ForexMorningTrade System

[doepi3]

I dont like today's price behaviour. Any 'FMT effect' has seemingly run out of steam by now (nearly 3 hrs after entry) and we are awaiting UK employment news which might not be helpful to a long trade

Yip, the news killed the trade..!

 

[bluedancer]

geese my spelling is bad today -- too early in the morning

very should be every, precious = previous,

LOL geese should be geez

btw you can edit your post for spelling errors, go to your post and click on bottom right icon

 

[bluedancer]

I have to say I am losing confidence in FMT after nearly 5 months of trading with it, putting in huge amount of time deciphering good from bad trades and seeing so many losing trades that I have to manage or figure out how to stay out of. I feel like I am starting to gamble, as this setup seems like I am trading blind. There is just not enough information to bet on a 35-40 pip trade based on 2 lagging indicators, at a time of day before the trend for the day is established, and to end up hoping that the timing is right with the indies to get a win. I don't want to trade blind, so I am stopping my live trading with FMT and putting it back on demo and will work on another trading system.

 

[LIQUIDKNUCKLES]

I have to say I am losing confidence in FMT after nearly 5 months of trading with it, putting in huge amount of time deciphering good from bad trades and seeing so many losing trades that I have to manage or figure out how to stay out of. I feel like I am starting to gamble, as this setup seems like I am trading blind. There is just not enough information to bet on a 35-40 pip trade based on 2 lagging indicators, at a time of day before the trend for the day is established, and to end up hoping that the timing is right with the indies to get a win. I don't want to trade blind, so I am stopping my live trading with FMT and putting it back on demo and will work on another trading system.

Maybe its just a bad month...

 

[wiseambitions]

I have to say I am losing confidence in FMT after nearly 5 months of trading with it....... I don't want to trade blind, so I am stopping my live trading with FMT and putting it back on demo and will work on another trading system.

I have studied backtests for 3 or 4 years and observed similar periods. Particularly early February 2008. I don't know what conditions caused 6 consecutive losses then, but the history of FMT has been one of steady growth, but with the occasional bad patch.

I don't know what may have changed to kill off the inertia of any trades FMT has put us in, but was of interest to me to read in a London paper on train yesterday that IG Index, the largest UK spread betting firm, finds it is opening up lots of new accounts, but the amount of business being traded through its books is suffering. This they ascribe to reduced volatility in the markets and people generally holding off.

Interesting quote from a fund manager yesterday, (albeit concerning equities)...'Bull markets have always had to climb a wall of worry".

You just have to carry on a bit longer, I think there is a sweet spot somewhere but we don't know when we'll find it.

In my analysis of the last 100 trading days, 40SL in all cases, no resetting to BE.

1) at 40TP, up by 320 pips
2) at 35TP, up by 425 pips
3) at 28TP, up by 760 pips

including in all cases the bad Christmas period, which, if you avoided, might have advantaged you by an extra 200 pips approx.

 

[kgk]

I have to say I am losing confidence in FMT after nearly 5 months of trading with it, putting in huge amount of time deciphering good from bad trades and seeing so many losing trades ....

Hi Blue - Do you mind sharing how many winners/losers you have had over the past 5 months trading with FMT?

I bought the system in DEC'10 and so far 60% have been losing trades, so far.

Thanks.

 

[hammy66]

FMT for me today ...

6:00 start, buy trade hit SL=-44
6:15 start, buy trade hit SL=-44
6:30 start, buy trade hit SL=-44
6:45 start, buy trade hit SL=-44

well I knew this could happen, easy come easy go !!..

hope FMT gets back on track soon ..

better luck tomorrow !...

 

[billcurry]

Bad day today. FMT went into a long trade and hit my SL at -45 pips

I have a demo account running with Hammy's settings that got the same exact results as well, hitting the -44 pip SL on all of them.

FMT seems to have a lot of trouble between November-February. I'm hoping that perseverance will eventually pay off, but so far January is looking like a losing month.

 

[JDJD88]

I have to say I am losing confidence in FMT after nearly 5 months of trading with it, putting in huge amount of time deciphering good from bad trades and seeing so many losing trades that I have to manage or figure out how to stay out of. I feel like I am starting to gamble, as this setup seems like I am trading blind. There is just not enough information to bet on a 35-40 pip trade based on 2 lagging indicators, at a time of day before the trend for the day is established, and to end up hoping that the timing is right with the indies to get a win. I don't want to trade blind, so I am stopping my live trading with FMT and putting it back on demo and will work on another trading system.

Wouldn't it be helpful if the author / seller of the system we purchased would step in here with a comment?

Yes BlueDancer - I understand your caution and am getting the same feelings. While making the decision to step out should be based on some time period experience that is "statistically significant" - defining that period is the trick. In this case, it's simply your gut telling you you've lost enough money - and yes, that could be enough.

I am a new FMT user - and have traded - really "traded" - for approx 3 years - with a wealth of systems (multiple indicators, various stop arrangements, backtesting, etc,) and of course relying ultimately on candle movement. I have written my own algorithms, use different paltforms, etc.

With the FMT - I have applied this experience by - 1. Not allowing it to enter a trade if my other indicators suggested a failure and 2. Pulling the plug and closing a trade if it looked like it was going against me - sometimes cutting me to a small ,loss, or a small profit - or - in a case or 2 - missing out on the ultimate larger 35 pip profit.

However, while I have saved my self from some meaningful losses, my error in logic here is that I purchased an automated trading system / EA - and should not be intervening at all. The system either performs as sold to us - or it does not.
Further, my qualifying (or second-guessing) FMT's decision with my own indicators - may at times fly in the face of FMT's primary orientation - breakout.

I always trade a live account - and always from 1 to 100 minis per position - or up to $100.00 US per pip - this is the way I earn my living (or not!). Losing hundreds of pips as some of you have could equate to tens of thousands of dollars of losses for me.

So - the bottom line - I would welcome the input and guidance from FMT's creator, in this forum. That's where the greatest wisdom should lie - and possibly - new tweaks to the EA to make it more effective (?). I am ignorant and seek guidance greater than my own. Just my humble opinion and request for input.

 

[billcurry]

Mark's trading journal says he's on holiday this week but will return on Sunday. Hopefully he'll check this thread and give us some words of encouragement.

 

[JDJD88]

Mark's trading journal says he's on holiday this week but will return on Sunday. Hopefully he'll check this thread and give us some words of encouragement.

Yes - that would be the most responsible, customer-supportive approach, wouldn't it?

 

[GumRai]

Bad day today. FMT went into a long trade and hit my SL at -45 pips

I have a demo account running with Hammy's settings that got the same exact results as well, hitting the -44 pip SL on all of them.

FMT seems to have a lot of trouble between November-February. I'm hoping that perseverance will eventually pay off, but so far January is looking like a losing month.

January so far has given 3 wins, 3 losses and 5 break-even trades
Disappointing, but not terrible.
Still with 8 trading days left in January, it's a bit early to call it a losing month.

 

[Magicpip]

Backtesting shows similar results. December - January last year were about the same performance. I stopped trading FMT when Turbo came out because Turbo has some better indicators and more options than FMT.

Stopped trading live from Dec. 17- Jan 9. I stayed out on the 16th because of the U.S. holiday.

I also found that earlier trading times are better than 6:30. When trading with an EA, I've learned to rely on the pros who are more experienced. I read other forums, such as Donnaforex, Forex Peace Army, etc. to see what others recommend using the same EA and read up on new EA's to learn from other people's suggestions on the holidays/bank holidays/time settings/etc.

I believe Turbo has some better indicators. There were no trade signals on the 17th and 18th with Turbo. If you stayed out of the market during the holiday break and still not doing well, I would recommend reading Donnaforex thread for FMT for other suggestions on trading times, etc. Run some backtesting using different settings/times. Read through Turbo's thread to compare wins/losses with FMT.

 

[bluedancer]

Hi Blue - Do you mind sharing how many winners/losers you have had over the past 5 months trading with FMT?

I bought the system in DEC'10 and so far 60% have been losing trades, so far.

Thanks.

It's complicated, plus would take me a lot of time I don't have just now, since I often changed my entry and exit, better to see results from Mark's result page.

 

[Domunique]

Hi, is there a way of setting up a BE trade that kicks in automatically, i.e. without having to watch the charts?

 

[JohnnyBme]

Hi, is there a way of setting up a BE trade that kicks in automatically, i.e. without having to watch the charts?

You should have received the PDF manual with your EA. It explains all the settings, including how to set up a B/E. Sign in to the member area to download.:clover:

 

[FXCO]

I have just been using TMT, how did you guys do with FMT yesterday?

 

[bouzo132]

I have just been using TMT, how did you guys do with FMT yesterday?

not so good, it was a loss.

 

[RedGuerrilla]

'Live' Accounts:

01-19-2011, FMT 4.2, Long/Loss, FXSolutions, dealing desk, 1.6023, 1.5983, -40.0
My stats since 11-08-2010: 11 No Trades, 14 Break Evens, 16 Losses, 12 Profits, Total: -236.0 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP

01-18-2011, FMT 4.2, Long/Loss, IBFX, non-dealing desk, 1.60230, 1.59828, -40.2
My stats since 01-04-2010: 4 No Trades, 3 Break Evens, 3 Loss, 1 Profits, Total: -89.4 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP



Demo Accounts:

01-19-2011, FMT 4.2, 6: Long/Loss at non-dealing desk brokers:
PFG Best, 1.60228, 1.59824, -40.4
FOREX.com, 1.60233, 1.59822, -41.1
MB Trading, 1.60233, 1.59806, -42.7
FXCM, 1.60233, 1.59832, -40.1
Alpari(US), 1.60228, 1.59823, -40.0
FXDD, 1.60235, 1.59826, -40.9



Modified hammy66's system:
01-19-2010, FMT 4.2 EA, set 5 separate GU M15 Charts each separated by 30 minutes using a different magic number.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: TP=30, SL=44, BE=20, BE+5 pips, UK time zone.

6:00 start, buy trade, hit SL= -44.4 pips
6:30 start, buy trade, hit SL= -46.4 pips
7:00 start, buy trade, hit SL= -44.0 pips
7:30 start, buy trade, hit SL= -45.0 pips
8:00 start, buy trade, hit SL= -44.2 pips

for today -224.0 pips ... :-(

My stats since 01-11-2010: Total: -114.5 pips

It was a blood bath . . . First time worse case happens.



Failing to accurately paper trade is a very common mistake. The trading system must be tested through various market conditions to ensure its future profitability and to gain the confidence of the trader. Although many traders do not paper trade their system, it rarely prevents them from proceeding.

Without reliable statistics about how the system performs, the trader does not know what to expect. After a string of a few losing trades, the trader will become disillusioned with the system. Most traders will stop trading the system and move on to the next “flavor of the month” trading system.

Although a trading system may be profitable in general, it is almost certain that, at some point, the system will sustain losses. This is a fact of life. . . Quoted from http://www.iexpertadvisor.com/ib38.asp



BACK TESTING:


!!!YOU CAN NOT TRUST METATRADER HISTORICAL RESULTS!!! You will get junk . . .


I've been trading FMT now for over 2 months. Nov & Dec are hard months to trade.
But I traded anyway because I wanted to know how robust FMT would be.

I took my real trading data and Mark's real trading data during those two months and compared the data to the my back testing.

I imported M1 data to the MetaTrader platform. The data is free from http://www.forextester.com/data/datasources.html They have good data from 2001 to 2010. They update at the end of every month. For Jan 2011 data, you would have to wait till the month is over.


Here are the real trading results between Mark and my trades using the standard setting:
Test period from 11-08-2010 to 12-31-2010:
System: Total number of trades, Total real trading pips at the end of the test period
RedGuerrilla: 32, -148 pips
Mark Fric: 29, -83 pips


Here are the back tested results for the time period that Mark and I traded in real time using the standard settings:
Test period from 11-08-2010 to 12-31-2010:
System: Total number of trades, Total back tested pips at the end of the test period
Back Test: 25, -30.7 pips


Mark's standard settings: TP=35, SL=40, BE=20, one trade per day at 6:30 UK time.

As you can see, even comparing real trading results with another trader, you're going to get different results because of differences in brokers. But all the trades were in the same direction, sometimes there were no trades or break evens, but never one trade going short while the other going long. But the key point is that the graphs were all very similar. In other words, the best you can hope for with back testing, with good data, is a very good estimate!

Also remember, Mark changed the parameters starting in Nov, to tweak FMT for better performance, which my back testing confirms did help. But these new parameters have only been in real time use for about two and half months.

Anyway, I decided to do my own tweaking. I tried all the ideas I've thinking about during these pass two months. But hammy66's ideas were the best. Because based on my back testing, I think he has the best settings.

I back tested the system that I've been testing on a demo account, where I trade 5 times every 30 minutes, starting at 6:00 UK time. The results were very bad. Plus, it was just too much risk.
But what I found out, thanks to hammy66, was that the best time to trade is at 6:15 UK time.


Here are hammy66's back tested results for both Nov & Dec period, using his settings:
Test period from 11-08-2010 to 12-31-2010:
hammy66's System: Time, Total number of trades, Total pips at the end of the test period
6:00, 23, +148.0 pips
6:15, 26, +237.4 pips
6:30, 25. +7.1 pips
6:45, 26, -38.3
Total: +354.2


Here are hammy66's results from when FMT started back in Aug, using his settings:
Test period from 08-02-2010 to 12-31-2010:
hammy66's System: Time, Total number of trades, Total pips at the end of the test period
6:00, 57, +491.4 pips
6:15, 65, +627.6 pips
6:30, 68, +539.8 pips
6:45, 63, +296.0 pips
Total: +1954.8


hammy66's settings: TP=30, SL=44, BE=20, BE+5 pips, UK time zone.


Here are back tested results of Mark's system compared to his real results from the time he started FMT:
Test period from 08-02-2010 to 12-31-2010:
Mark's System: Time, Total number of trades, Total pips, Real actual pips for this time period
8:30, 68, +526.0 pips, +267.0 pips


hammy66's system is great, but if you have a $2,000 account, that's about a 9% hit on your account, if you hit the worse case of 4 losses in a day.

I want to do what Mark is doing keeping it at 2% for a $2,000 account, which is $40 or 40 pips.
So starting now, I will discontinue testing the 5 trades per every 30 minutes.
Instead, I will start testing the new settings, SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips at 6:15 UK time, for just one trade per day.


Here are the results of back testing these new settings for Nov & Dec:
Test period from 11-08-2010 to 12-31-2010:
System: Total number of trades, Total pips at the end of the test period
Back Test: 26, +234.0 pips


Here are the results of back testing these new settings from Aug:
Test period from 08-02-2010 to 12-31-2010:
System: Total number of trades, Total pips at the end of the test period
Back Test: 65, +580.9 pips


Remember this is only a good estimate. In reality, I might have end up with only half the pips, but the odds are good I would have profits instead of losses. Remember, Nov & Dec are the hardest time to trade, but it's the best time to test EA's in real time.

I've learned you should always back test any EA you want to try, with good data, and confirm the best settings.

Is it possible that many EAs on sale today base their back testing results on MetaTrader historical 'junk' data?
Confirm, confirm, confirm, especially when you're going to put real money on the front line . . .

 

[FXCO]

Cheers, I had a loss with TMT this week as well