ForexMorningTrade System

[Jezeckiel]

If you are not using VPS you could just disable the "Expert advisor" tab just before 06H15 the next day and then "enable" it again at 06H16

Yes, I thought about it, but at this time I'm often already at work and, so, I can't do that...

(Sorry if my english is not perfect : I'm french (but I take a shower once a day and I don't eat frogs : that's disgusting...)

Thank you anyway, Podberry...

 

[podberry]

I don't want to seem dim, but Coral has lost me on this one, anyone that could enlighten us folk ?

Hi Jashfx, have you any idea on how to read Corals stats, if so it would be great to have it deciphered as I am trading the 38/38 and would be interested on the best setting on B/E + ???

 

[Jashfx]

I don't want to seem dim, but Coral has lost me on this one, anyone that could enlighten us folk ?

Pod -- what he has done was run a test on one combination using 1 set to find the optimum BE and BE add pips, instead of running different tests to find the optimum TP and and SL. So only vaiables that have been altered are the BE and BE add pips.

So it seems that
38/38/28/4 is the best set (1)
38/38/27/4 (2)
38/38/25/5 (54th best set)
38/38/20/0 (115th best set
38/38/20/10 (last place).

It seems that BE add pips of 4 together with BE at 28, 27, 26 or 25 produces the best result with the combination of 38 tp 38 Sl unaltered.

 

[podberry]

Yes, I thought about it, but at this time I'm often already at work and, so, I can't do that...

(Sorry if my english is not perfect : I'm french (but I take a shower once a day and I don't eat frogs : that's disgusting...)

Thank you anyway, Podberry...

Brilliant answer , sorry I can't help you on that one

 

[Jezeckiel]

I've often thought this could work, but you have a huge R:R ratio, and if you get the market direction wrong or it spikes, it could all end in tears very quickly! - just my view, but great to hear if it works - not sure why you would be using FMT then as your signal though?

Well, I tested my "strategy" with several EAs and I got the best results with FMT, so...
You're right, the R:R ratio is scary, but as long as the final results are good...

 

[deserteagle]

Hi everyone,

Just one question about the EA : is someone knows if there is a way to not open a new trade at 7h15, if the trade of the previous day is not finished (I don't want to have several trades opened simultaneously)

Thank you...

Hi, I think the ea does not open a new order if there is one already open, of course we are talking in the same chart.

 

[Jezeckiel]

Hi, I think the ea does not open a new order if there is one already open, of course we are talking in the same chart.

Hello,

Actually, the EA really opens a new order even if one is already opened. For example, I've got, today, 2 trades running : one opened two days ago, one opened this morning.

Nobody can help me. I'm losing faith...

 

[podberry]

Pod -- what he has done was run a test on one combination using 1 set to find the optimum BE and BE add pips, instead of running different tests to find the optimum TP and and SL. So only vaiables that have been altered are the BE and BE add pips.

So it seems that
38/38/28/4 is the best set (1)
38/38/27/4 (2)
38/38/25/5 (54th best set)
38/38/20/0 (115th best set
38/38/20/10 (last place).

It seems that BE add pips of 4 together with BE at 28, 27, 26 or 25 produces the best result with the combination of 38 tp 38 Sl unaltered.

Thanks Jashfx, what setting are you using at present ?

 

[deserteagle]

At the suggestion of Jashfx, I have run an optimization to see what I would get if I vary the BE and BE+Pips settings on the 38/38 plan proposed by DesertEagle. In this test I only used the most recent longer-run that I have on my best data, i.e. BST 2010.
Method: FMT 4.3 trading at 5:15 GMT = 6:15 UK only. Spread is fixed at 2.5 pips and S/L and T/P are also fixed at 38/38. Data is at 99%, but the opening time on Mondays is different from Alpari UK.
Asking for: Best combination of BE and BE+Pips in a range starting at 20/0 to 30/10, in in one-pip increments, showing total pips earned from 29 March 2010 to 30 Oct 2010.
The test found 121 combinations in the series. To display this graphically, I printed out the graph and wrote the outcome on some of the data points to show the highlights, and scanned the graph back into my system. The attached spreadsheet gives the detailed results, along with that graph. There is no significant difference in the better settings, and we have several that are good.

Mark has laid out the basics of optimization on his site, so there is really no need to go further. We should not pick one-off jagged peaks, but rather something within a range that works reasonably well. The plateaued areas could be good examples, since several BE+pips work well in a sequence of BE values, as noted on the chart. Another way to do it is to look at the spreadsheet and pick the top 10 performers, see if the settings are close and pick something within the range rather than the very top. This is a way to avoid over-optimizing. Some statistics gurus may want to chime in on this also, but we try to keep this simple.
I have sorted the spreadsheet from highest income to lowest so that it's obvious right away which settings flowed to the top.
Meanwhile, I have my Alpari UK demo doing this for the whole period Jan 2010 to present, to see if this comes up with anything different, at 90% accuracy. This will take a few hours. We'll then see if anything else needs to be done for more recent months. I'm also running the same data as this test on 5% compounding to see what happens.

Hi Coral, good job. Just to say I have found value 27BE 5 ADD doing a similar optimization.
I also suggest you to try negative value for parameter BreakEvenAddPips (which I called ADD), and also higher values than 10, for example the optimization range for this parameter could be -10 to 25.

Pod, we are talking about the optimization process in the Strategy Tester, which gives you the best combinations of BE and ADD for a given SL and TP.

Cheers.

 

[RedGuerrilla]

Stats for 05-19-2011



Live Accounts:

FMT 4.3, EA standard settings: 45 SL, 25 BE, +5 BE, 35 TP
6:15 UK Time, FXSolutions..., Long/Break Even...., +5.0, Stats since 11-08-2010: Total= -117.0
6:15 UK Time, IBFX.........., Long/Profit........, +35.1, Stats since 01-04-2011: Total= +76.8
6:15 UK Time, PFG Best......, Long/Break Even...., +4.7, Stats since 03-01-2011: Total= -141.6



Demo Accounts:

FMT 4.3, EA standard settings: 45 SL, 25 BE, +5 BE, 35 TP
6:15 UK Time, PFG Best......, Long/Profit........, +35.2, Stats since 02-01-2011: Total= +222.1
6:15 UK Time, FXCM.........., Long/Profit........, +35.4, Stats since 02-01-2011: Total= +297.3
6:15 UK Time, Alpari(US)...., Long/Profit........, +35.1, Stats since 02-01-2011: Total= +255.5
6:15 UK Time, FXDD.........., Long/Profit........, +35.2, Stats since 02-01-2011: Total= +179.9



Notes:

All pip totals include slippage
FXSolutions is the only dealing desk broker

 

[bottomdollar]

HI guys
I missed the entry today, was it a long or short at the 6.30am timeframe?

 

[wiseambitions]

This trade is not looking good. Yet was entered upon sound FMT principles, and as I have mentioned before there are several other strategies which would indicate today should be a long.

Hold tight guys, and best luck

 

[Euro_d]

This trade is not looking good. Yet was entered upon sound FMT principles, and as I have mentioned before there are several other strategies which would indicate today should be a long.

Hold tight guys, and best luck

Agreed, from a technical perspective, FMT and other indicators this trade was a clear winning long, I saw nothing to the contrary!

The first 30 minutes looked good then it faded, we are now into waiting territory and indicators are turning against us.

Hold tight and good luck to all

 

[Jashfx]

Thanks Jashfx, what setting are you using at present ?

Im still using the recommended FMT settings

45/35/25/5 on one account and then a variation of Hammy settings and my own 40/30/25/5 on another.
And 40/10 on another (although perhaps not for much longer -- serious drawdowns but it was small account knowing full well that a bad run was inevitable but honestly did not think I would see what we have seen over last 3 weeks trading the 40/10)

I do not believe in chopping and changing my combinations. Having said that though, I always change my main account to recommended FMT settings.
Come December (or August) I may split funds and trade a 1:1 ratio.
You would of noticed that everyone who changed from recommended settings to the 38/38/27/5 ended up losing yesterday but those who stuck with FMT settings ended up winning and this will happen if one keeps chopping and changing. 38/38 seems a very good set but if you are to change, stick with it.

It seems there is hardly a difference between using 25,26,27 or 28 as your BE point so for piece of mind you may as well use 25. (the quicker you get there, pschologically its better). It seems though that adding only 4 or 3 pips as BE add performs better than adding 5 (over the long run).

So if I were to change to the 38/38 ,I would trade it 38/38/25/4.

 

[podberry]

Im still using the recommended FMT settings

45/35/25/5 on one account and then a variation of Hammy settings and my own 40/30/25/5 on another.
And 40/10 on another (although perhaps not for much longer -- serious drawdowns but it was small account knowing full well that a bad run was inevitable but honestly did not think I would see what we have seen over last 3 weeks trading the 40/10)

I do not believe in chopping and changing my combinations. Having said that though, I always change my main account to recommended FMT settings.
Come December (or August) I may split funds and trade a 1:1 ratio.
You would of noticed that everyone who changed from recommended settings to the 38/38/27/5 ended up losing yesterday but those who stuck with FMT settings ended up winning and this will happen if one keeps chopping and changing. 38/38 seems a very good set but if you are to change, stick with it.

It seems there is hardly a difference between using 25,26,27 or 28 as your BE point so for piece of mind you may as well use 25. (the quicker you get there, pschologically its better). It seems though that adding only 4 or 3 pips as BE add performs better than adding 5 (over the long run).

So if I were to change to the 38/38 ,I would trade it 38/38/25/4.

Must say trading anything but the recommended settings is a lonely journey as we all celebrate differently, like yesterday as you said. Just wish we could get a set closer to 1:1 RR as an extra 10 pips on the stop-loss is a bitter pill to swallow when we get consecutive losses.

 

[Too Sexy]

Agreed, from a technical perspective, FMT and other indicators this trade was a clear winning long, I saw nothing to the contrary!

The first 30 minutes looked good then it faded, we are now into waiting territory and indicators are turning against us.

Hold tight and good luck to all

If we can hold above 1.6180 on this pullback, we will be ok. Problem is the Stop Loss sits just a few pips above this level,

What is very bad for this trade is the fact that the trade was taken at the resistance High ,which also happens to be the break down point of Wednesday support point at the very same level when the gbp/usd had it Big Down Move.

Take a look yourself at the support point at on Wednesday at 1.6237 , easy to see , this dip might be a good thing if the level of 1.6180 holds , it may give some traders a chance to buy on a dip allowing for larger orders to take out 1.6237 support turned resistance.

 

[rogerfri]

Im losing confidence at the moment, how long have you chaps been using FMT

 

[jabu99]

Yes, I thought about it, but at this time I'm often already at work and, so, I can't do that...

(Sorry if my english is not perfect : I'm french (but I take a shower once a day and I don't eat frogs : that's disgusting...)
...

N'est-il pas les Anglais qui cachent leur argent sous le savon?

 

[andybissell]

In my view, even though I got a TP yesterday...the signal has failed 5 times in a row and atm it looks like it could head for 6.

There is no news today that might save us so lets see what happens....

 

[deserteagle]

Wow, we are positive again, quicly Pod take a picture
Hope that resistance level can be broken.