ForexMorningTrade System

[RedGuerrilla]

Stats for 02-10-2011
(sorry I'm behind . . .)


'Live' Accounts:

FMT 4.2, FXSolutions, dealing desk, Short/Break Even, 1.6094, 1.6094 0.0 pips
My stats since 11-08-2010: 14 No Trades, 18 Break Evens, 19 Losses, 17 Profits, Total: -186.0 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP

FMT 4.2, IBFX, non-dealing desk, Short/Profit, 1.60948, 1.60596, +35.2 pips
My stats since 01-04-2010: 7 No Trades, 6 Break Evens, 7 Loss, 8 Profits, Total: -10.8 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP



Demo Accounts:

FMT 4.2, non-dealing desk brokers, 4:Short/Profit, 1:No Trade
PFG Best, 0.0
FOREX.com, 1.60949, 1.60596, +35.3
FXCM, 1.60953, 1.60579, +37.4
Alpari(US), 1.60957, 1.60604, +35.3
FXDD, 1.60947, 1.60592, +35.5



Testing new tweaked settings, based on back testing. For more details, see Post #5659, page 708:

FMT 4.2 EA, GBPUSD M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips
6:15 start, no trade, 0.0 pips ... :-|
My stats since 01-20-2011: Total: +57.3 pips



Testing other systems, subject to back testing.
Lost my back testing system, and I don't have time right now to get it back.

FMT 4.2 EA, GBPUSD M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips
13:15 start, no trade, 0.0 pips ... :-|
My stats since 02-01-2011: Total: -103.5 pips

FMT 4.2 EA, EURUSD M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips
13:15 start, no trade, 0.0 pips ... :-|
My stats since 02-01-2011: Total: +90.7 pips

FMT 4.2 EA, EURUSD/USDCHF M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=20, TP=7, BE=0
23:00 start, EURUSD, sell trade, 1.35977, 1.36177, hit SL= -20.0 pips
23:00 start, USDCHF, no trade, 0.0 pips
Total for both trades: -20.0 pips ... :-(
My stats since 02-03-2011: Total: -43.96 pips

 

[deserteagle]

For those interested in testing the long vs. short theory, why not set up 2 FMT charts on the same account (with different magic numbers). Change the Common parameter on 1 to Long only and the other to Short only. You could then vary the risk, TP or SL separately. Only one would trigger each day so you don't need to be concerned about margin impact.

This is a good point, there is not need to change the code. I will use it in backtesting.
Thanks for your comment.

 

[zorba_g]

There were 60 pips there for the taking, prior to 09.30 UK news which smashed it by 50 fairly promptly.

And oh, the number of people thinking of quitting on this and other boards. They'd have been saying this several times in the last 3 or 4 years if FMT were then available, so what's new?

Returns in the last 100 trades:
@ 40/40 720
@ 35/40+BE 720
@ 43/65+BE as per Deserteagle 874

Returns in the last 50 trades
@ 40/40 0
@ 35/40+BE minus 90
@ 43/65 +BE plus 123

The last 50 and 100 trades obviously include Christmas

We need to keep an eye on the fact that the original FMT recommendation of 40/40 was well advised and to check whether the current setting 35/40+BE is really any better. I know Marc may have long term back tests to prove this, but recent conditions are not typical.

Even 10tp/40sl is a steady set for those who want fewer losing days.

Perhaps a good strategy would be to split the stops, to get a reasonable average, due to the fickle market conditions we are going through.

A good breakdown. Using recommended money management i.e. staking 2% per trade (or any fixed percentage for that matter), original 40/40 comes out on top!

 

[Jashfx]

Valentines is over -- Stop flirting with my STOP and SHOOT --- UP!!!!!

 

[RedGuerrilla]

Stats for 02-11-2011
(sorry I'm behind . . .)


'Live' Accounts:

FMT 4.2, FXSolutions, dealing desk, Short/Profit, 1.6036, 1.6000, +35.0 pips
My stats since 11-08-2010: 14 No Trades, 18 Break Evens, 19 Losses, 18 Profits, Total: -151.0 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP

FMT 4.2, IBFX, non-dealing desk, Short/Profit, 1.60360, 1.60011, +34.9 pips
My stats since 01-04-2010: 7 No Trades, 6 Break Evens, 7 Loss, 9 Profits, Total: +24.1 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP



Demo Accounts:

FMT 4.2, non-dealing desk brokers, 5:Short/Profit
PFG Best, 1.60363, 1.60008, +35.5
FOREX.com, 1.60360, 1.60002, +35.8
FXCM, 1.60380, 1.60002, +37.8
Alpari(US), 1.60356, 1.60005, +35.1
FXDD, 1.60359, 1.59994, +35.5



Testing new tweaked settings, based on back testing. For more details, see Post #5659, page 708:

FMT 4.2 EA, GBPUSD M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips
6:15 start, no trade, 0.0 pips ... :-|
My stats since 01-20-2011: Total: +57.3 pips



Testing other systems, subject to back testing.
Lost my back testing system, and I don't have time right now to get it back.

FMT 4.2 EA, GBPUSD M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips
13:15 start, sell trade, 1.59910, 1.60308, hit SL= -39.8 pips ... :-(
My stats since 02-01-2011: Total: -143.3 pips

FMT 4.2 EA, EURUSD M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips
13:15 start, sell trade, 1.35244, 1.35644, hit SL= -40.0 pips ... :-(
My stats since 02-01-2011: Total: +50.7 pips



Stats for 02-13-2011



FMT 4.2 EA, EURUSD/USDCHF M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=20, TP=7, BE=0
23:00 start, EURUSD, sell trade, 1.35244, 1.35180, +6.40 pips
23:00 start, USDCHF, no trade, 0.0 pips
Total for both trades: +6.40 pips ...
My stats since 02-03-2011: Total: -37.6 pips

 

[deserteagle]

Out at BE.

 

[Pavil]

Me Too.
BE: 12
BE+5

 

[JWBear]

There is some good resistance at these levels. I kept my tp low today @ 12 pips.

 

[Icepop]

I got out with a +19. 6 below my TP of 25 but happy!!

 

[Tenapenny]

Out at BE.

Same as.

 

[Latintrader72]

hi
-40 pips

 

[wiseambitions]

-40
grrrrrrr

65SL without the BE reset still wouldnt have been any good today

 

[PipZombie]

Hi, I see lots of talk around Buys vs Sells, and have done some analysis for 2009 and 2010. I also think it is intereresting to look at Win Rate by day of the week:

Win Ratio by Buy/Sell position:

Num Buys Wins Lose Buy Wins% Buy Loses%
2009 91 65 26 71% 29%
Num Sells Wins Lose Sell Wins% Sell Loses%
2009 93 73 20 78% 22%


Num Buys Wins Lose Buy Wins% Buy Loses%
2010 106 81 25 76% 24%
Num Sells Wins Lose Sell Wins% Sell Loses%
2010 87 73 14 84% 16%

2009 Year by Day of Week:
Win Lose Total Win% Lose%
Mon 26 7 33 79% 21%
Tues 23 11 34 68% 32%
Weds 30 14 44 68% 32%
Thurs 29 5 34 85% 15%
Fri 30 9 39 77% 23%

2010 Year by Day of Week:
Win Lose Total Win% Lose%
Mon 33 11 44 75% 25%
Tues 28 8 36 78% 22%
Weds 29 7 36 81% 19%
Thurs 32 7 39 82% 18%
Fri 32 6 38 84% 16%

Settings for the above are TP 30/SL 48, which I found optimum for a fairly smooth equity growth curve and a win ratio of 75% 2009 and 80% 2010. Note also that I take some discretionary trades (eg Buy if Momentum > 99.9x and CCI positive etc) so my trades aren't 100% according to FMT rules, and also I shut off trades the last two weeks of December.

So in terms of win rates of Buy vs Sell, I find a 7% favourable bias for Sells over Buys over the 2 year period, but I wouldn't leave Buy trades as they still contribute to growth. However, I do see that Thursdays and Fridays have been consistently high in terms of win rate, so I load Thursday/Friday trades with extra risk size. I've found so far in 2011, Thursdays have had 100% win rate and Fridays 67% win rate (obviously not much data so far though). I do agree that Sells tend to reach TP faster than Buys, due to the nature of the market and panic selling vs cautious buying. So my 'safest' FMT signal seems to be a Sell on a Thursday or Friday. Food for thought, good luck to all with FMT, I personally think it's a great system assuming you trade according to the rules and don't be tempted to 'tweak' as you go along, there's a setting that everyone is comfortable with, just do your own testing and make sure you understand the risks from the odd 'bad run'

I would not get hung up on buy vs sell. If you look at a monthly chart we have been in a downtrend on the GBPUSD for the last 2 1/2 years so naturally one could say there is a bias. We are only trading with a small stoploss and on the 15 minute chart so that could be a slippery slope introducing a bais for buy or sell only trades.....the system works, just trade it according to the rules. That is my opinion only take it for what is worth.

 

[Icepop]

I think the prospect of... 10:30am GBP BOE Gov King Speaks, ruined things for today. Good for those day traders who were banking on the pound falling though!

 

[wiseambitions]

I think the prospect of... 10:30am GBP BOE Gov King Speaks, ruined things for today. Good for those day traders who were banking on the pound falling though!

But at 10.30 had he yet even opened his mouth????? Whatever happened it caused a lot of sell orders to be initiated.

 

[Icepop]

But at 10.30 had he yet even opened his mouth????? Whatever happened it caused a lot of sell orders to be initiated.

LOL, must be just his presence!!

 

[catfish911]

Wow, that was some sudden drop! What were we talking about yesterday? Oh yes, are Buys riskier than Sells? And I said a bit maybe but I'd still trade them... Out at -48 today, two losses and one win this week. Better luck tomorrow, all

 

[wiseambitions]

I would not get hung up on buy vs sell. If you look at a monthly chart we have been in a downtrend on the GBPUSD for the last 2 1/2 years so naturally one could say there is a bias. We are only trading with a small stoploss and on the 15 minute chart so that could be a slippery slope introducing a bais for buy or sell only trades.....the system works, just trade it according to the rules. That is my opinion only take it for what is worth.

I don't think, seeing as more long trades open than short trades, (about 59% of the last 100 were longs), that the long term downtrend comes into it.
The answer is probably contained in the fact that the dollar is the safe haven to which everyone (still!) runs when bad news and fear arise. The pound (albeit the share price of the United Kingdom), benefits more in times of good news and tolerance to risk. Bad news and fear are contagious, good news is always shorter in supply, therefore to me the rate of change is faster in times when the dollar goes up than when the pound goes up.

Maybe I am still seeing it too simply, but I think it is good to remember sterling currency is a barometer of risk aversion

 

[Adamus]

I don't think, seeing as more long trades open than short trades, (about 59% of the last 100 were longs), that the long term downtrend comes into it.
The answer is probably contained in the fact that the dollar is the safe haven to which everyone (still!) runs when bad news and fear arise. The pound (albeit the share price of the United Kingdom), benefits more in times of good news and tolerance to risk. Bad news and fear are contagious, good news is always shorter in supply, therefore to me the rate of change is faster in times when the dollar goes up than when the pound goes up.

Maybe I am still seeing it too simply, but I think it is good to remember sterling currency is a barometer of risk aversion

I like your theory about rising and falling quicker or slower. It makes great sense. Everyone knows that markets drop faster than they climb, especially stocks, but I thought for a long time that the currency markets were immune to this effect and were truly symmetrical.

However I could easily believe that the effect is there - that going long the USD and going short the USD are not symmetrical behaviours.

The proof would lie in the behaviour of USD/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/CAD. Do these rise much more sharply than they fall? I don't know about USD/CHF and USD/CAD but I have always been wary of USD/JPY because I find it more unpredicable. I would like to think I would recognise a market that likes to shoot upwards, but I can't say that's what the USD/JPY feels like.

 

[GumRai]

I think what he meant by Shorting is that Market take a while to RISE but DROP in an instant (or rather much faster than in UP Trend)

Thats the Law of Gravity.

BTW, I love this FMT Journal

I think that you are missing the point.
With shares, commodities, indices etc there is only one trend, up or down.
But with forex we are trading currency pairs. So with GBPUSD for example, while the GBP is trending up, the USD is trending down. So while one is dropping in an instant, the other is also rising in an instant.
It is only convention that has decided that this currency pair is GBPUSD, it could quite easily have been USDGBP and then you would be saying that the market may take a while to DROP but RISE in an instant

Does that make sense?