Following the money: catching the trends before they realize

[random12345]

By your own admission youve worked an FX desk. Im sure you could bring a lot of useful insight to these boards rather than lulz it up so much. What a waste.

So what happened to your history of money...?

I can't bring much about the literal functionality of trading to these boards unless I just upload thousands of hours of work and as you can see from the journals, there's a definite issue with retail trading being feasible in general - you think institutional desks use high latency connections to long and short support and resistance for the bulk of their quarterly trading income...?

Most of my posts have nothing to do with lulz.

All I can suggest is that you learn how algos work as that is how I make my portion.....

 

[random12345]

By your own admission youve worked an FX desk. Im sure you could bring a lot of useful insight to these boards rather than lulz it up so much. What a waste.

With regret, I missed the portion of your post that referred to your money thread, I will read it in time.

 

[darktone]

So what happened to your history of money...?

I can't bring much about the literal functionality of trading to these boards unless I just upload thousands of hours of work and as you can see from the journals, there's a definite issue with retail trading being feasible in general - you think institutional desks use high latency connections to long and short support and resistance for the bulk of their quarterly trading income...?

Most of my posts have nothing to do with lulz.

All I can suggest is that you learn how algos work as that is how I make my portion.....

Ive no idea how an average desk would play it. No idea about algos either. Id take a look out of interest tho, you have any worthwhile links?
edit: sorry to the OP btw.

 

[random12345]

Ive no idea how an average desk would play it. No idea about algos either. Id take a look out of interest tho, you have any worthwhile links?
edit: sorry to the OP btw.

In honesty, no. I consider it to be a specialist applied science and as with most specialisms (especially ones that make money), public domain information on the internet is extremely limited. I could no more link you to ways to successfully operate on a glioma than to develop a working algo. Though I would never compare the difficulty of neurology with quant trading, it makes my point.

There are a number of retail charting packages that offer good GUI frontends and a reasonable strategy development environment with comprehensive portfolio tools - Ninjatrader, Multicharts and the like and each person has to start there and go forward.

I have discussed in numerous threads that algo development would likely take two years out of your life and be some of the hardest graft you have ever done, so it is a decision people have to make on whether they think they could bring an edge to it vs improving their discretionary trading in the same two years. There are just as many threads on forums etc of people attempting development, failing and disappearing forever than there are discretionary journals that end in failure or peter out.

As a means to becoming wealthy, trading requires:

- significant depth of capital compared to the retail average or a benefactor
- total persistence
- a lifestyle mostly free of dependants
- huge amounts of time
- a relatively high degree of intelligence.

If any one element is missing, you have no chance. Not to say you can't make money otherwise, but wealth is a different thing entirely.

 

[darktone]

In honesty, no. I consider it to be a specialist applied science and as with most specialisms (especially ones that make money), public domain information on the internet is extremely limited. I could no more link you to ways to successfully operate on a glioma than to develop a working algo. Though I would never compare the difficulty of neurology with quant trading, it makes my point.

No probs. I cant say that im that interested tbh, but am willing to put my head round the door of anything and have a peek.

As a means to becoming wealthy, trading requires:

- significant depth of capital compared to the retail average or a benefactor
Not imo, as examples of small accounts becoming large accounts exist.
- total persistence
Totally agree.
- a lifestyle mostly free of dependants
Im on the fence on that one.
- huge amounts of time
In the beginning at least, certainly imo.
- a relatively high degree of intelligence.
At least as far as discretionary trading goes im kinda on the fence here, depending on whats meant by intelligence.

If any one element is missing, you have no chance. Not to say you can't make money otherwise, but wealth is a different thing entirely.

All imho of course. You have yours, i have mine, but thats ok.

Cheers
D

 

[random12345]

Not imo, as examples of small accounts becoming large accounts exist.

Out of genuine interest, you have modern day legitimate examples of this? T2W definition 'small' accounts (i.e. < 10 or even <5 grand) becoming at least 5 million?

 

[darktone]

Out of genuine interest, you have modern day legitimate examples of this? T2W definition 'small' accounts (i.e. < 10 or even <5 grand) becoming at least 5 million?

Not modern day, but i dont pay much attention tbh. Im talking about the old boys in market wizards. Some didnt start off as small as <5k, but some did. Most went onto OPM but iirc some didnt.
Michael Marcus
Tom Baldwin
Marty Schwartz
Are probably my favorite interviews from the book.
market wizards pdf search

 

[random12345]

Not modern day, but i dont pay much attention tbh. Im talking about the old boys in market wizards. Some didnt start off as small as <5k, but some did. Most went onto OPM but iirc some didnt.
Michael Marcus
Tom Baldwin
Marty Schwartz
Are probably my favorite interviews from the book.
market wizards pdf search

I've enjoyed all of the Market Wizards books, but adjusted for inflation they started with what would be comparatively nice money these days (not to mention lower tax as well - new money in New York for instance runs into 50+% tax on Federal, State & City together) and there's literally 1 or 2 that didn't work institutionally first and/or meet a benefactor along the way, since very often they would become big time favourites at the CBOT or CME. Nobody takes a liking to anybody over the internet in the same way and nor can they teach them to tag market moves in the same way as in a 25 year old pit (naturally). They all speak candidly about glaring and huge market inefficiencies back then as well as mispricing. I am friendly with Steve Clark of Omni (who was in the HF book) and you just don't hear of people coming up that way any more through Schwager (who only left London recently) or anyone else. Never bet against the trend right...

This history doesn't compare at all with the average retail trader these days stuck in his bedroom I'm afraid. Those days have been gone for near enough 20 years - you're not going to get any exposure to the right people. There are a few prop people with relatively poor education records who have come up trading STIRs on a very small seed. I'm not saying it can't happen, I just have never seen it.

It is however, very easy to sell this dream because of compounding etc and quote the likes of Livermore while doing it. Sells education material.

 

[darktone]

I've enjoyed all of the Market Wizards books, but adjusted for inflation they started with what would be comparatively nice money these days (not to mention lower tax as well - new money in New York for instance runs into 50+% tax on Federal, State & City together) and there's literally 1 or 2 that didn't work institutionally first and/or meet a benefactor along the way, since very often they would become big time favourites at the CBOT or CME. Nobody takes a liking to anybody over the internet in the same way and nor can they teach them to tag market moves in the same way as in a 25 year old pit (naturally). They all speak candidly about glaring and huge market inefficiencies back then as well as mispricing. I am friendly with Steve Clark of Omni (who was in the HF book) and you just don't hear of people coming up that way any more through Schwager (who only left London recently) or anyone else. Never bet against the trend right...

This history doesn't compare at all with the average retail trader these days stuck in his bedroom I'm afraid. Those days have been gone for near enough 20 years - you're not going to get any exposure to the right people. There are a few prop people with relatively poor education records who have come up trading STIRs on a very small seed. I'm not saying it can't happen, I just have never seen it.

It is however, very easy to sell this dream because of compounding etc and quote the likes of Livermore while doing it. Sells education material.

Fair points re inflation / institutional background and the market condition back then. I can understand the lack of exposure view also, but not everybody wants to get involved with OPM, at least i sure dont.
I also agree also that the 'dream' can be ripe material for the vendors, esp compounding etc.

With all that said, I think that there is huge value in those old books, not so much technically, granted. But for mindset and general approach, I like them a lot!
Btw, nowadays, I like trend! Does that put me in the minority.:cheesy:

 

[Shakone]

...
Btw, nowadays, I like trend! Does that put me in the minority.:cheesy:

Only if you correctly know which direction it is

 

[Mr. Crabs]

It's no bother, it was educational.

Crabs I'm still convinced you think the ability to move the market = free money. You're so wrong! You still need to 'get it right' even if you can move the market yourself. Fake outs are often entities actually not faking you at all, they are consuming say 10 prices of liquidity with huge clips and then getting absolutely destroyed on their ave position. They are losing huge amounts of money but may simply be hedging or holding. Moving markets does not equal making money from that move. YOU BOUGHT THE MOVE. Breakout momentum is far from guaranteed, more like 50/50. Risk vs return is crap. Stop seeking is a different game. Value at risk controls will prevent you from loading up whatever you like whenever you like.

The only way to do this for sure is to use HFT spoofing (oh that's illegal by the way), otherwise the market is quite good at making this difficult, as it is at making everything legitimate difficult.

Also nobody in the history of the world has traded gold at 1000 to 1 leverage on a 100m or even a 5m account. Madness. You've got everything back to front even from your fantasy perspective.

Sorry to hear about your troubles on your practice acct, but you need to rethink everything you think you know. Operators aren't going to 'consolidate' against JP Morgan. I won't bother your threads again.

You offered some of your own knowledge to the thread so I respect your post. There's no need to get upset over this though, I imagine you think you know everything and that I'm so ignorant that I'm clueless as to how the market operates. But in reality all it is is volume and buys and sells. Anyone can create support and force-spark a rally if they have enough cash to risk. If there's no money on the downside then a move to the upside is inevitable.

I'm trading these huge practice accounts to sort of get a feel for how much money can be made in gold trading / forex trading if one were to have nearly limitless equity.

Considering that gold is gold and is due to turn bullish again when the market turns bearish when this phase of the business cycle concludes loading gold incessantly after sell offs this size would likely prove very profitable in the long term despite temporary losses. If I had indeed opened an account (or several thousands of accounts) with 1000x leverage and $10,000,000,000 in equity I think that I would ended up loading a lions share position at $1,300 before sending it upwards. This would force JPM and others to follow my lead because I was the most aggressive buyer who took the highest amount of risk, risk that paid off. So in the end they would have to pay me to take part in the bounce, or sell their remainder to try to squash me out but when you have the ability to buy all the existing gold (on paper at least) there's not really anything they can do but buy with you or from you if they are too aggressive short, or sit on the sidelines and wait to sell remaining positions up while the day traders and swing traders outside of them have a ball.

This has nothing to do with high frequency trading, all I'm doing is contributing a significant portion of the buying volume each hour. If there's 2,000 lots traded in 1 hour then I'll buy 500 of them. It's just an experiment to get a better understanding of the market.

I guess my point is just because no one has ever did it doesn't mean no one ever will. And I would bet that someone has done it before. It's not like JPM etc. always owns the bottoms and tops... Big money players have stepped up to bat before.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Rothschild gets a bad rep

unfortunately its no joke
i did n't like it either when i first found it out
but i care not about anyone's creed or colour


“Give me control over a nations currency, and I care not who makes its laws.” ~Baron M.A. Rothschild

But they have class and someones gotta lock down the game. Volatility is only good to the extent that it can be used to create stability. Without them I suspect the world would be a much less stable place. Despite what you see on the news and business news the world has grown impressively stable over the past century minus the 2 world wars which were massive hurdles.

Have a little faith in the royal-roth financial system because you have them to thank for the internet, iphones and the like. We would have never developed these niches so impressively without their financial dominance.

I may be ignorant but I think it's wise to assume that the Rothschilds are my friends.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

The majors all have an evolving interconnected relationship

sorry to interupt the world domination discussions ..........

Mr Crabs .........did you ever respond to me about the correlation on the 3 currencies you were trading ......I am seriously interested in discussing any views or ideas you have

if you want to discuss privately I am at [email protected]

cheers
N

Simple correlation what's at a bargain will be a profit haven what's overvalued will sell and subsequently collapse.

The EUR is over valued. I don't think it could have gotten close to this value without its' peg to the Franc. USD is due to sell with the EUR after it breaks bearish as well but the EURUSD will pay shorts because the USD is in a more preferable position to hold than the EUR. On the other hand the AUD is at a very favorable price, this will lead profiteers to holding profits and excess equity in that currency.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Overview: progression of what I'm focusing on

The EUR took a while longer to rebound than I expected, but that in itself is to be expected because I have proven myself to be impatient with the forex 9 out of 10 times. It's up near all time highs, I think there's a high probability that 108.75 is a price the EUR will not see in the mod-term. It's time to sell, it's gone up far enough. It's not likely there's a significant enough amount of short positions left over to burn from here. Buying for new highs would be extremely high risk after such a sharp sell signal last month so I think this will fall back down and soon. I can't imagine there's many rebounds of this magnitude left before the mod-term reversal short realizes.

The USD on the other hand is looking strong and has more upside left to it yet in the short-mod term. This makes a EUR reversal all the more likely to realize soon.

The AUD pulled back and I think it is now oversold in the short-term. This recent sell off probably played a big part in the EUR pulling off such a considerable rally. I think it's about time to start re-loading, many have averaged down with this pullback I assume and I presume that would be wise as the potential upside on the AUD is enormous.

As for gold the accumulation / distribution is at its' lowest point in years. This is a major buy signal anyone whose hands were strong enough to hold on averaging down during the past few bounces this month will be paid off generously in the long-term I predict.

Gold and EURAUD short could possibly pay off the most profits in the market long-term. These continue to be my 2 favorites. They are only looking more attractive to me as they move contrary to my position.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Twitter looks good for a bounce intra-day

Weak opening I think operators are shaking out weak hands so that the stock performs better through this week. I think from here there's a good chance it breaks out past $40.25 before the market closes. That's a full dollar gain, almost 3%. I think that's a decent target today for operators to keep this trading high through the week.

By the way I made a TWTR thread.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/sto...ock-chat-discussion-thread-3.html#post2229508

 

[Mr. Crabs]

TWTR was a dissappointment today.

Weak opening I think operators are shaking out weak hands so that the stock performs better through this week. I think from here there's a good chance it breaks out past $40.25 before the market closes. That's a full dollar gain, almost 3%. I think that's a decent target today for operators to keep this trading high through the week.

By the way I made a TWTR thread.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/sto...ock-chat-discussion-thread-3.html#post2229508

Maybe it will do well through the week but today I was expecting more.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Forex check to start the week

Impressive new highs on the EUR. It's still moving strong so it might play well on the upside - for day-traders at least.

For swingers the EUR looks over-extended in the short-term, mod-term and long-term. So I will retain my stance of accumulating short.

The USD slowed up but is pulling easy rips intra-day on the upside despite being around recent highs. So I wouldn't put a corner past the USD, it looks feasible especially if the EUR breaks to the downside.

The GBP ripped a major over-extension with the EUR these past weeks and started this week with yet another major break out. It's consolidated quite a bit since it topped but the chart still looks quite strong. This rip can probably be attributed mostly to squeezing the JPY lower. Looks like a good entry price short to me, I'm going to add GBPJPY short to the pairs I am focusing on.

The JPY opened sideways but it looks like its' getting harder to press down on considering it snaps up violently after intra-day compressions. This leads me to believe the JPY is gearing up to turn bullish. Maybe the JPY will turn bullish with the Nikkei breaking out to new highs... But then again I don't really know how the currency value and index value correlate so that's just a shot in the dark.

AUD forced its' way up a bit after its' very significant sell off which dragged it down near support. Currently it is at a very nice price so this has definitely highlighted EURAUD short in my eyes. Still waiting on this reversal to fully realize so I continue to load a position.

CAD opened down and consolidated its' way near support, now it appears to be accumulating. Mod-term I still consider the CAD to be a strong currency to pair with the overbought EUR but it may not realize much of its' gains until well after the AUD does.


So this is it, my revised outlook on the pairs I am focusing on.

#1: EURAUD short long-term because it has the most profit potential. Long-term AUD simply seems like the choice currency. Stable economy with reliable growth partially thanks to Asian markets. An attractively priced currency that has performed exceptionally well since its' bottom when the recession hit. Meanwhile the EUR is due for another fiscal obstacle, if not the currency is overpriced with considerable downside potential regardless.

#2: My new long-term position GBPJPY. Although I think this reversal will take a lot of time to materialize I think there's a lot of potential downside. Also it looks like both currencies are gearing up to snap into a reverse considering the JPY is snapping back from compression and hte GBP is impressively over-extended.

Other than that nothings really changed in my perspective, EUR will drop with the USD in the mod-term, EUR more so. AUD and CAD will rally contrary to the EUR and USD reversing.

9 hours till the rest of the market opens, maybe TWTR will open strong and give the day-traders some play room.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Gold accumulation at mind blowing levels

IT may have opened down but it looks to be gaining strength.

I was anticipating it bouncing above prior support but I guess it's just too heavy to surprise people to that extent.

So here gold is with a bit of room above its' deepest support, accumulating at record levels close to its' most recent support; which it has been churning up consistently from.

My previous timescale for my gold expectations were not conservative enough but I do think we are in for a reversal if not this week this month. Looks ripe to load up for some major bounces.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Gold moves lower

IT may have opened down but it looks to be gaining strength.

I was anticipating it bouncing above prior support but I guess it's just too heavy to surprise people to that extent.

So here gold is with a bit of room above its' deepest support, accumulating at record levels close to its' most recent support; which it has been churning up consistently from.

My previous timescale for my gold expectations were not conservative enough but I do think we are in for a reversal if not this week this month. Looks ripe to load up for some major bounces.

This thing looks like it really wants to drop down to its' lowest support.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Gold snapped to the upside

This thing looks like it really wants to drop down to its' lowest support.

Gold has been trading mean lately. Looks like this is the bottom. Looks good for a big rally.