Forex knowledge and live trading journal

Learning how to trade profitably in forex or the indices can only be achieved through practising . To become a good "F1 driver" you must get out there and drive and write off a few cars first - to learn the rules is easy but to put them in good practice is not, and would take a lot of time and efforts - but the rewards can be high if you make it eventually.
 
aliasentric said:
Trade management - 100% win rate this week!

13 trades this week, all winners, with 60% increase on capital so far as we try to increase profits in outstanding trades…

http://youtu.be/BusW2dy1c0A
Click to expand...


Well Done then Aliasentric

Couple of questions - Have you taken any of the profits yet - or are they still out in the market ?

Out of the 13 trades - how many were open at the same time ? and what % stake did you have on each one ?

Today as been a brilliant "double whammy" stop hunt day - ie frying both bulls and bears - If you survive days like today with your method - WD - but I am surprised ?

Regards

F
 
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aliasentric said:
Closed out all of my trades for the week.

overall:
13 winners
0 losers

with 66% gain for the week. Looking forward to plenty of good opportunities next week…

http://youtu.be/3vH1npkOTsY
Click to expand...

Hi Rodney,

First of all may I say congratulations on an excellent week. keep up the good work, and I wish you all the best for the future.

I do have one question for you. If you are going in at 10-20% per trade, what is you're opinion on your percentage capital exposure, and do you regularly see your R:R being hit each time, or do you pull out early out of any trades.

best
John.
 
sonofcablemonster said:
Yes I understand why you have started the thread. The point I am making is that it is nonsense that anyone with 8 months experience can 'help' someone new or otherwise out. The fact that you think you can suggests that your decision making ability and situational awareness aren't great, two abilities that you will need to excel in as a trader if you are to stand a chance. What a more level headed person would have done would have been to start a journal and encourage discussion of the content rather than the constant preaching and '8 months and I have got it sussed' attitude.
Click to expand...

but cant you see that hes cracked it ? .....

so he doesnt need a low key journal to manage his performance .....he needs to teach and share so that others can follow and learn

some of us disbelievers at T2W were just a little sceptical because we all believed it took years to learn to trade ..........so the eggs on us ......damn those years of hard work and wasted years.......

and I like my eggs poached
N
 
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Mr Fox said:
Hi Rodney,

First of all may I say congratulations on an excellent week. keep up the good work, and I wish you all the best for the future.

I do have one question for you. If you are going in at 10-20% per trade, what is you're opinion on your percentage capital exposure, and do you regularly see your R:R being hit each time, or do you pull out early out of any trades.

best
John.
Click to expand...

Hi John, thanks for the post…

The reason I don't worry about risk exposure, is because I enter as many trades as I can concurrently (I usually max out at 6 open trades at one time, but as I improve, I may increase this). My strategy is based on hedging any potential losses with my win percentage and win/loss ratio.

For example, if I am confident I will win more trades than I will lose, and I will also gain more on my winning trades than I will lose on my failing trades, then I will mitigate the risk to my capital. For example, if I enter 6 trades, and only win half of them, I still come out ahead. But more often than not, I win most of them. My biggest losses have been risking too much on 1 trade. As long as I don't risk too much on any single trade, I avoid the biggest potential risk to my capital, as risking too much on a single trade has been my biggest and most painful mistakes in the past.

Out of 200 trades, my worst losing streak was 3 consecutive losses and I don't even remember much about it, as I didn't lose too much overall. My worst hit to my capital was 1 single trade because of risking too much on it. I remember this very clearly as it was a big hit it to my capital.

Of course, if someone has a tendency to go through losing streaks periodically, this strategy would not be for them. One would have to build up their confidence first.

In terms of allowing trades to hit SL or TP, or take them out early, I usually let them ride until they are in profits. I typically do watch every trade as it progresses. If I lose confidence in a trade, I will close it out. But usually, it's not until it is in profit. Once a trade is in profits and in a good R:R ratio, I move my SL to protect profit, and may add to my positions, and ride it out as long as possible. But I'm finding, I don't like holding trades over the weekend, so I will probably take profits by end of week.

So basically, I enter trades based on confidence. I set the SL at a point where I know if it hits the SL, I've lost confidence in the trade. So, if it hasn't hit the SL, then I usually still have confidence in the trade. Interestingly enough, it's harder for me to remain confident in a trade after it is in profits, but I'm working on this...

Of course, there are many factors involved such as timing, and how long it may take for wining trades to work out verses losing trades to hit stop losses, or when I may choose to take profit. But hopefully this answers your questions...
 
Okay, some say I am "preaching" too much with nothing to back up what I "preach". Some say I am not humble.

My response to this is, I will continue to "preach" my views, as it stimulates and expands my thinking faculties, and reinforces what I believe to be true, and I believe it can encourage others who are open minded. Anything I feel strongly about, I will "preach" about it. I have strong views and opinions. I admit that.

I continue to work on humility, as I know I have plenty of room to grow with that. However, I won't hold back help that I feel will benefit others, just because someone says I'm not humble.

Plus, if anyone has a problem with someone because of perceived lack of humility, it is only a problem if the one with that perception is not humble enough to deal kindly with the person who they feel is lacking in humility.

If one is humble, they don't go around pointing out other's perceived lack of humility, since their own humility would remind them of their own need to be humble, rather than thinking they have some sort of authority to decide on who is humble and who is not.

Aside from all of the above, this is a trading forum. I didn't know that humility was a requirement to post on it? Nevertheless, I will keep working on it, thank you…
 
I will post videos of all of my trades, successes and failures.

What I am presenting is an honest and true trading experience. If it blows up in my face, I will be the first to point that out. Does this mean I am humble? You decide, but I digress…

One objective, as stated before with my posts/videos is to help other traders. Am I saying "do everything I do since I know everything"? No. I don't know everything. I've learned enough, however, that I think others may benefit from it. Others already have, as some have posted such, here as well as to me privately.

Lastly, I will not continue to respond to defend myself against those who doubt my ability, or question or defame my character. If I think some may benefit from my response, I may respond. If it is waste of time, I will just move on.

My trading results, and how I approach things as recorded in my videos will speak volumes more in terms of my trading and character. Feel free to check them out. Or not.

If I can help you, great. If I can't then, oh well, who's problem is that? Sure not something I will worry about.

I've already posted an apology for my posts at the outset of this thread if it came across too strong. I don't think a few forum posts define who I am though, do they?

If you'd like to get to know me or my trading style, keep coming back. If you don't, then well, you get the point…
 
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aliasentric said:
I will post videos of all of my trades, successes and failures.

What I am presenting is an honest and true trading experience. If it blows up in my face, I will be the first to point that out. Does this mean I am humble? You decide, but I digress…
Click to expand...

Hi Aliasentric

I appreciate I am on "ignore" - but maybe I can pose some questions and then another trader who might feel the same as me can ask you them and then you will respond.

1. Are you a trader who used to be known as "Linechart" ? This guy had over 3 yrs experience and has appeared on other sites - although his methods were slightly different - his voice on the video's is identical to yours ?

2. Next question - I had dismissed you were Linechart - he is based in the US. However you voice is so similar and although you say you are from the UK - are you living here at the moment ?

3. Why I ask that is the "clue" you gave away on your Friday video - when you did not know whether the GU (I think) high had been posted Friday am or Thursday pm - and to clear you said - well 8 hrs ago? Surely if you are in the UK you trade European times - something here does not stack up with your trade management times ?

4. My real reason I am concerned about any advice you are giving to new traders is due to the fact that you are advising stakes as high as 10 -20% of capital on multiple trades.

Now - this is known as "suicide" or "Russian Roulette" to any experienced trader - and you just don't seem to understand it ?

For example if you had say just 2 losses and you took say 33% off your capital - then you need to gain 50% to just put you back to were you were before the 2 bad trades

5. I am not bothered whether you have made only 200 trades live for only 4 -6 months at 10-20 trades per week - that's no problem - you are just inexperienced with this number - and this is shown with you saying you have never had more than 3 consecutive losses. Even with just 3 loses in a row - it should have put you off taking 20% stakes ;-)

6. Both NVP ( I believe) and myself are ex accountants - and as you can imagine we therefore must like maths and numbers Your 66% increase with 13 winners at stake from 10-20% just does not stand up for me - especially with the comments you had made earlier in the week about protecting your profits etc

I am sure you know it is possible to have a 85-90% win ratio - and still lose money - ie your capital account goes down. It is also possible to have positive winning pips - but still have a cash loss in the week - simply because your losing pips that were a lot less than your winning pips - were on 2 or 3 times the stake size.

Without you explaining more about your stop sizes and your pip wins for each trade - any experienced trader is bound to question your results - similar to how mine are questioned - and I only advocating stake sizes of 0.5 to 2% maximum of capital.

As I have continually said - Good Luck - keep posting and I really do wish you well

Regards

F
 
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F - I've taken you off ignore, but you are on probation :sneaky:

I have no idea who "Linechart" is. So, no I am not "Linechart". As far as where I live, I am actually based in the US. When I created my profile it just defaulted to UK, and I just never bothered to change it. Maybe I'll change it, but didn't really think it that critical, since really, who cares where I live? Are you stalking me? :LOL: just kidding.

But as far as my trading, I do use the European candle charts. I do not trade off of the US candle charts. I've looked at both, and don't see any advantage of one over the other. I also find, I prefer the European candle charts simply because I'm used to trading off of them, and I believe more people trade off of them than the US charts anyway. I could be wrong, but again, I don't see any critical reason to try and trade off of US charts…

Regarding what advice I'm giving, let me clarify something. Everyone is responsible for their own trading journey. I don't really give advice. I give my opinion on trading, and honestly show how it works (or doesn't work), when I apply what I've learned.

As far as risk goes, I've already answered this in a prior post. Why are you asking again, especially when another poster also asked a similar question. Now I will be answering this for the third time.

If you don't understand this, you should say so. If you don't agree with it, then fine. But just to keep asking the same question over and over after I've already answered it is wearisome. I won't argue about this, or anything else, but here's one more attempt to answer how I mitigate risk:

If I have 6 trades open, my intent is to win every single one of them. Obviously, I may lose some. So lets say I lose 3 of them, hence the 3 losses in a row scenario. And lets say I lose 20% on every one of those losses, so 60% loss. So, terrible, all is lost since I just decimated 60% of my capital, right? :-0 Wrong. Since you are forgetting about the other 3 open trades :idea:

If the other 3 open trades are even only up an average of 10% each, then I'm only experiencing a 30% drawdown on my capital, then if I just gain 20% on each of the open trades, I'm at break even. And with a 3:1 win/loss ratio, I'd have more than doubled my original capital in spite of the 3 losses.

I've already stated in a prior post, I'm willing to risk 50% of my capital, since I know I can gain it back or even turn it into a gain, within a week.

I've also stated, I'm not working with a lot of money here. When I increase my capital enough, I may decide to limit my risk more. But I really don't think my risk management is problem. I've experienced the worst that can happen, and am willing to experience whatever comes as a result of my risk. Any other trader needs to make the same assessment when they trade, and make their own decision in terms of how much they want to risk. Advocating some sort of rule in terms of risk percentage that everyone should follow, in my opinion, is bologna.

Another way to look at this, greater the risk, the greater the reward. If you aren't risking much, and you have a losing streak, it will just take you that much longer to recover. I will chose my method, as I have seen how much quicker I can recover from losses.

As far as lot size, I don't change my lot size when I have losses. I determine my lot size such that even if I lose half of my capital, I can still trade with the same lot size, hence recover very quickly. One reason many traders fail, is because they get scared after losses and lower their risk. This just take longer to recover, and further erodes confidence.

As far as pips goes, in terms of risk, you can look at the videos and figure it out for yourself. The trades are there, I don't hide anything. But I'm also not going spend so much time explaining everything that my trading suffers.

You also have to trade the right pairs. For example, if you open 5 trades against the JPY because you have very clear evidence on each pair in terms of direction. The chances are pretty high that all 5 will be winners. This is not complicated, as it would seem very clear that the JPY is weakening, so the 5 "signals" on each pair that are in agreement, are probably pretty reliable. It increases your trading probability.

Once again, I see the potential to get involved in an argument that will go nowhere and will not have any benefit. If you don't agree, fine. I have no problem with that. I'm not twisting anyone's arm to follow my trading. And have made it very clear that you have to be confident in your strategy and have a good wining percentage, or this will not work for you. My advice for anyone looking at my strategy, is to only focus on what I say about reading price action, and how I set stop losses, and manage my trades. Determine for yourself lot-size and what you want to risk. Notice, I don't even talk about this in the videos, as I know it's something that every trader needs to determine on their own.

So, as I said, I'm not advocating everyone jump in and try my strategy. Everyone needs to learn their own strategy. But if any traders can pick up pointers from me that will help them in their trading, that's all my objective is. I'm not promoting any sort of strategy or risk management. I'm just giving an overall, honest picture of live trading. Take it for whatever it's worth. If it is worth nothing to you, then that is fine by me.
 
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I can't believe I'm spending so much time talking about risk. Here's one more post for anyone who mistakenly thinks I'm trying to give advice on how much you should risk.

I am not giving any advice on what any trader should risk.
I am not giving any advice on what any trader should risk.
I am not giving any advice on what any trader should risk.
I am not giving any advice on what any trader should risk.
I am not giving any advice on what any trader should risk.

The only advice I'll give on risk, is that, if you don't know how to trade, and/or if you don't have confidence in whether you can recover from losses, you should not be risking much at all. Learn how to trade first before you increase your risk.
 
Thank you for your reply Aliasentric.

Its the maths side we will have to disagree on - but I would prefer maybe other traders explaining more on this.

See you have mentioned before you winning trades have RR's of 3 ( very good / excellent trades) - so therefore if you have had 13 winning trades and you even placed just your minimum stake % on of 10% therefore with a RR of 3 - the result is 30% gain - per trade

13 winning trades at 30% gain on each trade is 390% for the week - not 66%

If you now say - well not every win made a RR of 3 - that's fine - but then that means you could have trouble with your 3 losses and 3 win trades then as theory and reality are not always the same ;-)

Other than that - no problem if your strategy keep giving you RR's of 3 and 80% + win ratios - I think you have found something extremely special - BUT - I very much doubt you will have the same results over the next 500 trades - ( otherwise the market's supercomputers are not doing their job right ;-)) - so please be aware of that

GL and i wish you a very profitable and successful 2014

Regards

F
 
F - I only gave 1 scenario.

The fact is, I don't need to have a 3:1 win/loss ratio.

I never associated my scenario with my trades this week. The fact that you are making that association leads me to believe you are trying to bait me into an argument. Please don't start wasting my time again.
 
Plus, if you would have looked at my videos, you'll see some trades had 4 and 5 to 1 win/loss ratio.

I don't have a set win/loss ratio. I trade to win as much as possible, and try not to limit winning trades...
 
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