trade that day too. M to low!

 

[wiseambitions]

Your right. 19/5/2010 it was 1.4315. It was a no trade that day too. M to low!

I remember it was due to the UK election, trade was all over the place last May. None of us were using FMT principles at that time, but I remember David Cameron saying things at such times at 7 a.m that they needed some certainty by the time the markets opened! And 400 pips a day ranges were the order of the day. A lot of money won or lost I'm sure.

I can't think what news all this stuff is acting on. Dollar is also weak against the euro, also the yen today.