ForexMorningTrade System

[Deatil]

I believe news is "baked into the cake" The market being the cake if you will. If FMT says "conditions" are correct I am in. All the FMT is doing is giving us a bias to take a trade it is not winning or losing for us in my opinion.

So you believe news is baked in? Hmmm? so if FMT issued a trade on a Friday before NFP and you had not hit your T/P or B/E you "believe news is "baked into the cake" , sorry but nothing can be further from the truth.

 

[PipZombie]

So you believe news is baked in? Hmmm? so if FMT issued a trade on a Friday before NFP and you had not hit your T/P or B/E you "believe news is "baked into the cake" , sorry but nothing can be further from the truth.

I may not have made my point clear. I mean fundamentals in general give the overall direction of the market (i.e. price action of a pair has fundamentals baked into price). As for news announcements, I believe that news announcements have to be separated into two categories. Those that cause temporary retracements and those that change trend directions. Interest rate cand inflation can change the direction of a pair, all other announcements usually just cause retracements and only if they go against expected. NFP is just silliness when it comes to retail traders like us. A trend of NFP declines or increases will change the direction of the market overtime but will only place a retracement in the market during that day or days, the overall trend usually resumes.

As for your last comment, Yes, I would still believe that fundamentals are still baked into price even if it is ranging. Ranging usually is at at end of a big move where price is consolidating because fundamentally both sides agree where price should be. We need one side or the other gain the majority opinion. I would have to say that if price is ranging inside a 60 pip range there is indecision (i.e. did not hit the 20 pip BE or the 40 pip SL in your example in the last sentence above). So, without wasting too much more webspace with this rebuttle, FMT issimply a bias based on the majority opinion of fundamentals. We have been in an uptrend since January 7th on the pair. Just because there is news on January 17th that is bullish for the GBPUSD it does not mean that particular news announcement caused price to go in that direction. It just means it was in agreement with current sentiment (baked in the cake) of price.

As for news announcements, if you are still in the trade at the time of a news announcement there is a better chance you will get your profit because current sentiment before the annoucement has been driving price and believes in the forecasted news item which is usually will have a result "as expected" or "better than expected" more than 50% of the time, so it is on your side. Leaving it alone is best in the long run because of this. What is even more amazing is that on Oct, Nov and Dec NFP days FMT was a winner. I did not trade it on Jan 2011 but it was a BE day.

 

[ihelfman]

My confidence in FMT is based on statistics from year to three year backtests. I believe that FMT's indicators followed automatically over time, excluding the Christmas to MLK bank holiday, will lead to profits. No doubt our backtests include news days. Perhaps someone will backtest the news days to see whether or how they should be traded. Otherwise, I don't see how any statistical conclusions can be drawn from occasional conjectures on one news day's trade.

I may not have made my point clear. I mean fundamentals in general give the overall direction of the market (i.e. price action of a pair has fundamentals baked into price). As for news announcements, I believe that news announcements have to be separated into two categories. Those that cause temporary retracements and those that change trend directions. Interest rate cand inflation can change the direction of a pair, all other announcements usually just cause retracements and only if they go against expected. NFP is just silliness when it comes to retail traders like us. A trend of NFP declines or increases will change the direction of the market overtime but will only place a retracement in the market during that day or days, the overall trend usually resumes.

As for your last comment, Yes, I would still believe that fundamentals are still baked into price even if it is ranging. Ranging usually is at at end of a big move where price is consolidating because fundamentally both sides agree where price should be. We need one side or the other gain the majority opinion. I would have to say that if price is ranging inside a 60 pip range there is indecision (i.e. did not hit the 20 pip BE or the 40 pip SL in your example in the last sentence above). So, without wasting too much more webspace with this rebuttle, FMT issimply a bias based on the majority opinion of fundamentals. We have been in an uptrend since January 7th on the pair. Just because there is news on January 17th that is bullish for the GBPUSD it does not mean that particular news announcement caused price to go in that direction. It just means it was in agreement with current sentiment (baked in the cake) of price.

As for news announcements, if you are still in the trade at the time of a news announcement there is a better chance you will get your profit because current sentiment before the annoucement has been driving price and believes in the forecasted news item which is usually will have a result "as expected" or "better than expected" more than 50% of the time, so it is on your side. Leaving it alone is best in the long run because of this. What is even more amazing is that on Oct, Nov and Dec NFP days FMT was a winner. I did not trade it on Jan 2011 but it was a BE day.

 

[hammy66]

FMT for me today:

6:00 start, buy trade, hit TP=30 pips
6:15 start, buy trade, hit BE+5 pips
6:30 start, buy trade, hit TP=30 pips
6:45 start, buy trade, hit BE+5 pips

for today +70 pips profit... ;D

 

[billcurry]

FMT for me today:

6:00 start, buy trade, hit TP=30 pips
6:15 start, buy trade, hit BE+5 pips
6:30 start, buy trade, hit TP=30 pips
6:45 start, buy trade, hit BE+5 pips

for today +70 pips profit... ;D

Hammy, would you mind explaining your settings/accounts a bit? Your results look pretty good so far, but the backtests I've run for 2009/2010 with (what I think are) your settings come out looking pretty grim, if not blowing the account. Do you use the EA or manually trade?

 

[catfish911]

Great Job...Nice to see that people are sharing their experiences and stats...my question...no BE stats on those stats?

Hi, no BE position as I'm not adjusting TP and SL after trade open, just letting it run and it always hits one or t'other eventually...

 

[felixmsr]

And that validates why I like happy medium of TP of 35 pips. Somewhere in the middle of the road on both good months and bad months.

I prefer a medium tp as well, I've found that I may miss some big profit trades but over a longer period of time my over all earnings are bigger

 

[wiseambitions]

If a member does not wish to credit the FMT system for a successful trade it still has to be conceded that there is no robot/EA available at least to us amateurs which can automate trade upon the analysis of news even if other automated systems pick the right trend from different indicators.

FMT still gets my vote of thanks for the win and I look forward to many more

In the UK here everything seems to be getting more expensive so the inflation news was no surprise. It just remains to be seen when interest rates will go up and that all underpins sterling.

 

[hammy66]

Hammy, would you mind explaining your settings/accounts a bit? Your results look pretty good so far, but the backtests I've run for 2009/2010 with (what I think are) your settings come out looking pretty grim, if not blowing the account. Do you use the EA or manually trade?

I use the EA, 6:30 GMT. is 1:30 am. where I live, so I cannot trade manually with FMT..

As far as backtests.. I have never made a dime with backtests, have you ?..

Only live trading matters, and FMT is pretty good even at the all 4 start times I use. I demoed those other start times for a month before going live, I am happy so far, but if they start losing I will shut them down, simple as that ! I don't care about backtest results..

My settings are SL=44, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 with all 4 charts, my live brokers are TadawulFX and Forex.com-UK

cheers !..

 

[billcurry]

I use the EA, 6:30 GMT. is 1:30 am. where I live, so I cannot trade manually with FMT..

As far as backtests.. I have never made a dime with backtests, have you ?..

Only live trading matters, and FMT is pretty good even at the all 4 start times I use. I demoed those other start times for a month before going live, I am happy so far, but if they start losing I will shut them down, simple as that ! I don't care about backtest results..

My settings are SL=44, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 with all 4 charts, my live brokers are TadawulFX and Forex.com-UK

cheers !..

Thanks hammy. Do you have a mt4stats.com or myfxbook.com page? It'd be interesting to see how your results differ from Mark's.

I've been really impressed with the results of FMT so far, so I've decided to swing for the fences with a small account ($1000) and the FMT EA. I'll be risking (a ridiculous) 30% per trade, with the settings SL=45, TP=35, BE=20, BE+0. Backtests show these settings to be very profitable, growing a $1000 account into $300K+ within a year.

• Backtest from 2010
• myfxbook.com portfolio
• mt4stats.com portfolio

 

[bouzo132]

Thanks hammy. Do you have a mt4stats.com or myfxbook.com page? It'd be interesting to see how your results differ from Mark's.

I've been really impressed with the results of FMT so far, so I've decided to swing for the fences with a small account ($1000) and the FMT EA. I'll be risking (a ridiculous) 30% per trade, with the settings SL=45, TP=35, BE=20, BE+0. Backtests show these settings to be very profitable, growing a $1000 account into $300K+ within a year.

• Backtest from 2010
• myfxbook.com portfolio
• mt4stats.com portfolio

You do realise that over the course of the year it would be likely to assume that there will be at least 1 situation where you have three losses in a row, ie pretty much blow you acc.
10% per trade would definitely be considered swinging for the fences even!!

 

[billcurry]

You do realise that over the course of the year it would be likely to assume that there will be at least 1 situation where you have three losses in a row, ie pretty much blow you acc.
10% per trade would definitely be considered swinging for the fences even!!

Actually I anticipate several consecutive losing trades. The percentage risked per trade is compounded, so even if I lost three trades in a row I wouldn't blow my account.

For example, with a starting balance of $20,000:

• Loss #1: $6,000, Balance: $14,000
• Loss #2: $4,200, Balance: $9,800
• Loss #3: $2,940, Balance: $6,860
• Loss #4: $2,058, Balance: $4,802
• Loss #5: $1,440, Balance: $3,362
• Loss #6: $1,008, Balance: $2,354
• Loss #7: $706, Balance: $1,648
• Loss #8: $494, Balance: $1,154
• Loss #9: $346, Balance: $808
• Loss #10: $242, Balance: $566
• Etc.

As you can see it would take more than ten consecutive losses to blow the account. I've never seen more than three consecutive losses from FMT (excluding December, which I won't be trading). Three consecutive losing trades is still a 65.7% draw down according to these numbers, but it is easily regained.

 

[Lady Forex]

Numbers will change before entry time but right now looking like a weak short.

 

[Lady Forex]

Looks much better now for a long.

 

[GumRai]

Actually I anticipate several consecutive losing trades. The percentage risked per trade is compounded, so even if I lost three trades in a row I wouldn't blow my account.
(snip)

As you can see it would take more than ten consecutive losses to blow the account. I've never seen more than three consecutive losses from FMT (excluding December, which I won't be trading). Three consecutive losing trades is still a 65.7% draw down according to these numbers, but it is easily regained.

Not so easily regained as you would require 6 wins to get ahead again after 3 losses.
A win rate of 63% would keep you at about B/E trading this way, so it is feasible.

 

[wiseambitions]

Actually I anticipate several consecutive losing trades.. I've never seen more than three consecutive losses from FMT (excluding December, which I won't be trading).

At 40TP in demo account, February 2008, there were 6 losses in a row too. Just as bad as December. I don't know what market conditions caused that experrience. However at TP 30 at that time only 3 of those losses would have occured so it would have been 3 wins 3 losses (but some drawdown due to R/R ratio which would have required at least one extra win to compensate)

I do agree with GumRai, you need a winning percentage well over 50%, eg 65% in order to grow an account when compounding. You might find for example (at a very high % risk, 30TP, 40SL to illustrate my point ) that a win gave you 7.5% growth but a loss gave you 10% reductiion in your capital

 

[Jashfx]

[I do agree with GumRai, you need a winning percentage well over 50%, eg 65% in order to grow an account when compounding. You might find for example (at a very high % risk, 30TP, 40SL to illustrate my point ) that a win gave you 7.5% growth but a loss gave you 10% reductiion in your capital[/QUOTE]

Agree with both wiseambitions and gumrai: One needs to be very careful if risking too much when compounding.

Further to what has been said, I would suggest not working out 2 or 3 % of total balance after very trade. I say this cause if you lose 40 pips then you would probably decrease amount risked therefore if your next win is 35 pips you are in actual fact only making perhaps 30 pips (relatively speaking with reagard to precious loss and capital balance).

We experience a loss most weeks (not all but most) and therefore it would probably be best to risk 2% of the beginning of your weeks balance and stick with that lot size for the entire week. Then recalculate at begining of next week for new lot size. This means that actually when you lose 40pips and then win 35 pips and win 35 pips again, u truly are up 30 pips for that week.

 

[Jashfx]

geese my spelling is bad today -- too early in the morning

very should be every, precious = previous,

 

[RedGuerrilla]

'Live' Accounts:

01-18-2011, FMT 4.2, Long/Profit, FXSolutions, dealing desk, 1.5939, 1.5975, +36.0
My stats since 11-08-2010: 11 No Trades, 14 Break Evens, 15 Losses, 12 Profits, Total: -196 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP

01-18-2011, FMT 4.2, Long/Profit, IBFX, non-dealing desk, 1.59384, 1.59733, +34.9
My stats since 01-04-2010: 4 No Trades, 3 Break Evens, 2 Loss, 1 Profits, Total: -49.2 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP



Demo Accounts:

01-18-2011, FMT 4.2, 6: Long/Profit at non-dealing desk brokers:
PFG Best, 1.59376, 1.59730, +35.4
FOREX.com, 1.59384, 1.59735, +35.1
MB Trading, 1.59369, 1.59734, +36.5
FXCM, 1.59386, 1.59732, +34.6
Alpari(US), 1.59378, 1.59732, +35.4
FXDD, 1.59383, 1.59739, +35.6



Modified hammy66's system:
01-18-2010, FMT 4.2 EA, set 5 separate GU M15 Charts each separated by 30 minutes using a different magic number.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: TP=30, SL=44, BE=20, BE+5 pips, UK time zone.

6:00 start, sell trade, hit TP=+31 pips
6:30 start, sell trade, hit TP=+30.5 pips
7:00 start, sell trade, hit BE+5 pips
7:30 start, sell trade, hit BE+5 pips
8:00 start, sell trade, hit TP=+52.6 pips - Huge spike after release of inflation data, +22.6 pips positive slippage!


for today +124.1 pips ...

My stats since 01-11-2010: Total: +109.5 pips


Wow, gained back all my losses in one day!!!

 

[wiseambitions]

I dont like today's price behaviour. Any 'FMT effect' has seemingly run out of steam by now (nearly 3 hrs after entry) and we are awaiting UK employment news which might not be helpful to a long trade