Hotch
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Just setting the rules and following them. No deviation.
That's not your edge though is it. Follow rules of a negative expectancy system wouldn't be an edge.
What about the rules gives you an edge?
All systems have negative expectancy. That's why 95% of traders don't make any money and the 5% that do figured out how to handle negative trades.
A system can work great but most people can't follow a system's rules, thus they get in trouble.
Cheers mate, it's a holiday. :cheers:
Hotch
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All systems have negative expectancy. That's why 95% of traders don't make any money and the 5% that do figured out how to handle negative trades.
A system can work great but most people can't follow a system's rules, thus they get in trouble.
Cheers mate, it's a holiday. :cheers:
So you're saying your system has negative expectancy.
Ok, all trades are closed and back on track with the recovery from the loss last week. It's at it's all-time high of +113% :clap:
I'm shutting it down for two weeks because I am going on vacation and can't be around to monitor it. I should be able to begin again on the 25th.
I'm shutting it down for two weeks because I am going on vacation and can't be around to monitor it. I should be able to begin again on the 25th.
Hi tkbieber,
This method has copped a bit of a beating in the last couple of months but as long as it is recognised to be a high risk-high reward, wild ride it is still interesting to me.
Two questions:
1. Are you doubling up your trade size each time you have a losing trade?
2. Have you done an analysis of what your biggest INDIVIDUAL drawdown in pips and percentage of equity would have been IF you had NOT used a stop loss on any of your trades?
As I have said previously, I think you are on the right track. Good luck. This EA is morphing into something that is getting very interesting.
PS I am a professional trader.
Hello,
1: Yes, I use to take the loss in $ amount and divide by 2 trades or 80 pips. Now, I just take the loss in $ and divide by 40 pips to get in back in one trade.
2: No, but a SL is necessary as I've seen about once or twice a year where the market seems to have an endless trend and can go for 500-900 pips before any kind of entrancement happens. That just crazy risk if I had no sl. Also, I determine the % of risk I want to trade by using a SL. I start out trading at 5% risk.
To the best I can, I have tested this trading style back to July, 2010 and this Dec/Jan has been the toughest stretch yet. It all ended well.
Yes, it's monopoly money and I didn't risk more than I can afford to lose. So if I get the account to $500,000 before it tanks, I've just lost $500 of my own money.
We will see how it goes.
Whether you trade this way or not,, it works thus far. Anyway, it's only until it gets to $2,000,000 than I'm cutting it off.
Hotch
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Well you've lost $1723.3 in your ponzi scheme, of course, that's not your money I guess, so you can ignore that.
You've lost $1809.3 trading the original system.
Now you've changed it marginally, shakily made $652.3 and claim it's working.
You also bought (or obtained) tom's EA which leads me to believe (even more so) that there' no malice in your actions, but should point out how silly you're being.
You've lost $1809.3 trading the original system.
Now you've changed it marginally, shakily made $652.3 and claim it's working.
You also bought (or obtained) tom's EA which leads me to believe (even more so) that there' no malice in your actions, but should point out how silly you're being.
wackypete2
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Peter
Hoggums
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You know at 3 losers in a row will wipe you out. So your strategy is to hope that doesn’t happen. There are no safeguards in place to stop it happening.
This is not a strategy, you are gambling. Your $2m relies on the fact that you will be lucky from now until you get the money. You have no idea on what the return is, how long it will take, how likely 3 losers in a row actually are in a year let alone up to the $2m.
This is basic information you need to research. Let’s say your system would have blown up once in the last 10 years (but you don’t know that because you haven’t done enough backtesting!) therefore we’ll say you have a 10% chance of wipeout in a year – if you trade it for 5 years then the chances of losing all your money is 40% before the time is up. Trade it for 10 years – it’s 65%. Would you trade a system for 10 years that you know only has a 35% chance of success?
But you don’t know. You don’t know how long £2m is going to take. You don’t know how likely you are to get there. What if you get to $1.5m in 3 years and you get the 3 losers – how sick will you feel then?
This is why people fail at trading. Their strategies are based on assumptions and hope, they ignore the risks and deluisionally believe they will be lucky.
You will only ever succeed when you’ve studied your strategy, understand the risks & rewards and have plans in place for worst case scenarios.
tony1979
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It's a pile of cr@p - how can you think he's on to something if you're allegedly a "professional trader". I think someone must be telling porkies!
I won't feel sick at all because I started with $500 and I have two other working systems so no big deal. It won't be fun but I've lost $500 before so it wouldn't be the first time.
By the way, I've had three losers in a row already and made it. You don't realize that within the losses there are wins being made from the hedging. To a degree, these wins are off-setting the losses. True, it gets the DD out there but it still managed to stay afloat and bounced back.
