Jashfx
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3 wins , 5 losses and 4 B/E trading at recommeded settings. You forgetting the borderline trade (LOL!!!!!)
3 wins , 5 losses and 4 B/E trading at recommeded settings. You forgetting the borderline trade (LOL!!!!!)
wiseambitions
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Those were my personal results. Perhaps there was a borderline trade which fell in my favour
I am trying, fastidiously, to maintain proper records of trading experience, and perhaps i can share the following information:
1) At 40tp/40sl (which were the original settings)
Of the last 50 trades, 23 were winners. Net loss 160 pips
Of the latest 100 trades, 54 were winners, Net gain +320
2) At 28tp/40sl, (which is what I choose to go with now)
Of the last 50 trades, 27 were winners, net loss 164 pips
Of the latest 100 trades, 68 were winners, net gain +624
These trades all include the Christmas period, when most of us would have stayed away.
I dont yet have accurate data to show the effects of break even resets
Whilst I am disappointed about recent experience I find some optimism having looked at previous experience, and continue to believe these bad patches are part of a better long term outcome. The only reason the FMT system would be in terminal decline would be if market conditions have changed, and there is no great economic factor which would tell me that is the case at the moment.
Deatil
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At the start of this month I wrote and express my views about over looking fundamental news and the affects it has on FMT.
I also ask how many of you had taken into account the wins that were caused by News release which are not seem on the backtest.
Some even went on to say the the News was already "baked" into the move, which I totally again disagreed with. Now at least with these string of recent losses. Some of you would start to pay more attention to the effects of News release and "why" a trade should be taken. At some point traders have to start and use their best indicator . Their brains, rules are not cast in stone and as traders we must adjust in "real time" to current events . Not after the fact when accounts are drain or blown up and after some back test which reveals . the "oh, I should of and could of" use this take profit and use this stop lose.
I see the market really has change the habit, first the leader of the pairs is the eur/usd and second before we had a slow Asia market, but many month already there is much of movement in the Asia market session , so I think for this system it is of vital important to move at london open from a slow market before, but this time is over and the time for the cable also, so for me all the breakout system at europe or london at cable has not so good results in the past and in the future.
deserteagle
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Due to my large SL (65) I'm still in, fortunately it is going to the BE level, hope it keeps in that direction.
michaelhryu
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Glad to hear that you are still in. Good luck!
deserteagle
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A bit of info about my variation on the FMT strategy - please feel free to shoot holes in it if required!
I use the standard FMT system, but with SL=20 and TP= 7.
This has given me 7/7 wins over the last few days, and I am currently in profit for January. An interesting point, but this strategy often works REGARDLESS of whether the FMT indicator is correct or not, as the general 'noise' in the market often triggers TP. Today is a good example of such a case.
Of course this is certainly not a "get rich quick" strategy. but according to my backtest (6 months) it hasn't had a losing month yet...
Please let me know if any comments or suggestions!
Cheers!
Philip.
I use the standard FMT system, but with SL=20 and TP= 7.
This has given me 7/7 wins over the last few days, and I am currently in profit for January. An interesting point, but this strategy often works REGARDLESS of whether the FMT indicator is correct or not, as the general 'noise' in the market often triggers TP. Today is a good example of such a case.
Of course this is certainly not a "get rich quick" strategy. but according to my backtest (6 months) it hasn't had a losing month yet...
Please let me know if any comments or suggestions!
Cheers!
Philip.
I will own up to being the one that said "news is baked in the cake" I still believe that and that is my opinion but I want you to know that I value your opposite opinion. What is important here is that this is a long term strategy. If a trader is looking for consistant weekly results, this EA is not for you. You have to look at this on a 3-6 month basis. I have been trading this since 9/15/10....I stopped trading it 12/14/10 and restarted 1/17/11. At 12/14/10 I was somewhere around +400 pips. There were news events during this time period as well and still profited so that is why I discount news for the FMT.
I did not endure the drawdown for december becasue my experience was not to trade this time period because of lower volitility and liquidity which we at least need volitility for this strategy. My advice for those trading FMT is to put a trade size that you can live with and go to sleep everynight without worry. Know that a 70% winning system you have the probability of 8 losing trades in a row....drawdown is part of trading. If you are trading 2% per trade you have to accept that at sometime you have the potential of an 16-20% drawdown. Trading greater than this could mean the possibility of a significant drawdown. In this same example, 5% risk per trade could give you upto 40% expected drawdown although the opposite reward would be worth it, a smart trader cannot allow this to be a possibility. When your trading account is drawn down by 25% you need to re-evaluate your strategies. FMT is so far profitable for me so I will continue until it proves differently.
I am still actively trading the FMT with a 2% risk per trade...I have 1 winner and 2 losers and 2 breakevens for the month with my broker. I am down but it is not a disaster month...My advice is to reduce your trade size to level you are comfortable with and continue to evaluate. If you don't stick to something you will continuosly be jumping around to different systems. Again, I like the FMT because it is not blackbox and that you can trade it manually. It is simply a profitable strategy in the long run, but you have to be around to trade another day when you lose. Risking too much per trade will drain your capital account to a level that you cannot recover. Compound your winnings with a small risk per trade and in the long run you will be profitable. Keep changing and tweeking the system and you will lose because you are not being consistant.
very interesting...Just wondering how you came up with 7 tp and 20 sl?
Tenapenny
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Same here. +43 today and as I didn't trade till 10th of month I'm +107 pips so far using SLM.
I just spent an awful lot of time analysing previous trades over the last 6 months and comparing different SL/TP combinations! Speciifcally I was looking for a system that would be profitible during December, but I found it was also profitible every month I tested, and thats what got me interested.
HOWEVER to be clear: A more usual strategy like 40/28 would still have netted MORE pips over the period, due to the excellent results it got prior to December, offsetting the recent losing streak. Depends what you want really, but as for me I like to see consistent (if smaller) profits...
I agree...on the average how many pips did u see at the end of every month and have you tried different times, just like Hamy 66..btw thanks Hammy!
I have to agree with this! If you do not stick with a system you cannot reap the rewards.
I am also doing this alongside FMT but with a TP of 10 and a SL of 40. I am also getting some very good results. As you say not a get rich quick strategy... but if you compound your money you are onto a winner. I know the reward to risk ratio is low but if you have say a 95% strike rate.... why not!!!
i run the same test tp=10 stop= 40 and all the 2010 its best from january to may no very good but from june to december very nice
Deatil
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I understand what you are saying. But my point is, and for some reason up until now it was falling on deaf ears when I tried to explain it earlier in this thread.
When anyone has done a back test or even mention stop values that have been changed along with changed take profit targets. There remains one major NEW issue that has become very important in this new global market.
That we have up to until today fail to mention or take notice of. This one important element that has gone either unspoken or un-noticed that really just started to take shape at that start of 2009 till now.
The Asian sessions in the past were used to consolidate price action which occurred over the London and US session.
But we now have a “new player” in this global game a player that can turn the markets and shift market moods all by itself, and that ‘player” is China.
We now are having major News being released out of China at around 9:00 PM NYT, which can shift the markets moods and cause trend changes, But even worse is the early news release out of China which did not really exist or have any major impact before 2009 has caused what was once a quite Asian session to become more volatile and make the trading ranges far exceed that 40 or even a 50 pip stop used by FMT.
I once tried to explain that good news out of China more than likely would cause the GBP/USD to really as risk appetite would pick up and investors even on a short term basis would seek higher yielding currency and investments and use the dollar as a carried trade ,even it it meant just base on over night moves.
But if news out of China was bad for their economy investors would run to the USD as a safe haven and the flows would cause a shift change, again it may just be a short term change , but enough to kill any FMT trade, and remember that during the days when China news is scheduled for release that more then likely the trading ranges will be wilder then normal.
This topic is beyond this thread, but anyone who keeps over looking this major point will have trouble going forward.
Same can be said for any major moves caused by the prior day, why would anyone take a counter-trend trade today, when we had such a BAD GDP number out of the UK last night, and also given the fact again as we can see the Asian session had a 61 pip range? With the bottom of the range at 1.5774 with over night rejection at 1.5808, even before the FMT Long trade issue.
We need to think a little and not just follow blindly after any of the above events have happen the day before and we are about to take a counter trend trade. Will this always work NO.
But it will improve our risk reward if we use some common sense, maybe like tonite Long trade signal, we could think about buying into a pullback and decrease the range size and thereby improving our risk reward.
