ForexMorningTrade System

[wiseambitions]

9.30 seemed to bring good news for the pound in the direction of the FMT signals, but unfortunately even 65SL got stopped out before it went the right way.

Results of the last 200 trades (a bit more than 12 months - half of which was back testing and half of which was forward testing). 06.30 starts, until last week! And remember these cover every day with signals. The week before and after Christmas even, and all of Easter!

40/40 + 2000
28/40 +1908
35/40/BE@20 +1755
43/65/BE@20 +1750
10/40 +1320

If it carried on in this vein then what are we grumbling about?

 

[ktyong]

Cheers Euro_d, at least someone is paying attention in class this morning

@podberry, just to analysis the reason for not trading because of low volume. If you look at the daily chart of GBPUSD, yesterday volume is comparable to average trading days. Is that volume accurate for forex trading?

I am staying out this week until next monday but just try to figure out how we know the volume is low as the chart clearly show otherwise.

 

[forexsniper]

holiday trading...there is no right or wrong. i think it can go either way, and everyone needs to make up their own mind on how they want to trade.

i think the most important thing is that you stay consistent - whichever you choose. if you pick and choose sporadically - that is when you stuff up your trading plan.

for me personally - i don't like trading if volume is lower than normal - so i personally will not trade uk or us bank holidays. today was not a bank holiday and not living in the uk - i would've never guessed that bankers are on holiday - so i'll take today's loss as part of my trading plan.

 

[wiseambitions]

holiday trading...there is no right or wrong. i think it can go either way, and everyone needs to make up their own mind on how they want to trade.

i think the most important thing is that you stay consistent - whichever you choose. if you pick and choose sporadically - that is when you stuff up your trading plan.

for me personally - i don't like trading if volume is lower than normal - so i personally will not trade uk or us bank holidays. today was not a bank holiday and not living in the uk - i would've never guessed that bankers are on holiday - so i'll take today's loss as part of my trading plan.

Well said. You never know every day at 06.15 whether it's going to be a good trade.

By the laws of probability it would be reasonable to expect that half the trades would turn out right (subject to the TP and SL set being sensible).

"If you pick and choose sporadically - that is when you stuff up your trading plan." That is why I think you need to stick with settings you are comfortable with. I have noticed for example that one set will have 2 bad months then 2 very good months and is still capable of being up with the best in the longer term measurement.

By sticking to rules it eliminates human emotion, and that is one of the big points about FMT. I can cope with the occasional loss from trading in conditions like these, but still believe FMT will redeem itself admirably.

This time next year we'll all be millionaires

 

[Jashfx]

Cheers Euro_d, at least someone is paying attention in class this morning

DITTO to BOTH of YOU!!!!! PPl were saying similar things in January and then look what happened in FEB and MARCH. As long as FMT continues to produce more pips over the long run than it loses, which it has been doing since its release last year September then there is no cause for concern.

Wises's continous stats of recent 100trades for all sorts of combinations proves this, even through the bad patches. So if we can somehow minimize some of those bad patches (ie; by either not trading, reducing risk, or perhaps even changing your strategy for that period only) it will almost surely improve results.

In my opinion and ofcourse its just an opinion (but based on years of experience)
1) Do not ever trade on UK/US holidays
2) Non-Farm Payroll (generally is a No Trading Day) -- but FMT is fine to trade it.
3) April and August (markets have, and Im sure will continue to for a long time, traded thinly): Deviate from STD FMT/Hammy settings (or whatever settings you are using) and Trade 30/20/40 or Wise's 28/40, no BE.
4)For Jan(3 weeks), FEB, March, May, June, July, Sept, Oct, Nov. Stick to your chosen strategy and reap the rewards.
5)December --- GO TO THE BEACH and if you live in NH as oppose to SH, Buy yourself a plane ticket with money made from FMT and GO TO THE BEACH!!!

 

[chrisheath]

@podberry, just to analysis the reason for not trading because of low volume. If you look at the daily chart of GBPUSD, yesterday volume is comparable to average trading days. Is that volume accurate for forex trading?

I am staying out this week until next monday but just try to figure out how we know the volume is low as the chart clearly show otherwise.

Hi ktyong,

Just FYI next Monday is May Bank Holiday in UK - if you're not trading this week, you may consider avoiding that as well. (We all have our opinions, of course! ) (PS I'm on the Pimms all week here in Blighty, talk of some marriage or other....)

Regards, Chris

 

[israel4C]

three consecutive losses and a no trade on my demo account.

but then I traded against the common consensus of not
trading on Friday and lost that bet. Monday was no trade signal Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning lost again.

Friday: -48.12
Monday: No Trade
Tuesday: -44.88
Wednesday: -44.66

your taking big losses each trade, why not put your stop closer or reassess the system your running.

 

[LIQUIDKNUCKLES]

holiday trading...there is no right or wrong. i think it can go either way, and everyone needs to make up their own mind on how they want to trade.

i think the most important thing is that you stay consistent - whichever you choose. if you pick and choose sporadically - that is when you stuff up your trading plan.

for me personally - i don't like trading if volume is lower than normal - so i personally will not trade uk or us bank holidays. today was not a bank holiday and not living in the uk - i would've never guessed that bankers are on holiday - so i'll take today's loss as part of my trading plan.

How Would U Know That Its a Bank Holiday this week and stuff? Cuz Im like U, I dnt Like Trading Fmt When There's Less Volume than normal. If I can Just Find Out Regularly That Would Be the greatest thing

 

[Cobber]

Well cobber, the whole of April FMT had us going in the right direction bar one S/L until this week, Volume, Volume, Volume. So you are implying FMT is not working ?

Anyway, I am tired of shouting off the rooftops about Holidays, each to his own

No I'm not saying its broken.

But maybe you should be asking Mark Fric that question as he has gone against tue philosphy if it ain't broke don't fix it, by changing his settings significantly.

 

[ktyong]

Hi ktyong,

Just FYI next Monday is May Bank Holiday in UK - if you're not trading this week, you may consider avoiding that as well. (We all have our opinions, of course! ) (PS I'm on the Pimms all week here in Blighty, talk of some marriage or other....)

Regards, Chris

Thanks Christ, I am staying out next Monday.

 

[Jashfx]

How Would U Know That Its a Bank Holiday this week and stuff? Cuz Im like U, I dnt Like Trading Fmt When There's Less Volume than normal. If I can Just Find Out Regularly That Would Be the greatest thing

GOOGLE is a wonderful thing LOL

http://www.year-planner-calendar.wanadoo.co.uk/2011-public-holidays.htm (UK)
http://www.year-planner-calendar.wanadoo.co.uk/2012-public-holidays.htm (UK)

http://www.buyusa.gov/uk/en/us_bank_holidays.html (US 2011 and 2012)

 

[mail2thomasp]

Hi. I´m new to this forum, just bought the EA last week and my first impresion is good but I have allso done an observation! The april loses is primarily short trades and if we look at the daily chart for april it´s clearly in an uptrend, actually new highs for the Year was made in april. That tells me that the EA don´t take the long term trend in consideration. I will say that making 40 pips against a strong daily trend is against the odds. Any comment on manually prevent the EA to trade against the long term trend?

 

[Jashfx]

No I'm not saying its broken.

But maybe you should be asking Mark Fric that question as he has gone against tue philosphy if it ain't broke don't fix it, by changing his settings significantly.

Mark's changes came about by improved performance using the new settings over last 2 years. Prior to these 2 years the 40/40, no BE strategy produced better results.

I think this goes to show that Market conditions DO CHANGE and hence we should act accordingly.

Its not to say though that the indicators used to determine price direction have become flawed, just that conditions have changed and hence a new TP, SL, BE and BE add pips has been introduced.

He has not changed anything based solely on recent occurences (as some people believe) but on an extensive analysis spanning the last 2 years.

 

[tkbieber]

I am a recent convert to believing in the power of all UK and US holidays - and will no longer be trading any of these days. I wonder why Mark doesn't practice this in his journal? I think it would dramatically improve FMT performance.

What I'm confused about is I compared last year at this time to this year and I saw no abnormality with how FMT would have traded. Is this year just a "fluke" and everyone is blaming it on a holiday?

 

[wiseambitions]

What I'm confused about is I compared last year at this time to this year and I saw no abnormality with how FMT would have traded. Is this year just a "fluke" and everyone is blaming it on a holiday?

I agree with you.

Taking the Monday, 28th March 2010 through to Friday 9th April, two full weeks which contained the Easter weekend

Results in my tests, were
Deserteagle +172
35/40/BE@20 +100
40/40 +40
10/40 +20
28/40 +60

The thing that's different about this time round is that we have two UK bank holiday weekends in succession.

We were reasonably profitable Monday to Thursday prior to Good Friday, then we've had potentially 3 losses and for FMT to get back to the results shown above is impossible now for most sets even if tomorrow and Friday were good days. Until those numbers come in, Deserteagle is down 44, 35/40/BE@20 is down 85, 40/40 is 0, 10/40 is -40 and 28/40 is -36. New FMT (35/45 + BE@25 +5) is down 95 since the Monday prior to Easter.

Someone else has suggested here that overall volume is relatively stable, although a Canary Wharf commuter has said few people seem to be going to work this week, and if the financial centres of London (there and around Bank) are quiet then conditions are abnormal and normal patterns on the charts are not happening.

We'll soon be back on track.

 

[tkbieber]

Hi. I´m new to this forum, just bought the EA last week and my first impresion is good but I have allso done an observation! The april loses is primarily short trades and if we look at the daily chart for april it´s clearly in an uptrend, actually new highs for the Year was made in april. That tells me that the EA don´t take the long term trend in consideration. I will say that making 40 pips against a strong daily trend is against the odds. Any comment on manually prevent the EA to trade against the long term trend?

Historically, the EA (so far) has not been smart enough to think and reason regarding trends and such. It's very simple minded and rather brainless. Hence, it only averages 70% win rate over a 12-month span and can only manage to give you a fairly good return over a years time as appose to an extraordinarily good return.

 

[hammy66]

FMT for me this morning, (45-35-25-5), Forex.Com-UK

6:15 start, long signal, hit SL -45 pips
6:30 start, long signal, hit SL -45 pips
6:45 start, long signal, hit SL -23 pips (half lots)

total today -113 pips..

weekly total -222 pips ..ouch !

a wierd move in today's market, but wrong direction for us again

 

[LIQUIDKNUCKLES]

GOOGLE is a wonderful thing LOL

http://www.year-planner-calendar.wanadoo.co.uk/2011-public-holidays.htm (UK)
http://www.year-planner-calendar.wanadoo.co.uk/2012-public-holidays.htm (UK)

http://www.buyusa.gov/uk/en/us_bank_holidays.html (US 2011 and 2012)

Thanks!

 

[chiprec]

To sum up can we conclude that indicators have a better chance of being wrong than right during periods of low volume as have been witnessed in the periods mentioned.
Some time back someone in this thread said he was going to trade opposite of FMT during holiday periods....wonder if he followed up on that.

 

[barebud]

Historically, the EA (so far) has not been smart enough to think and reason regarding trends and such. It's very simple minded and rather brainless. Hence, it only averages 70% win rate over a 12-month span and can only manage to give you a fairly good return over a years time as appose to an extraordinarily good return.

Should this guy be allowed to continually (overtly and backhandedly) his *******ized FMT on this forum? This is an FMT forum, not a TKBEIBER *******ized FMT rip off forum...